EXAMINING THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE ILLICIT DRUG MARKET-HOMICIDE RELATIONSHIP: A PARTIAL TEST OF THE THEORY OF CONTINGENT CAUSATION

Recently, Zimring and Hawkins (1997) have suggested that drug markets are a “contingent cause” of the increase in homicide rates. That is, where structural conditions known to produce violence are already in place, the drug distribution‐homicide link may be exacerbated. This analysis uses hierarchical linear modeling to investigate two key research questions: (1) Is within‐city variation in illicit drug market activity positively associated with within‐city variation in homicide rates during the 1984–1997 period? (2) Is the illicit drug market‐homicide association contingent on preexisting violence conducive socioeconomic conditions? Using three measures of drug market activity, analyses provide affirmative evidence on both questions. Theoretical and research implications of these findings are discussed.     

YOUNG GUNS: EXAMINING ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS OF JUVENILE FIREARM HOMICIDE RATES*

In recent years, youth firearm homicide has become a topic of great public concern in the United States. However, few macrolevel studies have examined intercity variation in juvenile firearm homicide. In the current study, we address this gap in the literature by examining whether intercity variation in firearm‐related homicide rates among black and white juveniles is explained by three prominent structural factors: concentrated disadvantage, racial inequality, and the youth illicit drug market activity. Our findings suggest partial support for the concentrated disadvantage and juvenile drug market explanations of homicide. However, contrary to expectations, these relationships are only significant in models for white juveniles.     

The unintended consequences of kingpin strategies: kidnap rates and the Arellano-Félix Organization

Kingpin strategies— the targeting of the top-levels of terrorist or drug trafficking organization hierarchies— has become a centerpiece of US and Mexican efforts to combat drug trafficking. This study addresses the unintended consequences of these strategies by assessing the impact of the arrest or deaths of Arellano Felix Organization leaders on kidnap and homicide levels from the late 1990’s to 2011. Based on the study, the arrest of important AFO “lieutenants” increased kidnap rates. Arrests or the deaths of organization “kingpins” did not result in increased homicides or kidnappings, if respected successors were ready to fill leadership vacuums. When leadership succession was in question, the arrest of “kingpins” did result in internecine conflict and thus increased homicide and kidnapping rates. Following internecine conflict, kidnap and homicide rates dropped, but not to pre-conflict levels. This is likely attributable to the use of kidnapping and homicide as a dispute resolution mechanism in the growing Tijuana consumer drug market.     

Women who kill in drug market situations

Recent studies of women and homicide have shown that lethal violence by women is a more complex phenomenon than merely self-defense against abusive partners. In this paper we examine cases of homicide by women who killed in drug market situations to explore the ways in which changing drug markets may have influenced women's involvement in lethal violence. From open-ended and semistructured interviews with 215 women sentenced to prison in New York State for homicide, we identified 19 women whose cases involved a drug market situation. Through qualitative analysis of the narratives offered by these women to explain their involvement in the killing, we found evidence that women will use violence, as will men, to protect or augment an economic interest in a drug market. From further analysis, however, we concluded that even in a clearly economic context in which women are able to acquire their own economic interest, some women will kill or participate in a killing in connection with their relationship with a male business or intimate partner. That is, women who kill in the economic context of a drug market may kill for economic reasons, but the specific circumstances of involvement in a drug market do not necessarily negate the significance of gender.     

Trajectories of non-intimate partner and intimate partner homicides, 1980-1999: The importance of rurality

Research had consistently shown that intimate partner homicide rates had been on a steady downward decline over the past two decades; however, a relatively recent movement in intimate partner homicide research had emphasized the need for further dissecting the aggregate trends by factors such as gender, race, victim-offender relationship, and same-sex partners. Taking this a step forward, this study utilized trajectory analysis for comparing and contrasting non-intimate partner homicide and intimate partner homicide rates over time in order to explore the importance of rurality when investigating intimate partner violence. Results of the analysis indicated that although intimate partner homicide rates had been declining over the 1980-1999 period for the majority of the 1,341 U.S. counties examined, there was evidence that rurality was significantly associated with an increased likelihood of assignment to a non-declining intimate partner homicide trajectory. In light of the findings, the authors also consider how these results can direct future research on intimate partner violence in rural areas.     

Armed Americans: The impact of firearm availability on national homicide rates

This study examines the relationship between firearm availability and national homicide rates. The theoretical and empirical literatures are reviewed, and a cross-national two-stage least squares regression analysis is described. The relationship between a circa 1990 measure of firearm availability and the average 1990–1994 homicide rate is examined across 36 countries. Two-stage least squares regression, which controls for homicide's effect on firearm availability in addition to a number of other confounding factors, reveals a statistically significant positive effect of firearm availability on national homicide rates. The magnitude of the association is considerable. The observed relationship is found to be insensitive to sample composition. Results also indicate that homicide rates do not influence levels of firearm availability. The limitations of the study and avenues for future research are discussed.     

Drug and alcohol use as determinants of New York City homicide trends from 1990 to 1998

In this population-level study, we analyzed how well changes in drug and alcohol use among homicide victims explained declining homicide rates in New York City between 1990 and 1998. Victim demographics, cause of death, and toxicology were obtained for all homicide (N = 12573) and accidental death victims (N = 6351) between 1990 and 1998 from the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner of New York (OCME). The proportion of homicide and accident decedents positive for cocaine fell between 1990 and 1998 (13% and 9% respectively); the proportion of homicide and accident decedents positive for opiates and/or alcohol did not change significantly. Changing patterns of drug and alcohol use by homicide victims were comparable to changing patterns of drug and alcohol use in accident victims, suggesting that changes in drug and alcohol use among homicide victims between 1990 and 1998 cannot solely explain the decline in NYC homicide rates.     

Putting homicide followed by suicide in context: Do macro‐environmental characteristics impact the odds of committing suicide after homicide?*

Homicide followed by suicide remains an understudied phenomenon in the criminological literature. This is due, in part, to methodological and statistical limitations—much of the extant research includes small samples and has not kept pace with quantitative advances. Moreover, scholarship on homicide–suicide has been focused almost exclusively on individual risk factors, discounting contextual influences. In this study, we examine whether macro‐environmental characteristics affect the odds of suicide after a homicide. We use data on 24,373 homicide and homicide–suicide cases distributed across 3,019 cities and 48 U.S. states from the National Violent Death Reporting System to examine the direct effects of structural factors on the odds of suicide after a homicide; and whether structural characteristics condition the impact of the victim–offender relationship on the odds of homicide–suicide. Hierarchical logistic regression models indicate that macro‐level concentrated disadvantage decreases the odds of homicide–suicide. Furthermore, concentrated disadvantage attenuates the odds of suicide after the homicide of an intimate partner, child, family member, or friend, relative to the killing of a stranger. The findings reveal that researchers should account for the context in which homicide–suicide occurs; failure to do so may unintentionally discount a key correlate of homicide–suicide and artificially inflate the effects of the micro‐environment.     

Gender equity, traditional masculine culture, and female homicide victimization

Several prior studies of gender equity and female violent victimization showed a positive relationship between the two, with some scholars defining this as a backlash effect due to increasing gender equity in the context of conservative gender role expectations. This assertion was tested here under a more general set of theories about real and perceived threats to White male dominance in the United States that suggested that the positive relationship between gender equity and female victimization was conditioned by the strength of traditional masculine culture. Using cross-sectional data and employing a commonly tested baseline model to control for other structural covariates of homicide rates, variables were introduced to represent gender income equity and different components of traditional masculine culture. Results confirmed a positive cross-sectional relationship between gender income equality and White non-Hispanic female homicide victimization rates, but did not show the expected interaction effects, leading the authors to conclude that other structural or cultural factors were the source of the positive relationship.     

STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS AND RACIAL HOMICIDE PATTERNS: A LOOK AT THE MULTIPLE DISADVANTAGES IN URBAN AREAS*

This research examines the differential effects of structural conditions on race-specific victim and offender homicide rates in large U.S. cities in 1990. While structural theories of race relations and criminological explanations are reviewed, particular attention is given to those structural theories that highlight racial competition, economic and labor market opportunity, and racial segregation as essential for an examination of racially disaggregated homicide offending. The effects of these and other structural conditions are estimated for four racially distinct homicide offending models—black intraracial, white intraracial, black interracial, and white interracial homicides. The results suggest that the structural conditions that lead to race-specific victim and offender homicide rates differ significantly among the four models. Economic deprivation and local opportunity structures are found to influence significantly the rates of intraracial homicide offending, while racial inequality contributes solely to black interracial homicide rates. In addition, our findings indicate that blacks and whites face different economic and social realities related to economic deprivation and social isolation. The differential impact of these structural conditions and other labor market factors are discussed.     

POLICING,DRUGS, AND THE HOMICIDE DECLINE IN NEW YORK CITY IN THE 1990s*

This research reassesses the role of policing and drugs in the sharp homicide decline in New York City in the 1990s. Drawing on theoretical arguments about “broken windows” policing and lethal violence associated with the diffusion of crack cocaine, we estimate the effects of measures of misdemeanor arrests and cocaine prevalence on homicide rates with pooled, cross‐sectional time‐series data for 74 New York City precincts over the 1990–1999 period. The results of mixed regression models reveal a significant negative effect of changes in misdemeanor arrests and a significant positive effect of changes in cocaine prevalence on changes in total homicide rates. Additional analyses of homicide disaggregated by weapon indicate that the effects of misdemeanor arrests and cocaine prevalence emerge for gun‐related but not for non‐gun‐related homicides. Overall, the research generally supports influential interpretations of the homicide decline in New York City but also raises questions about underlying mechanisms that warrant more inquiry in future research.     

Imprisonment v. the death penalty as a deterrent to murder

In this investigation we examine the simultaneous deterrent effect of imprisonment and executions on homicide. Examination of the census years 1920 to 1960 shows the certainty of execution and homicide rates to be generally unrelated. Also contrary to the deterrence hypothesis, the significant negative bivariate relationship between the severity of prison sentence and homicide rates found here and in earlier investigations is shown to be a statistical artifact resulting from a failure to control for the effects of alternative legal sanctions and sociodemographic factors. While neither imprisonment nor executions are found to have a significant deterrent effect on homicide, attention is called to some limitations of this investigation and the need for additional research.     

Explaining the Effectiveness of Heroin-assisted Treatment on Crime Reductions

This study examines the relationship between heroin-assisted treatment versus methadone maintenance and the criminal activity of 1,015 individuals participating in a German model project. The main objective is to investigate how these treatments contribute to a decline of criminal behavior. The analyses are based upon self-reported criminal offence and police data on alleged criminals. Logistic regression is employed to explain the variance in the 12-month prevalence 1 year after program admission. The results clearly show a decline of criminal offences among participants receiving maintenance treatment; this decline was significantly greater in the heroin group with respect to property crimes and drug offences. The multivariate analysis reveals that the effects are due to a decrease of illegal drug use and absence from the drug scene.     

Immigration and the Changing Nature of Homicide in US Cities, 1980–2010

Objectives

Previous research has neglected to consider whether trends in immigration are related to changes in the nature of homicide. This is important because there is considerable variability in the temporal trends of homicide subtypes disaggregated by circumstance. In the current study, we address this issue by investigating whether within-city changes in immigration are related to temporal variations in rates of overall and circumstance-specific homicide for a sample of large US cities during the period between 1980 and 2010.

Methods

Fixed-effects negative binomial and two-stage least squares (2SLS) instrumental variable regression models are used to analyze data from 156 large US cities observed during the 1980–2010 period.

Results

Findings from the analyses suggest that temporal change in overall homicide and drug homicide rates are significantly related to changes in immigration. Specifically, increases in immigration are associated with declining rates for each of the preceding outcome measures. Moreover, for several of the homicide types, findings suggest that the effects of changes in immigration vary across places, with the largest negative associations appearing in cities that had relatively high initial (i.e., 1970) immigration levels.

Conclusions

There is support for the thesis that changes in immigration in recent decades are related to changes in rates of lethal violence. However, it appears that the relationship is contingent and varied, not general.     

A Move Toward Specificity: Examining Urban Disadvantage and Race-and Relationship-Specific Homicide Rates

The purpose of this research is to estimate the differential impact of structural conditions on race- and relationship-specific homicide rates for U.S. cities in 1990. The structural conditions commonly employed in race-specific homicide research are examined, such as job accessibility, economic deprivation, racial segregation, and racial inequality. Furthermore, four relationship categories of homicide—acquaintance, family, stranger, and intimate—are disaggregated by racial group. The detailed relationship-specific homicide rates are compared to a baseline homicide rate to determine whether structural factors associated with urban disadvantage similarly influence homicide rates across relationship types. The results indicate that differences emerge in the impact of structural conditions on homicides disaggregated by race- and relationship-specific categories. Theoretical explanations consistent with criminology and race-relations literature are discussed, as well as the potential benefits and implications for studies that pursue more meaningful and detailed classifications in homicide offending.     

STRUCTURAL FACTORS AND BLACK INTERRACIAL HOMICIDE: A NEW EXAMINATION OF THE CAUSAL PROCESS*

This study evaluates the assumption that deprivation among African Americans and racial inequality lead to black interracial homicide due to racial conflict and antagonism. Using refined race‐adjusted Supplemental Homicide Report data, Uniform Crime Report data and census data, we test an alternative hypothesis that draws on the macrostructural opportunity theory to assess and more accurately specify the relationship between structural characteristics and black interracial homicide. We find that first, the relationship between economic factors and black interracial homicide can be explained in large part by high rates of financially motivated crime such as robbery, and second, that economic factors are associated with financially motivated but not expressive black interracial killings. Analyses of black intraracial killings are performed for comparison purposes. Collectively, the findings suggest that conflict‐based explanations rooted in racial antagonism and frustration aggression may be premature.     

Job Access and Homicide Patterns in Chicago: An Analysis at Multiple Geographic Levels Based on Scale-Space Theory

Economists and criminologists have long tried to establish linkages between job markets and crime. Most prior research, however, was across large areas (e.g., states, metropolitan areas) or across time. This research focuses on examining the variation of job markets within a city (i.e., Chicago) and whether it is related to the spatial pattern of crime (i.e., homicide). The job market condition is measured by job accessibility, an index computed by a Geographic Information System (GIS) method. Multivariate regressions, controlling for other socioeconomic covariates, are used to analyze the relationship between job access and homicide rates. Considering problems with analysis of rare events such as homicide in small populations, this research constructs various levels of geographic areas from census tracts to generate more stable homicide rates with larger base populations. In particular, a spatial clustering method based on the scale-space theory is used to merge adjacent tracts of similar attributes into new geographic areas. The study shows an inverse relationship between job accessibility and homicide rates across census tracts and the newly-constructed geographic areas in Chicago.     

National case-control study of homicide offending and methamphetamine use

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between methamphetamine use and homicide. To carry out this study, data from the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse and Survey of Inmates in State and Federal Correctional Facilities were combined to create a case-control design. The main exposure measure is methamphetamine use and the main outcome measure is homicide. Results suggest that the odds of committing a homicide are nearly 9 times greater for an individual who uses methamphetamine. More importantly, the association between methamphetamine use and homicide persists even after adjusting for alternative drug use (i.e., alcohol, heroin, crack, cocaine, PCP, LSD), sex, race, income, age, marital status, previous arrests, military experience, and education level. Methamphetamine was the only drug use variable that was strongly correlated with homicide. These results support recent clinical studies that suggest methamphetamine use is different than other drug use in its effects on violence.     

The relationship between urbanisation and cross-national homicide rates: robustness across multiple estimation methods

Urbanisation has generally been found to be a non-significant predictor of homicide rates in cross-national studies. Despite this, there is strong theoretical support for the presence of a positive association between the two. The present study analyses data for up to 57 nations for the period 1993–2005 and examines the relationship between urbanisation and homicide using pooled ordinary least squares, feasible generalised least squares, panel-corrected standard errors, fixed-effects, and random-effects estimation. The results show that urbanisation is one of the strongest predictors of homicide in the cross-national context. This is consistent with the expected relationship according to modernisation theory and suggests that rapidly urbanising nations should be concerned with the unintended consequences of urbanisation.     

Neuropsychological and Criminological Features of Female Homicide Offenders

Few studies have examined life history and cognitive characteristics unique to female homicide offenders. Understanding these characteristics could aid in risk assessment for extreme violence in this group of offenders. The current study utilized t‐tests or chi‐square tests to compare 27 female and 81 male homicide offenders on psychiatric, neurologic, criminal, and cognitive characteristics. Additionally, we explored the role of abuse history in female offenders through Kruskal–Wallis or Fisher's exact tests. Results indicate that in comparison with male counterparts, females are more likely to have history of mood disorder, borderline personality disorder, and abuse. Cognitively, female homicide offenders exhibit circumscribed cognitive impairment in verbal abilities and perform similarly to male homicide offenders across most cognitive tasks. Within the female offender group, history of sexual abuse is associated with higher rates of impulsive homicide and poorer verbal abilities. These findings provide preliminary evidence for distinct factors associated with homicide in women.