Studying the reach of deterrence: Can deterrence theory help explain police misconduct?

This article reports the first perceptual deterrence study of a sample of police officers. The study investigated the influence of traditional deterrence considerations, extralegal sanctions, and impulsivity on the intention to commit several hypothesized acts of police misconduct. The results were largely consistent with perceptual deterrence findings from samples of college students, experienced offenders, and corporate managers. In particular, this study found that both legal and extralegal sanction threats potentially deter police misconduct. Further, it found that impulsivity diminished the deterrent influence of both sanction forms. The study also found that some of the effects of the explanatory variables depended on whether officers had prior punishment experience. The article discusses the implications of its findings for combating police misconduct and for deterrence research generally.     

An investigation into the differentiating characteristics between car key burglars and regular burglars

Car key burglary has recently become the focus of empirical investigation as offenders, no longer able to steal vehicles without first obtaining their keys, resort to "burgling" target properties. Research surrounding the modus operandi of these offenses is beginning to emerge; however, little attention has been paid to investigating the characteristics of car key burglary offenders. Challenging the assumption that car key burglary offenses are perpetrated by regular burglars, this study aims to differentiate between offenders. Logistic regression analysis of 110 car key and 110 regular burglary offenders revealed that car key burglars are more likely to have previous vehicle theft convictions and are also more likely to be detected on information supplied to the police than regular burglars. Regular burglars are more likely to have previous shoplifting convictions. It was concluded that car key burglars are a distinct sample of offenders and the implications of these findings are discussed.     

The challenge of cyber attack deterrence

National security planners have begun to look beyond reactive, tactical cyber defense to proactive, strategic cyber defense, which may include international military deterrence. The incredible power of nuclear weapons gave birth to deterrence, a military strategy in which the purpose of armies shifted from winning wars to preventing them. Although cyber attacks per se do not compare to a nuclear explosion, they do pose a serious and increasing threat to international security. Real-world examples suggest that cyber warfare will play a lead role in future international conflicts. This article examines the two deterrence strategies available to nation-states (denial and punishment) and their three basic requirements (capability, communication, and credibility) in the light of cyber warfare. It also explores whether the two most challenging aspects of cyber attacks – attribution and asymmetry – will make cyber attack deterrence an impossible task.     

Error minimization and deterrence in agency control

In the presented oversight model, in which a regulatory agency may collude with regulatees, a watchdog organization may scrutinize the agency’s decision-making and find evidence speaking for collusive behavior. Found evidence is of a specific, stochastic quality. Courts will overturn the administrative decision when the evidence presented in court exceeds a minimum quality standard set by the political principal. Lowering the quality standard increases the odds of finding evidence of sufficient quality and, hence, leads to increasing collusion deterrence and to a lower probability of acquitting collusive administrators (type I error), but also to a higher probability of convicting an innocent administrator (type II error). It is shown that, when welfare-maximization gives rise to an interior solution, the welfare-maximizing standard of evidence is lower than the one that merely minimizes the costs of legal errors without taking deterrence costs into account, but will imply incomplete deterrence. However, conditions can and will be identified under which both error cost minimization and complete deterrence coincide with welfare-maximization.     

Police patrol and the deterrence of crime

A nonrecursive model of the deterrent effect of police presence was formulated and tested for 26 cities. Victimization data were employed as measures of crime, unpublished FBI data on the number of police patrol units as the measure of levels of police presence, and data for 11 exogenous variables were derived from FBI and census reports. It was found that per capita, police are a positive function of rates of violent crime and that clearance rates are a positive function of police presence. However, some offenses that have traditionally been thought to be deterrable are not inversely related to clearance rates. The equations were re-estimated using official measures of crime and found to be more consistent with the deterrent hypothesis. It is suggested that official data may generate a spurious correlation. Finally, caution is suggested in consideration of alternative forms of police presence.     

Mere presence of informal guardians deters burglars: a virtual reality study

Journal of Experimental Criminology - This study investigates the deterrent effects of incremental levels of guardianship on residential burglary and assesses how burglars differ from non-burglars...     

Toward a quantitative typology of burglars: a latent profile analysis of career offenders

Burglary is a serious, costly, and prevalent crime but prior typologies of burglars are mostly speculative and based on qualitative data. Using a sample of 456 adult career criminals, the current study used latent profile analysis to construct a methodologically rigorous quantitative typology. Four classes of burglars emerged: young versatile, vagrant, drug-oriented, and sexual predators. All groups demonstrated significant involvement in varied forms of crime, but the sexual predator group was the most violent and had the most serious criminal careers. Connections to the criminal career literature are offered and suggestions for further empirical study of offender typologies are discussed.     

Plea bargaining and deterrence: An institutional approach

Previous economic analyses of plea bargaining have largely ignored its impact on the deterrence of crime. Instead, they have focused on the bargaining between a defendant and a prosecutor once a crime has been committed. This article remedies this deficiency by asking how the practice of plea bargaining influences the determination of criminal punishment and thereby the supply of crime by rational offenders. The key question examined is, how do the ex post objectives of prosecutors affect the ability of legislatures to implement criminal punishments aimed at achieving optimal deterrence? Various prosecutorial objectives are considered in answering this question.     

Perceptional foundations of deterrence: The case of prostitution

The authors conducted a survey to determine community perceptions about the certainty, celerity, and severity of punishment with regards to the crime of prostitution. A representative random sample of Mecklenburg County, which includes Charlotte, North Carolina, was taken and 850 individuals responded. The results revealed that (1) citizens perceive sanctions against prostitution violations as being applied only infrequently; (2) most respondents perceive the time from violation to arrest as being relatively short but slower as the offenders proceed through the system, and (3) the severity of punishment is not perceived as being harsh. The authors argue that the low likelihood of apprehension, both actual and perceived, plus the mild sanctions may partially account for prostitution’s continued survival.     

Correlates of deterrence: Problems of theory and method

A central methodological problem in ascertaining the correlates of deterrence is that there is no unambiguous method by which deterred persons can be identified. Assuming that the identification of a legal threat by persons who indicated that they have not committed a crime (the use of marijuana) is evidence of deterrence, this study differentiates deterred from undeterred persons based on a number of demographic variables. The results show that persons who were deterred from marijuana use by legal threats were indistinguishable on the basis of age, sex, race, marital status, and occupation from those who refrained from using marijuana for other reasons.     

Statistical measurement of the deterrence effect: A regression framework

When the dependent variable is a ratio, and its numerator also appears as the denominator of an explanatory variable, doubts exist with respect to the bias of the estimated effect. Although the problem arises in many contexts, it is posed here in the context of estimating the deterrence effect of punishment on crime. This is the context in which Logan (1978) suggests the method of “part-correlation.” By expressing this method in a regression framework, the results of the analysis of specification error are drawn upon to simplify Logan's procedure, proper measures are derived, and results are generalized. Finally, the effects of measurement errors are introduced and the bias examined.     

Saturated enforcement: The efficacy of deterrence and drunk driving

Deterrence theory generally finds support among studies focusing on changes in apprehension certainty, in punishment celerity, or in punishment severity. However, scientific evidence establishing a clear deterrent effect of criminal justice institutions on criminal behavior remains problematic partly because of measurement, design and/or experimental control difficulties. This study attempts to overcome some of these methodological difficulties by measuring deterrence in a drunk driving enforcement program in a small Wisconsin city. It demonstrates a statistically significant relationship between a carefully designed enforcement program and driver response measured by accident rates. This finding is contrary to some recent studies challenging the efficacy of enforcement efforts aimed at traffic accident reductions. A general discussion of deterrence and enforcement amplifies the findings and conclusions. A word of caution is added regarding the findings.     

Further findings on the deterrence question and strategies for future research

Findings for recent data (circa 1970) are consistent with previous purported tests of the deterrence doctrine. For each of seven types of crime there is an inverse relation among the states of the U.S. between the rate and the certainty of imprisonment, but there is no significant relation between the rate and severity of imprisonment (length of sentence served). Although the findings justify reconsideration of the deterrence doctrine, the utility of further tests is questionable without first restating the doctrine as a systematic theory, one that incorporates (inter alia) perceptual variables pertaining to punishment (e.g. perceived certainty of punishment). However, several empirical question should be contemplated prior to stating a deterrence theory; and conventional data (e.g. published statistics on imprisonment) can be used to answer some of those questions.