Examining the Sources of Variation in Risk for Recidivism

This research explores the correlates of desistance and recidivism among a modern cohort of men released from prison. Using eight years of follow‐up data, we estimate a series of multivariate models to differentiate offenders who recidivate in the short term from men who failed after an extended period or who do not return to criminal behavior at all. Consistent with research of this type, the odds of recidivism increased sharply after release and leveled off over time. In addition, younger men with more extensive criminal histories were the least likely to desist and failed early in the release period. The results also reveal heterogeneity in patterns of recidivism over the short and long term, and highlight the importance of post‐release context in understanding prisoner reentry.     

Mass Reentry,Neighborhood Context and Recidivism: Examining How the Distribution of Parolees Within and Across Neighborhoods Impacts Recidivism

Recent scholarship focuses on the role neighborhood context plays in reoffending. These studies lack an examination of how the size of the parolee population at the neighborhood-level impacts individual recidivism. We examine how the size and clustering of parolee populations within and across neighborhoods impacts individual-level recidivism. Using data from parolees returning to three Ohio cities from 2000 to 2009, we examine how concentrations of parolees in neighborhoods and in the surrounding neighborhoods impact the likelihood of reoffending. We also examine whether parolee clustering conditions the relationship between neighborhood-level characteristics and recidivism. Results show concentrated reentry increases recidivism, while parolees in stable neighborhoods are less likely to recidivate. Also, the positive effect of parolee concentration is tempered when parolees return to stable neighborhoods. These findings suggest that augmenting resources available in neighborhoods saturated by parolees, as well as bolstering residential stability in these same neighborhoods might reduce reoffending.     

Evaluating the Minnesota Comprehensive Offender Reentry Plan (MCORP): Results from a Randomized Experiment

Using a randomized experimental design, this study evaluated the effectiveness of the Minnesota Comprehensive Offender Reentry Plan (MCORP), an offender reentry pilot project implemented in 2008. In an effort to reduce recidivism, MCORP attempted to increase offender access to community services and programming by producing greater case management collaboration between caseworkers in prison and supervision agents in the community. The results showed that MCORP significantly improved employment rates, decreased homelessness, broadened offenders’ systems of social support, and increased the extent to which offenders participated in community support programming (mentoring, restorative justice services, and faith‐based programming). The findings further revealed that MCORP significantly reduced all three types of reoffending (rearrest, reconviction, and new offense reincarcerations) but did not have a significant impact on supervision revocations for technical violations. The evidence suggests that MCORP was effective in decreasing reoffending largely because it increased the extent to which offenders were employed, involved in community support programming, and able to develop systems of social support.     

SOCIAL ECOLOGY AND RECIDIVISM: IMPLICATIONS FOR PRISONER REENTRY*

Despite the marked increase in incarceration over the past 30 years and the fact that roughly two thirds of released offenders are rearrested within 3 years of release, we know little about how the social ecology of the areas to which offenders return may influence their recidivism or whether it disproportionately affects some groups more than others. Drawing on recent scholarship on prisoner reentry and macrolevel predictors of crime, this study examines a large sample of prisoners released to Florida communities to investigate how two dimensions of social ecology—resource deprivation and racial segregation—may independently, and in interaction with specific populations, influence recidivism. The findings suggest that ecology indeed is consequential for recidivism, and it differentially influences some groups more than others. We discuss these findings and their implications for theory, research, and policy.     

A randomized experiment of a prisoner reentry program: updated results from an evaluation of the Minnesota Comprehensive Offender Reentry Plan (MCORP)

Using a randomized experimental design, this study evaluated the effectiveness of the Minnesota Comprehensive Offender Reentry Plan (MCORP), a prisoner reentry pilot project implemented in 2008. In an effort to reduce recidivism, MCORP attempted to increase offender access to community services and programming by producing greater case management collaboration between caseworkers in prison and supervision agents in the community. Results from Cox regression models showed that MCORP significantly reduced four of the five recidivism measures examined, although the size of the reduction in hazard ratios was relatively modest (20–25%). The findings further suggested that MCORP reduced costs. Sensitivity analyses showed, however, that the cost avoidance estimates were not robust across all assumptions that were examined.     

Living Conditions,Social Exclusion and Recidivism Among Prison Inmates

Swedish drug policy has according to official declarations been successful. The picture has recently been challenged through rising drug use and rising drug related mortality. This development has taken place in spite of the restrictive Swedish policy with further penalization of drug consumption, increasing number of police officers working with drug crime and rising number of persons sentenced to prison for drug offences. The question to be explored here is then what strategies the Swedish Government has chosen in the light of the development and how these strategies should be explained. The analysis is based on central Government documents as well as statements from Government ministers, public authorities and voluntary organizations. The picture that emerges is a denial of the failure of the old Swedish model but at the same time an alarmist stand with demands for increases of resources for information, treatment and control. The strategies chosen can be derived from two central themes in Swedish drug debate: ‘a drug‐free society’ and ‘total rehabilitation’. The two in turn seem to be aspects of an underlying vision—the vision of the good and integrative welfare society.     

Employment After Prison: A Longitudinal Study of Former Prisoners

Finding sustained employment is an important component of the transition from prison to the community for exiting prisoners. Anecdotal reports from former prisoners indicate that most individuals experience great difficulties finding jobs after their release. However, little systematic information is available about the employment experiences of individuals released from prison or the characteristics of former prisoners who are successful in locating employment. Using a causal framework, this paper examines the employment experiences of a multi-state sample of former prisoners, and identifies the individual factors influencing the likelihood of employment after release from prison, using data gathered from interviews with prisoners before and at multiple times after release. Findings indicate that consistent work experience before incarceration, connection to employers before release, and conventional family relationships improve employment outcomes after release. Individuals who relapse to drug use quickly after release, have chronic physical or mental health problems, and are older or nonwhite are employed fewer months after a period of incarceration.     

Residential Location,Household Composition,and Recidivism: An Analysis by Gender

Although the challenges offenders face when returning home from prison have been well documented, much remains to be learned about the gendered patterns of reentry. This line of inquiry can be further refined by examining the unique effects of residential movement, housing location, and household composition on reentry trajectories. To address these questions, we use a sample of men and women released from prison in Missouri. Consistent with past research, men are more likely to fail overall, but women are more likely to be recommitted to prison for a technical violation. We find that community context had the largest effect in models of technical violations for the male sample. Similar community effects were not observed for the female sample. Family support was a strong protective factor for men and women. We discuss the policy implications of the study for prisoner reentry in general and the import for a gendered understanding of recidivism.     

Role-Taking and Recidivism: A Test of Differential Social Control Theory

This research measures group differences in recidivism before and after implementation of Megan’s Law. The pre–post study consists of a total of 550 male sex offenders released during the years 1990 and 2000, of which 250 offenders were released during 1990 and 1994 (i.e., the pre‐Megan’s Law group) and 300 offenders were released between 1995 and 2000 (i.e., the post‐Megan’s Law group). Offenders were released from a general population setting and a sex offender specific treatment facility. The main variables of concern include: (1) recidivism levels, (2) days to first re‐arrest, and (3) level of harm (i.e., number of sex offenses, violent offenses, and number of child victims). Statistical findings from chi‐square and survival analysis testing indicate significant group differences on levels of general recidivism; however, no significant differences were identified on measures of sex offense recidivism. Implications of these findings on sex offender specific policies are discussed.     

Examining the Effects of Community-Based Sanctions on Offender Recidivism

Offenders who violate their conditions of release (parole violators) pose a threat to public safety and a unique challenge for parole officials. Historically, parole officers have simply revoked the parole of these offenders and returned them to prison; however, increases in state correctional populations have forced many jurisdictions to experiment with sanctions administered by parole officers in the community. Community‐based sanctions are sanctions administered by parole officers as consequences for noncompliance with release conditions that are ultimately intended to reduce parole violators’ odds of recidivism. Yet, the effects of these types of sanctions are still relatively unknown. Drawing from perspectives on formal and informal social control, this study involved an examination of the effect of community‐based sanctions on parole violators’ odds of recidivism. Findings revealed that formal controls such as community‐based sanctions that were applied with certainty, severity, and in a swift manner along with informal controls such as measures of offenders’ stake in conformity had effects on parole violators’ odds of recidivism and time to recidivism.     

PAROLEE RECIDIVISM IN CALIFORNIA: THE EFFECT OF NEIGHBORHOOD CONTEXT AND SOCIAL SERVICE AGENCY CHARACTERISTICS*

We studied a sample of reentering parolees in California in 2005–2006 to examine whether the social structural context of the census tract, as well as nearby tracts, along with the relative physical closeness of social service providers affects serious recidivism resulting in imprisonment. We found that a 1 standard deviation increase in the presence of nearby social service providers (within 2 miles) decreases the likelihood of recidivating 41 percent and that this protective effect was particularly strong for African American parolees. This protective effect was diminished by overtaxed services (as proxied by potential demand). We found that higher concentrated disadvantage and social disorder (as measured by bar and liquor store capacity) in the tract increases recidivism and that higher levels of disadvantage and disorder in nearby tracts increase recidivism. A 1 standard deviation increase in the concentrated disadvantage of the focal neighborhood and the surrounding neighborhoods increases the likelihood of recidivating by 26 percent. The findings suggest that the social context to which parolees return (both in their own neighborhood and in nearby neighborhoods), as well as the geographic accessibility of social service agencies, play important roles in their successful reintegration.     

关于完善重新犯罪防治政策出台机制的思考

我国重新犯罪率呈上升趋势,且日益突出,制定科学有效的重新犯罪防治政策已经摆在我们面前。然而,在目前,支持重新犯罪防治政策制定的平台建设不尽人意。没有一个好的政策制定平台,不可能有好的政策出台。为提高重新犯罪防治政策制定的科学水准,国家应当考虑建设与完善下面平台：重新犯罪信息发布平台,智囊库。     

Local Social Ties and Willingness to Intervene: Textured Views Among Violent Urban Youth of Neighborhood Social Control Dynamics and Situations

Social control in urban neighborhoods has been studied for over a century in America, yet our understanding of the dynamic nature of social relations for exerting informal social control remains limited. The present study uses detailed reports from those most likely to be the target of local control efforts—violent youth in extremely disadvantaged urban locations—to re‐examine two features of this work: variations across different hypothetical scenarios widely used in this research, and connections between local ties and intervention type and likelihood in actual events. In‐depth qualitative interviews from 159 violent males aged 16–24 from two distressed New York City neighborhoods identify ways in which responses to commonly used scenarios of informal social control are age‐ and space‐graded. Reports on the transactional nature of social control in violent events show how local ties may undermine, rather than support, social control processes. It would appear that we need to consider more carefully general suggestions about local ties encouraging more informal social control, move to a more textured, multithreaded view of these connections, and incorporate age‐ and space‐graded dynamics into future studies of social control.     

Recidivism and the Availability of Health Care Organizations

Incarceration has been identified as a cause of poor health in current and formerly incarcerated individuals. Given the high likelihood of being in poor health when exiting prison, it is plausible that health impacts recidivism. Furthermore, ex-prisoners cluster in disadvantaged neighborhoods that are unlikely to have decent health services. Currently, there is insufficient research to examine this relationship at an ecological level. In this study, we investigate the relationship between the availability of health care organizations (HCOs) and their changes over time with neighborhood level recidivism, and how these relationships may be moderated by neighborhood disadvantage. We determine that the effect of HCOs on recidivism is indeed moderated through disadvantage: as disadvantage increases, the negative effect of losing significant amounts of HCOs on recidivism accelerates. Our results suggest that while increasing HCOs in disadvantaged neighborhoods is important, keeping HCOs in place is equally important for moderating negative neighborhood level outcomes.     

The Path of Least Desistance: Inmate Compliance and Recidivism

Scholars have speculated that inmate behavior may provide a signal about the probability of desistance. One such signal may be the successful avoidance of prison infractions or the cessation of them during the course of incarceration. Drawing on studies of prison socialization, recidivism, and desistance, we assess whether patterns of inmate misconduct throughout the course of incarceration provide insight into the likelihood of a successful transition back into society. Specifically, using data on a cohort of state prisoners, this study examines whether, after controlling for potential confounders, inmate misconduct trajectories predict recidivism. The analyses indicate both that unique misconduct trajectories can be identified and that these trajectories predict the probability of recidivism and desistance net of factors associated with recidivism. Results of the study lend support to scholarship on desistance and signaling, which emphasizes the salience of in-prison experiences for understanding reentry and, in particular, reoffending.     

Predicting Institutional Adjustment and Recidivism with the Psychopathy Checklist Factor Scores: A Meta-Analysis

This study explored the validity of the PCL/PCL-R factor scores in predicting institutional adjustment and recidivism in forensic clients and prison inmates. Forty-two studies in which institutional adjustment, release outcome (recidivism), or both were assessed prospectively with the PCL/PCL-R yielded 50 effect size estimates between the PCL/PCL-R factor scores and measures of institutional adjustment/recidivism. A meta-analysis of these findings disclosed that Factor 2 (Antisocial/Unstable Lifestyle) correlated moderately well with institutional adjustment and recidivism, whereas Factor 1 (Affective/Interpersonal Traits) was less robustly associated with these outcomes. Direct comparisons of the mean effect sizes attained by Factors 1 and 2 revealed that Factor 2 was significantly more predictive of total outcomes, general recidivism, violent recidivism, and outcomes from the 12 most methodological sound studies than Factor 1. There was less differentiation between Factors 1 and 2 on measures of institutional adjustment.     

Prison Population Inflation, Overcrowding and Recidivism the Situation in France

Before looking at the latest research into the recidivism of long-term prisoners which was carried out in France, a general overview is presented as well as an analysis of the change to the French prison population over the last 20 years; a study of the prison population inflation, based on the triptych: stock, flow, duration, as well as the evolution of penal and socio-demographic structures. To study the problem of prison overcrowding, the authors applied a statistical method called concentration analysis, first introduced into prison demography by Pierre Tournier in the work of the Council for Penological Co-operation (Council of Europe).