Official Crime Statistics and Survey Data: Comparing Trends of Youth Violence between 2000 and 2006 in Cities of the Czech Republic,Germany, Poland,Russia, and Slovenia

Based on official crime statistics, violent crimes of youths in Germany and Central and Eastern Europe had appeared to have increased considerably between 1990 and 2000. Survey data that can overcome limitations of police data and allow to compare crime trends across countries are rare. Based on self-report delinquency studies of 15 year old juveniles in 1998–2001 (SRD) and 2006 (ISRD-2) using compatible questionnaires in Germany and Central and Eastern Europe (partly in the same cities), trends of attitudes towards violence, of victimisation experiences and self-reported wanton and instrumental violence are compared cross-nationally. There is substantially less approval of violence in 2006 and a corresponding decrease of victimisation experiences and violent behaviour between 1999 and 2006. Official crime statistics show serious limitations. The results are discussed with respect to theories of modernisation and social change.     

AN ASSESSMENT OF RECENT TRENDS IN GIRLS' VIOLENCE USING DIVERSE LONGITUDINAL SOURCES: IS THE GENDER GAP CLOSING?

Applying Dickey-Fuller time series techniques in tandem with intuitive plot-displays, we examine recent trends in girls' violence and the gender gap as reported in four major sources of longitudinal data on youth violence. These sources are arrest statistics of the Uniform Crime Reports, victimization data of the National Crime Victimization Survey (where the victim identifies sex of offender) and self-reported violent behavior of Monitoring the Future and National Youth Risk Behavior Survey. We find that the rise in girls' violence over the past one to two decades as counted in police arrest data from the Uniform Crime Reports is not borne out in unofficial longitudinal sources. Several net-widening policy shifts have apparently escalated girls' arrest-proneness: first, stretching definitions of violence to include more minor incidents that girls in relative terms are more likely to commit; second, increased policing of violence between intimates and in private settings (for example, home, school) where girls' violence is more widespread; and, third, less tolerant family and societal attitudes toward juvenile females. These developments reflect both a growing intolerance of violence in the law and among the citizenry and an expanded application of preventive punishment and risk management strategies that emphasize early identification and enhanced formal control of problem individuals or groups, particularly problem youth.     

Discretion and the Sex Dyad: Exploring the Interactive Effects of Offender and Victim Sex on Reporting and Arrest of One-on-One Assaultive Crime

Gender has been hypothesized to affect how violent offenders are treated within the criminal justice system, but studies have tended to ignore the role of the victim in decision making. This study explores the interactive effects of offender and victim sex (i.e., the sex dyad) on reporting and arrest of one-on-one assaultive crime. Using data from the National Crime Victimization Survey and National Incident-Based Reporting System, findings show that male-on-female offenses are reported to police more often than other dyads, but female-on-male offenses result in more arrests. Meanwhile, female-on-female offenses result in fewer arrests, despite nonsignificant differences in reporting. Implications of findings for theory and future research on gender discretion are discussed.     

The Dark Figure of Online Property Crime: Is Cyberspace Hiding a Crime Wave?

A pronounced drop in crime, since the early 1990s, has encompassed every crime category tracked by the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports, including property crime. However, over the same period, the rates of online property crime (OPC) have been on the rise according to available evidence. We delineate the extent of our knowledge and data concerning cybercrime and identity theft and, using data from several nationally representative victimization surveys, offer an alternative view of property crime trends while pointing out the glaring gap in crime reporting and accounting in relation to the growing category of property crimes perpetrated online. In addition, we compare estimated costs of traditional property crime vs. OPC. Finally, we identify the main challenges for obtaining reliable data on OPC and discuss their implications, especially when applying the traditional methods of compiling crime statistics.     

POLICE PRODUCTIVITY AND CRIME RATES: 1973-1992*

According to the Uniform Crime Reports, violent crime rates increased dramatically over the past two decades. National Crime Victimization Survey data, on the other hand, indicate that the rates of violent crime remained relatively stable or dropped during this period. Which series provides a “correct” estimate of crime-rate trends is of more than academic interest. Highly publicized statistics on crime trends influence the public's concerns about crime and the decisions of policymakers both directly through their own perceptions of crime trends and indirectly through demands by the general public to control crime. This article compares these two major series on trends in violent crime rates in the United States for the period 1973–1992, with the goal of assessing the extent to which they measure the same underlying phenomenon: fluctuations in violent crime rates. The series are related (but not strongly). My conclusion, with some reservation, is that changes in law enforcement agencies rather than changes in the rates of violent crime incidents have created the upward trend in UCR violent crime rates during the past two decades.     

Self-Reported Delinquency in India: A Study of High School and Approved School Boys in Tamil Nadu

Findings from a self-reported delinquency survey among high school (N = 517) and institutionalized (N = 306) boys in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu are reported as part of a larger study designed to tap several aspects of delinquency phenomena in a developing society. The present research suggests that self-reported delinquency in India resembles that of juveniles in economically developed nations in several respects but differs from it in other ways. Specifically, as found elsewhere, self-reported delinquency in Tamil Nadu largely consists of minor property offenses or status-technical violations. Also, institutionalized boys (official delinquents) more frequently report delinquency involvement compared to high school boys. However, while a general inverse relationship was found between the SES rank of boys in various high schools and institutions and their reported delinquency involvement, it appears that this is not necessarily a direct linear relationship. In contrast to the findings of self-report research in developed nations, both the volume and frequency of self-admitted involvement in delinquency is comparatively low for Tamil Nadu boys, reflecting the comparatively low offense and arrest rates for juveniles reported in official crime data in India. The implications of these findings are discussed.     

REASSESSING TRENDS IN BLACK VIOLENT CRIME, 1980–2008: SORTING OUT THE “HISPANIC EFFECT” IN UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS ARRESTS,NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY OFFENDER ESTIMATES,AND U.S. PRISONER COUNTS*

Recent studies suggest a decline in the relative Black effect on violent crime in recent decades and interpret this decline as resulting from greater upward mobility among African Americans during the past several decades. However, other assessments of racial stratification in American society suggest at least as much durability as change in Black social mobility since the 1980s. Our goal is to assess how patterns of racial disparity in violent crime and incarceration have changed from 1980 to 2008. We argue that prior studies showing a shrinking Black share of violent crime might be in error because of reliance on White and Black national crime statistics that are confounded with Hispanic offenders, whose numbers have been increasing rapidly and whose violence rates are higher than that of Whites but lower than that of Blacks. Using 1980–2008 California and New York arrest data to adjust for this “Hispanic effect” in national Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) data, we assess whether the observed national decline in racial disparities in violent crime is an artifact of the growth in Hispanic populations and offenders. Results suggest that little overall change has occurred in the Black share of violent offending in both UCR and NCVS estimates during the last 30 years. In addition, racial imbalances in arrest versus incarceration levels across the index violent crimes are both small and comparably sized across the study period. We conclude by discussing the consistency of these findings with trends in economic and social integration of Blacks in American society during the past 50 years.     

Trends in victimization in schools and elsewhere, 1974–1981

Trends in the rate of victimizations of juveniles in three settings-schools, homes, and streets/parks-are examined monthly during the period 1974–1981. The relationship between in-school victimization rates and those occurring outside of school are analyzed with multivariate ARMA models informed by previous research on school victimization (Gottfredson and Gottfredson, 1985) and an importation perspective on the source of crime and victimization in institutions such as schools. Results indicate that the overall in-school victimization rate remained relatively stable during this period but that victimization rates of juveniles in other settings had significant effects on in-school victimizations. This suggests that underlying causes of victimization in general are important determinants of victimization in schools. These results are limited, however, as we examine these sources of victimization only indirectly via relationships among the different victimization rates in dynamic models and by the aggregate nature of the monthly data from the National Crime Survey.     

Official crime rates and victim surveys: An empirical comparison

This paper compares the Uniform Crime Reports (UCRs) to the results of the National Crime Survey (NCS). Six Part I offenses are used to form the basis for comparison across twenty-six large American cities. The two data sources are conceptually comparable. Empirically, the NCS reveals significantly higher rates for all offenses but auto theft. The two sources are compatible in that the UCR revealed the same distributional pattern as the NCS. Thus it was concluded that the UCR provides an accurate indicator of the relative occurrence of criminal acts.     

ESCAPING CRIME: THE EFFECTS OF DIRECT AND INDIRECT VICTIMIZATION ON MOVING*

This article investigates the impact of criminal victimization on household residential mobility. Existing research finds that direct experiences with crime influence mobility decisions, such that persons who suffer offenses near their homes are more likely to move. The current study extends this line of inquiry to consider whether indirect victimization that involves neighbors also stimulates moving. The analysis uses the National Crime Survey to estimate multilevel models that incorporate data from individual households and their spatially proximate neighbors. The results show that the link between direct victimization and moving continues to hold after controlling for neighborhood context. Indirect property victimization also leads to moving, with effects about equal in size to those of direct victimization. In contrast, no evidence is found that violent victimization that occurs in neighboring homes influences mobility, probably because most of these events are nonstranger violence that provokes less anxiety for neighbors.     

Relationship between reported crime rates and victimization survey results: An empirical and analytical study

Changes over time in crime as measured by reported crime counts and victimization survey counts are compared. A simple analysis is done using data from the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration's (LEAA) National Crime Survey for the years 1973, 1974, and 1975. These data are used to provide some understanding of why Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) results for these years show a much greater increase in crime than the LEAA/Census Bureau National Crime Surveys. A mathematical model is constructed to determine whether changes in the proportion of victimization reported to the authorities produces systematic bias in reported crime estimates of changes in actual victimizations. It is found that reported crime counts: (1) either exaggerate the amount of changes in victimizations or, (2) tend to misrepresent the direction of change in victimizations. It is highly likely that the amount of measurement error in changes in reported crime is significantly large in comparison with, if not larger than, the normal amounts of change in reported crime.     

Crime in Central and Eastern European Countries in the Enlarged Europe

An enlarged European Union not only means more territory and a greater population, but also more crimes and perpetrators of crimes. The European integration brings a new challenge to criminology. Comparison of crime statistics across countries is still one of the most difficult methodological problems in criminological analyses. Countries differ in respect of their penal systems and penal policies. Reporting and statistical systems are also different. How, then, can one compare crime between European countries? Can one say where it is safer or where the police work better? Can one determine what the manner of data collection should be so that it reflects reality accurately? This article concentrates on a representation of some trends of crime in Central and Eastern European countries. A main source of information about crime are official crime statistics collected according to the methodological rules worked out by the European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics. In the case of homicide, police data are confronted with vital statistics gathered by the World Heath Organization (WHO). The statistics on assault and robbery were compared, as much as possible, with the victimization data from the International Crime Victims Survey (ICVS). The socio-economic context of the crime, the main circumstances of the crime statistics, which affected the interpretation of the crime trends for Central and Eastern European Countries, is presented.     

Vulnerability,context, and fear of victimization: Exploring race and ethnicity

The importance of individual- and structural-level factors in predicting fear of victimization has been a source of many empirical evaluations. Theoretical predictors that influence these associations such as those outlined in the vulnerability thesis on fear of crime regularly find that age, race, and gender are predictors of fear. We explore whether adolescent populations, not yet having internalized vulnerability, are more influenced by contextual factors. To explore this hypothesis, we employ the National Crime Victimization Survey: School Crime Supplement to examine the role of vulnerability on fear of victimization at school. Logistic regression suggests that contextual school-level factors may mediate the relationship between fear of victimization at school and individual characteristics such as age, race, and gender.     

About the authors

In recent years, afterschool programs have received support for their potential to reduce juvenile delinquency and victimization. This support stems largely from reports based on police incident data indicating that juvenile crime and victimization peak during the afterschool hours. However, prior studies of victimization surveys and self‐reports of crime suggest that delinquency is more elevated during school hours. Utilizing self‐report data from a sample of juveniles participating in an evaluation of afterschool programs in Maryland, this study shows that juvenile victimization and delinquency peak during the school hours, while substance use peaks during the weekend. Disaggregating by offense reveals, however, that the more serious violent offenses are elevated during the afterschool hours, while simple assault offenses are most elevated during school hours. Implications for research and practice are discussed.     

Estimates of Repeat Victimization Using the National Crime Victimization Survey

Many crime victims experience multiple victimizations over time. Estimating the rate of repeat victimization from a longitudinal survey, however, is difficult because individuals often have missing data for some of the interviews. We use data from the 1996–98 U.S. National Crime Victimization Survey to explore potential effects of missing data on estimated rates of repeat violent victimizations in individuals. We introduce two algorithms for estimating repeat victimization rates, using logistic models to impute values for individuals who have partial data. These models are applied to estimate rates of repeat victimization for all violent crimes, and separately for crimes of domestic violence. Estimates show substantial sensitivity to the form of the model used.     

A longitudinal analysis of factors associated with reporting violent crimes to the police

The use of generalized estimating equations and time-series methods for fitting longitudinal models in the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is discussed, with reference to the relation between the reporting of a violent crime to the police and previous victimizations. Two longitudinal models are fit to NCVS data to predict the likelihood of reporting a violent crime to the police based on characteristics of the victim and the incident and based on previous victimization experiences. In both models, it is found that higher reporting rates are associated with positive results accruing from reporting previous victimization to the police.     

AN ANALYSIS OF SERIOUS CRIME BY YOUNG BLACK WOMEN*

This research focuses on a relatively unexplored phenomenon—black female juvenile offenders. Both theoretical and research work are weak or nonexistent regarding these offenders. This paper seeks to fill some of these gaps. In addition, this research effort draws on a source of data that has in frequently been adapted to study offenders, National Crime Survey (NCS) victimization data. Utilizing NCS data from 1973 through 1981, a comparative analysis of NCS rates of juvenile offenses by black females, black males, white females, and white males is presented and discussed. A number of propositions which are found in the literature regarding black female offenders are examined. Trends in offending by black females compared with trends for other age-race-sex subgroups are also presented and analyzed. Finally, some implications for future theoretical and research efforts are presented     

Structural Density and Criminal Victimization

This study examines the relationship between neighborhood structural density and rates of robbery and assault victimization. A theoretical framework linking defensible-space theory with an opportunity model of predatory criminal victimization suggests that structural density has a positive relationship with victimization, independent of victim characteristics. This perspective is compared to recent empirical and theoretical works that argue that denisty has either no relationship or an inverse relationship to crime. Hypotheses are tested with National Crime Survey victimization data for the years 1973 to 1978. The results support the major hypothesis and s h that structural density is positively related to rates of robbery and assault victimization, controlling for age, race, and sex of victim, and for extent of urbanization. Surprisingly, the positive relationship between structural density and victimization is stronger in rural areas than in urban areas.     

TIME TRENDS AND AGE TRENDS IN ARRESTS AND SELF-REPORTED ILLEGAL BEHAVIOR*

National estimates of time trends and age trends in self-reported illegal behavior in the United States are compared with corresponding figures for arrests. The self-report data are from Monitoring the Future, an annual national survey of high school seniors. The analysis of time trends covers 1975 through 1985 for a sample of over 3,000 respondents per year, studied at a constant age. The analysis of age trends covers ages 17 through 23 for samples of 300 to 1,200 per year. Both self-report and arrest measures reveal substantial declines in illegal behavior throughout this age span, with the exception of arrests for assault. Both methods also indicate that rates of assault increased from 1975 through 1985, a finding that has not previously been reported. Time trends for other offenses were erratic.     

REPORTING CRIME TO THE POLICE, 1973–2005: A MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF LONG-TERM TRENDS IN THE NATIONAL CRIME SURVEY (NCS) AND NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY (NCVS)*

Although many efforts have been made during the past several decades to increase the reporting of crime to the police, we know little about the nature of long-term crime-reporting trends. Most research in this area has been limited to specific crime types (e.g., sexual assault), or it has not taken into account possible changes in the characteristics of incidents associated with police notification. In this article, we advance knowledge about long-term trends in the reporting of crime to the police by using data from the National Crime Survey (NCS) and the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and methods that take into account possible changes in the factors that affect reporting at the individual and incident level as well as changes in survey methodology. Using data from 1973 to 2005, our findings show that significant increases have occurred in the likelihood of police notification for sexual assault crimes as well as for other forms of assault and that these increases were observed for violence against women and violence against men, stranger and nonstranger violence, as well as crimes experienced by members of different racial and ethnic groups. The reporting of property victimization (i.e., motor vehicle theft, burglary, and larceny) also increased across time. Overall, observed increases in crime reporting account for about half of the divergence between the NCVS and the Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) in the estimated magnitude of the 1990s crime decline—a result that highlights the need to corroborate findings about crime trends from multiple data sources.