Hot spots policing and crime prevention: A systematic review of randomized controlled trials

Crime scholars and practitioners have argued that police actions should be focused on high-risk crime places rather than spread thinly across the urban landscape. This review examines five randomized controlled trials of the effects of concentrating police enforcement efforts on crime hot spots. The findings of these evaluations suggest that focused police actions can prevent crime and disorder in crime hot spots. A meta-analysis of the effect sizes from the five experiments reveals a statistically significant mean effect size for hot spots policing interventions; this suggests overall reductions in citizen calls for service in the treatment hot spots relative to the control hot spots. These studies also suggest that focused police actions at specific locations do not necessarily result in crime displacement. Although these evaluations reveal that these programs work in preventing crime, additional research is needed to unravel other important policy-relevant issues such as community reaction to focused police enforcement efforts.     

How Much Time Should the Police Spend at Crime Hot Spots? Answers from a Police Agency Directed Randomized Field Trial in Sacramento,California

Hot spots policing has been shown to be an effective strategy for reducing crime across a number of rigorous evaluations, but despite this strong body of research, there still exist gaps in our knowledge of how officers can best respond to hot spots. We report on a randomized experiment in Sacramento, California that begins to address these gaps by testing the recommendation from prior research that police officers randomly rotate between hot spots, spending about 15?min patrolling in each. Our results suggest significant overall declines in both calls for service and crime incidents in the treatment hot spots relative to the controls. Additionally, the study was carried out primarily by the Sacramento Police Department without any outside funding. In an era of limited economic resources for policing, this experiment suggests a model by which police agencies can take ownership of science and oversee the implementation and evaluation of evidence-based interventions.     

CAN HOT SPOTS POLICING REDUCE CRIME IN URBAN AREAS? AN AGENT‐BASED SIMULATION*

Over the past two decades, there has been a growing consensus among researchers that hot spots policing is an effective strategy to prevent crime. Although strong evidence exists that hot spots policing will reduce crime at hot spots without immediate spatial displacement, we know little about its possible jurisdictional or large‐area impacts. We cannot isolate such effects in previous experiments because they (appropriately) compare treatment and control hot spots within large urban communities, thus, confounding estimates of area‐wide impacts. An agent‐based model is used to estimate area‐wide impacts of hot spots policing on street robbery. We test two implementations of hot spots policing (representing different levels of resource allocation) in a simulated borough of a city, and we compare them with two control conditions, one model with constant random patrol and another with no police officers. Our models estimate the short‐ and long‐term impacts on large‐area robbery levels of these different schemes of policing resources. These experiments reveal statistically significant effects for hot spots policing beyond both a random patrol model and a landscape without police. These simulations suggest that wider application of hot spots policing can have significant impacts on overall levels of crime in urban areas.     

The point break effect: an examination of surf,crime, and transitory opportunities

Opportunity theories of crime suggest that crime is highly specific and concentrated in time and space. Using these theories as a framework, this paper seeks to examine the transitory nature of crime. This hypothesis was tested using data from a coastal city in California to examine the relationship between surf conditions (measured at five daily time points) and number of crime incidents (n = 16,075). Crime totals were aggregated at the street segment level (n = 4551) for each day in 2011. These data were modeled using a series of panel negative binomial models, clustered by census block group. The findings suggest that surf conditions had an effect on the likelihood of crime incidents, but these effects were time specific. Favorable surf conditions were associated with increases in crime only between 2:30 pm and 5:29 pm. Additionally, locations closer to surf spots were associated with more crime, relative to locations farther away. Closer examination of micro-geographies aids in understanding how systematic shifts in routine activities affect the frequency and location of crime, and allows crime prevention to be more specialized and efficient. Adding to the extant understanding of hot times and opportunity structures will enable more effective allocation of resources and predictive policing efforts.     

DOES CRIME JUST MOVE AROUND THE CORNER? A CONTROLLED STUDY OF SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT AND DIFFUSION OF CRIME CONTROL BENEFITS*

Recent studies point to the potential theoretical and practical benefits of focusing police resources on crime hot spots. However, many scholars have noted that such approaches risk displacing crime or disorder to other places where programs are not in place. Although much attention has been paid to the idea of displacement, methodological problems associated with measuring it have often been overlooked. We try to fill these gaps in measurement and understanding of displacement and the related phenomenon of diffusion of crime control benefits. Our main focus is on immediate spatial displacement or diffusion of crime to areas near the targeted sites of an intervention. Do focused crime prevention efforts at places simply result in a movement of offenders to areas nearby targeted sites—“do they simply move crime around the corner”? Or, conversely, will a crime prevention effort focusing on specific places lead to improvement in areas nearby—what has come to be termed a diffusion of crime control benefits? Our data are drawn from a controlled study of displacement and diffusion in Jersey City, New Jersey. Two sites with substantial street‐level crime and disorder were targeted and carefully monitored during an experimental period. Two neighboring areas were selected as “catchment areas” from which to assess immediate spatial displacement or diffusion. Intensive police interventions were applied to each target site but not to the catchment areas. More than 6,000 20‐minute social observations were conducted in the target and catchment areas. They were supplemented by interviews and ethnographic field observations. Our findings indicate that, at least for crime markets involving drugs and prostitution, crime does not simply move around the corner. Indeed, this study supports the position that the most likely outcome of such focused crime prevention efforts is a diffusion of crime control benefits to nearby areas.     

The effect of community policing on fear and crime reduction,police legitimacy and job satisfaction: an empirical review of the evidence

Since the 1970s, community policing strategies or the language thereof have been purportedly initiated by a number of police departments nationwide to address notable issues such as crime, neighborhood disorder, and fear of crime. This policing philosophy has received considerable attention and support among scholars, police administrators, and criminal justice practitioners. This article synthesizes the available empirical evidence on the effectiveness of community policing initiatives using a variety of outcome measures. An overview of community policing is first provided with particular attention paid to its essence and objectives. Prior studies that have analyzed community policing effectiveness are then reviewed and assessed in terms of their methodological rigor and scientific merit. A discussion and future research considerations are presented to conclude.     

Unreported crimes,public dissatisfaction of police,and observed police misconduct in the Volgograd region,Russia: A research note

The paper examines the issue of widespread underreporting of crimes in the Volgograd region of Russia. The factors of public satisfaction with police, prior observed police misconduct, type of crime, and victim’s demographics are used to explain a victim’s decision to report crimes to the police. The research is based on a representative sample of Russian citizens conducted over a 9 year period in the Volgograd region (1998–2007) with a sample size of 1332 cases. The study concludes that prior observed police misconduct, especially the falsification of documents, is the strongest predictor of victims’ decisions to report crimes. The research holds critical implications for the ongoing reform of Russian police.     

Policing Intimate Partner Violence in Rural Areas and Small Towns: Policies,Practices, and Perceptions

The extant literature has given only limited consideration to the adoption of intimate partner violence policies and procedures on the part of police organizations, particularly in rural areas and small towns. Using survey data from police agencies in the southern regions of Illinois, this study found that although policies were nearly universal, specific elements varied. Agencies relied heavily on conferences and other departments in formulating their policies, making less use of recommendations from professional associations or the salient literature. The findings suggest variation in how intimate partner violence is perceived and policed in rural areas and small towns while highlighting some of the challenges agencies encounter in addressing this offense within their jurisdictions.     

Police Misconduct,Media Coverage,and Public Perceptions of Racial Profiling: An Experiment

The purpose of this study was: (1) to assess the impact of an incident of racial profiling on residents’ attitudes about profiling; and (2) to examine the effects of exposure to a video clip of deliberation about the incident on residents’ beliefs about the causes of profiling. All residents, White and minority, were less likely to believe that Chicago police officers engaged in profiling after the incident. These findings suggest that attitudes about the prevalence of racial profiling are susceptible to the manner in which the media construct incidents of police misconduct. Exposure to the video clip was not related to differences in residents’ beliefs about the causes of profiling, but was related to differences in perceptions of the dangerousness of traffic stops. The findings highlight the need for more research on how media constructions of police misconduct influence attitudes about profiling and impact community–police relations.     

Claims of amnesia for criminal offenses: psychopathology, substance abuse, and malingering

The forensic psychiatric examiner often encounters defendants who deny memory for their offense. Past research proposes a variety of factors to account for offense amnesia. To date there have been few systematic studies of offense amnesia in relation to psychiatric diagnosis, either alone or in combination with other known factors such as substance use and malingering. We studied 53 pretrial felony defendants who had been referred for psychiatric examination; 40% claimed amnesia for their offense. Examinees with psychotic disorders in general, and schizophrenia in particular, were relatively less likely to claim amnesia than were examinees with other diagnoses. Substance use at the time of the offense and associated substance use disorder diagnoses were positively associated with offense amnesia. Malingering diagnosed by general clinical criteria was a poor predictor of amnesia claims. These data suggests that two prominent reasons for referral for forensic psychiatric evaluation include the presence of psychotic symptoms and claims of amnesia for the offense.     

The myth of success: the emergence and maintenance of a specialized gang unit in Stockholm,Sweden

Street gangs and organized crime groups pose a unique challenge to police departments across the globe. Given their penchant for public displays of affiliation through well-recognized signs and symbols, their presence is often associated with media attention and public scrutiny, which threatens the legitimacy of the police and creates added pressure to generate a specific and public response to the threat these groups pose. The current study documents how the Stockholm County, Sweden, police developed and maintained an anti-gang operation in response to an emerging gang problem. While police officials labeled the anti-gang initiative a success in the news media, analyses of prosecution statistics and internal police documents demonstrate a less than ideal effect of this operation. Potential reasons for the discrepancy in public pronouncements of programmatic success relative to evaluation of official data are discussed.     

The maturity model in practice: chaos,reaction, evolution,and inclusion in law enforcement analytic models

This article discusses the analytic maturity model that was developed by the Vancouver Police Department. The maturity model was developed to self-asses the agency’s analytic process and determine to what degree it was operating. The article explores the various stages of the analytic model and applies them to the Royal Canadian Mounted Police and FUSION CENTERS in an attempt to show how the maturity model can be utilized by other agencies as well in self-assessing their analytic process. The article concludes by suggesting best practices which are to be utilized in conjunction with the maturity model.     

The Relationship Between Crime and Stop,Question, and Frisk Rates in New York City Neighborhoods

The current study builds on prior research in an analysis of the relationship between monthly violent and property crime rates in New York City census tracks and the New York City Police Department’s highly contentious stop, question, and frisk (SQF) policy. We find that higher doses of SQF are associated with small crime reductions generally and specific crime reductions for stops of blacks, Hispanics, and whites. But the way the policy was implemented precludes strong causal conclusions. Now that a federal court has intervened and SQF is undergoing change, the court monitor, New York Police Department, and city officials should partner with researchers in experimental evaluations to determine the optimal mix and dosage of enforcement strategies that safeguard the rights and liberties of citizens while enhancing public safety.     

Small Screens and Big Streets: A Comparison of Women Police Officers on Primetime Crime Shows and in U.S. Police Departments, 1950 to 2008

This article utilizes a longitudinal approach to assess the visibility of women as police officers in primetime crime shows from 1950 to 2008 and compares these numbers for television to actual data on women who work as police officers in the United States. We find that as expected, annual labor force data and crime show data both indicate increases in the number of minorities and women working in the criminal justice system over time. Given the robust literature on the general underrepresentation of women on television, however, we did not expect to uncover that both White and minority women are overrepresented as police officers on television every year compared to the occupational reality. Implications of the findings are discussed.     

Foot Patrol in Violent Crime Hot Spots: The Longitudinal Impact of Deterrence and Posttreatment Effects of Displacement

This study revisited the Philadelphia Foot Patrol Experiment and explored the longitudinal deterrent effects of foot patrol in violent crime hot spots using Sherman's (1990) concepts of initial and residual deterrence decay as a theoretical framework. It also explored whether the displacement uncovered during the initial evaluation decayed after the experiment ended. Multilevel growth curve models revealed that beats staffed for 22 weeks had a decaying deterrent effect during the course of the experiment, whereas those staffed for 12 weeks did not. None of the beats had residual deterrence effects relative to the control areas. The displacement uncovered had decayed during the 3 months after the experiment, and it is theoretically plausible that previously displaced offenders returned to the original target areas causing inverse displacement. These results are discussed in the context of Durlauf and Nagin's (2011) recent proposal that prison sentences should be shortened, mandatory minimum statutes repealed, and the cost savings generated by these policy changes shifted into policing budgets to convey more effectively the certainty of detection. It is concluded that if Durlauf and Nagin's proposal is to succeed, then more holistic policing strategies would likely be necessary. Foot patrol as a specific policing tactic seems to fit nicely into a variety of policing paradigms, and suggestions for incorporating them to move beyond strictly enforcement‐based responses are presented.     

Decision-Making in court: Observing the sentencing of men and women

Abstract

Using systematic observation together with an analysis of the relevant court and criminal records this research examined the processing and sentencing of a small number of male and female defendants in an English magistrates' court. The findings indicate that sentencing was indirectly affected by a defendant's sex and directly affected by at least one aspect of a defendant's demeanour. These results provide support for the view that combining systematic observation with an analysis of court records offers a more effective means of investigating the differential treatment of male and female defendants than either unsystematic observational studies or the analysis of court records alone.     

Police Officers on Drug Corners in Philadelphia,Drug Crime,and Violent Crime: Intended,Diffusion, and Displacement Impacts

On May 1, 2002, the Philadelphia Police Department launched Operation Safe Streets, stationing officers at 214 of the highest drug activity locations in the city 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Interrupted time series (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) models on weekly data isolated citywide and local program impacts on all violent crimes, murder, and reported drug crimes. Results showed no significant impacts on citywide weekly counts for drug crimes, homicides, or all violent crimes. Geographically focused analyses showed significant localized intervention impacts for both violent and drug crimes. Analyses of high‐drug‐activity non‐intervention sites suggest: the program impacts seen were not an artifact of history or local history; significant spatial diffusion of preventive benefits for violent crime; and probably significant spatial displacement for drug crime. Stationary targeted drug‐enforcement interventions like Operation Safe Streets may differentially affect the locational selection processes behind violent crime versus drug crime.