The Relationship Between Crime Reporting and Police: Implications for the Use of Uniform Crime Reports

Empirical studies that use reported crime data to evaluate policies for reducing crime will understate the true effectiveness of these policies if crime reporting/recording behavior is also affected by the policies. For instance, when the size of the police force increases, changes in the perceived likelihood that a crime will be solved may lead a higher fraction of victimizations to be reported to the police. In this paper, three data sets are employed to measure the magnitude of this reporting bias. While each of these analyses is subject to individual criticisms, all of the approaches yield similar estimates. Reporting bias appears to be present but relatively small in magnitude: each additional officer is associated with an increase of roughly five Index crimes that previously would have gone unreported. Taking reporting bias into account makes the hiring of additional police substantially more attractive from a cost–benefit perspective but cannot explain the frequent inability of past studies to uncover a systematic negative relationship between the size of the police force and crime rates.     

犯罪网络分析:社会网络分析在有组织犯罪研究中的应用

在刑事司法领域所使用的"网络"(networks)一词通常是指犯罪组织。一个犯罪网络首先也是一个社会网络,社会网络分析是对社会关系结构及其属性加以分析的一套规范和方法。它主要分析的是不同社会单位(个体、群体或社会)所构成的关系的结构及其属性。自美国"9.11事件"以来,世界各国政府、学者、媒体逐渐认识到社会网络分析在有组织犯罪防控研究中的重要作用,纷纷使用社会网络分析方法对恐怖主义犯罪等有组织犯罪进行犯罪网络分析、研究,通过解构犯罪组织,发现犯罪成员体系、结构特征与行动目标,从而对有组织犯罪进行有效预防和打击。我国应充分认识社会网络分析在现代有组织犯罪防控研究中的重要价值,全面了解国外有关理论与应用发展,积极采取政府资助项目研发与直接设立研究机构等多种手段,促进犯罪网络分析理论与方法在我国的迅速发展。     

男性罪犯人格、社会支持和人身危险性关系的研究

采用问卷法,对在押的198名男性犯人的人格、社会支持与人身危险}生的关系进行研究,结果发现：（1）客观支持、主观支持、对支持的利用度和人身危险性之间存在着显著的相互关联;（2）财产型罪犯的人身危险性要显著高于暴力型、性犯罪和其他类型的罪犯;（3）有前科的罪犯的人身危险性显著高于无前科的罪犯,有前科的罪犯在客观支持和对支持的利用度上的得分均显著低于无前科的罪犯;（4）罪犯的主观支持、对支持的利用度、神经质和精神质对不同犯罪类型的罪犯的人身危险性有不同预测力。     

犯罪本质论——一种重新解说的社会危害性理论

近年来 ,我国有学者主张用法益侵害说取代社会危害性说。这种观点是值得商榷的。在德国和日本的刑法理论中 ,法益侵害并不是一个明确统一的概念 ,而是一个争议颇多的概念。法益侵害说只是在名称上取代了权利侵害说 ,但并没有解决权利侵害说所面临的问题。这种取代并不成功。在我国刑法学界 ,用法益侵害说取代社会危害性说的作法是在重复法益侵害说取代权利侵害说的老路。我国传统的主观与客观相统一的社会危害性说的基本方向是正确的 ,但没有解决如何把主观和客观统一起来的问题。其实 ,主观与客观相统一应该统一于行为的客观方面 ,只有表现为客观危害行为的主观心态才能给社会造成危害。这种客观危害既包括犯罪行为给被害人造成的直接危害 ,也包括给社会带来的犯罪预防成本和处置犯罪的诉讼成本。因此 ,在本质上 ,犯罪是以一定方式或样态给被害人造成直接损害的、给社会带来犯罪预防成本的并需要动用刑罚资源加以处置的行为。     

Testing Theory and the Analysis of Time Series Data

Although the relationship between unemployment and crime has been a longstanding interest in criminology, there is little agreement about appropriate models for analyzing this relationship. David Greenberg's (this issue) discussion highlights two issues that raise questions about recent research on the unemployment–crime relationship. First, he extends the work of Hale and Sabbagh (1991) and argues that cointegration methods should be used instead of first-differenced regression models to analyze unemployment and crime time series data. Second, he argues that previous attempts to test his strain theory linking unemployment to the age distribution of crime rely on flawed hypotheses, inappropriate data, and faulty measurement. In this paper, I address both of Greenberg's claims. I begin with a discussion of the relative utility of cointegration analysis and of first-differenced regression models for the analysis of the unemployment–crime relationship, focusing on the link between theory and statistical model. I then discuss the possibility of ever testing and falsifying Greenberg's strain theory.     

转型期见义勇为英雄的社会支持现状及原因分析

转型期见义勇为英雄的社会支持不仅事关见义勇为英雄本身的生存和发展,而且还关系到社会主义思想道德建设的成效。本文以社会支持理论为视角,总结梳理了转型期见义勇为英雄的社会支持现状,分析了目前出现这一现状的原因,旨在对构建转型期见义勇为英雄的社会支持体系有所启示。     

Profiles of Victimized Women Among the Child Welfare Population: Implications for Targeted Child Welfare Policy and Practices

Despite the call to address domestic violence along with child maltreatment, little information exists to guide services for victimized women involved with child welfare. Research shows that victimized women contend with multiple problems stemming from violent victimization. Unfortunately less is known about combinations of needs and resources among victimized women, especially for those involved with child welfare. Through an examination of needs and resources among families with child maltreatment and domestic violence, we aimed to help address this knowledge gap. Needs and resources among 1,229 victimized caregivers were examined using the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-being (NSCAW). Using latent class analysis, four distinct multivariate profiles of needs and resources among victimized caregivers were identified. Significant differences were found among the profile groups in the family violence they experienced in the 18 months following child welfare investigations. Based on these findings, we discuss implications for tailored practices to enhance the safety of victimized caregivers involved with child welfare. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 9th Annual Conference of the Society for Social Work and Research, Miami, Florida in January 2005.     

Violent Crime in the United States of America: A Time-Series Analysis Between 1960–2000

This paper empirically assesses the effects of socio-economic and demographic variables on violent crime in the United States. Using national-level time-series data over the period 1960–2000, an unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model was estimated for overall violent crime, murder, rape and assault. The results indicate that there is no long-run relationship among the examined variables, but significant short-run relationships hold. Imprisonment growth, income inequality, alcohol consumption, and racial composition of the male youth population are shown to influence the short-run behaviour of violent crime.     

罪刑关系的立体考察:罪刑关系的相关属性

罪刑关系是刑法本体论的一个极为重要的问题。在我们深入考察罪刑关系的相关属性后,我们将发现罪刑关系本来是一种立体关系而非直线关系。罪刑关系的相关属性包括客观性与主观性、强制性与宽和性、静止性和动态性、一般性与个别性,而这些属性正是在对立统一之中生成了罪刑关系的立体性。罪刑关系的立体性把握对于罪刑关系理论的丰富和罪刑关系的刑法实践都有着极其重要的意义。     

A Multilevel Analysis of the Vulnerability,Disorder, and Social Integration Models of Fear of Crime

The current research tests three conceptual models designed to explain citizens’ fear of crime—vulnerability, disorder, and social integration. These models are assessed for differential impact across the cognitive and affective dimensions of fear of crime. The analysis reported here considers the consecutive and simultaneous influence of individual- and city-level factors using multilevel modeling techniques. Recently collected survey data for 2,599 citizens nested within 21 cities across Washington State provide the empirical evidence for the analysis. Results indicate that the disorder model is best able to explain variation in both the cognitive and affective dimensions of citizens’ fear of crime across cities. The vulnerability and social integration models explain significantly less variation. Further, the vulnerability model lacks directional consistency across the observed dimensions of fear. Societal implications of the research findings are discussed.

Crime Scene Behaviors and Characteristics of Offenders with Mental Illness: A Latent Class Analysis

The current study aimed to identify distinct types of crime scene behaviors based on the criminal planning and motivation of offenders with mental illness in South Korea. Furthermore, our study examined the relationships between the identified types of crime scene behaviors in terms of the offenders’ sociodemographic characteristics, modus operandi, and types of mental illness. Utilizing latent class analysis, the associations between crime scene behavior types and offender characteristics such as demographic factors, crime scene actions, and criminal information were empirically investigated. In particular, based on a sample obtained from a national police database of offenses committed between 2006 and 2014, four offense groups were identified: (i) instrumental–planned, (ii) instrumental–unplanned, (iii) expressive–unplanned, and (iv) hybrid. Additionally, significant relationships were found between offense styles and offender characteristics as well as criminal backgrounds. The findings suggest that mental disorders influence the types of actions exhibited by offenders during the commission of their crime. The results are discussed in terms of their theoretical and practical utility to criminal investigation.     

Understanding the Relationship Between Relative Group Size and Hate Crime Rates: Linking Methods with Concepts

Abstract

In recent studies, Hipp et al. caution that the selection of the appropriate denominator in computing the rate of intra- and inter-group interactions is consequential for key findings. The present study builds on this work and examines whether adjusting for the structural opportunities for any type of interaction affects the observed relationship between hate crime rates and minority group size. We go beyond prior research by computing distinctive measures of anti-Black hate crime rates across US counties circa 2000. Our findings offer support for the power-differential hypothesis, revealing a negative effect of minority population size on crime motivated by bias. These results also underline the importance of the procedure developed by Hipp et al., showing that that the selection of the “baseline” for the computation of hate crime rates is critical for understanding the relationship between minority group size and crime motivated by bias.     

Reassessing the Cross-National Relationship Between Income Inequality and Homicide Rates: Implications of Data Quality Control in the Measurement of Income Distribution

A significant positive relationship between income inequality and homicide rates has been found in a large number of cross-sectional studies and a few longitudinal analyses; a theoretically interesting interaction effect between income inequality and social welfare has also been found. For the most part researchers have been willing to use generous quality criteria in collecting income-distribution data, to maximize sample size and thereby enhance statistical power and representativeness. In the present paper we use a recently developed data set with explicit quality ratings for the income-distribution data, which permits systematic assessment of the consequences of relying on income-distribution measures of varying quality in examining the inequality-homicide relationship. Our analyses reveal that the income inequality-homicide relationship is remarkably robust in cross-sectional analyses. Regardless of the quality of income-distribution data, we observe significant positive effects of the Gini coefficient on homicide rates in cross-sectional multivariate models. Consistent results are also observed when an interaction term for income inequality and decommodification is examined. The results of longitudinal analyses differ; we observe a significant positive effect of changes in inequality on changes in homicide rates only when income-distribution measures of low quality are used.     

Understanding the Structure of a Large Heroin Distribution Network: A Quantitative Analysis of Qualitative Data

An analysis is reported of 2,408 wiretap conversations gathered in the course of prosecuting a heroin dealing organization in New York City in the 1990s. The five-step analysis, which included a social network analysis of phone contacts, revealed a large, loosely structured group of 294 individuals, most of whom had very limited contacts with others in the group. The group’s active core comprised 38 individuals with extended contacts, little status differentiation and some task specialization. A smaller more tightly connected group of 22 individuals was somewhat independent of the remainder of the core and appeared to constitute a “communal business”. The existence was not confirmed of the large criminal conspiracy described by the prosecution that operated at all levels of trafficking and dealing, from wholesale distribution to street sales. Rather, it appeared that the 294 individuals comprised one segment of the heroin market in the city. However, the discrepancy could be due to the fact that the prosecution drew upon a wider set of information about the individuals concerned than provided by the wiretap data. The study supports recent analyses that see organized crimes, such as drug trafficking, as mostly the work of small groups of loosely linked entrepreneurs rather than large, highly structured criminal syndicates.