Methods Meet Policy: Transnational Monitoring of the Israel–Palestine Conflict

For the past 2 years, the Kansas Event Data System project has been using event data and other web-based sources to produce quarterly reports on the Israel–Palestine conflict for the swisspeace (Swiss Peace Foundation) FAST Project, which is sponsored by Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation and a number of non-governmental organizations. This paper describes the indicators that we are monitoring, the process we have developed to generate the reports, and the supplemental sources we are using. We address the issue of the differences between newspaper and news wire reports with respect to "media fatigue" effects and also analyze some of the strengths and weaknesses of this approach to conflict monitoring.     

俄罗斯创新经济对中俄经贸科技合作的影响

面对全球日新月异的技术更新和产品换代，俄罗斯经济的发展依然更多地依靠出口原材料来支撑、维持。俄罗斯雄厚的科技基础和实力并没有在当今高新技术和知识经济时代发挥应有的作用，一些俄罗斯人开始意识到，靠卖原材料维持日子的时间不可能会太长，国家经济的发展需要新的思路，要走知识经济和技术创新之路。俄罗斯发展创新经济必将对中俄经贸科技合作产生重大影响。     

阿拉伯民族的三大特点及其对阿拉伯政治思潮的影响——以民族与宗教关系为视角的考察

宗教性、整体性、地方性构成了阿拉伯民族的三大特点,并对近代以来的阿拉伯政治思潮产生了重要影响.宗教性在伊斯兰改革主义、原教旨主义和泛伊斯兰主义中都得到了体现.在伊斯兰改革主义中体现为民族认同与宗教认同的混合;在原教旨主义和泛伊斯兰主义中体现为以宗教认同否定民族认同,但两者的政治主张又有所不同.整体性构成了泛阿拉伯民族主义的历史基础.强调民族认同高于宗教认同,对伊斯兰教既排斥限制,又加以整合与利用,构成了泛阿拉伯民族主义对待伊斯兰教的典型特征.地方性特征构成了地方民族主义产生的历史基础,地方阿拉伯民族主义主张以地方认同和国家认同为基础,建构自身的民族认同,排斥和贬低泛宗教认同,并奉行反对政教合一的世俗主义主张.     

Regional institutions: State withering or consolidation. the case of the Arab summits

The European Commission has spelled out its policy ambition for EU energy cooperation with the southern neighbourhood with plans for the establishment of an ‘Energy Community’. Its communications make clear that an Energy Community should be based on regulatory convergence with the EU acquis communautaire, much in the same vein as the existing institution carrying the same name; the Energy Community with Southeast Europe. It is puzzling that the Commission insists on repackaging this enlargement concept in a region with very different types of relationships vis-à-vis the EU, especially when considering the lukewarm position of key stakeholders in the field. According to them, any attempt to introduce a political integration model in this highly sensitive issue area in the politically fragmented MENA region might run the risk of hurting the incremental technical integration process that has slowly emerged over the past few years.     

试论巴勒斯坦民族构建问题——本土与流亡民族主义的磨合与分歧

巴勒斯坦民族构建问题是个长期而艰难的系统工程。巴勒斯坦民族主义产生及巴勒斯坦民族认同确立后,由于巴勒斯坦民族流亡于世界各地的特殊情况,本土与流亡民族主义之间长期相互隔绝,虽然经过了长期磨合,但至今仍存在严重分歧,给民族、国家的构建带来负面影响。因此,消除分歧,加强团结,建立独立的民族国家,是各政治派别的当务之急。     

阿拉伯亚里士多德学派人学思想的基本维度

阿拉伯亚里士多德学派是公元9～12世纪阿拉伯伊斯兰国家一些具有自由思想的哲学家兼自然科学家,汲取以亚里士多德为代表的古希腊哲学和自然科学,用哲学解释自然界,以理性阐述伊斯兰教义所形成的使哲学独立于宗教神学的新学派。阿拉伯亚里士多德学派具有丰富的人学思想,其内容包括了对人的起源、地位问题的探讨所构成的人学本体论;对人的属性和本质问题的探讨所构成的人学本质论;以及对人生价值、人生理想等问题的探讨所构成的人学价值论。以这3个基本维度为主线所建构的人学思想彰显出阿拉伯哲学所具有的深厚文化底蕴。     

The political importance of labelling: terrorism and Turkey's discourse on the PKK

Labelling the ‘other’ is one of the most relevant aspects in an armed conflict context. Summarising what the opponent is in one single expression is a strong rhetorical tool in any belligerent discourse. The use of the ‘terrorist’ label assumes a particularly powerful role in such a construction. Employing Ole Wæver's layered discursive structure, this article aims to study the discursive practices and political consequences associated with the use of such labels. The political implications of using the ‘terrorist’ label in regards to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in Turkish politics will be analysed as an illustrative case study. The period under analysis extends from April 2007 to January 2008, corresponding to the escalation of a security discourse that led to the (brief) Turkish military incursion in northern Iraq in the winter of 2007–2008. The political exposure and intense usage of the ‘terrorist’ label in this period makes it particularly ripe for understanding the political discursive context that shapes Turkey's policies towards this protracted conflict. The focus on this period also sheds light on the political reasons underlying the intractability of this conflict.     

东北亚区域经济合作新态势:俄韩经济合作及其影响

近年来,东北亚区域经济合作取得了较大进展,在关于合作的发展前景和模式方面,各国学者进行了积极的探索。尽管东北亚区域经济合作面临着诸多障碍:各国间政治关系复杂,社会差异巨大等,然而,在近年来的合作实践中,双边或三边合作在清除障碍、提高区域合作方面却取得明显的效果,形成东北亚区域经济合作发展的新态势。在双边合作中,俄韩经济合作具有一定的代表性,实效鲜明,对其进行探讨,深入研究新形势下东北亚区域经济合作的发展模式不无裨益。     

Confrontations on the Issue of Terrorism Between Iran and the U.S. after 1979

The issue of terrorism has been a significant source of influence on the relationship between Iran and the U.S. since the Islamic Revolution. Iran's friendship with extremist groups that are designated as terrorist groups by the U.S. State Department is seriously challenging America's foreign policy. This article attempts to explore the prospect of confrontations on the issue of terrorism between Iran and the U.S. through a detailed analysis of their different interpretations and mutual recognitions of terrorism and through an in-depth analysis of the measures each party has taken regarding this confrontation. This article argues that the confrontation between Iran and the U.S. regarding the issue of terrorism is not strictly about terrorism. Rather, it is also about the conflicts of policies that result from different security interests and political values. Resolving the issue of terrorism depends on the reconciliation of the relationship between Iran and the U.S. Without mutual trust between the two nations, Iran will continue to support extremist groups in order to increase its influence against the external and internal pressures it is currently under, and the U.S. will continue to contain Iran's regional ambitions and seek changes in its behavior.     

When and How Parliaments Influence Foreign Policy: The Case of Turkey's Iraq Decision

Turkey's decision on its role in the Iraq war in 2003 illustrates the power—and limits—of parliaments as actors in foreign policy. Traditionally, assemblies are not seen as important players in the foreign policies of parliamentary democracies. Instead, cabinets are generally considered the chief policymaking authorities. If the government enjoys a parliamentary majority, legislatures typically support the cabinet, if they are brought into the process at all. The March 1, 2003 vote by the Turkish parliament to not allow the United States to use Turkey as a base for the Iraq invasion challenges this conventional wisdom on parliamentary influence (in addition to many interest-based explanations of foreign policy). This paper examines this decision in the context of the role of parliaments in foreign policies and explores the relationships between parliamentary influence, leadership, intraparty politics, and public opinion.     

对外开放与中国外交

近30年前开始实施的对外开放政策不仅帮助中国走上崛起之路,给中国社会带来了翻天覆地的变化,而且还对中国外交产生了极为重大而深远的影响.对外开放促使中国摈弃以意识形态划线的外交模式,转而从现代化建设的现实需要出发,寻求同世界所有国家发展友好合作关系.与对外开放相适应,中国大力改善、巩固和发展同西方发达国家的关系,努力超越社会制度和意识形态的差异,寻求共同利益的汇合点,扩大互利合作,力争通过对话解决彼此之间的分歧,避免对抗.进入新世纪后,面对国际社会对中国崛起的关注和担忧,中国提出要始终不渝走和平发展道路,为此,中国将始终不渝奉行互利共赢的开放战略.     

非典对当前国际关系的影响

近来,“非典型肺炎”在全球范围内蔓延,成为继2001年“9·11”袭美事件以来又一大震撼世界的非传统国际热点问题。“非典”的冲击和影响已超出一般意义上的卫生防疫范围,波及到世界政治与经济;超出了任何一国的国内问题范围,是当前牵动国际关系大局的一个突出因素。     

美国对以色列军援政策的变化及其成因

自以色列建国以来,维护其生存和安全是美国历届政府一直不变的承诺,向以色列提供军事援助就是保障其安全的重要举措。美国主要从现实主义出发,根据其全球战略的需要来决定它对以色列提供军事援助的力度。由于美国在不同时期内对全球目标特别是中东战略目标有所不同,美国对以色列的军援政策也随之变化和调整,经历了一个限制——积极——以军援为施压手段——制度化——强化的演变过程。从未来发展看,美国与以色列在相当长时期内仍然互有所需,战略盟友关系不会变,美国对以色列的军援政策也基本上不会变。     

论文化对国际制度创新的影响

在国际关系领域,国际制度创新的基本目标是使制度更加体现国际社会的基本政治认同与价值观念,更加促进地区稳定与世界和平。文化作为一种共有观念,对于国际制度创新具有更加明显的促进作用,这一作用通过在非传统安全领域形成全球集体认同,或在地区层面建构制度创新的共识等方式表现出来。通过文化与权力的结合、文化与利益的结合,并通过国际社会的长期实践,在一定的危机或者偶然因素的促动下,文化就有可能实现制度化,推动国际和地区的合作进程。     

伊拉克战争对国际关系的影响

推翻萨达姆政权并控制伊拉克和中东的石油资源,扫除在美国实现其独霸世界目标道路上的障碍,是美国发动伊拉克战争的主要原因。美对伊战争的胜利将使美国的霸权地位得到进一步巩固和提高,对未来世界格局的走向产生深远的影响。     

De-Europeanisation and Equal Citizenship in Turkey: The Case of Circassians

ABSTRACT

The Europeanisation process in Turkey that extended roughly from 1999 to 2006 boosted the political and cultural rights of diverse ethnic groups in Turkey, including Circassians, and strengthened their claims for equal citizenship. With the loss or weakening of the EU as an anchor for democratic reform in the post-2007 period, however, the de-Europeanisation process has resulted in the disappearance of the main legal and institutional basis for the democratic integration of ethnocultural minorities. Nevertheless, analysis of the activities of four large Circassian communities in Turkey shows that the same process has enhanced the cultural reification of these groups as their survival strategy.     

The Impact of Pro-Government Militias on Human Rights Violations

New data show that between 1982 and 2007, in over 60 countries governments were linked to and cooperated with informal armed groups within their own borders. Given the prevalence of these linkages, we ask how such links between governments and informal armed groups influence the risk of repression. We draw on principal-agent arguments to explore how issues of monitoring and control help understanding of the impact of militias on human rights violations. We argue that such informal agents increase accountability problems for the governments, which is likely to worsen human rights conditions for two reasons. First, it is more difficult for governments to control and to train these militias, and they may have private interests in the use of violence. Second, informal armed groups allow governments to shift responsibility and use repression for strategic benefits while evading accountability. Using a global dataset from 1982 to 2007, we show that pro-government militias increase the risk of repression and that the presence of militias also affects the type of violations that we observe.     

东北亚交通物流合作框架研究

近年来,在经济全球化的推动下,东北亚各国和地区间的经济合作日益紧密,东北亚交通物流体系的完善成为区域内各国和地区普遍关注的问题。为此,东北亚各国和地区积极展开了交通物流领域的双边和多边合作。东北亚区域铁路、公路、海运、航空、管道等交通物流体系方面已初步形成一个基本框架,以此框架为基础,建立一体化交通物流网络,将在推进东北亚区域合作的过程中发挥基础性作用。     

西伯利亚燃料能源综合体对环境的影响

西伯利亚联邦区能源综合体对该地区经济发展具有重要作用,但同时它也是环境的一个主要污染源。尽管西伯利亚联邦区在实施燃料能源综合体项目时采用了净化设施,但目前还不可能完全消除燃料能源部门对环境造成的负面影响。因此,能源综合体必须加强环保工作,尽快采取切实可行的措施。