世界新秩序的建立与国家的选择

苏东剧变结束了二战以来的雅尔塔体制,也结束了冷战秩序。震荡之后,世界在经济和科技的发展带动之下,开启了真正意义的全球化大门,不再有两个阵营之间的固定壁垒,取而代之的是世界上的任何国际行为主体间都有了交流与合作的自由。国际社会体系的这种重大而深刻的变革对世界新秩序的形成造成了极大的冲击,各种力量重新调整彼此之间的关系,探索自身发挥影响所能达到的限度,寄希望于在新的世界秩序中占据有利地位。正是在这样一个格局转变的时刻,国家对于利益的追求方式也在做出新的选择。     

海洋话语与国际秩序转变

国际关系的演进表明,海洋话语转变是国际秩序转变的重要风向标。文章对海洋话语进行了概念分析,并将其细分成海洋硬话语与海洋软话语,明确其包涵因素和互动关系。战争、谈判、国际会议、条约及协定等是国家争取战略主导权、在国际权力格局中占据优势的重要手段,可作为海洋话语与国际秩序之间的互动机理。海洋话语与国际秩序转变主要经历了欧洲主导时期和美国主导时期,且美国主导时期延续至今。在“百年未有之大变局”时代,海洋世界多极化趋势显著,海陆联动明显,“泛海洋时代”到来;海洋话语的话语主体、结构设计、海缘范畴及议题领域等均在经历多维嬗变,国际海洋新秩序建构的可能性和必要性在不断提升。中国需把握好角色定位与策略选择,优化中国海洋战略,树立新海洋安全观,踏实构建海洋话语,在国际海洋新秩序的构建中发挥积极引领作用。     

Contestation and Transformation. Final Thoughts on the Liberal International Order

Abstract

The liberal international order, the inseparable mix of US geopolitical power and ideational project of organising international relations along normative frameworks such as internationalism, institutionalism and democracy, is reeling under the pressure of profound systemic changes such as greater interconnectedness and multipolarity. Predictions abound that increasing great power competition, most visibly at play in geographical areas of contested orders, will eventually tear it down. However, even if major actors – the US included – display a selective, irregular and often instrumental commitment to the liberal order, they are still repositioning themselves in that order and not outside of it. In addition, conflict is not the default outcome of order contestation, as hybrid forms of governance are possible even in troubled regions. No doubt, the world of tomorrow will be less American-shaped and less liberal, but transformation is a more plausible future than collapse for the liberal order.     

金砖国家经贸安全合作:挑战与对策

新兴经济体的崛起导致国际格局发生重大变化,全球治理体系却未很好地反映这种变化趋势,以金砖国家为首的新兴变革力量开始登上国际安全治理的舞台。然而,贸易保护主义抬头和逆全球化的盛行使金砖国家内部的贸易势头减弱;美联储加息、投资干预政策以及政局动荡和经济疲弱等因素使金砖国家面临外国直接投资净流入减少的压力;大宗商品价格剧烈波动给金砖国家能源安全合作带来困扰;金融安全合作进展缓慢。基于此,金砖国家应继续深化各领域的改革,加快经济结构的调整,为金砖国家的安全合作夯实基础;加快相互之间的发展战略对接,以提升金砖国家的安全合作水平;通过加强沟通与协调,积极参与全球治理,丰富金砖国家安全合作的内涵。     

二十国集团在全球治理结构中的角色分析

二十国集团作为国际经济合作的主要平台,要在全球经济治理中发挥核心作用,需要处理好与其他国际机构的关系。二十国集团取代了八国集团在国际经济合作中的地位,并相对明确地划分了各自的议题领域;帮助国际货币基金组织和世界银行筹措资金,推动它们进行配额改革,并取得一定进展;承诺抵制贸易保护主义,推动世界贸易组织多哈回合谈判尽快结束;正努力与联合国建立互利合作的关系。     

美国对国际核秩序的侵蚀与弱化

美国是国际核秩序的主要创建者、参与者和受益者,维持稳定的国际核秩序符合美国的安全利益。但是,出于战争制胜型核战略、意识形态、盟友关系、地缘政治等方面的战略考量,美国在维持、巩固国际核秩序的过程中,也对国际核秩序造成侵蚀与弱化。美国仍然把核武器置于其国家安全战略的重要位置,重视战术核武器的作用,研发低当量核武器和钻地核弹,模糊了核武器与常规武器的界限,降低了核武器的使用门槛,侵蚀了核价值观。美国追求绝对核优势,部署全球导弹防御系统,研发全球即时打击系统,违反国际核规范与印度进行核能合作,弱化核禁忌等做法,不利于大国之间的战略稳定性,破坏了核规范。在防扩散领域,美国一贯奉行双重标准,缺乏全局观念,对他国进行安全威胁,刺激了核扩散。为维护国际核秩序,美国应从维护全球和平与稳定的长远考虑出发,降低核武器在国家安全战略中的作用,减少缩小核武器的使用范围,停止部署全球范围内的导弹防御系统,放弃防扩散的双重标准,推动核价值观、核规范和核不扩散体制向着更加完善的方向演进,保证国际核秩序平稳、有效运行。     

A revised list of independent states since the congress of Vienna

We examine the criteria for membership in the international system as applied in the widely employed system membership list maintained by the Correlates of War Project. Some problems with existing classifications are illustrated and some analytical and empirical consequences of these problems are detailed. Using updated criteria and information, we develop a revised and updated list of the composition of the international system of nation state actors in world politics from the Congress of Vienna to the present.     

俄罗斯2000年的经济与未来的发展战略

2000年俄罗斯经济出现了转轨以来最好的发展局面,有的专家认为俄罗斯经济已进入恢复发展时期,并且预测未来10年俄罗斯经济年均增长速度将保持在5%以上。认真分析俄罗斯经济发展的动因,可以看出俄罗斯经济中依然存在着潜在的危机因素。俄罗斯2000年以后经济的持续发展不仅取决于国际和国内经济环境,更重要的还取决于未来的发展战略是否正确。     

后金融危机时代的全球地缘政治变局与中国的机遇

源于美国次贷危机的全球金融危机对世界格局产生了深远影响,国际体系正经历着冷战结束以来最大的地缘政治变动。后危机时代,国际体系将发生一系列深刻变化:新兴大国群体崛起,传统大国趋向衰落,国际战略力量分化重组,多极化发展到一个新的阶段;中美力量对比发生此消彼长的重大变化,中美关系将成为今后一个时期全球最重要的双边关系;大国关系趋向缓和,全球和地区地缘对抗色彩淡化;国际秩序酝酿结构性调整,中国面临历史性机遇。     

New Changes in the International Situation and China's Strategic Choices

The international situation is evolving more impressively than it has at any time since the end of the Cold War.Globalization has been in decline.Nations are scrambling to gain greater influence.The international strategic pattern is being adjusted.Many countries have problems with public management,and are faced with a new array of social trends and increasingly popular movements.The world is entering a new era full of chaos and anxiety.Mankind once again faces significant trade-offs and choices in peace and conflict,development and recession,openness and isolation,liberalism and conservatism.China strives to advocate win-win cooperation and lead the trend of reform and opening to maintain a favorable external environment despite world chaos,and enhance status and institutional rights in the international system.China's 30 years of development was successful in the process of integrating into the existing international system;China is a participant as well as a builder of the international system,rather than a challenger or a subversive.In the future,with a constructive attitude,China will promote the international system in a more reasonable direction together with international partners,in order to better safeguard world peace and security,and promote sustainable development throughout the world.     

The Transition of the International Order and China's Role

The international order is built on the principles of sovereign equality,national interests,great powers and respect for human rights among others.International rivalry and cooperation have existed side by side over the past few centuries,while the foundations of an intemational order have solidified.We are now seeing a transition in the international order that requires new innovative ways of thinking.China is seen as the key driver of these changes because of its unique status,pattern of growth and future potential.China should embrace this historic opportunity and take on its obligations to contribute to the birth of a new modern international order.     

States and their international relations since 1816: introducing version 2 of the International System(s) Dataset (ISD)

ABSTRACT

We introduce version 2 of the International System(s) Dataset (ISD), a register of sovereign states across the 1816–2016 period that include numerous states that are missed in commonly used datasets like the Correlates of War (COW) Project. Whereas ISD version 1 identified 363 states between 1816 and 2011, version 2 identifies 482. This version also records valuable information on a range of corollary variables, including start dates, end dates, estimated population sizes, diplomatic relations with Europe, conflict episodes, the existence of borders, and the location of capital cities. This dataset makes an important contribution to the study of international relations. It provides a more accurate understanding of the development of the international system over the last two centuries, it moves beyond the Eurocentric bias that sits at the heart of existing quantitative IR scholarship, and it will enable scholars to pursue a range of research topics such as the historical importance of state borders and boundaries, the practices surrounding recognition, and the frequency and intensity of conflict across regions. In this article, we discuss the existing state system membership lists and show how the ISD addresses their shortcomings. We outline the key concept and operationalization of statehood that the ISD adopts. We detail the variables included in this version of the ISD, discuss the data collection process, and show temporal and spatial distributions that illustrate the uniqueness of the ISD. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of bringing the ISD into one of many potential research topics: the study of conflict.     

国际金融安全观的演进与评估

国际金融安全是全球化进程中的重要安全议题,也是当前国际秩序转型期全球治理的重要议题。国际金融安全具有主客交融的属性,既涉及物质层面的客观威胁,又涉及观念层面的威胁认知。金融安全研究的三种基本逻辑是权力竞争、利益互动和安全建构。从全球金融治理的视角可以将国际金融安全观界定为核心治理主体对国际金融风险的来源和性质的认知。风险来源和风险性质是国际金融安全观的两个核心内涵,分别对全球金融治理的层级和模式产生重要影响,并由此形成了一个识别国际金融安全观的理论框架。基于这一框架,二战结束以来国际金融安全观的演进主要经历了货币体系安全观、“完美市场”安全观、微观审慎安全观和宏观审慎安全观四个阶段,它们在风险的来源与性质以及治理的层级、逻辑、模式弹性与效力等维度存在较大差异。在当前国际金融体系下,国际社会的金融安全意识在弱化,大国间的金融安全观分歧和竞争正逐渐侵蚀全球金融治理的共识基础,国际金融安全面临的不确定性风险增加。     

Globalization by the Numbers: Quantitative Indicators and the Role of Policy

Many writers have sought empirical referents for globalization. The most persuasive work has considered economic, political, cultural, and environmental indicators. Attempts to combine indicators from different spheres into a single index appear unpromising.     

Nativism or Economic Threat: Attitudes Toward Immigrants During the Great Recession

To better evaluate the weight of economic versus cultural factors in determining individual attitudes toward open borders, this article reports on a survey experiment conducted over the course of the Great Recession. Over the course of the recession, we measured changes in attitudes on both immigration and trade policies, controlling for economic circumstance. Based on the data provided by respondents on both their current salaries as well as a subjective assessment of their economic well-being, we illustrate how both objective and subjective perceptions of the economy interact with cultural factors and influence attitudes on open borders. The panel provides a unique picture of the “stickiness” of policy attitudes in hard economic times, and by extension, the level of commitment in the United States to globalization.     

Foreign Policy Activism in Saudi Arabia and Oman. Diverging Narratives and Stances towards the Syrian and Yemeni Conflicts

Abstract

Amid growing animosity and security concerns in the Middle East, the Gulf region appears to be on the way to becoming the new centre of gravity of regional equilibria. The increasingly active foreign policy postures of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is a key aspect of the new regional order in the making. Saudi Arabia and Oman are two examples of this trend. Their involvement in the Syrian and Yemeni conflicts reveals important differences regarding the aims, narratives, political and military postures, strategies and alliances pursued by Riyadh and Muscat and casts a shadow over the future of GCC cooperation and integration.     

国际货币体系改革与全球金融安全机制构建:关联与问题JP〗*

国际货币体系是全球金融安全机制构建的制度基础,从国际货币体系改革分析其与全球金融安全机制构建之间的关联性具有重要的政策含义。国际货币体系改革与全球金融安全网构建具有内在的逻辑关联。国际货币体系风险处置和危机应对功能使得全球金融稳定和安全具有了基础保障;国际货币体系对于流动性管理的重视和全球流动性管理机制建设有利于保持全球流动性的稳定;国际汇率协调有利于国际收支失衡改善和汇率基本稳定;国际货币体系改革还争取通过机制安排来弱化货币中心国的政策外溢效应;国际货币体系的治理结构改革是全球金融安全体系的基础保障之一。但是,国际货币体系改革与全球金融安全机制构建面临着诸如国际货币体系安全的内生矛盾、全球金融安全体系短板、全球与区域金融安全网络的迭代以及改革泛政治化等问题。基于国际货币体系与全球金融安全的内在关联,应在促进布雷顿森林机构的改革、构建全球金融安全网、建立流动性管理机制、推进超主权货币建设、深化区域货币合作五个方面,推进全球金融安全体系的建设,保障全球金融稳定。     

三种世界秩序模式的现实分析

伴随冷战的结束,旧秩序解体,什么样的新秩序才是最符合人类社会发展的要求? 目前,国际社会主要存在着 3种世界秩序模式:单极霸权秩序、两极对抗秩序和多极均衡秩序。单极霸权秩序早已成为历史,这种模式与当今的世界多极化趋势相悖。在国家利益仍在国际关系中占据重要地位的时代,两极对抗秩序也不具有现实可行性。因此,人类最终和最佳的选择只能是多极均衡秩序。     

States versus Corporations: Rethinking the Power of Business in International Politics

Over 25 years ago, Susan Strange urged IR scholars to include multinational corporations in their analysis. Within IR and IPE discussions, this was either mostly ignored or reflected in an empirically and methodologically unsatisfactory way. We reiterate Strange’s call by sketching a fine-grained theoretical and empirical approach that includes both states and corporations as juxtaposed actors that interact in transnational networks inherent to the contemporary international political economy. This realistic, juxtaposed, actor- and relations-centred perspective on state and corporate power in the global system is empirically illustrated by the example of the transnationalisation of state ownership.     

试论中韩战略合作伙伴关系中的美国因素

中韩关系的发展已进入战略合作伙伴关系的高层次阶段,对整个东亚战略新格局的形成起着至关重要的作用。然而,韩国的对华外交却承受着美韩同盟关系的制约,韩国夹在中美之间,左右为难,面临着严重困境。2010年发生的"天安舰事件"和"延坪岛事件"以及2012年发生的"脱北者事件"等,将中韩战略合作伙伴关系中原本隐蔽着的问题暴露在世人的面前,其中之一即是美韩同盟关系与中韩战略合作伙伴关系的内在结构性矛盾。李明博执政期间,美韩同盟有趋强的趋势,导致中韩关系面临着重大考验。韩国外交的根本出路:"须在中美间找准外交平衡点","中美韩‘三国演义’演不好,半岛南北就永无宁日"。为此,韩国需要有更多的独立决策能力,保持自身在两者间的平衡,既与美国保持同盟关系,又与中国发展战略合作伙伴关系。任何倒向美国一边的政策,都会使韩国的战略决策失衡,使中韩战略合作伙伴关系受损。可以期待2012年大选后韩国政府的对美、对华政策会有新的调整,自主性、多元性、平衡性将成为韩国外交的发展方向,将有利于推动中韩战略合作伙伴关系的深化与发展。