Prelude to war: Incidence,escalation and intervention in international disputes, 1900–1976

The study provides an overview of a set of data describing the incidence and character of serious international disputes in the twentieth century. The principal findings reported include: Average annual incidence of serious international disputes has risen more than fourfold between 1900 and 1976. The underlying cause of this increase seems to be simply the increased size of the international system. The relative likelihood with which a serious dispute culminates in war is 1 in 9. However, there are definite differences in this relative frequency. Disputes involving major powers escalate to war approximately 1 in 5 times. Disputes involving only minor powers culminate in war with a likelihood of 1 in 20. Intervention in ongoing disputes increases the chance of war. The character of intervention has changed throughout the century with initiators less able to attract support and the targets of threat and force more able to do so.     

The dimensions of the divide: vertical differentiation,international inequality and North–South stratification in international relations theory

Recent attempts at developing social-structural accounts of the international order have suggested that the international system might be analysed in terms of patterns of vertical differentiation and stratification. Taking up this challenge, this article argues that inequality should be understood as part of the ‘deep structure’ of the international system rather than in terms of the attributes of individual states. It suggests that we can understand how stratification and vertical differentiation emerge by examining five dimensions along which processes producing asymmetry occur, focusing on transactions between actors. These dimensions are: inter-state political hierarchy; secular socioeconomic development within societies; global stratification within the world economy; the dynamic of competitive development; and the process of overall collective management and supranational governance of the international system/global order. The historical intersection of these forms of stratification has produced an emergent, historically contingent division within the international order familiar to students of international politics as the North–South divide.     

‘The limits of international leadership’: The Eisenhower administration,East‐West trade and the cold war, 1953–54

This article examines the Eisenhower administration's trade policy towards the Soviet Union in 1953–54. It argues, contrary to previous scholarship on the subject, that the liberalization of East‐West trade controls in August 1954 cannot be attributed solely to the presidential leadership of Dwight D. Eisenhower. Instead, whilst Eisenhower played a significant role in changing American embargo policy, it was the Churchill government which provided the impetus required for the revision of the international export control lists. Despite conflict and confrontation over the shape and contents of the new embargo between Washington and London, the two governments forged a compromise in the summer of 1954.     

Regional Impact of Evolving Developments in Lebanon

Lebanon is situated in a sensitive area in the Middle East and has been locked in prolonged turmoil. Its domestic problems have been interwoven with the region's underlying contradictions for decades. The situation in Lebanon has undergone significant changes since Syria pulled out its troops from Southern Lebanon. The United States has got itself more proactively involved in the     

Growth and productivity measures of China’s due to international trade: PRC’S experience 1970–1993

Solow’s Growth Model Solow (Q J Econ 70:65–94, 1956) and aggregate data are applied to estimates the increase in productivity due international trade and the resulting technical change and capital augmentation for the years 1970 to 1978 and 1978 (the beginning of the reforms and “open door” policy in China) to 1993. According this paper’s estimations the GDP per man hour in 1978 increased by 1.76 times for the year 1970, from $0.1233 in 1970 to $0.2169 in 1978, and in 1993 by 5.23 time that of 1978 to $1.1348 in 1993. For the period under study due to “open door” policy the GDP per man-hour more than quadrupled, and 76.18% of this increase was due to technical changes and the remaining 23.82 was due to capital augmentation. The paper consists of five sections. “Introduction” Section reviews some of the growth literature as well as looking at the macroeconomic measures of China’s economic performance since 1978 the beginning of the reforms. “Data” Section explains the data modifications. “Empirical results” Section portrays the empirical results and the next indicates conclusions. This paper is dedicated to the memories of Late Dr. Anthony D’Amato, who was a Professor at W. Paul Stillman School of Business at Seton Hall University South Orange, New Jersey.

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The United States Sale of Trident to Britain, 1977–1982: Deal Making in the Anglo–American Nuclear Relationship

This article provides a comparative analysis of the sales of the Trident nuclear missile system to Britain by the Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan administrations. Both governments viewed the Anglo–American nuclear partnership as a tool within their wider foreign policy kit and utilised the sale of Trident to influence British defence policy. For these reasons, each administration saw the Trident sale as part of an Anglo–American transactional defence relationship. This exegesis deepens understanding of the United States perspective on Anglo–American nuclear co-operation. Moreover, it is relevant to current debates on the replacement of Trident because it highlights the ramifications of Britain’s technical dependence and raises questions about the concessions that may have been made, or will need to be made, to the United States in exchange for the latter’s assistance with replacement.     

Terrorism as treated by the Christian science monitor, 1977–1987

Standing uniquely apart from journalistic sensationalism in its reportage of terrorism, the Christian Science Monitor (CSM/“The Monitor”) has taken a stance of trying to keep perspective on what individual events mean in terms of a wider framework.

It is perhaps critical to state at the outset that this researcher is not of the Christian Science faith, but has been a faithful reader of the Monitor for 15 years. When approached several years ago by The Terrorism and the News Media Research Project to contribute to that scholarship, an immediate response was that her primary newspaper would be inadequate to the task. A preliminary check into the Christian Science Monitor Index confirmed that fact: there were no entries under the heading of “terrorism” for 1975, 1976, 1977, and for 1978 it directed the researcher to see “violence”.

But then some dramatic changes took place in the mid‐1980s. The newspaper was undergoing major transitions internally, and terrorism was becoming an increasingly hot topic internationally.

This paper discusses terrorism as treated by the Christian Science Monitor, 1977–1987 both quantitatively and qualitatively. The approach is to delineate some of the underpinning philosophy of the newspaper, to discuss its chronological treatment of terrorism, and then to draw some implications from the study.     

Austria and European integration, 1947–60: Western orientation,neutrality and free trade

The purpose of this paper is to analyze Austria's role in the early days of European integration. This includes the attempt to find a European solution to the South Tyrol problem and the first steps towards the economy's Western orientation, that is, Austria's participation in the Marshall Plan, its OEEC and EPU memberships as well as its relationship with the Council of Europe and the ECSC. International relations determined Austria's room for manoeuvre in its efforts to obtain independence. This excluded EEC membership. The Ballhausplatz was thus striving for a European Free Trade Area. The role of the political parties are also covered in this paper. A further objective is to examine Austria's integration policy and the contrasts between the situation in Austria and West Germany. The paper points out how this small European state tried to avoid its exclusion from the European integration process and how it applied various methods to approach and cooperate with European institutions.     

International cooperation in exchange‐rate management: Coordination of U.S. and Japanese intervention, 1977–1990

What are the determinants of international cooperation in exchange‐rate management? To answer this question, coordination of foreign exchange intervention by the United States and Japan from 1977 to 1990 is analyzed. An examination of the data raises two empirical puzzles: (1) Why do the periods of active intervention and high cooperation coincide?; (2) Why does Japan intervene unilaterally more often than the United States? Some hypotheses drawn from various theories of cooperation are tested, but none of them receive strong support. Instead, intervention volume and learning by U.S. administrations account for the variance in coordination. These findings resolve the two puzzles: (1) The periods of active intervention are the time of high need for cooperation; (2) Japan is obliged to intervene unilaterally while the United States is learning to cooperate.     

New Developments in China＇s Relations with Neighboring Countries

China has vast land and water territories, with 22,000km border line and 18,000km coastal line. Bordering 14 countries, China is also a country with the most neighboring countries in the world. Harmony with neighbors leads to peaceful surrounding environment--an important prerequisite for China＇s domestic economic building. Therefore, China always puts developing good-neighborly relations as the priority of its foreign policy.     

Civil society perspectives on EU–ASIA free trade agreements

This paper focuses on the positions taken by civil society organisations that actively campaign on trade policies. Trade campaigners oppose the neo-liberal approach to trade and development and advocate a much more gradual and prudent approach to trade liberalisation. They stress that trade liberalisation will only lead to sustainable development if it respects environmental and social concerns, including the gender dimension of trade; if trade liberalisation is properly owned, prepared and sequenced; adapted to the institutional and economic needs and capacities of the countries and people involved, and accompanied by all necessary flanking measures. Trade campaigners stress the need to maintain policy space and the necessary governance instruments to react to changing circumstances and address social and environmental concerns. They denounce the lack of information, consultation and participation provided by governments in trade policy formulation and negotiations and they campaign to raise awareness and create more room for debate and participation. This article builds on a paper presented on 19-20 June 2008 at an UNU-CRIS Work Shop in Bruges on “Deep Integration and North-South Free Trade Agreements. EU Strategy for a Global Economy”.

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The new generation of international investment agreements: recent developments in the Asia–Pacific region

Over the past decade, a number of countries in the Asia Pacific region have concluded a new generation of FTAs that liberalise trade in goods and services while also containing investment protection provisions. This paper provides an overview of the recent trends giving special attention to the impact of Investor State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) cases which has influenced the evolution of investment rule-making over the last decade. The paper asserts that investment disputes have influenced the refinement of the provisions of the new generation of investment agreements as well as the inclusion of a series of procedural and substantive innovations in these agreements. *Ambassador of Costa Rica to the European Union, Belgium and Luxembourg. This paper was written on the basis of several research projects in which the author participated, before assuming the current position with the Costa Rican government, as consultant with UNCTAD. However, the opinions and views expressed in this paper do not represent the position of UNCTAD, nor the Government of Costa Rica and fully fall under responsibility of the author.

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Does participation in international organizations increase cooperation?

Recent research asserts that public commitments to international institutions promote behavior that is consistent with institutional purposes. Evidence for this proposition is based almost entirely on studies that compare the behavior of states that have and have not ratified treaties. This paper evaluates instances in which some member states temporarily experience increased entanglement with an IO because they or their nationals serve in a position of authority. Unlike selection into IOs, selection into positions of authority is often governed by a common, observable, and partially exogenous process. I exploit exogenous exit, random assignment to different term lengths, and competitive elections in three contexts: the International Criminal Court (ICC), the UN Human Rights Commission (UNHRC), and the UN Security Council (UNSC). The evidence implicates that acquiring a position of authority can make states more willing to reject U.S. advances to sign non-surrender agreements, adopt domestic legislation that changes the penal code (ICC case), ratify legally binding treaties (UNHRC case), and contribute to peacekeeping missions (UNSC case). On the other hand, there is no evidence that UN institutions successfully select more cooperative states for positions of authority. Similar research designs can gainfully be employed to identify the causal effects of other forms of institutional participation.     

Italy in international politics: October 1st ‐ december 31st, 1969

The financial crisis has prompted an extensive debate on the lessons to be learned, particularly from a regulatory point of view, and especially in Europe where the crisis could mean a serious setback for financial integration. The Larosière Report has set out guidelines for improving the European regulatory framework and has inspired a proposal for European legislation. Although the Report has been praised for its effort to overhaul European financial regulation, many details are still vague. In particular, there are seven points at the macro-level of prudential supervision on which clearer and tougher solutions are needed. Furthermore, there are two unresolved problems in the proposals for micro-supervision. It is important to take all of these issues into account in the future discussion on European legislation.