Assessing the balance

Save for the single issue of balance of power theory's relevance to the current system, where we and some of our critics are in real disagreement (and they are wrong), every aspect of this symposium has been highly productive. Our critics do not directly dispute the proposition that a rapid end of a single superpower world is extremely unlikely. They generally endorsed our core finding that the systemic constraints featured in IR scholarship are largely inoperative with respect to a United States that remains the sole superpower. These essays are consequently devoted mainly to discussing the implications of our findings and the future research agenda. In particular, they developed serious challenges to the idea of US led institutional revisionism, generated new ideas about both systemic and non-systemic constraints, and suggested potentially powerful theories about constraints on other states besides the United States.     

When aid builds states: party dominance and the effects of foreign aid on tax collection after civil war

ABSTRACT

Does foreign aid strengthen or weaken post-conflict states? We examine the effects of aid on tax collection after civil war, an important dimension of state effectiveness. While the literature emphasizes aid’s perverse effects, the relationship between aid dependence and the growth of tax collection is unclear. We argue that the impact of aid reflects its political utility for ruling elites in consolidating their authority after civil war. While dominant parties subvert tax strengthening reforms to solidify their political base, elites in more fractionalized settings rely on external political backing to manage internal challenges to their authority, and are more likely to comply with donor conditions. We test this argument through a Latent Curve Analysis of tax collection rate growth in post-civil war countries from 1978 to 2012. We find that aid is associated with slower growth in tax collection in dominant party settings, and more rapid tax growth in politically fractionalized settings. The findings highlight the need for attention to internal political dynamics to explain aid effectiveness after civil war, and point to opportunities to strengthen institutions in some post-conflict countries.     

Cry,the imagined country: Legitimacy and the fate of Macedonia

Whether or not the future Europe will be characterized as one of constant security dilemmas or a place of integrating security identities may well be linked to the fate of Macedonia. Indeed, Macedonia's survival will depend on ‘external’ forces.1 Yet, to date, the limited responses and commitments on the part of external parties have not been entirely promising. Unlike many other analyses that have focused on the Balkans, and former Yugoslavia in particular, and argued that the causes for conflict and disintegration are markedly similar, we suggest that Macedonia's problems are unique. It remains a too common and crucial mistake to assume that the root causes for disintegration that have plagued Serbia, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Bosnia‐Herzegovina and Macedonia since 1991 are all linked to a few centrally identifiable factors. And, with the exception of attempting to lessen the disparate economic geographies that continue to spell promise or peril for the entire region, the root solutions for Southeast Europe will prove problematic, and at times seem overwhelming, but will not prove ultimately impossible. However small, a window of opportunity still exists in Southeast Europe.     

Congo Co: aid and security

Northern donors manage the Democratic Republic of Congo as though it were a company. Through aid, these donors identify and respond to key weaknesses in Congo's ability to operate economically within the global market. As it is a country that poses high threats (from infectious diseases, economic misconduct and a volatile political situation) and high opportunities (in terms of political influence over, and sale of, vast resources) decisions on aid are taken in accordance with Northern concerns, which dominate the definition of global security. In this way, economic decisions are incorporated into the pursuit of global security. Most aid goes to the health sector and is characterised by surveillance, not prevention or treatment, and a set of governance interventions that grant strategic influence in shaping the political economy of the country. These responses have functions in terms of global security; they also grant some returns to Congo, but neglect much and aggravate some forms of insecurity at a domestic level.     

Post-war aid: patterns and purposes

A recent report by the World Bank reiterates the widely held view that donor agencies commit large amounts of funding in the immediate post-conflict phase, only for this to taper off to more ‘normal’ levels once the crisis is over. The World Bank criticises this phenomenon, referred to as ‘frontloading’, claiming that it damages the prospects of economic growth, which in turn undermines the peace. This article argues that the Bank's analysis is flawed because it does not distinguish between commitments and disbursements, or take sufficient account of other factors influencing aid patterns over time and in different settings. Moreover, the link between official aid and post-war economic performance is of only marginal significance. Any critique of aid policies needs to be based on a detailed analysis of what is delivered rather than what is promised, and of the impact of donors' assistance on the ground.     

Language,NGOs and inclusion: the donor perspective

Listening to communities is valued by UK’s Department of International Development (DFID) for contributing to “beneficiary” empowerment and programme efficiency. This article is based on interviews with elite DFID officials to explore their understandings on how they expect NGOs to engage with local languages and the role of language intermediaries. It uncovers their perceptions of the ways that languages and cultural knowledge shape NGO relationships with communities. It finds that the officials assume that listening is unproblematic for NGOs, and ask few questions about translation and interpretation. The article concludes by reflecting on policy implications and directions for further research.     

The political strategy of external aid

When creating a process of international aid, the definition of a political strategy is critically important. In theory, a government able to deliver services and goods to its population and to guarantee participation in decision-making might not need the presence of international aid. International aid should bridge an existing gap between a government and its own population by adopting a relevant political strategy. This viewpoint proposes a reference framework for international cooperation actors to define their basic political strategy and provides a comprehensive framework for situating different political strategies into a wider approach.     

Matching goods and people: aid and human security after the 2004 tsunami

This article asks why, despite an abundance of aid materials and the good intentions of various relief agencies, tsunami-relief efforts in Thailand after the Great Sumatra Earthquake of 2004 resulted in complaints and skewed aid distribution. Beginning with an analysis of how relief goods are distributed in practice, the focus of the article shifts to forces that cause certain types of goods to be concentrated in certain communities. It concludes by identifying the limits of the goods-based relief approach, introducing intangible resources and identity as more foundational dimensions in the study of distribution.     

Foreign aid and political conditionality: Issues of effectiveness and consistency

This article examines the implementation of political conditionality by four official aid donors in the 1990s. It explores the aid sanctions taken globally to leverage improvements in respect of human rights and democratic principles, and assesses donor policy practice along two lines of investigation ‐ effectiveness and consistency. A main finding is the ineffectiveness of aid restrictions in contributing to political reforms in recipient countries. This is accounted for more by the weakness of measures imposed than by the strength of recipient governments, questioning the seriousness of donor intent in many cases. Regarding consistency, a pattern of selective and inconsistent policy application is revealed. The increased rhetorical support for democracy and human rights by northern governments post‐cold war has not led to a corresponding change towards the fair and equal treatment of all nations. The continued subordination of human rights and democracy to other foreign policy concerns, notably economic self‐interest, not only undermines policy credibility and legitimacy, but also limits impact and effectiveness. Donors themselves have introduced a normative dimension to aid policy. Yet if their own commitment to the principles of human rights and democracy is at best partial, they can hardly require development partners to abide by them in a manner that commands respect.     

Making aid effective at the community level: the AMREF experience

Effective use of donor aid is critical in achieving the sixth Millennium Development Goal –reversing the HIV/AIDS epidemic by 2015. The Paris Declaration of 2005 identified five key principles for aid effectiveness: ownership, alignment, harmonisation, mutual accountability and managing for results. As civil society organisations play a critical role in implementing HIV/AIDS interventions, it is important that they adhere to these principles. Often, however, they fail to implement interventions conforming with the principles, leading to duplication and inefficiency. Two case studies from AMREF in Kenya demonstrate how the principles of aid effectiveness can be applied to increase the impact of HIV/AIDS interventions.

Rendre l'aide efficace au niveau communautaire : l'expérience d'AMREF

L'utilisation efficace de l'aide apportée par les bailleurs de fonds est cruciale pour atteindre le sixième Objectif du Millénaire pour le développement – inverser l'épidémie du VIH/sida d'ici à 2015. La Déclaration de Paris de 2005 a identifié cinq principes clés pour l'efficacité de l'aide : l'appropriation, l'alignement, l'harmonisation, la redevabilité mutuelle et la gestion en vue de résultats. Comme les organisations de la société civile jouent un rôle crucial dans la mise en ?uvre des interventions en matière de VIH/sida, il est important qu'elles adhèrent à ces principes. Cependant, souvent, elles échouent à mettre en ?uvre des interventions conformes aux principes, ce qui aboutit à des doublons et à l'inefficacité. Deux études de cas d'AMREF au Kenya démontrent la manière dont les principes de l'efficacité de l'aide peuvent être appliqués pour accroître l'impact des interventions de lutte contre le VIH/sida.

Tornando a Ajuda Efetiva no Âmbito da Comunidade: A experiência da AMREF

O uso efetivo da ajuda dos doadores é crucial para se alcançar o sexto Objetivo de Desenvolvimento do Milênio – reverter a epidemia do HIV/AIDS até 2015. A Declaração de Paris de 2005 identificou cinco princípios-chave para a efetividade da ajuda: apropriação, alinhamento, harmonização, responsabilidade mútua e gerenciamento para resultados. Como as organizações da sociedade civil desempenham um papel crucial na implementação de intervenções relativas ao HIV/AIDS, é importante que elas tenham adesão a estes princípios. Frequentemente, porém, elas falham na implementação das intervenções de acordo com os princípios, levando à duplicação e ineficiência. Dois estudos de caso da AMREF no Quênia mostram como os princípios da efetividade da ajuda podem ser aplicados para aumentar o impacto das intervenções relativas ao HIV/AIDS.

Una ayuda más eficiente a nivel comunitario: la experiencia AMREF

Para alcanzar los Objetivos de Desarrollo del Milenio y conseguir que la epidemia del VIH/SIDA retroceda para el 2015, es de vital importancia que la ayuda de los donantes se utilice con más eficiencia. La Declaración de París de 2005 enunció cinco principios clave para que la ayuda sea eficaz: apropiación, alineación, armonización, rendición de cuentas mutua y gestión basada en los resultados. Debido a que las organizaciones de la sociedad civil desempeñan un papel fundamental en la lucha contra el VIH/SIDA, es necesario que éstas respeten los cinco principios. Sin embargo, a menudo éstos no se aplican en la práctica ocasionando duplicidades y falta de eficiencia. Dos estudios de caso de AMREF (siglas en inglés de la Fundación Africana de Medicina e Investigación) en Kenia muestran cómo estos principios de eficacia en la ayuda son útiles para aumentar el impacto de la lucha contra el VIH/SIDA.     

Rejecting the gift horse: international politics of disaster aid refusal

This is a study of the increasingly common phenomenon of developing states refusing some or all international aid following serious natural disaster. Aid refusal by the Myanmar junta following a 2008 cyclone is only the most recent prominent example of this practice, and I present here an original dataset of all cases of disaster aid refusal occurring between 1982 and 2006. Through quantitative analysis, I show that although poorer states are indeed less likely to refuse aid than wealthier states, recipient need does not alone drive the decision-making process. Nor are autocratic regimes any more or less likely to refuse aid than democratic regimes. Rather, just as recently transitioned states have been shown by other scholars to be particularly likely to engage in military conflict, I find that they are also particularly likely to publicly and explicitly refuse aid and insist on their own ability to handle disaster relief and recovery. Aid refusal, much like aid provision, is at its core a political act.     

Terrorism and public opinion: A five country comparison

This article examines public attitudes towards terrorism in five countries: Uruguay, Spain, Italy, Germany and Northern Ireland. It analyzes public concern over terrorism, images of the terrorists, support for the terrorists' goals, and public approval of anti‐terrorist measures. There are significant differences between nationalist and revolutionary terrorism. Nationalist terrorists have a high degree of support from an ethnic constituency, while revolutionary terrorists attract a much smaller degree of support primarily from the educated young. It is concluded that public opinion towards terrorism is a product of complex historical situations, and that public attitudes are unaffected by the terrorist campaign itself.