Value Creation: A Coordination Game

Strategy in negotiation is often modeled as an activity involving the interplay of creating and claiming behaviors. Theorists have advanced differing perspectives on what game best describes the consequences of choosing one approach over the other. David Lax and James Sebenius offer the prisoner's dilemma game as a model, whereas Richard Walton and Robert McKersie's analysis is consistent with a version of a classic coordination game — namely, the game of “chicken.” This article revisits these two perspectives and shows that the Walton–McKersie view is applicable to a broad range of contexts. In particular, it demonstrates how what is commonly called the tension between creating value and claiming is better understood as the simple tension between a high‐risk and a low‐risk choice.     

Credibility and Strategy in International Mediation

We study mediation in international conflict as a process of strategic interaction among the two disputants and the (would-be) mediator. We develop a rational model that examines the choice, process, and outcome of mediation. We start with a conflict game of incomplete information played by rational players that examines the conditions under which disputants and would-be mediators would consider mediation a preferred strategy. The mediation game that follows models the mediator's choice of mediation strategy and the possible responses of the disputants offers. Finally, we explore the conditions under which a mediated solution emerges and the conditions under which mediation fails.

The credibility of the mediator—defined as the extent to which disputants believe the mediator's statements, threats, or promises and her ability to deliver the promised agreement—emerges as a key factor that drives the model. Each disputant has an assessment of the mediator's credibility. Broadly speaking, the more credible the mediator is perceived by the disputant, the more accepting the disputant will be of her offers. Yet, the mediator does not know how credible she is in the view of the disputants. This uncertainty affects the mediator's decision to intervene and her choice of strategies. We derive testable propositions from this model and test them on a dataset consisting of mediation efforts in international conflicts over the years 1945–1995. The findings generally support the propositions derived from the model, and we explore the theoretical and empirical implications of these findings.     

Cantankerous Cooperation: Democracies,Authoritarian Regimes,and the Prisoner's Dilemma

One of the most important debates in the field of international relations is over the effect of regime type on militarized conflict. This debate, however, has rarely extended to how regime type influences other aspects of foreign policy. Using a computer simulated intergroup prisoner's dilemma, we investigate whether democratic decisionmaking groups are more cooperative than authoritarian decisionmaking groups. We argue that differences between cooperation tendencies of groups can be explained by the structure of the decision process. Repeated simulations show that democracies tend to be more consistent in their decisions in comparison to authoritarian groups. Implications for international relations theory and policy are discussed.     

Mediation and Culture: The Example of the ICC International Commercial Mediation Competition

The International Commercial Mediation Competition is organized by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) in Paris, which held the event for the eighth time in February 2013. As the competition has grown, participation has become more and more diverse and thus mediation and negotiation have become more and more cross‐cultural. This led the ICC to invite external research on culture at the competition in February 2011. In this article, I discuss this student competition, the external research project question, and the culture of the competition. I also identify some of the further cultural issues raised by referring to relevant research on conflict and mediation across cultures, and conclude with some thoughts on how better to conceptualize the field of cross‐cultural mediation in terms of a systems approach.     

Escape from the Laboratory: Ethnographic Methods in the Study of Elder and Family Court Mediation

The randomized control trial and pre/post research designs are commonly used in applied research and provide common standards for mediation evaluation research. These approaches have many benefits, particularly for evaluating whether mediation as an experimental intervention works or not. Scholars and practitioners, however, want to know not only whether mediation can work as expected but also how it works in a range of real‐world contexts over time. In these contexts, ideal experimental conditions are less likely to occur. Challenges include such circumstances as the following: the number of cases suitable for statistical comparison is insufficient; researchers lack control over how mediation is implemented; researchers lack clear, objective variables to measure; and the variability of mediation outcomes when studied over time makes it difficult to draw conclusions about them. My research has involved each of these challenges, and I have used ethnographic research as a way to evaluate mediation in these contexts. In this article, I explain ethnographic methods and present two studies as examples of mediation evaluation research that began with a standard program evaluation design, and then incorporated ethnography to allow more complete data collection and analysis. My purpose here is not to argue that experimental methods in mediation evaluation research should be displaced but rather to demonstrate how ethnographic methods can be used when the conditions necessary for standard evaluation cannot be met. The two studies used as examples are from an elder mediation study in Ghana and a family court mediation study in the United States.     

The Past,Present, and Future of Mediation as Seen through the Eyes of Some of Its Founders

This article is drawn from interviews with thirty‐one of mediation's “founders,” those pioneers who began mediating in the 1970s and 1980s, when the field was young. They describe what first attracted them to mediation and why they have remained active in the field. Some told us that they have found it to be both intellectually challenging and interpersonally satisfying to assist disputing parties in their search for a mutually acceptable resolution they could not find on their own. Others see mediation's collaborative approach to decision making as a means of bringing about social and political change that might be otherwise unattainable. The mediators also described the changes they have observed since they entered the field: mediation's dramatic growth, institutionalization in the judicial system, and market domination by lawyers and retired judges. Among the concerns they expressed were the prevalence of a mediation model that focuses primarily on the legal strengths and weaknesses of each party's position, and the dollar amount that should resolve the dispute, with little interest in creative outcomes. Other concerns are a lack of quality control of mediators and trainers, and unproductive debate about whether the “correct” approach to mediation is evaluative, facilitative, or transformative. The mediators who work on public policy matters, including environmental disputes, were the most positive about the opportunity for creativity in their work, considerably more so than those mediators whose practice is primarily business/commercial. The mediators' views of the future of mediation are remarkably similar — their general sense is that the type of mediation that takes place in the shadow of the courts is likely to increase and to become even more routinized than it is at present. Several respondents told us that they also expect to see substantial growth in the use of mediation to resolve public policy issues. Many of these mediators predicted that this type of mediation is likely to be carried out by organizational insiders, rather than outside interveners. As one mediator said, “Maybe there's a new set of mediation roles for people within traditional institutions, not just for free‐standing neutrals.”     

论东盟对中美的对冲外交困境及其原因

东盟自成立起一直在大国的包围中求生存发展。面对当前地区内中美两个大国，东盟试图实施对冲外交，以期通过两面下注来减低风险。本文认为，东盟对中美的对冲外交已陷入困境。对冲外交并未使东盟获得预想中的关键地位，反而使中美两国更难认识到东盟在解决地区问题中的重要性，中美坚持以“双边”方式在该地区活动，从而对东盟的一体化产生负面作用。东盟对冲外交陷入困境的根本原因在于其“弱国组织，实力受制”这一结构性矛盾，致使各成员国出于利益考虑不得不选择自己的依托对象，使其对冲外交的实施难以形成合力；实力不足的现状也难以使其在中美两大国的棋局上占据太多比重，使对冲外交的操作空间非常有限。     

Superpower and Small-State Mediation in the Qatar Gulf Crisis

ABSTRACT

The Qatar Gulf crisis of 2017 saw a number of mediation initiatives, including those of the United States and Kuwait. However, the two countries present two substantially distinct models of third-party intervention: superpower mediation (the United States) and small-state mediation (Kuwait). Comparing the two types of intervention in this crisis in terms of their ability to de-escalate tension and effectively resolve the Gulf crisis with respect to three variables – timing of mediation, leverage of the mediator (hard power versus legitimacy) and interest of the mediator – it would seem that small-state mediation has been more effective in crisis de-escalation, while superpower mediation has further exacerbated the crisis.     

A Crowded Stage: Liabilities and Benefits of Multiparty Mediation

In today's environment, the international response to conflict often entails multiple mediators as well as other third-party actors such as peacekeeping forces, development agencies, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and lone operators. Such a profusion of actors has often made peacemaking efforts messy, difficult, and at times chaotic. The vicious nature of internal conflicts, however, and the high costs for the international community of failing to prevent or end war make it critical to understand these multiple third-party interventions. The principal question is: do these multiparty mediations help or hurt the cause of peace? If the answer to that question is that a multiplicity of third parties can hurt a peace process, does the solution lie in stopping multiple third-party attempts at peacemaking? On the other hand, if the answer is that multiparty mediation can help, are there ways of increasing the chances that it will?     

Groups,Decision Rules,and Negotiation Outcomes: Simulating the Negotiator's Dilemma

The negotiator's dilemma is a vexing problem (structurally similar to the prisoner's dilemma), but it is made more complicated by the fact that many negotiations involve teams of negotiators. Although it is widely recognized that the behavior of groups of people can deviate in important ways from the behavior of individuals, the implications of this for the negotiator's dilemma are unclear. For this article, I have used a computer simulation to explore the impact of different decision rules (majority rule, consensus, and weakest link) on how the approach of groups to negotiations might differ. The results suggest that the use of different decision rules can greatly complicate negotiations. While the majority rule is quite versatile in multiple contexts, a pairing of weakest link and consensus decision rules is highly problematic for finding a negotiated settlement.     

试析日本安倍政府在美伊间的调停外交

自2018年5月美国退出伊核协议后,美伊关系持续紧张,导致中东局势动荡不定。对此,日本安倍政府基于保障日本的能源安全和经济利益、提高日本国际声誉与推动国内修宪进程等多重战略考量,决定在美伊间开展调停外交。美伊两国对调停者的需求、伊朗对日本的信任以及欧洲国家调停者身份的削弱,也为安倍政府实施调停外交提供了可行条件。安倍政府调停外交的实施路径主要包括日伊首脑互访、日伊高层会谈、日美密切沟通以及游说中东国家等,但其成效受到日本自身局限性、美伊矛盾复杂性、调停策略表面性、调停进程不确定性等因素制约,难以促使美伊关系得到实质性缓和。     

International Mediation and Social Networks: The Importance of Indirect Ties

This study extends the previous literature on actors' incentives in conflict management by examining how direct and indirect links between fighting parties influence the prospects for mediation onset from a social network perspective. The paper argues, contrary to existing research, that direct links, i.e., bilateral ties between warring parties, do not notably increase the likelihood of mediation. Rather, indirect links, i.e., ties that connect two states via one or more than one third party to each other, are more likely to determine whether a conflict sees mediation. Although direct links can indicate mutual interests, shared preferences, and decreased uncertainty between the warring parties, these ties either lose importance or become cut off when states enter a conflict. By contrast, indirect ties create a social network that involves outside parties in the dispute process, and indirect ties increase the exchange of information between belligerents and potential mediators and the chances that third parties will have a vital interest in intervention. My empirical analysis using conflict and social network data in 1946–1995 provides strong support for the theory.     

Intramedia Mediation: The Cumulative and Complementary Effects of News Media Use

This study focuses on one often overlooked political communication-based media effect, intramedia mediation, and the indirect effects that stem from relationships that exist among various forms of media use. Data from a 2000 national Annenberg election panel survey are used to assess a series of relationships between television and newspaper public affairs use and how these forms of media consumption affect citizens' knowledge of presidential campaign endorsements. The indirect effects that stem from the relationships that exist among these two forms of media use reflect the cumulative and complementary functions of mass communication consumption across time. An analysis of intramedia mediation in coordination with the study of the direct effects of public affairs media use on this study's outcome variable produces substantially larger overall effects for both forms of news use. Thus, the study of intramedia mediation contributes to a better understanding of the full range of media influences on a given outcome variable over the course of a political campaign. Ramifications of these findings are outlined and future lines of research summarized.     

Deconstructing Mediation: A Case Study of the Cod Wars

In this study, I explore the mediation techniques used by an international organization (IO) to settle an international crisis. Specifically, I have focused on the use of formal and informal techniques with a case study of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) mediation during the Cod Wars between Iceland and the United Kingdom. My analysis indicates that a combination of both formal and informal mediation techniques was instrumental in resolving the Cod Wars conflict. Further research would clarify whether this finding can be generalized to other cases of NATO mediation and interventions of third parties in addition to NATO.     

Dimensions of Chinese foreign conflict and cooperation: A research note

Key mediation attributes, such as mediating actors, the strategy they choose, and previous mediation experiences, are widely thought to influence the nature of a conflict management outcome. But how and when these features shape outcomes is not a straightforward matter, and a standard analysis of these factors does not lead to their widely anticipated results. Why? We develop a new analytical framework that argues that a dispute's intensity alters the conflict management processes. Furthermore, in order to observe this variation, we also need to expand the traditional, dichotomous notion of conflict management outcomes (success or failure) to include a fuller range of observed results. Using the most recent International Conflict Management data set and our new analytical framework, we analyze the effect on conflict management outcome of mediator (a) identity, (b) strategy and (c) history. We find that directive strategies and international mediators are effective in resolving high intensity conflicts, procedural strategies and regional mediators are effective in resolving low intensity conflicts, and that mediation history always affects resolution. Our results have implications for both the study and practice of international dispute mediation.     

文化外交在当代中俄关系中的作用

冷战结束后,和平与发展成为时代主题,文化因素对国际关系的影响日益凸显,并由此产生了一种新型外交方式——文化外交。中俄两国比邻而居,有着近四百年的交往史,文化交流更是在其中起到重要作用。随着文化外交日益受到各国政府的重视,中俄文化交流不断擦出新火花。实践证明,文化外交在巩固中俄两国高层政治关系、推动经贸合作和扩大民间交往方面有不可替代的作用。     

On the Communicative Underpinnings of Campaign Effects: Presidential Debates,Citizen Communication,and Polarization in Evaluations of Candidates

Previous research on presidential debates has largely focused on direct effects of debates on viewers. By expanding the context of debate effects to post-debate citizen communication, this study moves beyond the direct and immediate impact of debate viewing and investigates indirect effects of debate viewing mediated by debate-induced citizen communication. Results from two-wave panel data collected before and after the 2004 presidential debates show that, as previous literature has suggested, debate viewing leads to partisan reinforcement and that these debate effects are in part mediated through post-debate political conversation. These findings provide a new layer of complexity to our understanding of the mechanisms underlying debate effects.     

The utopia of suburbia: the unchanging past and limitless future in Doraemon

The long-running Japanese children's media franchise Doraemon is commonly interpreted both inside and outside academic discourse as a representation of a positive vision of the future, an analysis based partially on its portrayal of a lovable robot. This view is supported by the series' use of ‘science’ to represent unlimited accessibility, and the branding of the series as a companion to children's scientific education. Doraemon's celebration of the future's boundless potential is complicated, however, by the impulse in recent works to reject the same notion of ‘progress’ on which the series relies. The works remain frozen in a romanticised vision of 1960s’ Japan, and have come to connote childhood nostalgia while presenting characters that do not grow or change over time. In the 2008 film Nobita to Midori no Kyojinden, the perpetual act of returning that defines much of Doraemon today is taken to a dramatic extreme, as a pre-modern ideal becomes the blueprint for both morality and might. Doraemon constructs temporal mixtures that simultaneously glorify both the past and the future.     

A survey of research foci and paradigms in media and communication Master's dissertations and doctoral theses in South Africa

This study set out to evaluate the foci and paradigms of research in media and communication at Master's and doctoral levels in South Africa. A sample of 241 dissertations and theses in the communication, journalism and media studies programmes of nine universities, from 2004 to 2013, categorised into historically black, historically white Afrikaans-medium and English-medium, were obtained from the databases of the National Research Foundation and some of the universities. The findings show that the production of PhD theses is far lower than that of Master's dissertations. Qualitative design tended to be the dominant approach adopted, followed by a mixed methods approach, and the quantitative approach. The focus of most of the theses is journalism, followed by general media studies. The findings further show that historically black universities bottom the table in the production of related theses and dissertations, while white English-speaking universities top the list. Also, there is evidence of a relationship between the historical origin/language of the universities and the research designs adopted, as well as the research focus of the theses. The article recommends, among others, the need for a clear-cut statement of research methodologies and designs in such theses and dissertations, greater motivation for enrolment in PhD programmes, a strengthening of historically black universities for better performance in postgraduate research, and the incorporation of the experimental method in media research in South Africa.     

Media-usage patterns and political knowledge of NWU students: The 2009 election

Abstract

One of the central elements in a sustainable democracy is an informed and independent voters’ corps who is knowledgeable regarding democratic values and the policies of different parties, and who participates in democracy. The literature suggests that voters who are more heavy media users are also more politically knowledgeable. It follows that the media have an important informational role in a democracy. Against this background, the media usage patterns, media usage perceptions and political knowledge of the students of the North-West University on the Potchefstroom, Mafikeng and Vaal Triangle campuses were investigated during May 2009. This was done in the form of a quantitative survey that allowed students to report their real perceptions, experiences and knowledge levels. Questionnaires were administered in a self-administered style to avoid interviewer bias and to increase truthful self-reporting. Trained field workers used certain guidelines to ensure that the sample was representative of NWU students. The study found that students on all three campuses had poor levels of political knowledge. It was furthermore established that they were light users of media and did not often engage in political discussions with peers. On all three campuses, for political information television was the preferred medium, followed by radio. Although there were only weak correlations, it would seem that the students who were heavier users of media, were also more politically knowledgeable.