The causal nexus of interest rate policy and gold market: The case of Turkey

The relevance of gold to the financial market and global economies is responsible for the commodity's (gold) link with financial instruments such as the oil price, currency and gold price, stock index, and other commodities price. In this case, the causal analysis between the interest rate and the gold price has been examined in a novel approach. This study uses the standard Granger causality approach to test the relationship for the economy of Turkey over the period June 1, 2000–June 1, 2017. The results revealed that while gold price depends on daily announcements, demand, and supply, the interest rate depends on some factors such as the monetary policy of the central bank, inflation rate, and different macroeconomic parameters. Thus, the causality between the two financial instruments is observed to be significant. According to the conducted statistical analysis, the interest rate and gold price have interaction between each other. Because there is insufficient evidence in the extant literature that establishes a causality relationship between the two variables, the current study is believed to enhance policy directives and contribute to the financial literature. Considering the peculiar situation of the Turkish financial market, this novel approach presents significant policy directions.     

Stock prices,inflation, and output in India: An empirical analysis

This study focusses on the negative relationship between inflation and stock returns (the puzzle of fisher hypothesis). Fama hypothesis examined the relationship between macroeconomic variable and stock return and found the strong relationship between the real output and stock prices. This study revisits Fama's hypothesis from the period 1990M1 to 2016M6 for emerging country perspective. The results documented that there is a significant negative relationship between inflation and output whereas positive between stock price and output.     

Interest group activity and long-run stock market performance

This paper provides evidence that interest group activity is negatively related to aggregate stock market performance. In particular, the findings imply that a one percent increase in the number of interest groups in a country is associated with a reduction in average annual stock market returns of roughly 2–5%, and a reduction in the volatility of annual stock returns of roughly 6–14%. In addition, the findings indicate that many of the same fundamentals that drive economic growth also explain stock market performance.     

What stock market returns to expect for the future?

In evaluating proposals for reforming Social Security that involve stock investments, the Office of the Chief Actuary (OCACT) has generally used a 7.0 percent real return for stocks. The 1994-96 Advisory Council specified that OCACT should use that return in making its 75-year projections of investment-based reform proposals. The assumed ultimate real return on Treasury bonds of 3.0 percent implies a long-run equity premium of 4.0 percent. There are two equity-premium concepts: the realized equity premium, which is measured by the actual rates of return; and the required equity premium, which investors expect to receive for being willing to hold available stocks and bonds. Over the past two centuries, the realized premium was 3.5 percent on average, but 5.2 percent for 1926 to 1998. Some critics argue that the 7.0 percent projected stock returns are too high. They base their arguments on recent developments in the capital market, the current high value of the stock market, and the expectation of slower economic growth. Increased use of mutual funds and the decline in their costs suggest a lower required premium, as does the rising fraction of the American public investing in stocks. The size of the decrease is limited, however, because the largest cost savings do not apply to the very wealthy and to large institutional investors, who hold a much larger share of the stock market's total value than do new investors. These trends suggest a lower equity premium for projections than the 5.2 percent of the past 75 years. Also, a declining required premium is likely to imply a temporary increase in the realized premium because a rising willingness to hold stocks tends to increase their price. Therefore, it would be a mistake during a transition period to extrapolate what may be a temporarily high realized return. In the standard (Solow) economic growth model, an assumption of slower long-run growth lowers the marginal product of capital if the savings rate is constant. But lower savings as growth slows should partially or fully offset that effect. The present high stock prices, together with projected slow economic growth, are not consistent with a 7.0 percent return. With a plausible level of adjusted dividends (dividends plus net share repurchases), the ratio of stock value to gross domestic product (GDP) would rise more than 20-fold over 75 years. Similarly, the steady-state Gordon formula--that stock returns equal the adjusted dividend yield plus the growth rate of stock prices (equal to that of GDP)--suggests a return of roughly 4.0 percent to 4.5 percent. Moreover, when relative stock values have been high, returns over the following decade have tended to be low. To eliminate the inconsistency posed by the assumed 7.0 percent return, one could assume higher GDP growth, a lower long-run stock return, or a lower short-run stock return with a 7.0 percent return on a lower base thereafter. For example, with an adjusted dividend yield of 2.5 percent to 3.0 percent, the market would have to decline about 35 percent to 45 percent in real terms over the next decade to reach steady state. In short, either the stock market is overvalued and requires a correction to justify a 7.0 percent return thereafter, or it is correctly valued and the long-run return is substantially lower than 7.0 percent (or some combination). This article argues that the "overvalued" view is more convincing, since the "correctly valued" hypothesis implies an implausibly small equity premium. Although OCACT could adopt a lower rate for the entire 75-year period, a better approach would be to assume lower returns over the next decade and a 7.0 percent return thereafter.     

Dynamics of exchange rate and stock price volatility: Evidence from India

The article examines causal relationship between exchange rate and stock price volatility. We use daily data from February 2, 2015 to August 30, 2019 to estimate variables employed in ARCH/GARCH, and cross correlation. It gives a feedback that effect between the conditional mean and variance of exchange rate and stock price volatility. The stock market has brought more capital inflow rupee that appreciate while capital moves out of the monetary system rupee depreciate. The Reserve Bank of India has a policy to encourage and to bring huge inflows instead of outflows.     

Climate politics in hard times: How local economic shocks influence MPs attention to climate change

Most countries struggle to implement CO₂ reducing policies. Implementation is politically difficult since it typically forces politicians to trade-off different concerns. The literature on how parties and members of parliament (MPs) handle these trade-offs is sparse. We use structural topic models to study how MPs in an oil dependent environment responded to a shock in the oil price that created spatially concentrated costs of climate policies. We leverage the rapid oil price drop between parliamentary sessions and MPs’ constituency adherence in a difference-in-differences framework to identify if MPs respond differently to variation in the salience of trade-offs. We find that MPs facing high political costs of climate policies tried to avoid environmental topics, while less affected MPs talked more about investments in green energy when the oil price declined. Our results suggest that the oil price bust created a ‘window of opportunity’ for advocates of the ‘ green shift’.     

The economic value of military connections in Turkey

Can financial connections to the military provide economic value in democratic environments? We address this question by studying whether firms in which the Turkish military had a controlling financial interest earned abnormally high stock returns on the Istanbul stock exchange. Our findings from event studies are that this is indeed the case. We infer that militaries can retain substantial power to influence economic policy from behind the scenes even after formally transferring it to democratically elected leaders. The paper contributes to the literature in public choice by demonstrating econometrically that the military can be a major rent seeking actor even in democratic environments.     

Partisan politics and stock market performance: The effect of expected government partisanship on stock returns in the 2002 German federal election

Rational partisan theory suggests that firms perform better under right- than left-leaning governments. In the pre-election time, investors should anticipate these effects of government partisanship. This is the first study to investigate such anticipated partisan effects in Germany. Applying conditional volatility models we analyze the impact of expected government partisanship on stock market performance in the 2002 German federal election. Our results show that small-firm stock returns were positively (negatively) linked to the probability of a right- (left-) leaning coalition winning the election. Moreover, we find that volatility increased as the electoral prospects of right-leaning parties improved, while greater electoral uncertainty had a volatility-reducing effect.     

Presidential Elections and the Stock Market: Comparing Markov-Switching and Fractionally Integrated GARCH Models of Volatility

Bumba Mukherjee Department of Political Science, Florida State University, 554 Bellamy Building, Tallahassee, FL 32306 e-mail: smukherj{at}mailer.fsu.edu Existing research on electoral politics and financial marketspredicts that when investors expect left parties—Democrats(US), Labor (UK)—to win elections, market volatility increases.In addition, current econometric research on stock market volatilitysuggests that Markov-switching models provide more accuratevolatility forecasts and fit stock price volatility data betterthan linear or nonlinear GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditionalheteroskedasticity) models. Contrary to the existing literature,we argue here that when traders anticipate that the Democraticcandidate will win the presidential election, stock market volatilitydecreases. Using two data sets from the 2000 U.S. presidentialelection, we test our claim by estimating several GARCH, exponentialGARCH (EGARCH), fractionally integrated exponential GARCH (FIEGARCH),and Markov-switching models. We also conduct extensive forecastingtests—including RMSE and MAE statistics as well as realizedvolatility regressions—to evaluate these competing statisticalmodels. Results from forecasting tests show, in contrast toprevailing claims, that GARCH and EGARCH models provide substantiallymore accurate forecasts than the Markov-switching models. Estimatesfrom all the statistical models support our key prediction thatstock market volatility decreases when traders anticipate aDemocratic victory.     

Currency convertibility, cost of capital control and capital account liberalization in China

This paper provides a synthetic view of the capital account liberalization, capital control and currency convertibility issues in China. A quantitative analysis following Henry’s study¹ fails to provide clear links between liberalization, diminishing capital controls and Chinese stock market returns. An institutional explanation is then offered to complement the quantitative analysis. We suggest that the property rights regime is an indispensable institutional variable when studying this topic. Originating from the current property rights regime; price distortion, moral hazard and monetary overhang are the main impediments towards capital account liberalization and full convertibility. Therefore, property rights reform should be given the first priority in Chinese economic reform. He is the author ofProperty Rights, Renminbi Full Convertibility and Economic Development [Chanquan Zhidu, Renminbi Ziyou Duihuan yu Jingji Fazhan] (Wuhan, China: Wuhan University Press, 2003). This research is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project No. 70273030). The authors thank Dr. Sujian Guo, Mr. Robin Child and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and Miss Cate Bain and Mrs. Patricia Merton for their proofreading. The authors are responsible for any remaining errors.     

Inflationary effects of oil price shocks in Indian economy

Stabilising inflation around certain preconceived level remains the predominant objective of monetary authorities all over the world as its variability has crucial ramifications on the real economy. However, the effective operation of monetary policy to this end largely hinges on the nature and dynamics of inflation both in the short‐run and long‐run. In this context, the present study focuses on theoretical investigation of how crude oil price fluctuations affect inflation in a real economy. Moreover, the study examines the nature of relationship between crude oil price fluctuations and inflation and its impact with reference to Indian economy. The study suggest that, in India, although the price of petroleum products are insulated against international crude oil price fluctuations by way of subsidies in order to curb inflation, in the long run, inflation manifest itself in the form of worsening fiscal deficit and undermine the sustainability of public debt. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Corporate campaign contributions and abnormal stock returns after presidential elections

Contributions by investor-owned companies play major roles in financing the campaigns of candidates for elective office in the United States. We look at the presidential level and analyze contributions by companies before an election and their stock market performance following US presidential elections from 1992 to 2004. We find that companies experienced abnormal positive post-election returns with (i) a higher percentage of contributions given to the eventual winner and (ii) with a higher total contribution given. Hypothetical portfolios of the 30 largest corporate contributors formed according to (i) the percentage of contributions given to the winner in a presidential election and (ii) the total contribution (divided by market capitalization) would have earned significant abnormal returns in the two years after an election. While all results hold for Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, they are stronger by a magnitude of two to three under W. Bush.     

THE EFFECT OF THE CHILD-CARE CREDIT ON LOW-AND MIDDLE-INCOME TAXPAYERS' PURCHASES OF CHILD CARE

The child‐ and dependent‐care credit in the Internal Revenue Code is intended to encourage the consumption of commercial day‐care services. This research finds, through econometric analysis of tax returns from 1983 and 1987, that reducing child care's after‐tax price increases child‐care consumption by low‐ and middle‐income taxpayers who purchase commercial child‐care services.     

Culture,equality and polemic

Abstract

The Black-Scholes-Merton formula has been put to widespread use by options traders because it provides a means of calculating the theoretically ‘correct’ price of stock options. Traders can therefore see whether the market price of stock options undervalues or overvalues them compared with their hypothetical Black-Scholes-Merton price, before choosing to buy or sell options accordingly. As a consequence of this close relationship between options pricing theory and options pricing practice, a strong performativity loop was activated, whereby market prices quickly converged on the hypothetical Black-Scholes-Merton prices following the dissemination of the formula. The theory has therefore had significant real-world effects, but how should we characterize the initial instinct to derive the theory from a philosophy of science perspective? The two books under review suggest that a Kuhnian reading of the advancement of scientific knowledge might well be the most appropriate. But, on closer inspection, it becomes clear that the publication of the Black-Scholes-Merton formula should not be seen as a Kuhnian moment with paradigm-shaping attributes. It is shown that, at most, the formula acts as an important exemplar which, via its use in the training of options pricing theorists and options pricing practitioners, reinforces the entrenchment of finance theory within the orthodox economics worldview.     

'These mad abandon'd times'

Abstract

The existing academic literature on financialization points to multiple instances in which firms attempt to demonstrate the vitality of their stock-market position in ways which ultimately prove to be self-harming. I demonstrate, in the first instance as a matt er of immanent logic, that these actions are linked to the interplay of contradictory tendencies in the microfoundations of financialization. Under conditions of financialization, firms create additional sources of credit to capitalize their productive activities by driving their stock price into greater increases than the market average, thereby generating capital gains. Yet, the more it becomes public knowledge that the financing tricks used to inflate the stock price provide no productive benefit to the firm, the more it would seem to create incentives for fund managers to hold portfolios that replicate the stock market as a whole. In this way, they will minimize their exposure to financial misrepresentation. Such a stance undermines financialized business models, but it does in any case conform to fund managers’ basic theoretical training, which revolves around the logical demonstration that an individual stock cannot systematically out-perform the market average. I review the available empirical studies of fund manager decision-making to show that they find against the existence of a simple performativity loop operating between finance theory and fund manager behaviour. However, on many points the empirical evidence does confirm the theoretically derived conclusion concerning the potentially contradictory microfoundations of financialization. Fund managers often do act in a way which is consistent with finance theory's core claim that an index-tracking strategy represents the only equilibrium portfolio, even if this is only rarely as a result of the direct performativity of the theory.     

Leviathan resists: the endogenous relationship between privatization and firm performance

Using a panel dataset of privatized cement firms in Turkey, this paper models and finds support for the simultaneous relationship between privatization and firm performance. It is found that favorable short-run performance, weak market potential, higher employment, lower socio-economic development, concentrated voter preferences, and weaker representation of right-wing parties in the firms’ locality delay the timing of privatization. The paper also finds that privatization increases output in the medium-term by reducing the labor stock and promoting the adoption of more advanced technology, such that production shifts from constant to decreasing returns to scale.     

Risk and the National Industrial Recovery Act: An Empirical Evaluation

This paper examines the National Industrial Recovery Act of 1933 to see if the law helped “stabilize” the U.S. economy during the Great Depression. The test measures sample variances of the rates of return in stock price indices for six major U.S. industries as well as the overall stock market and compares those variances across five time periods. The statistics reveal that the NIRA did not reduce risks faced by these firms. Stocks for NIRA-regulated industries did not significantly decline in risk during the NIRA period, as compared with sample variance changes elsewhere during the Great Depression. The paper then interprets the results from a public choice point of view.     

Can we insure against political uncertainty? Evidence from the U.S. stock market

I show that shares currently traded on U.S. stock markets can be used to hedge political uncertainty. Focusing on the 2000 U.S. presidential election, I construct two “presidential portfolios” composed of selected stocks anticipated to fare differently under a Bush versus a Gore presidency. To construct these portfolios I use data on campaign contributions by publicly traded corporations and identify the major contributors on each side. Using daily observations for the six months before the election took place, I show that the excess returns of these portfolios with respect to overall market movements are significantly related to changes in electoral polls.     

Social Security: a financial appraisal for the median voter

Several explanations have been proposed for why voters continue to support unfunded social security systems. Browning (1975) suggests that the extremely large unfunded pension systems of most democracies depend on the existence of a voting majority composed of middle-aged and older people who fail to fully internalize the cost of financing the system. In fact, when voting, economically rational workers consider only their current and future contributions to the system and their expected pension benefits--not their past contributions, which they regard as sunk costs. If, for a majority of voters, the expected continuation return from social security exceeds the return from alternative assets, an unfunded social security system is politically sustainable. This article explores the validity of Browning's proposition by quantifying the returns that U.S. voters in presidential elections from 1964 to 1996 have obtained, or expect to obtain, from Social Security. Did "investments" in Social Security outperform alternative forms of investment, such as mutual funds or pension funds, for a majority of the voters? What can be expected for the future? The U.S. Social Security system redistributes income within age cohorts on the basis of sex, income, and marital status. To account for some of these features, the median voter is represented by a family unit whose members--a husband who accounts for 70 percent of household earnings and a wife who accounts for 30 percent--make joint economic and voting decisions. Thus, retirement and survival benefits paid out to the spouse of an insured worker can be included in the calculation of Social Security returns. Interval estimates of voters' family incomes from the U.S. Census Bureau were used to obtain the median voter's household earnings. The median voter's age is derived from the ages of those who voted in presidential elections, not from the ages of the entire electorate. The median voter's contributions to Social Security are the product of the joint employer/employee Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) tax rate and employee earnings. Data on actual contributions are available for median voters in the 1964 to 1976 elections; Social Security Administration (SSA) estimates are used for future tax rates and average wage growth rates. Data on actual old-age, retirement, and survivor benefits, as well as estimates of future benefits, are also available from SSA. Analysis of ex-post returns from "investing" in Social Security and from a buy-and-hold strategy applied to three alternative assets--the Standard & Poor's Composite Index (S&P), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and U.S. government bonds--shows surprising results. In 1964 and 1968, Social Security largely outperformed the other three assets. In 1972, Social Security and the stock market performed almost equally. In 1976, however, the median voter would have been better off in the stock market. The expected returns for median voters in later elections cannot be directly compared with realized returns from alternative assets. However, estimates range from 5.7 percent in 1984 to 7.0 percent in 1996 and thus compare favorably with average returns of 5.6 percent for S&P, 5.3 percent for DJIA, and 2.1 percent for government bonds over the 1964-1996 period. Although these findings must be taken with caution since they compare ex-post returns, they show that, despite a continuous reduction in profitability, Social Security still represents a safe, high-return asset for a majority of families.     

Funding Levels and Gender in Public Pension Plans

Using a comprehensive sample of 2002 and 2005 U.S. public retirement systems, we found that public pension plan underfunding grew dramatically in these years despite a good economy, increasing state tax revenues, and strong stock market returns on average, plans were only 83% funded. Teacher plans and plans with the most retirees were more underfunded. We found no significant differences related to asset allocations or actuarial assumptions about inflation and rate of return. A primary factor associated with significantly lower underfunding was more female active participants in the plan, suggesting another risk to women's retirement income.