(Non)equivalence in a federalism: Dual tax shares, flypaper effects and Leviathan

Among the best-known theorems of fiscal federalism is the presumed allocative and distributive equivalence between a lump-sum grant to a collectivity and a set of lump sum grants to the members of a collectivity. Interestingly, the simple elegance of the theorem is at odds with observed behavior. Grants to governments produce greater public spending than does tax reduction. Explanations of this "flypaper effect" range from misspecified econometric modeling to presumed behavior based on fiscal illusion. In this paper we show that theoretical equivalence exists in a model that recognizes only one tax share, the citizen voter's local tax share. When the model is expanded to include voters' federal tax shares as well as local taxes, non-equivalence and the flypaper effect become the rule, not the exception.     

British open source intelligence (OSINT) and the Holocaust in the Soviet Union: persecution,extermination and partisan warfare

Where does British open source intelligence (OSINT) fit into the intelligence debate surrounding Allied knowledge of the Holocaust? In particular what can this source of intelligence tell us in regards to the opening of the extermination phase of the Holocaust in the Soviet Union? Were the Allies conclusions being falsely influenced by their own OSINT analysts? Or conversely did OSINT provide further evidence (alongside SIGINT decodes) that the Nazis were now committing mass genocide. This article explores these questions by examining the FRPS/FORD OSINT reports from the civilian ruled territories of (and those intended for) the Reichskommissariate Ostland and Ukraine.     

Administrative (de)centralization,performance equity,and outcome achievement in rural contexts: An empirical study of U.S. child welfare systems

Whether public services are better delivered through centralized or decentralized administrative systems is one of the most enduring debates in public administration. This article contributes to the debate with a study of program outcome achievement in U.S. child welfare services. We examine whether centralized state‐administered or decentralized county‐administered systems are more successful at realizing desired outcomes, which exhibit greater performance equity, and which are more successful at securing program outcomes in rural settings. Using a coarsened exact matching approach to quasi‐experimental research, we find that centralized child welfare systems exhibit greater success at achieving desired outcomes—in both rural contexts and overall. No discernible difference is found in centralized and decentralized systems' performance equity; outcome disparities exist under both structures. The study thus lends credence to centralization arguments, but at the same time cautions that centralized administration is not a structural panacea.     

(Un)principled principals, (un)principled agents: The differential effects of managerial civil service reforms on corruption in developing and OECD countries

Do management practices have similar anticorruption effects in OECD and developing countries? Despite prominent cautions against “New Zealand” reforms which enhance managerial discretion in developing countries, scholars have not assessed this question statistically. Our article addresses this gap through a conjoint experiment with 6,500 public servants in three developing countries and one OECD country. Our experiment assesses Weberian relative to managerial approaches to recruitment, job stability, and pay. We argue that in developing countries with institutionalized corruption and weak rule of law—yet not OECD countries without such features—“unprincipled” principals use managerial discretion over hiring, firing, and pay to favor “unprincipled” bureaucratic agents who engage in corruption. Our results support this argument: managerial practices are associated with greater bureaucratic corruption in our surveyed developing countries, yet have little effect in our OECD country. Alleged “best practices” in public management in OECD countries may thus be “worst practices” in developing countries.     

One (Slender) Tree,Many (Social) Roots: Revisiting Immigrant Associations Through a Case Study on Ecuadorians in Italy

Abstract

Immigrant associations are often assumed to be social phenomena already ‘out there’, while their developmental trajectories and social roots are relatively understudied. Much literature has explored their contribution to the socio-political integration of newcomers, lumping together all of their non-political activities as ‘co-ethnic sociability’. However, their micro-social roots deserve more attention, and the identity and symbolic dimensions of their initiatives are worth investigating further. Based on a literature review and an ethnography of a group of Ecuadorians living in Northern Italy, we revisit the factors affecting the development of immigrant associations as well as their primary fields of activity. While these associations are expressive of immigrants’ cultural backgrounds and basically deal with informal sociability, they also have an implicitly political dimension, as they mirror immigrants’ struggle for public visibility and recognition. A better appreciation of the political significance of immigrant associations (despite their shortcomings and political marginality), and of their evolving roots, is necessary to understand why, and how, newcomers such as the Ecuadorians in our case study may (or may not) join them.     

How parties led by a woman redefine their positions: Empirical evidence for women's green,alternative and libertarian agenda

This article investigates how the sex of party heads impacts party positions and uncovers that parties led by a woman modify their stances on sociocultural but not economic debates. I argue that this pattern is a consequence of dissimilar gender gaps in policy preferences across the two ideological dimensions at the elite level. The empirical evidence, based on data for 19 developed democracies around the world between 1995 and 2018, reveals that parties led by a woman tend to emphasise green, alternative and libertarian issues. In particular, anti-growth, environmental protection and freedom and human rights become more prominent elements of party manifestos under women's leadership. Overall, these findings stress the importance of critical actors and the conditions under which the presence of women in political offices translates into responsiveness towards female citizens.     

Withdrawing (from) waste,and the end of law: reflections on DeLillo’s prophecies in Mao II (1991) and Underworld (1997)

ABSTRACT

An often heard phrase these days is “There is something about this chaotic 21st century of ours ...”. This “something”, it is argued here, lies at the heart of a new form of life which has become predominant in recent decades in globalizing culture: the life of aspiring, radicalizing sovereigns. This “something”, then, could the called the end of Law. In an age of aspiring and radicalizing sovereigns the Law, indeed law in all its forms and shapes, has become not just an irrelevance, but a nuisance and embarrassment as well. One of the manifestations of this irreverent sovereign attitude is the growing inability to accept waste, that is, an inability to live with all that generates waste (i.e. Law), and an inability to live with all that is waste. Waste, i.e. the accumulation of spent potential, is not what the aspiring, radicalizing sovereign wants. The sovereign's desires are all about conserving all potential. Although this new form of life has become manifest only very recently, it had been predicted by the novelist Don DeLillo in his novels Mao II and Underworld. The themes and images in both these novels are the focus of this contribution.     

Guilty by disassociation (and innocent by association): The impact of relevant and irrelevant analogies on political judgments

We investigate how associative (X is similar to Y) and disassociative (X is different from Y) analogies may affect judgments of political target stimuli they are employed to embellish. In an experimental study it was hypothesized that the judgmental relevance of the analogy-target relation is an important determinant of the effect of the analogy on subsequent judgments. It was reasoned that for irrelevant analogies the (dis)associative relation would be less efficiently encoded and utilized than the evaluative tone of the analogy itself, resulting in relative assimilation to the connotation of irrelevant analogies, even where the analogy was actually disassociated from the target. Where the analogy-target relation was relevant to judgments of the target, these judgments were predicted to follow the specified analogy-target relation for both associative and disassociative analogies. The predictions were supported. The relation of these results to social judgment models and to the rhetorical devices used to influence political judgment is discussed.     

Inflation,recession and the federal budget deficit (or,blaming economic problems on a statistical mirage)

Policy proposals to balance the budget and to limit government spending assume that budget deficits cause substantial harm, either increasing inflation or crowding out private borrowing from credit markets. These assertions have the support of policymakers across the breadth of the political spectrum, and dominate current political debate on macroeconomic policy. However, macroeconomic theory fails to provide a clearcut causal connection between budget deficits and larger economic problems such as inflation and recession. Thus, policies could be enacted that attack the symptoms instead of the causes of the deficit.We use the Granger causality test to find the causal relationships between budget deficits and inflation, GNP, and private investment respectively, for seventeen OECD countries for the period 1949–1981. Deficits do not cause changes in these variables; rather there is weak evidence that inflation and recession cause deficits. This implies that deficits are a symptom rather than a cause of inflation and reduced national output. So, if our goal is to reduce inflation and increase output, we should look to more direct policies than reducing deficits.An earlier version of this article was presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Society for Public Administration, New York, April 16–19, 1983.     

Macroeconomic performance,political trust and the Great Recession: A multilevel analysis of the effects of within‐country fluctuations in macroeconomic performance on political trust in 15 EU countries, 1999–2011

Recent cross‐national comparative studies have found no effect of countries’ macroeconomic performances on trust in national political institutions, once political explanations (most notably corruption) are taken into account. Although political trust is not determined by the comparison of national economic performance to other countries, it is argued in this article that it is affected by comparisons to their own past performance. In a multilevel, fixed effects analysis of Eurobarometer data (21 waves in 15 European Union Member States between 1999 and 2011) the extent to which within‐country variations in economic performance affect political trust longitudinally is tested. Three major conclusions are reached. First, within‐country, longitudinal changes in performance (growth, deficits, unemployment and inflation) affect political trust. Second, the impact of macroeconomic performance is stronger among the lower educated. Third, even in times of economic duress, budgetary deficits tend to undermine political trust.     

Cognitive information levels,voter preferences,and local partisan political activity: A field experimental study on the effects of timing and order of message presentation

This article is based upon a factorial design field experiment conducted during the 1980 election campaign. The experiment was conducted to assess whether there is an optimal message strategy available to local party workers in their efforts to inform and persuade voters. The study assesses whether the timing of communications, i.e., near or distant to election day, and the order of message presentation, i.e., whether presenting important information early or late in a communication, have any effects upon voters' information levels and electoral decisions. The analysis supports an interpretation of recency effects, i.e., information presented last in a partisan appeal was more likely to facilitate information and persuasion effects than information positioned first. However, this finding was conditioned upon the timing of message presentation with appeals referencing familiar partisan material only effective near to election day and appeals referencing less familiar and nonpartisan material only effective further from election day.     

我国治理研究的反思（2007—2018）：概念、理论与方法

治理既是当代国家建设的重要实践,也是社会科学中的前沿议题。中国的治理研究已经涌现大量文献,有必要进行反思和评估。通过对CSSCI数据库(2007—2018)中相关学术文章进行分析发现,我国的治理研究在整体上存在四个方面的问题:语境疏离,西方语境和中国语境下的治理概念缺乏有效对话;重规范轻经验,非经验性研究与经验性研究结构失衡;理论化水平总体不高,面临缺失、褊狭与依赖等困境;方法有待改进,存在匮乏、失衡、粗疏等问题。未来研究应着力在治理概念达成共识的基础上,进一步推进经验性研究,加强理论的积累与创新,注重方法的多元与质量。     

制度、利益与观念:男女同龄退休政策改革研究——基于历史制度主义视角

从历史制度主义视角分析,三种主要政治因素及其相互作用下的政治行为决定着男女同龄退休政策改革的过程和结果:制度因素,包括宪法的原则性规定、行政决策制度、妇联组织的地位与参与方式等;利益因素,女干部、女工人及以男性为主体的决策部门所具有的不同利益;观念因素,在社会发展背景下利益各方对性别平等和退休年龄关系的理解也即对实现男女平等途径的不同认识。由于社会性别观念的深入、社会性别主流化在我国的发展及人口老龄化背景下的劳动力问题和养老问题等常量的变化,男女同龄退休政策的改革将成为可能。