An analysis of asymmetric effect of federal transfers across Indian states

This study empirically examines the asymmetric effect of federal transfers in India using a panel dataset of 18 states from 2000–2001 to 2019–2020. In mapping the asymmetric effect of federal transfers on subnational spending across the Indian states, we test it in the extended ‘flypaper effect’ framework, examining whether subnational expenditures respond in the same way to changes in federal transfers. To quantify the extent of the asymmetric effect on the subnational expenditure, we employed the panel non-linear ARDL model. The results suggest that subnational spending has a greater asymmetric response to the increase in federal transfers than to a decrease. At the disaggregate level, ten out of 18 states have a fiscal replacement kind of asymmetric effect in any spending specifications. But only three validate it in the capital and development spending, and seven states validating in the non-development expenditure on the revenue accounts. Replacing the cut in federal transfers with other revenue sources that prioritise non-development spending over development spending is problematic.     

Does financial inclusion stimulate India's economy: A panel data analysis

The study empirically examines the connections between three different measures of financial inclusion with output growth across the states of India. Applying the panel co-integration and error correction model for 26 states and 4 union territories, it concludes that all three measures of financial development with gross fixed capital formation enhance real net state GDP significantly in the long run. Further, a significant reduction in the real net state GDP is also observed during the Global Financial Crisis. This study is important for the Indian policymakers to formulate effective financial inclusion policies leading to the overall development of the Indian economy.     

The measurement of electoral competition,with application to Indian states

We investigate the measurement of three distinct, but related dimensions of electoral competition in a majoritarian electoral system: contestability in the struggle for governing power; competition among candidates at the constituency level; and competition among existing parties at the level of the legislature. At each step, the analysis is made concrete by calculating our preferred indexes of these dimensions of competitiveness for 14 major Indian states from 1972 to 2009 (and from 1952 in some cases), while comparing them to others that have been widely used, though not always calculated for Indian states. We also use our preferred indexes to study the importance of the level of development for an understanding of how competition has evolved across the states. The paper concludes by posing questions about the measurement of competitiveness, in general and in the Indian case, that arise in the course of our investigation.     

Education,human error,and road crash risk: An empirical investigation in the Indian states

This study examines the road accident rates from 29 Indian states and 6 Union Territories during 2006–2015. In this paper, we have employed several empirical techniques such as regression, generalized method of moments (GMM), and threshold regression models to examine how education and attitude of the drivers impact the road accident rates. In our empirical analysis, we demonstrate that lawless driving is found to be positive and statistically significant while incorporating both state and year effects. We also find some interesting result in the context of education and road accidents. We notice positive relationship between higher education and road accident rates across Indian states, which tells us highly educated people are more prone to road accidents as compared with less educated people. In the threshold analysis, the study discovers the positive relationship between road injury and accidents caused by people with higher education, in cases of considering road injury rate from drunken driving as the threshold variable. There appears to be a large number of behavioral issues emanating from higher education, which contributes significantly to the road accident rates in the Indian states. Hence, there is a need for policy intervention.     

Fiscal Decentralization and Natural Disaster Mitigation: Evidence from the United States

How decentralized government structure influences public service delivery has been a major focus of debate in the public finance literature. In this paper, we empirically examine the effect of fiscal decentralization on natural disaster damages across the U.S. states. We construct a unique measure of decentralization using state and local government expenditures on natural resources, which include investment in flood control and mitigation measures, among others. Using state‐level panel data from 1982 to 2011, we find that states that are more decentralized in natural resource expenditures have experienced more economic losses from floods and storms. This effect is only pronounced in states that are at higher risks of flooding. Our findings suggest that fiscal decentralization may lead to inefficient protection against natural disasters and provide implications for the assignment of disaster management responsibilities across different levels of government in the U.S. federal system.     

Empirical examination of public debt sustainability in African economies: A panel data analysis

This study intends to investigate public debt sustainability across 29 Sub-Sahara African (SSA) economies, employing various econometric specifications, for the sampled years 1996–2020. The study employs Bohn's (Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint? Journal of monetary Economics, 54(7), pp.1837–1847.) framework of sustainability as the baseline model to assess public debt sustainability across the sampled Sub-Sahara African economies. As additional tests of public debt sustainability in order to support the baseline findings, the study also employs panel unit root and timeseries unit tests. The baseline findings from the OLS, panel quantile and instrumental panel quantile regressions show that public debt is sustainable across the panel of SSA economies. The positive and statistically significant response of primary balance under the Bohn's framework of sustainability manifest that the intertemporal budget constraint is not violated in the sampled economies. The consistency in the estimates under the OLS, panel quantile and instrumental panel quantile regressions also show that the estimates are robust throughout the estimation process. Also, utilizing the panel unit root test for public debt sustainability, the findings show that public debt is stationary over the sampled years which implies that intertemporal budget constraint holds and that public debt is sustainable across the sampled SSA economies. However, the timeseries analysis indicate that although majority of the SSA economies have sustainable public debt ratios, four countries namely Uganda, Sudan, Togo and Cote d'Ivoire have unsustainable public debt ratios. The study has important policy implications in terms of prudent public debt management and fiscal management for the sampled SSA economies.     

Identifying the causes of road traffic accidents in India: An empirical investigation

This study utilizes data for the period 2006–2015 to estimate the determinants of road fatality rates in the Indian states. We employ baseline regression, where the total traffic fatalities, total traffic injuries, rural road fatalities, and urban road fatalities are the functions of human errors in driving, weather conditions, and some control variables. This paper is exclusively focussed upon different sets of human‐driven factors in influencing the road fatality across the Indian states. Our empirical results show that reckless driving, defective motor conditions, bad weather, and reckless driving by bus, truck, and car drivers are found to cause road accidents. We further find that the increase in motorization rates and rash driving are the primary causes behind the road fatalities, and bad weather play a major role in causing road fatalities and injuries in urban areas. However, road fatalities are increasing; still, cases of under reporting, lack of proper road safety regulation, improper investigation procedures, increasing vehicle usages, and higher urbanization have made the matters quite worse in India.     

Tax exporting,federal deductibility,and state tax structure

This paper studies the interaction between the federal and state tax systems during the 1980s and, in particular, considers how the Tax Reform Act of 1986 affected state tax structure. Using a panel data set on state governments over a nine-year period, I estimate tax share equations for six categories of taxes. I find that the state personal income tax is sensitive to changes in its tax price, but find a much smaller sensitivity to changes in tax prices for the general sales tax. I then consider various reasons why the sales tax does not exhibit a sensitivity to changes in tax price and consider the implications of these results for policymakers. The regression results suggest that different income groups are concerned with different tax instruments. Moreover, the results motivate a possible benefit approach to taxation at the state level. Linking taxes, about which a particular income group is most concerned, to services received by that group might generate additional political support for state tax systems during a time when many states are facing fiscal crisis.     

Reconciling Individual and Aggregate Evidence Concerning Partisan Stability: Applying Time-Series Models to Panel Survey Data

Party identification has been studied extensively using bothindividual- and aggregate-level data. This paper attempts toformulate a statistical model that can account for the rangeof empirical generalizations that have emerged from aggregatetime series and panel surveys. Using Monte Carlo simulation,we show that only certain types of data generation processescan account for these empirical regularities. Deciding whichof the remaining types best explains the data means investigatingthe ways in which individual-level partisanship behaves overtime. Partisanship at the aggregate level tends to be highlyautocorrelated, reequilibrating slowly in the wake of each perturbation.Working downward from the analysis of aggregate data, previousresearchers argued that aggregate partisanship is fractionallyintegrated and contended that dynamics at the individual levelare therefore heterogeneous. Using data from three panel surveys,we present the first direct assessment of individual-level dynamics.We also investigate the hypothesis that these dynamics varyamong individuals, a claim that motivates much recent work onfractionally integrated time series. The model that best explainsthe observed characteristics of party identification is onein which individuals respond in similar ways to external shocks,reequilibrate rapidly thereafter, and seldom change their equilibriumlevel of partisan attachment.     

Managing Europe from home in Dublin,Athens and Helsinki: A comparative analysis

The article provides a comparative analysis of core executive adaptation to engagement with the European Union in three states: Ireland, Greece and Finland. To date, the substantive focus of the literature on executive adaptation has been on the question of convergence or continuing divergence of national responses. The dominant conclusion points to the continuing divergence of national responses. The analytical framework that guided the empirical work in this paper was divided into two inter-related institutional components: structures and processes, and the agents who actively engage with the EU's governance structures. The comparative analysis provides evidence of both convergence and continuing diversity. In managing Europe from home, states appear to choose from a menu of possible models, prime ministerial-led or foreign ministry-led systems. Two variables stand out in explaining variation across the three states, the level of institutionalisation and the relationship between formal and informal processes.     

Effect of testing and social distancing measures on COVID-19 deaths in India: Role of pre-existing socio-economic factors

We examine the effect of testing and social distancing measures on the severity of COVID19 across Indian states during the 68th day nationwide lockdown period. We also explore whether pre-existing socio-economic factors such as quality of health care and the ability to practice social distancing influences the effect of these policy measures across states. Using daily level data between April 1 and May 31 for 18 of the major states, we find that both testing and social distancing have a negative effect on COVID-19 fatalities in India. Further, testing is more helpful in reducing CFR for states with lower per capita health expenditure and weaker medical infrastructure. This highlights how ramping up testing can aid states that have a weak health care system through the detection of infection, contact tracing and isolation. In contrast, social distancing measures are more effective in states that are less populous and have lesser people dwelling in single-room houses. Our results confirm the role of pre-existing institutional factors in shaping the effect of policy actions on health outcomes.     

Let's Agree to Agree: Regional Interest Representation in the Negotiations for the 2007–13 and 2014–20 Structural Funds in Germany

The negotiating powers of regional authorities in the European Union (EU) have become more evident, especially with decentralization and regionalization happening across Europe. This empirical case study of regional interest representation offers a comparative analysis of the negotiations for the 2007–13 and 2014–20 EU Structural Funds. Based on qualitative interviews with German subnational officials, this paper explores how the German federal states (Länder) represented their interests at the federal and supranational level. It will be shown that the modes of interest representation changed which can largely be attributed to social learning. This article contributes to existing literature by illustrating the move towards co-operative interest representation with intra-state subnational mobilization.     

The political and economic causes of satisfaction with democracy in Spain – a twofold panel study

This study tests the links between political and economic performance and satisfaction with democracy (SWD) in Spain. Contrary to the dominant theoretical paradigm that explains the aggregate evolution of and the individual-level differences in SWD mainly by means of economic factors, the article presents evidence that evaluations of the political process are equally relevant to account for both changes in individuals’ SWD over time and the evolution of SWD at the national level. Unlike most existing literature, this study supports its argument by combining analyses of a micro-level panel dataset (CIUPANEL) and of a pooled aggregate-level panel dataset based on the Spanish samples in the Eurobarometer and the Latinobarómetro between 1986 and 2014.     

Achievements and challenges of energy poverty alleviation policies: Evidence from the select states in India

Indian energy sector has undergone a tremendous transformation with consistent government policy interventions since 2000. Against this backdrop, we examine the extent to which energy poverty has decreased due to the expansion of energy services and the significant determinants of energy poverty in select six states in India. Overall, results reveal that absolute multidimensional energy poverty has substantially decreased across all states examined in the study as well as across all income and social groups between 2015 and 2018. Specifically, acute multidimensional energy poverty has reduced by an average of 30% between 2015 and 2018 in six states. At the same time, dependency on biomass remains more or less the same between 2015 and 2018. Results also show that inequality in the access to energy across income and social groups exists, and education is negatively related to energy poverty. Energy poverty has declined by a similar percentage among most employment groups, except for people practicing cattle rearing. Finally, culture is a significant determinant of energy poverty as households with the elderly and more land owned have higher energy poverty, probably due to the easy access to biomass and preference of such households to use it.     

The impact of no Child Left Behind on student achievement

The No Child Left Behind (NCLB) Act compelled states to design school accountability systems based on annual student assessments. The effect of this federal legislation on the distribution of student achievement is a highly controversial but centrally important question. This study presents evidence on whether NCLB has influenced student achievement based on an analysis of state‐level panel data on student test scores from the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP). The impact of NCLB is identified using a comparative interrupted time series analysis that relies on comparisons of the test‐score changes across states that already had school accountability policies in place prior to NCLB and those that did not. Our results indicate that NCLB generated statistically significant increases in the average math performance of fourth graders (effect size 5 0.23 by 2007) as well as improvements at the lower and top percentiles. There is also evidence of improvements in eighth‐grade math achievement, particularly among traditionally low‐achieving groups and at the lower percentiles. However, we find no evidence that NCLB increased fourth‐grade reading achievement. © 2011 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Foreign direct investment and repression: An analysis across industry sectors

The impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on repression in developing nations is still disputed. Some argue that FDI improves economic development and exports human rights values. Others criticize the exploitation of cheap labor and resources, which may lead to tensions and government oppression. Previous studies have employed aggregate FDI data with conflicting results. Alternatively, I propose that the effects depend on what kind of FDI enters a country. I build a sectoral framework to discuss how skills and technology levels, as well as the motivation for FDI, can mediate the impact. I then examine the link in a panel data analysis (1983–2010) in 121 countries, integrating sectoral FDI in several resource, manufacturing, and service industries. The results show that investment in high-skilled and high-tech sectors has positive effects. The results are robust across several measures for repression, and when accounting for sector size, regional and time effects.     

State Unemployment Insurance Trust Solvency and Benefit Generosity

This paper employs panel estimators with data on the 50 American states for the years 1963 to 2006 to test the relationship between Unemployment Insurance (UI) trust fund solvency and UI benefit generosity. We find that both average and maximum weekly UI benefit amounts, as ratios to the average weekly wage, are higher in states and in years with more highly solvent trust funds. This result holds after controlling for state‐level unemployment rate, gross domestic product, population growth, legislative political ideology, partisan control of the executive and legislative branches, and gubernatorial election year across multiple specifications, including fixed‐effects and dynamic panel estimators. We propose a theory of moderate coupling as the causal mechanism, whereby UI program benefits and financing are directly related but are not as tightly linked as in other social insurance programs, such as Medicaid. The findings have important policy implications for the funding of states’ UI systems. As a consequence of moderate coupling, the countercyclicality of the UI program is dampened.     

Inflationary effects of oil price shocks in Indian economy

Stabilising inflation around certain preconceived level remains the predominant objective of monetary authorities all over the world as its variability has crucial ramifications on the real economy. However, the effective operation of monetary policy to this end largely hinges on the nature and dynamics of inflation both in the short‐run and long‐run. In this context, the present study focuses on theoretical investigation of how crude oil price fluctuations affect inflation in a real economy. Moreover, the study examines the nature of relationship between crude oil price fluctuations and inflation and its impact with reference to Indian economy. The study suggest that, in India, although the price of petroleum products are insulated against international crude oil price fluctuations by way of subsidies in order to curb inflation, in the long run, inflation manifest itself in the form of worsening fiscal deficit and undermine the sustainability of public debt. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Measuring the Impact of Lotteries on State per Pupil Expenditures for Education: Assessing the National Evidence

State‐operated lotteries have recently been asserted by public administrators and academicians as panaceas for eradicating revenue disparities existing across public school districts in the American states. The purpose of this research project is to empirically test the hypothesis that lottery revenues raise the state expenditures for public education. A state‐level national dataset, which includes fifty American states over the period 1977–1997, was used for the analysis. Pooled time‐series cross‐sectional and ARIMA modeling was employed to test the hypothesis. This study finds that lottery revenues had a positive influence on state per pupil expenditures for education. The evidence for the impact of lotteries on state per pupil expenditures for education was robust and statistically significant.     

Ecological inference under unfavorable conditions: Straight and split-ticket voting in diverse settings and small samples

Problems of ecological inference have long troubled political scientists. Thomsen's (1987) estimator for ecological inference has been shown to produce estimates close to the individual level estimates for transitions across elections, but it is unknown how well it performs under unfavorable conditions. We fill this void by testing the estimator as the across-unit variance increases and introduce a new procedure to examine the bias of the estimates as the number of aggregate units decreases. Looking at partisan voting patterns across races within the 2000 general election in Florida counties and taking advantage of ballot image data to study straight-ticket voting we demonstrate that the estimator performs well in both heterogeneous societies and when the number of aggregate units is limited.