Europe's Identity Problem and the New Islamist War

Fundamental transformations of identity within Europe have historically resulted in great wars, which in turn resulted in fundamental transformations of identity. This essay discusses, first, four great periods of war in Europe and the succession of identities they produced, and then the new war that Islamist terrorists, and Islamism more generally, have brought to Europe and the West. It considers the inherent weaknesses and failures of the now-dominant Western ideology and identity, liberalism, in dealing with this new war, and concludes with a consideration of the once-dominant Christian identity in Europe. That identity, much more than liberalism, would have strengthened Europe in its current war with Islamism.     

Transnational Terrorism in the Post–Cold War Era

The article uncovers evidence that the end of the Cold War has provideda dividend in terms of reduced transnational terrorism. Significant short-run and long-run effects are quantified with time-series analysis to be concentrated in reduced bombings and hostage-taking incidents. Presumably, this dividend is the result of less state-sponsorship of terrorism by the Commonwealth of Independent States and other states, as well as the result of measures taken by industrial states to thwart terrorist attacks. A dividend does not appear untilthe last three quarters of 1994, at which time moves were well under way to integrate Eastern Europe with the West. Moreover, prior to this period, significant efforts had been made among Western nations to augment cooperative efforts to curb terrorism and to bring terrorists to justice. Using data for 1970 through mid-1996, we also examine trends and cycles in terrorist modes ofattack. There is virtually no evidence of an upward trend in transnational terrorism, contrary to media characterizations. All types of terrorist incidents display cycles whose duration lengthens with logistical complexity. Any change in these cycles in the post–Cold War era is concentrated in the high-frequency or short-lived cycles.     

The War on Terrorism and the Decline of Terrorist Group Formation: A Research Note

Over the course of the twentieth century, terrorist organizations possessing different political and religious outlooks have been formed in different regions of the world. This note reports that the peak decades for the formation of terrorist groups were the 1970s and 1980s. Since that period, the pace of terrorist group formation has slowed substantially. Further, during the 1970s and 1980s the political goals of terrorist bands consisted of a heterogeneous mix of nationalist, left-wing revolutionary, right-wing radical and religious agendas. During the 1990s new terrorist groups have been largely reflective of religious concerns, Islamist ones in particular.     

反恐战争与地区形势

美国在阿富汗发动反恐战争后,南亚和中亚地区形势发生重大变化,地缘政治格局出现重组,大国关系重新调整,呈现矛盾与合作并存的局面。美国对阿富汗反恐战争的初步胜利使南亚和中亚地区安全和稳定的环境得到改善,但阿富汗稳定和重建任重道远,地区总体形势可能将     

Islamist organizations on the Internet

Cyberspace provides a new arena for political extremists and terrorists to operate in. Among those who have eagerly seized upon its possibilities are Islamists, whose networked systems of organization are enhanced by the use of information and communication technologies (ICTs). They use these for communication between themselves and to the outside world, and to a lesser extent for command and control. ICTs allow a degree of interConnectivity that previously was unavailable. They also allow them to communicate covertly. However, their use of the new technologies also allows researchers a growing opportunity to further monitor their activities and their strategic developments.     

美国穆斯林对恐怖主义与反恐战争的态度

5月22日，美国皮尤调查中心（Pew Research Center）发表一份题为《美国穆斯林》的调查报告。该报告对美国境内1050位穆斯林进行55000多次访谈后，结果显示：目前全美穆斯林人口主要来自阿拉伯地区的移民，至于土生土长的穆斯林，则以非裔居多；多数人对美国认同度较高，支持极端伊斯兰主义比例比欧洲国家低，但多数不认同美国所发动的反恐战争。     

Intelligence and Grand Strategy

Elegant strategies can be constructed without reference to intelligence but persuading policymakers to implement them without knowing what intelligence might have to say about their likely efficacy and unintended consequences would be exceedingly difficult. Intelligence-derived information and insights should not dictate the goals of grand strategy, but they should inform decisions about what to do, how to do it, and what to look for in order to assess how well or badly the strategy is working.     

Landpower,Time, and Terrorism: A Strategy of Lightness in the Counter-ISIS Campaign

The range of strategic ends and contingencies that could require seizing, securing, and controlling territory on land is not diminishing. But the means of employing landpower have repeatedly exhausted the domestic basis and political will to sustain it over time, as in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. A way of applying landpower that allows for the essential element of time, sustainable over protracted periods in the court of public opinion, would offer immeasurable strategic value. Drawing on the author's work and observations while deployed to the U.S./coalition headquarters in command of military operations against ISIS, this article suggests that the answer to the dilemma of landpower, however preliminary, lies at the nexus of strategy and cost.     

伊拉克战争是"情报失误"还是蓄意发动?--写在伊拉克战争一周年之际

美国为了控制海湾地区,进而实现控制欧亚中南部乃至整个欧亚大陆的目的,从90年代起就蓄谋发动伊拉克战争.所谓伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤性武器的指责,不过是美国情报部门在布什政府授意下刻意捏造的借口.     

基于中国－东盟博览会视角的企业竞争情报策略

近年来，随着中国-东盟博览会在会展业中的异军突起，它的展示、贸易及信息交流等功能都得到了极大的发挥和提升，而博览会作为企业竞争情报的主要信息源也逐步成为企业获得竞争情报，把握商业机遇的重要平台。众所周知，中国一东盟博览会（以下简称博览会）是一个综合性、国际性的会展，它集商品贸易、投资合作、服务贸易、高层论坛、文化交流于一体，     

Grand Strategy after the Vietnam War

The perceived history of the Vietnam War profoundly influenced American discussions on grand strategy during the postwar period. The two largest schools of thought, one favoring confrontation with the Soviet Union and the other favoring engagement, drew lessons from the war based upon differing historical interpretations and used those lessons as support beams in constructing grand strategy. Compelling world events during the Carter presidency caused only a few individuals to shift positions in the debate, but one of those individuals was Jimmy Carter himself. Subsequent discoveries by historians indicate that the confrontation school understood the war's history and the postwar world better than did the engagement school and consequently crafted a superior grand strategy. The post-Vietnam debate contains numerous parallels to present-day discussions of grand strategy and offers a variety of lessons salient to contemporary strategic formulation.     

美国"反恐金融战"对国际金融制度的影响

金融领域的反恐怖主义是美国国际反恐怖战略的重要一环。由于美国“反恐金融战”在国内外两条战线上同时展开 ,对各国金融行政当局和金融机构都带来了巨大的压力。各主要国家在反恐怖主义和反洗钱方面有共同利益 ,故多顺势而为 ,积极强化金融监管系统。国际金融领域正发生着近年来最重要的制度变革。     

冷战后美国大战略的理论思辨

冷战结束之后,美国思想界掀起了一场关于美国未来国家大战略的理论辩论.对于冷战后美国大战略的利益与目标、威胁与挑战、手段与途径等问题,不同学派根据各自对国际政治现实的理解提出了纷繁复杂的理论模式.关于大战略的辩论在很大程度上也就是关于国际关系理论的辩论,因此,本文从现实主义与自由主义、孤立主义与国际主义、单边主义与多边主义三个主要视角对各种大战略模式及其论证思路进行了比较分析和逻辑疏理.     

伊拉克战争与美国的大战略失误

美国发动对伊战争有着长远的战略考虑,但伊拉克战争本身在目标和手段上都无助于实现或推进美国在“9.11”事件后所确立的大战略目标。美国在伊拉克战争期间的大战略失误,突出地表现为大战略目标与单个军事行动目标之间的模糊和抵触,大战略目标与手段之间严重失衡。长远地看,如果美国偏重于单边主义和军事力量,其巩固“单极”世界的图谋会遇到更大的国际障碍。