Constructing Cooperation: A New Approach to Confidence Building between India and Pakistan

ABSTRACT

India and Pakistan have tempered their rivalry over the years by negotiating many bilateral confidence-building measures (CBMs), but the current patchwork of agreements cannot prevent an act of cross-border terrorism from triggering a major militarised crisis. To help mitigate this shortfall, this article advocates a new conceptual approach towards confidence building that identifies two categories of agreements – negative and positive. Negative CBMs oblige inaction; they can be defined as promises to eschew provocative behaviour, so as to prevent miscalculation and accidental war. Most prominent Indo-Pakistani CBMs fall under this category – examples include agreements on non-attack of nuclear facilities and non-violation of airspace. Positive CBMs, by contrast, oblige action; they entail tangible engagement and cooperation in the military, diplomatic, or economic domains. Examples might include counter-piracy cooperation and the expansion of people-to-people contacts. This article argues that positive CBMs invite reciprocity and are a plausible tool for promoting bilateral goodwill, reducing mistrust, and insulating Indo-Pakistani relations from shocks.     

Conflict between social structure and legal framework: political corruption in Pakistan

There is a growing body of literature on the conflict between social environment and legal system. This article seeks to unravel the contradiction between Pakistan's anti-corruption laws and its social world. The study of this uncharted territory becomes even more urgent when the consequences of corruption are taken into account in the broader context of Pakistan's internal cohesion, democratic development and sustainable growth. Despite the fact that Pakistan inherited a British legal framework based on the division between public and private spheres, the article argues that a greater part of Pakistani society does not recognise such division. The split between public and private realms which provides a conceptual framework for any definition of political corruption seems culturally deficient. In particular, the paper attempts to demonstrate that ethnic loyalties by taking precedence over the public interest give rise to the ‘moral view of corruption', which explains why many people do not view the use of public office for ethnic gain to be an act of corruption. In these particular circumstances, the paper finds an underlying conflict in the treatment of corruption between the social and legal systems. The disparity between the legal system and social world has given rise to grave concern on the part of civil society.     

India’s Surgical Strikes: Response to Strategic Imperatives

ABSTRACT

In September 2016, militants who were allegedly backed by Pakistan attacked an Indian Army camp in Uri. The government in New Delhi was facing important regional elections. It faced intense public pressure to muster a military response. Such a response, however, ran the risk of triggering a nuclear exchange. Ten days after the Uri attack, India reported that it had carried out ‘surgical strikes’ on terrorist training camps in Pakistan-controlled territory. The paper examines this specific episode in India–Pakistan deterrence dynamics, focusing on the nomenclature ‘surgical strikes’. The paper argues that the choice of the term itself is new and worthy of investigation. Using qualitative content analysis of the official announcement of the operation, it identifies specific rhetorical moves by the Indian government that framed the response as a surgical strike. The paper also considers other statements in the media by high-ranking political and military leaders regarding the strikes, and the reception of these statements by the Indian audience, by Pakistan, and by the international community. The concluding section sounds a note of caution about future iterations of so-called surgical strikes. While the term ‘surgical strike’ can be useful in some circumstances, it produces destabilising outcomes in others.     

试析新世纪越南与印度军事合作的举措和原因

越南与印度长期保持着友好关系,两国关系在2007年发展为战略伙伴关系后得到不断深化。而新世纪以来,两国出于各自战略利益以及遏制中国的考虑,在军事领域的合作呈现出了蓬勃发展的趋势,备受世人瞩目。     

Economic Cooperation between India and Kuwait: Performance and Prospects

Over two decades of liberalization and reforms have resulted in India becoming the second fastest growing economy in the world. Having the second largest population in the world, it is also a vast repository of skilled manpower. However, the significant growth in Indian economy has increased the demand for energy substantially. Consequently, India has to import 80 per cent of its petroleum crude requirement. In contrast to India, Kuwait is very small in size and population. But it is very rich in hydrocarbon resources. The economic cooperation between India and Kuwait is deep rooted. It consists of bilateral trade inclusive of energy imports, Indian expatriate workers in Kuwait and the inflow of remittances, Kuwaiti aid and prospective Kuwaiti investments. The article is a detailed study of all these aspects of economic cooperation between the two countries.     

Cross-Border Trade and “the Market” between Xinjiang (China) and Pakistan

ABSTRACT

A significant part of China-Pakistan cross-border trade falls within the category of shadow economy. Most Pakistani traders in Xinjiang cannot afford to ship containers through the Khunjerab Pass and rather carry the goods purchased in China with them on the daily buses to Sost, Pakistan, thus avoiding customs duties. This form of border economy, though falling outside of the regulatory regime, is far from being informal. Rather, it is based on a network of contacts on both sides of the border and made possible by the particular institutional and infrastructural setting of the area. Based on long-term fieldwork in both Xinjiang and Pakistan, this article shows the complexity of these transactions, their transnational nature and the performativity that characterises them. It also highlights the role of online technologies and social networks in the cultivation of those relations, and the ability of traders to navigate often-changing norms and the flows that characterise the market. Eventually, the article suggests a new definition for “the market” as it emerges from the experience of traders in Xinjiang. For them the market is neither simply based on trust, social relations and the continuous flow of information; nor does it correspond to the global, culture-free market economy     

Elections and democratic transition in Pakistan: one step forward and two steps backwards

Expectations in Pakistan rose, when for the first time, in its history a political government in 2013 completed its full term of office and was replaced not by the military but by another political government after being defeated at the ballot box. It raises questions about what kind of democratic space is developing and what type of hybrid regime is emergent. The paper reflects upon the concept of hybrid regime and draws out key variables: turnover, tutelage and neo-patrimonialism and then considers how to categorise development in Pakistan. It concludes that Pakistan is in a ‘gray zone’ and that during the period there was evidence of it moving towards becoming an illiberal hybrid regime but the military went on the offensive and the democratic space contracted returning to being an illiberal tutelary hybrid regime. Unless tutelage and neo-patrimonialism are not challenged Pakistan will not progress in the democratic transition and remain a hybrid regime.     

冷战后印度与东盟关系:调整、发展与趋势

20世纪90年代,适应大国崛起战略的需要,印度的"东向政策"出台。印度的"东向政策"推动了冷战后印度与东盟关系的调整与发展。冷战后的印度与东盟关系的发展呈现"双轮驱动"的态势,一方面印度发展与东盟国家的双边关系,另一方面,依托东盟相关机制,印度发展同东盟的多边关系。未来10-15年,印度与东盟关系的发展将是经贸与安全"齐头并进"的趋势。     

The Right Turn in India: Authoritarianism,Populism and Neoliberalisation

ABSTRACT

This article argues that the growth of authoritarian forms of politics in India should be seen in the context of a long-term crisis of the state as successive governments have been unable to establish legitimacy for the policies of neoliberalisation that have been pursued since the 1990s. These policies contributed to the fracturing of dominant modes of political incorporation. The previous Congress Party-led government’s mode of crisis management – which it dubbed, inclusive growth – failed to create new forms of political incorporation by addressing long-term structural problems in India’s political economy, such as jobless growth, and gave rise to new problems, such as large-scale corruption scandals. Subsequently, it increasingly developed what Nicos Poulantzas called, “authoritarian statist” tendencies to marginalise dissent within a framework of constitutional democracy. The current Bharatiya Janata Party-led government’s mode of crisis management builds on these authoritarian statist tendencies but has sought to build legitimacy for these tendencies and neoliberalisation through an appeal to authoritarian populism. This seeks to harness popular discontent against elite corruption with majoritarianism to create an antagonism between the “Hindu people” and a “corrupt elite” that panders to minorities.     

“Land Grabbing” in an Autocracy and a Multi-Party Democracy: China and India Compared

ABSTRACT

Both China and India have witnessed extensive land expropriation by the state from farmers for use in industrialisation and urbanisation projects. Land conflicts have ensued from these developments. This article poses two questions: (i) Why do we see a similar escalation of land dispossession in both countries, despite their distinctively dissimilar political systems, one being a one-party authoritarian regime, the other being a multi-party democracy?; and (ii) How does the different regime type affect the politics of dispossession? Despite their diverse political institutions, government officials have been given similar incentives to chase growth by developing land, but the institutions create diverging environments for aggrieved citizens to mobilise for collective action. While it is unsurprising that the interests of the poor and weak are not protected in an autocracy, democracy provides no automatic safety valve in defending marginalised citizens either.     

Comparing Brokers in India: Informal Networks and Access to Public Services in Bihar and Gujarat

ABSTRACT

Faced with unresponsive and intimidating state institutions, citizens often need to rely on brokers to obtain state benefits. This article compares the ways in which brokers help people gain access to public services in two Indian states. Using ethnographic fieldwork in both states, we compare Bihar and Gujarat to argue that the evolution of the informal networks through which citizens gain access to public services constitutes an important dimension of democratisation processes. In both Gujarat and Bihar such brokerage networks have fragmented considerably over the last 40 years, while also becoming less marked by social hierarchies. This change has taken place despite a differing role and strength of political parties in the two states. The fragmentation and levelling of brokerage networks have enabled citizens to put more pressure on state institutions and power holders. This process of “informal democratisation” suggests that the comparative study of brokerage networks constitutes a promising and largely unexplored avenue to interpret the challenges facing governance and local democracy in India.     

中印构建命运共同体的内涵、困境与可能性

中国和印度同为发展中国家,近年来迅速崛起受到世界关注,但由于战略和认知差异、边界问题、巴基斯坦问题以及域外大国的干扰等因素的影响,两国关系不断下滑。印度借助自身实力的增长和美国印太战略实施,不断挑起与邻国的矛盾,特别是加大力度与中国竞争,与其他国家一起制衡中国。在此背景下,中印命运共同体建设将面临巨大的困境和挑战。同时,中印在命运共同体构建过程中也存在认知偏差和单向构建的问题。不解决这些问题,中印要构建命运共同体将十分困难。近期,边界问题仍然是双方误解和矛盾加深的爆发点,也是中印命运共同体构建的难点,这使得中印的博弈还会继续。但由于中印合作对双方、地区乃至世界影响巨大,和平共处、共同发展符合双方的共同利益。从博弈论中的懦夫博弈和重复博弈视角来看,博弈的策略会影响彼此的行为和偏好,而目前双方有避免热战的共同点,也有加强非传统安全领域的合作空间,未来双方构建命运共同体仍然存在可能性。中印双方应把握机遇,相互调整行为与偏好,不断增加构建命运共同体的正能量,以促进互利共赢、共同发展。     

The capacity to aspire: young persons and gender–age relations in southern Tajikistan and North India

ABSTRACT

Rather than studying young men's career- and/or economic-based aspirations, this article explores the obstacles that hinder youths of both sexes in gerontocratic southern Tajikistan and North India from developing the capacity to make their own life choices. Focusing mainly on the selection of marital partner and largely on women, I explore the narratives of those who have never even dreamed of a good life, of others who have dreamed but been unable to actualize their dreams, of a few who have started to plan the way forward, and of a tiny number who actually managed to achieve their aspirations, teasing out the influences that facilitate this. I suggest that even educated youths with some control over their public lives are constricted by their family relations and that it requires quite specific support to defy one’s family, which can create significant vulnerabilities in settings with no other safety net.     

东向政策与大国平衡:印度东盟认知的改变

印度东盟关系的发展得益于印度的东向政策和东盟的大国平衡战略,而双方认知的改变是其根源。     

The dog that did not bark: the army and the emergency in India

In June 1975, Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi imposed Emergency rule, capping off a decade long process of the ‘deinstitutionalisation’ of the founding Congress party, increased social mobilisation, and political instability – factors generally considered conducive to military intervention in politics. Organisational factors encouraging military praetorianism, such as military involvement in internal security missions and the growth of ‘rival’ paramilitary institutions, accompanied this process of political decay. But the Indian military did not exploit this window of opportunity. This article offers an institutionalist explanation of the military’s political restraint based on two factors. First, institutionalised mechanisms of civilian control, forged during the critical juncture following independence, insulated the military from politics and the politicians from the military despite the weakening of the political system under which these were created. Second, military internalisation of the norm civilian supremacy, continually reinforced via professional socialisation processes, acted as an internal barrier to military role expansion.     

美日加强防务合作的动力和进展

2017年以后,美日两国都开始表达对现有国际秩序的担忧,两国对国际秩序问题的认知基本一致,都认为提高两国防务合作,加强同盟威慑力,是维护美国主导的国际秩序的必要举措。在这种战略共识的支配下,2017年以来,美国和日本的防务合作有了更多的发展,主要表现在提升协作能力、提高进攻能力、强化联合反导能力等三个方面。     

从规避到合作:老挝和东盟关系的演进

在老挝实施对外开放政策的实践和加入东盟的进程中,老挝与东盟的关系经历了从规避到合作的发展历程.十年来,老挝认真履行成员国的职责和义务,主动融入一体化进程,积极参与地区事务,而东盟也力促老挝参与区域合作,加强与其他成员国间的合作,缩小发展差距.在与东盟的磨合中,老挝对参与区域合作的认识更为全面,态度也更为理性.     

对立与合作:马来西亚华人政党与伊斯兰党关系的演变

20世纪80年代以来,马来西亚政治的主导因素是种族政治和伊斯兰政治化,伊斯兰党崛起成为主要反对党之一.华人政党马华公会和民政党对伊斯兰党坚决反对;行动党对伊斯兰党的态度是在反对和合作中反复,为了建立公正和民主的马来西亚,行动党与伊斯兰党合作,但因为伊斯兰教国问题,行动党与其决裂.华人政党与伊斯兰党关系的变化,影响到马来西亚的种族关系、种族政治和伊斯兰政治化.