美国在阿富汗战争中的收获与教训

虽然阿富汗战争使美国在政治、经济等方面都获益,但美依靠武力、以暴制暴的战争手段无法从根本上真正铲除恐怖主义,同时又给自己带来一系列难以消除的负面影响.     

美国对朝政策:机遇与制约

布什政府上台以来,始终未能阻止朝鲜拥核步伐。朝核试后,美对朝政策有了新的调整,六方会谈得以复会。但美朝双方受各自国家利益和政策目标的限制,在朝鲜半岛无核化问题上的尖锐分歧难以解决,朝核危机仍存在再度升级的可能。     

The U. S. Policy toward DPRK: Opportunities and Constraints

布什政府上台以来,始终未能阻止朝鲜拥核步伐.朝核试后,美对朝政策有了新的调整,六方会谈得以复会.但美朝双方受各自国家利益和政策目标的限制,在朝鲜半岛无核化问题上的尖锐分歧难以解决,朝核危机仍存在再度升级的可能.     

中美太空合作的现状与前景

中美建交以来,双方在诸多领域的合作取得了很大的进展,但在太空领域直接合作的成果却有限.美国不愿与中国进行太空合作出于多种考虑:担心敏感技术转移会促进中国导弹技术和反卫星武器的发展;自私自利的国际太空合作标准;与中国的合作有损其"人权卫士"声誉.但是,中国在太空技术方面取得了巨大成就,并积极开展太空外交,谋求太空多极化,促使美国考虑与中国建立太空合作关系的可能性.一些美国人提出了中美太空合作的三种方式:在太空商业领域合作,换取中国对事关美国安全利益的支持;在诸如太空碎片缓解等较低层次的太空活动领域合作;共同参加国际多边太空合作.     

The U.S. press and political change in the Third World: The coverage of military coups

One of the chief features of the Third World is how often regimes change. These regime changes have many implications both for internal political stability in the Third World and in the relationships between the Third World and the superpowers. In the United States, it is generally the media that inform the American people about these changes and their implications for the United States. This paper analyzes the coverage of the two most recent military coups in Nigeria by the U.S. press.

Our analysis indicates that if a government that is supportive of American interests is overthrown, and the personalities and policies of the new leaders are not readily apparent to the press, the change is greeted with hostilities by the U.S. press. However, as soon as it becomes apparent that the new regime will not threaten the economic and political interests of the United States, the press rallies behind the new regime and begins to proclaim it as a savior. The press lamented the overthrow of Shagari's government and proclaimed the coup a setback for democracy in Africa. However, within a few weeks of this judgement, the coup that overthrew President Shagari was hailed as necessary for the political stability and economic prosperity of Nigeria. When the military government that seized power from Shagari was itself thrown out of office in a military coup, the new regime was welcomed by the press. We also found the U.S. press utilizes a biased and distorted framework in its coverage of political events in the Third World. The framework used in the Nigerian case asserts that all economic and political crises emanate from tribalism, corruption, and the criminal tendencies of Nigerians. We argue in this paper that this perspective, which informs the coverage of political events in Nigeria by the U.S. press, does not allow it to present valid and truthful explanations of political changes in Nigeria. We also argue that this shallow coverage is done deliberately so as to obscure the reality of political struggles in Nigeria. We assert that it is in the interests of both the Nigerian ruling class and international capitalism to attribute economic and political crises in Nigeria to tribalism, corruption, and nepotism.     

Innovation or Inertia: The U.S. Military and the Learning of Counterinsurgency

Following its encounter with insurgent violence in Iraq, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has sought to improve the U.S. military's ability to conduct counterinsurgency. This effort suggests a potential turning-point in the history of the U.S. military, which has traditionally devoted its attention and resources to “high-intensity” or “conventional” combat. Given this institutional culture, what are now the prospects of the U.S. military ‘learning counterinsurgency’? In many ways, the ongoing reorientation is promising and targeted, informed directly by the U.S. campaign in Iraq. At the same time, Pentagon priorities still reveal a remarkable resistance to change, and this in spite of the radically altered strategic environment of the War on Terror. Given this intransigence - and the eventual fall-out from the troubled Iraq campaign - the ongoing learning of counterinsurgency might very well fail to produce the type of deep-rooted change needed to truly transform the U.S. military.     

"The Quest": The Strange Life of W. J. Garnett

This article investigates the career of a British diplomat, William Garnett, whose unusual life has until know been neglected by historians. Garnett's papers, held at Lancashire Record Office, are a particularly rich source for historians of British diplomacy, the British Foreign Office, and overseas travel in the first two decades of the twentieth century. Garnett was often outspoken and indiscreet in his private correspondence and his archive, on which this article draws, provides valuable insights into British representation and British policy in the countries to which he was posted in the period 1902-1919.     

日美防卫技术合作演变的逻辑

防卫技术合作是日美同盟关系深化的重要体现，也是安全合作以及同盟管控的组成部分。日美防卫技术合作的进展受防卫技术合作的制度化水平和日本在同盟关系中自主化水平双重因素的影响。20世纪80年代以前，受日本武器出口规范和技术能力的限制，日美之间的防卫技术合作以美国单方面援助日本为主。其后，日本在技术上取得较大突破，开始在对美技术合作与自主技术研发之间寻求平衡，但技术合作制度化水平较低，影响了两国的合作。进入21世纪第二个10年之后，日本在解禁“武器出口三原则”的同时，进一步加强技术研发能力、深化与美国的防卫技术合作，并寻求技术合作的多元化。通过日美战斗机研发合作的案例可以发现，看似日本对美国渐趋自主，但仍然难以摆脱对美防卫技术依存的困境。日美之间防卫技术合作的深度以及日本防卫合作对象多元化的广度将是影响日本未来防卫产业发展的重要因素。     

反恐合作:中美关系的现状、特点及其发展趋势

“9.11”事件后,动荡起伏的中美关系出现新的转机。美国国家战略首要目标出现变更,反恐成为中美合作关系的新内容。以反恐合作为基础,中美关系进入“建设性合作关系”时期。目前,反恐合作的需要促成了中美双方以合作为重的格局的形成,但台湾问题仍是中美关系中的不稳定因素。     

U.S.-India Relations: The Way Forward

Both Washington and New Delhi share blame for the loss of momentum in bilateral relations. Unlike its predecessor, the Obama administration has not displayed much interest in high-profile cooperation, while the paralysis of the current Indian government has constrained its own capacity for engagement. Nonetheless, more progress has been made in the relationship in recent years than is generally appreciated. With the presidential election cycle beginning in the United States and India conducting an important round of state-level elections in early 2012, the best use of diplomatic resources in the short term is to focus on consolidating these promising trends. Yet once leaders on both sides are able to re-engage more fully, perhaps as soon as 2013, they should give priority attention to further deepening the partnership through a set of galvanizing initiatives that bolster the non-governmental links that are key in securing the growth of broad-based, resilient relations over the long term.     

Neville Bolt. The Violent Image: Insurgent Propaganda and the New Revolutionaries.

This article examines key setting events and personal factors that are associated with support for either non-violent activism or violent activism among Somali refugee young adults in the United States. Specifically, this article examines the associations of trauma, stress, symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), posttraumatic growth (PTG), strength of social bonds, and attitudes towards legal and non-violent vs. illegal and violent activism. Structured interviews were conducted with a sample of Somali refugee males ages 18–25 living in the northeastern United States (N = 79). Data were analyzed using multiple linear regressions and path analysis. Greater exposure to personal trauma was associated with greater openness to illegal and violent activism. PTSD symptoms mediated this association. Strong social bonds to both community and society moderated this association, with trauma being more strongly associated with openness to illegal and violent activism among those who reported weaker social bonds. Greater exposure to trauma, PTG, and stronger social bonds were all associated with greater openness to legal non-violent activism.     

A Review of: “Alfred G. Gerteiny. The Terrorist Conjunction: The United States,the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict,and Al-Qa'ida”

Since the advent of the Good Friday peace agreement, violence associated with dissident Irish Republican groups continues to present major security challenges. While there has not been a tragedy on the scale of the 1998 Omagh bombing, the level of violent dissident Republican (VDR) activity has risen steadily in frequency since then, and in 2010 reached unprecedented levels. This article presents findings from the VDR Project at the International Center for the Study of Terrorism at Pennsylvania State University. The research is based on the extensive identification, collection, and analysis of open source material examining the nature and extent of VDR activity from 1997 to 2010. The project analyses data on VDR activity across this period as well as the individuals taking part in these violent events. The data suggests that while originally recruitment was predominantly southern based it is now more focused on Northern Ireland. Analysis of the data also indicates that the VDR leadership continues to recruit individuals with skill-sets to serve the movement's aims.