美国在中亚实施的独立媒体项目

独立媒体项目是美国对中亚国家实施民主改造的重要手段和工具。美国的主要做法是:打造适宜媒体生存和发展的法律环境,提升独立媒体的职业技能和专业技术能力,向独立媒体提供物质支持,利用媒体可发展指数等"政治标准"打压中亚国家。独立媒体项目是美国左右和影响对象国政局发展的有力工具,对中亚产生了复杂、深远的影响。     

The Failure of Presidentialism in Central Asia

Institutional design can impact the dynamics of power relations in Central Asian states. Majoritarianism and the rigidity of the fixed terms of presidential systems are amplified by the personalist regimes of Central Asia, often leading to instability. A parliamentary system may reduce the political repression of these regimes by decreasing the stakes in each particular election. It may also increase stability due to the higher flexibility of the system. The effectiveness of the parliamentary system, however, depends largely on the existence of strong cohesive parties.     

美国和中亚的地区主义

谋求建立地区永久合作机构的运动将受到几个层面因素的影响:第一,地区主义受到国家能力的限制.一般来说,弱国与弱国不会成为很好的伙伴.在地区层面上,人们普遍认为霸权能够产生坚固的合作,在其中占主导地位的国家寻求建立使其主导地位制度化的地区机构而其他地区国家则寻求避免不顺从的代价;而另外一些国家则可能选择抵抗,它们的反霸权行为将阻碍正式或非正式地区机构的发展.地区国家之间的经济互补也有助于促进合作,而缺少这种互补则可能减少追求合作并使之制度化的动力.另外,跨边界资源(如水资源)的共享也会导致合作或者竞争.跨国挑战的出现(如恐怖主义、毒品交易、移民、环境恶化等),也会使国家在无力单独解决这些问题的时候选择加强合作关系;另一方面,这样的挑战也将激起其他一些国家的敌对反应.在跨国层面上,共同的文化和价值也将促进合作.没有共同的文化或更有甚者--重要文化差异的存在也是阻碍合作的重要因素.     

Nationhood and the minority question in Central Asia. The Russians in Kazakhstan

This article aims to present the situation of the Russian minority in Kazakhstan and to stress the political, social and identity evolutions in this country since independence in 1991. It develops three main points: the non-homogeneous nature of Russians in Kazakhstan; the development of non-ethnic allegiances that could explain the failure of the local Russian political parties; and the difficulties the leaders have in choosing between the defence of the political rights and the cultural rights of the country's first minority. In order to examine these issues, this article focuses on a series of issues: the place of the national question in the Kazakh public debate; the process of linguistic and ethnic Kazakhisation; the political activities of the Russian minority; the Cossack issue and the stakes of autonomist claims; and, finally, the issue of emigration and the narrative of the ‘return’ to Russia.     

The International Politics of Water Security in Central Asia

The article examines the international politics of water security in Central Asia with a particular focus on the level of regionalism. Are the five Central Asian states evolving into a region capable of solving water management problems on a regional basis? To examine the extent to which water has shaped the structure of Central Asian relations, I use water-related events. The empirical findings suggest that international relations of the Central Asian states are characterised by at least two sets of triads rather than a singular region. The presence of regional fragmentation is likely to exacerbate existing disputes over water and possibly destabilise the region.     

Keeping Central Asia stable

Contrary to optimistic assessments on the stabilising impact of the US troop deployment in Central Asia, the long‐term prospects for regional stability are far from certain. The American entry into Central Asia has complicated the geostrategic dynamics of the region and engaged the three great powers and regional players in intense rivalry for influence and leverage. If there was ever a ‘Great Game’ at play in the post‐Soviet era, it is now. The convergence of the great powers on Central Asia was justified in terms of anti‐terrorism. The toppling of the Taliban in Afghanistan may have secured its northern neighbours from an imminent threat, but the direct involvement of US forces in Central Asia is not likely to contribute to regional stability in the long run.     

中亚三女杰

哈萨克斯坦总统纳扎尔巴耶夫的大女儿达里加·纳扎尔巴耶娃、乌兹别克斯坦总统卡里莫夫的大女儿古丽娜拉·卡里莫娃、吉尔吉斯斯坦总统阿卡耶夫的妻子迈拉姆·阿卡耶娃等都是当前活跃于各国权力中心的风云女性.她们凭借自身特殊的身份、地位和性别优势在国家政治舞台上施展自己的才华和抱负.从2005-2007年,随着中亚各国陆续进入总统换届的多事之秋,上述三位女性有可能脱颖而出,成为各自国家总统的接班人.     

Mobile entrepreneurs in post-Soviet Central Asia

In this paper I present an analysis of a mobile entrepreneur and his transnational economic activities in post-Soviet space. I argue that the space of informal economic activities of mobile entrepreneurs are structured by trust-networks in the sense Tilly (2005) uses it. In this context the concept of tirikchilik (an Uzbek term for ‘muddling through’ or survival) which defines the space of informal economic activities is important to decipher. Tirikchilik unifies various economic activities which vary from trade, service delivery, middleman services, administration and any kind of activity that generates some cash.     

The environment,security and regional cooperation in Central Asia

Environmental challenges, resulting from either a scarcity of natural resources or environmental degradation, may contribute to security risks in Central Asia. An encouraging sign is the recent attention of the governments of Central Asia, civil society groups and international organizations to these environmental security issues. Their efforts indicate that by working together to prevent conflicts caused by environmental problems, cooperation among the countries of Central Asia may expand. Both short and long-term obstacles must be overcome if these groups are to ensure that environmental stresses do not lead to security concerns.     

The Convergence of Terrorism and Transnational Crime in Central Asia

This article examines the convergence among ethnic groups, narco-traffickers, insurgents, and terror organizations in Central Asia. It analyzes the lucrative business of drug trafficking and the diffusion of globalization, which have undoubtedly brought these once disparate groups together. It will explore how the increasing movement of illicit goods and people, proliferation of transportation technology, growing infrastructure, cooperative ethnicities, as well as a shared need for funding, have provided these groups with an opportunity to consolidate their efforts in ways that were not possible in the past.