20世纪90年代以来日本财政政策失效成因

二战后,日本通过实施凯恩斯的积极财政政策,实现了经济的高速增长。然而,伴随着20世纪90年代经济的长期萧条,传统的财政政策失效。本文通过巴罗模型检验了日本各项财政支出对经济增长的影响。实证分析结果表明：公共投资效果不佳成为日本财政政策失效的主要原因,而优化公共投资结构、提高公共投资乘数、调整财政支出结构,防范财政风险可以提高日本财政政策效应。     

From Divergence to Convergence: Shifts in the Science and Technology Policy of Japan and Switzerland

This contribution analyses recent developments in science and technology policy in two countries ‐ Japan and Switzerland ‐ that are often assumed to be of very different traditions and structures: politically, economically and culturally. The main argument is to demonstrate that despite of these differences we find an astonishing convergence of science and technology policies since the 90s, though their basic organisational features remain, of course, very different. This is due to major changes in the perception of how innovation comes about, to the rise of generic technologies and a new philosophy in state action. The article elucidates how the two countries have changed their structure of guidance and implementation in research.     

Policy Change and the Politics of Expertise: Economic Ideas and Immigration Control Reforms in Switzerland

This article analyses the varying influence across time of the “epistemic community“ of free‐market economists on immigration policy making in Switzerland. To this end, a framework for the analysis of the impact of economic expertise is provided, and then used in an historical analysis comparing the 1960s with the 1990s. Whereas this influence can be considered to have been weak in the 1960s, it gained significantly in importance in the 1990s, when a period of economic unrest seriously challenged previous immigration policies. It is argued that economic experts played an important role in framing the reforms undertaken during this latter period, notably by providing a “credible causal story“ about the links between the existing immigration policy and the social problems which arose in the country in the 1990s. As compared to the 1960s, economic expertise in the 1990s enjoyed more credibility, more political support and took full advantage of a more uncertain social and economic context.     

A Decade of Lost Growth: Economic Policy in Spain through the Great Recession

In 2008 the Spanish economy sank into recession, returning to growth in 2014. This paper explores the policies that were pursued by two successive governments to escape the recession. It comments on one of the most contentious strategies, that of austerity, and underlines the constraints on policy imposed by membership of the European Monetary Union (EMU) and a decentralised state. The Great Recession and accompanying austerity policy were associated with huge social and economic costs. Policy targets on the debt and deficit were not met. This experience, together with the broader sluggish growth in Europe and the political consequences associated with austerity, pointed to the need for a new policy mix.     

Historical Institutionalism and Economic Policymaking – Determinants of the Pattern of Economic Policy in Brazil, 1930–1960

From 1930 to 1960, Brazil adopted a pattern of economic policy marked by strong state intervention, high levels of protectionism, disregard of exports and a permissive treatment of inflation. These policies distorted the model of industrialisation and had a negative impact on the prospects for economic development. This article employs a historical institutionalist approach to investigate how the international context, the ideology of the policymakers, the role of the technocrats and the pressures of various social groups, especially the industrialists, influenced decisions on economic policy, contributing to the consolidation of the pattern described above.     

Explaining Policy Outcomes in Federal Contexts: The Politics of Reproductive Rights in Argentina and Mexico

This article explains the political and institutional factors that affect reproductive rights policies in Argentina and Mexico. Consistent with the comparative literature on gender, politics and institutions, the article reveals that federal arrangements define the arenas in which advocates can challenge governments. The comparative analysis suggests that the content and variations of policy outcomes are not only determined by the legal distribution of such rights. Women's positions towards abortion and contraception was greatly shaped by partisanship and ideology, and this was critical to legislative outcomes, while the number of women legislators was only important to introduce the issues. Important for further research are the effects of institutional and party instability on women's organising in legislatures, and the relevance of links between women's groups outside legislature and political parties for the success of gender equality policies.     

日本经济政策不确定性与企业研发投资--基于日本上市企业微观数据的实证检验

在梳理日本经济政策不确定性波动情况的基础上,利用2010年-2018年日本上市企业微观数据,通过构建实证模型探讨了日本经济政策不确定性对企业研发的影响,主要结论有:(1)日本经济政策不确定性的提高对企业研发活动产生负面影响;(2)日本经济政策不确定性对企业研发的影响具有行业差异;(3)不同经济政策的不确定性对日本企业研发活动的影响方向不同。贸易政策、金融政策不确定性指数的增加负面冲击企业研发活动,而财政政策、汇率政策不确定性的提高却激励企业研发投资。相较于日本,中国企业研发管理经验较少,风险承担能力较弱,政府更应重视在运用政策手段平滑景气波动的同时,避免政策施行的大起大落,警惕经济政策不确定性的过快、过度提高,尽可能营造、引导产生良好的市场预期,并采取有效措施切实支持企业创新活动。     

Good Inflation, Bad Inflation: The Housing Boom, Economic Growth and the Disaggregation of Inflationary Preferences in the UK and Ireland

This article presents a comparative analysis of the determinants, sustenance and broader macroeconomic consequences of the ultimately unsustainable housing boom in Ireland and the UK in recent years. It examines, in particular, the role played by ostensibly depoliticised monetary policy in both contexts in the development of a house price bubble that has served to fuel consumer-led growth. It assesses the viability, sustainability and reproducibility of the private debt-financed consumer boom that house price inflation has generated. In the process it draws attention to the increasingly differentiated character of both government inflationary preferences and counter-inflationary performance—with the shift to official measures of inflation that exclude mortgage interest repayments and, in the UK at least, to the covert re-politicisation of monetary policy. It concludes by suggesting that governments may well not have time-inconsistent inflationary preferences so much as sectorally specific inflationary preferences. This might be summarised in terms of the aphorism: 'retail price inflation bad, house price inflation good'.     

Whither the Liberal Democratic Model? Immigration Politics in Switzerland and Japan

A comparison of Japan's and Switzerland's immigration policies disclaims both globalist and public choice explanations that would predict a similar increase in immigrant numbers and an expansion of immigrant rights in liberal democracies. Although both countries have traditionally espoused a rather exclusionary approach towards immigration, Japan is unique in having hitherto succeeded in preempting large numbers of immigrants from entering the country and in having avoided the legal and societal integration of those migrants already present in its territory. In seeking to explain the different trajectories followed by immigration politics in Japan and Switzerland, despite their similar internal and external economic constellations, this article highlights the role of domestic institutions and norms in filtering economic pressure for immigration. Whereas these internal determinants explain to a large degree why Switzerland has become a country of immigration while Japan has not, the central factor explaining the recent expansion of foreign residents’ rights in Switzerland lies not so much in internal determinants but in the country‘s progressing approximation to the European Union and its single market. Notwithstanding these differences, the article concludes that Japan‘s greater resistance to change might now have reached a critical juncture, where demographic pressure and economic demand will make an opening up to increased labor migration unavoidable.     

Judicial Reform as Insurance Policy: Mexico in the 1990s

After seven decades of Mexican judicial subordination, President Ernesto Zedillo in 1994 introduced judicial reforms that increased the independence and judicial review powers of the judicial branch. The willful creation of a judiciary capable of checking the power of the president and the ruling PRI appears to counter political logic; but it makes sense as a political "insurance policy" to protect the ruling party from its rivals. PRI politicians, newly unable to control political outcomes at state and local levels and unsure if they would continue to dominate the national government in the future, opted to empower the Mexican Supreme Court as a hedge against the loss of office. This article argues that the likelihood of the reforms' producing an empowered judiciary increases as the ruling party's probability of reelection declines.     

Changing South Korean Water Policy after Political and Economic Liberalisation

This study explores the way in which South Korean water policy has been dynamically (re-)constructed by continuing political contestations among diverse social forces acting in and through the state in the face of political and economic liberalisation. The path-dependency of the state-driven water resource policy under the former authoritarian regime did not disappear even after the democratisation. It was difficult to transform the old authoritarian and hierarchical water governance to the newly democratic and environmentally friendly one because the Ministry of Construction, as a main actor in driving water policy under the authoritarian regimes, did not give up its interest in a dam-based policy orientation, although it did partially accept institutional tools for democratic policy making, such as public hearings and the participation of civil society in the process of establishing the water policy plan. It also showed democratic and environment-friendly gestures using the rhetoric of environmentalism and localisation. Overall, this article emphasises the importance of the path-dependency of the past authoritarian regimes under democratised society to better understand the current democratic regime’s policy orientation.     

From ‘Green Laggard’ to Regional Leader: Explaining the Recent Development of Environmental Policy in Chile

Environmental policy in Chile has developed rapidly in recent years, and the country has become a regional leader in renewable energy, climate change policy, recycling, and nature conservation. This contrasts with the previous neglect of environmental issues in the country and its depiction as a ‘green laggard’ (Orihuela, 2014: 251) within Latin America. In this article the recent development of environmental policy in Chile is reviewed and five factors affecting this development are analysed: international influences, institutional legacies, a window of opportunity opened by environmental movements, policy entrepreneurship, and business power.     

20世纪90年代以来越南天然橡胶产业政策探析

越南的天然橡胶业近年来发展十分迅速。现今,越南已成为世界第五大橡胶生产国、第四大橡胶出口国。越南的天然橡胶业能有如此不俗的表现,离不开越南政府制定、实施的相关产业政策。总结越南政府天然橡胶产业政策的经验,对于身为世界第四大橡胶生产国与最大橡胶消费国的中国来说具有十分重要的研究和现实意义。     

The Innovation Paradox in Southern Europe. Unexpected Performance During the Economic Crisis

The international crisis has exerted a strong impact on the National Innovation Systems (NIS) of three Southern European economies: Italy, Portugal and Spain. These countries represent interesting cases for analysing responses to the crisis because they show a sort of innovation paradox: despite the weakness of their institutional systems and the defensive policies developed by governments, some of their companies have nevertheless been able to innovate even during the hardest years of the recession. In order to shed light on this paradox, three matters are taken into account: the distinctive features of the South European National Innovation Systems; the behaviour of governments and companies; the ‘generative dynamics’ and the ‘creative processes’ that have taken place during the crisis.     

The Political Constraints on Economic Policy in Post-1982 Mexico: The Case of Pemex

Abstract Fourteen years of market-oriented reform in Mexico have led to many economic changes. However during 1982–1994 there was relatively little change in the hydrocarbon sector. This article seeks to explain the slowness of reform essentially in political terms. While political constraints on reforming the hydrocarbons sector were genuine, it is also clear that the De la Madrid and Salinas governments chose to avoid controversial decisions in this sector as far as possible. Risk aversion seems, at least in this context, to have been a characteristic of Mexican authoritarianism during 1982–1994. Because of the inherent importance of the oil and gas sector to the Mexican economy, the slow growth of production since 1982 (largely resulting from extreme policy caution) provides a part of the explanation for the slow growth of the Mexican economy as a whole.     

From Corporatism to Partisan Politics: Social Policy Making under Strain in Switzerland

The literature on neo‐corporatist agreements in social and labor market policy in the 1990s points to a decline of concertation in European countries with a long‐standing tradition of corporatist negotiation. This article identifies a similar trend in Switzerland and argues that three destabilizing factors account for it: 1) retrenchment pressure and ideological polarization prevent compromises; 2) the emergence of new social demands and interests challenges the homogeneity and legitimacy of peak organizations and thus their bargaining power; 3) increasing media coverage tends to open up the traditionally confidential and selective sphere of corporatist negotiation and weakens the social partners’ ability to reach agreements. The impact of these factors on neo‐corporatist bargaining is tested in Switzerland, a case where corporatist negotiations used to be particularly decisive in social policy making. Empirical evidence comes from a cross‐time comparison of two major social policies: Unemployment insurance and pension reforms in the 1970s and in the 1990s. In the last decade, the main locus of decision‐making shifted from the sphere of interest groups to partisan politics. In parliament, the political parties were able to draft bills enjoying wide acceptance thanks to compensations offered to groups particularly vulnerable to new social risks.     

Italian Migration Policies in Times of Crisis: The Policy Gap Reconsidered

Abstract

Numerous studies have shown that there is a structural gap between restrictive migration policies and expansive inflows in democratic countries; yet scholars have not sufficiently reflected on how this gap is shaped in times of crisis. Focusing on the case of Italy in the decade between 2007 and 2017, this article assesses the extent to which the different challenges triggered by the economic and humanitarian crises have affected the structural gap, and which actors have mostly contributed to shape it. Our analysis of the Italian case shows how in the decade of the economic crisis the migration policy gap has not been the result of pressure by actors in the economic and liberal norm spheres, but rather reflects conflictual relationships within the political-institutional sphere between Italian governments and EU institutions.     

Between crises and sanctions: economic policy of the Russian Federation

This paper examines the root causes and features of crises of the Russian economy in 2014–2015 as a combination of structural and institutional problems, as well as cyclical and external shocks. The demand-side model of economic growth based on massive windfall revenue from oil and gas exports from the 2000s is now exhausted, and the country needs to shift to a new, supply-side model of growth. Mobilization and liberalization are discussed as two key economic policy alternatives. The analysis includes historical retrospection, which provides some important lessons from economic developments in the twentieth century: the Great Depression and the period of stagflation, the Soviet industrialization debate and perestroika, and the New Economic Policy in the USSR and the contemporary modernization of China. Special attention is paid to the mechanisms of economic growth acceleration in present-day Russia. They include macroeconomic stabilization, structural and institutional reforms based on liberalization of economic activity, and guarantees of property rights.     

日本跨境群体的多语政策研究

对于跨境群体而言,迁出国与迁入国的政策影响十分深刻。跨境行为发生前,迁出国的政策影响大于迁入国;跨境行为发生后,迁入国的政策影响大于迁出国。迁入国良好的政策拉力,有助于跨境群体跨境行为的实现。迁入国政策拉力越大,跨境群体跨境迁入行为动力越强。迁入国以跨境群体迁入行为能为本国创造国家红利为基本前提。随着少子老龄化的持续加剧,日本迫于人口压力,不断促使跨境群体迁入政策宽松化。跨境群体的迁入,为日本带来国家红利的同时,也造成潜在的社会问题危机。日本政府通过多语政策,缓解跨境群体的负面冲击,稳定整合、层级递进,减少跨境群体与本国群体间的相互排斥。