习近平关于经济全球化的理论阐述与重大部署

当今世界正处于百年未有之大变局,经济全球化面临来自保护主义、单边主义的挑战。习近平对此进行了深入的理论分析,指出经济全球化尽管具有双刃剑效应,但仍符合世界大势和历史规律。解决经济全球化存在的深层次问题,必须在开放、包容、普惠、平衡、共赢五大价值理念的指导下,对世界经济发展进行适度引导,使各国家、各阶层的人群都能分享经济增长带来的收益。中国为构建开放型经贸格局从四个方面进行了重大部署,这些部署将成为新一轮全球化的引擎,也为构建新型国际关系和人类命运共同体勾勒出明确路径。     

经济一体化与国家利益

世界经济发展的规律表现为从国际化起步,发展到全球化,最终成为完全一体化.从经济全球化到一体化是一个长期的渐进过程,对一个主权国家的安全利益、政治利益、经济利益和文化利益等都将产生重大而深刻的影响.作为最大的发展中国家中国,应以积极主动策略应对,以维护和发展国家利益.     

Russia’s idea of the multipolar world order: origins and main dimensions

Contemporary international relations are rife with the ideological struggle over the potential nature of the rapidly changing world order. Two distinct paradigmatic positions have surfaced. One champions economic, cultural, and political globalization conducted under the leadership of the Western world. The other advocates a more particularistic approach that fends for a balance of interests, multiplicity of politico-cultural forms and multiple centers of international influence. The latter doctrine, often referred to as the multipolar world theory, is the subject of this paper. The discussion argues that the idea of a multipolar world order has emerged as Russia’s main ethical and ideological position advanced in the international arena. Its philosophical tenets buttress Russian society intellectually at home, providing the expedients to pursue the country’s foreign policy goals abroad. The paper examines a substantial value package with roots in both Russian and Western philosophy that sustains the multipolar world order theory.     

Good Inflation, Bad Inflation: The Housing Boom, Economic Growth and the Disaggregation of Inflationary Preferences in the UK and Ireland

This article presents a comparative analysis of the determinants, sustenance and broader macroeconomic consequences of the ultimately unsustainable housing boom in Ireland and the UK in recent years. It examines, in particular, the role played by ostensibly depoliticised monetary policy in both contexts in the development of a house price bubble that has served to fuel consumer-led growth. It assesses the viability, sustainability and reproducibility of the private debt-financed consumer boom that house price inflation has generated. In the process it draws attention to the increasingly differentiated character of both government inflationary preferences and counter-inflationary performance—with the shift to official measures of inflation that exclude mortgage interest repayments and, in the UK at least, to the covert re-politicisation of monetary policy. It concludes by suggesting that governments may well not have time-inconsistent inflationary preferences so much as sectorally specific inflationary preferences. This might be summarised in terms of the aphorism: 'retail price inflation bad, house price inflation good'.     

The target strikes back: explaining countersanctions and Russia’s strategy of differentiated retaliation

This article analyzes Russia’s retaliatory food embargo, explaining why the Russian government banned some imports from the West but refrained from banning a range of equally plausible others. I argue that Moscow was following a strategy of differentiated retaliation when selecting which imports to embargo. The countersanctions were not designed to mete out equal punishment on all members of the sanctioning coalition. Rather, Russia purposefully crafted the policy to inflict greater economic damage on some states than others. Utilizing an original data-set on all agricultural and food products that Russia imports, I demonstrate that, ceteris paribus, imports of sizeable commercial value to countries the Kremlin has long viewed as the mainstays of anti-Russian policies were far more likely to have been banned. In contrast, the evidence shows that Moscow stayed its hand in dealing with Europe’s major powers. This analysis both illuminates the policy objectives being pursued by a leading actor in world politics, as well as lays the groundwork for theoretically understanding the geostrategic, political, and economic drivers of countersanctions.     

日本经济政策不确定性与企业研发投资--基于日本上市企业微观数据的实证检验

在梳理日本经济政策不确定性波动情况的基础上,利用2010年-2018年日本上市企业微观数据,通过构建实证模型探讨了日本经济政策不确定性对企业研发的影响,主要结论有:(1)日本经济政策不确定性的提高对企业研发活动产生负面影响;(2)日本经济政策不确定性对企业研发的影响具有行业差异;(3)不同经济政策的不确定性对日本企业研发活动的影响方向不同。贸易政策、金融政策不确定性指数的增加负面冲击企业研发活动,而财政政策、汇率政策不确定性的提高却激励企业研发投资。相较于日本,中国企业研发管理经验较少,风险承担能力较弱,政府更应重视在运用政策手段平滑景气波动的同时,避免政策施行的大起大落,警惕经济政策不确定性的过快、过度提高,尽可能营造、引导产生良好的市场预期,并采取有效措施切实支持企业创新活动。     

"橱窗"的色彩:2001年菲律宾的政治经济形势与菲律宾研究

2001年菲律宾的政治经济发展呈现一种戏剧性的发展态势:弹劾案一波三折,大选后政敌握手,绑架之风愈打愈烈,经济增长引人瞩目.国内外对菲律宾的研究则呈现一种分析视角和结论的独特性:透过纷繁的政治现象,揭示其特色民主和体制设计缺陷;通过分析翔实资料,提出1997-1999年菲律宾的经济衰退本可以避免;运用决策分析法,剖析其对华政策的缺陷.     

Historical Institutionalism and Economic Policymaking – Determinants of the Pattern of Economic Policy in Brazil, 1930–1960

From 1930 to 1960, Brazil adopted a pattern of economic policy marked by strong state intervention, high levels of protectionism, disregard of exports and a permissive treatment of inflation. These policies distorted the model of industrialisation and had a negative impact on the prospects for economic development. This article employs a historical institutionalist approach to investigate how the international context, the ideology of the policymakers, the role of the technocrats and the pressures of various social groups, especially the industrialists, influenced decisions on economic policy, contributing to the consolidation of the pattern described above.     

Economic crisis,families, and family policy in the Baltic states, 2009–2014

ABSTRACT

The three Baltic countries experienced the most rapid population decline throughout the 1990s and 2000s in Europe. The resulting critical demographic situation motivated the governments of the Baltic states to pay more political attention to family policy issues than in the rest of Europe. The aim of the paper is to analyze the development of family policy in Baltic countries and factors that influenced it during the 2009 economic crisis. Also, the outcomes in terms of child poverty and fertility are highlighted. Results show that the economic resources and fertility level had an essential impact on family policy in the Baltic states. Economic support to families, in turn, directly alleviate the poverty level of families and indirectly influence fertility.     

Critical Observations on Neo-liberalism and India’s New Economic Policy

Abstract

Neo-liberalism is capitalism without leftist illusions (i.e. illusions that there can be such a thing as humane capitalism on a long-term basis). The article makes a series of critical comments on India’s neo-liberalism expressed in the form of the so-called New Economic Policy. It argues, New Economic Policy is more than a governmental policy. It is rather a policy of capital, mediated and implemented by the state. Neo-liberalism is a social-spatial project. Neo-liberalism in rural areas (agrarian neo-liberalism) is particularly ruthless. Neo-liberalism is implemented through, and entails, the transformation of space, and thus produces enormous spatial unevenness. Neo-liberalism is also a part of the imperialist project. Given New Economic Policy’s adverse impacts, it has inspired massive resistance from below. Interestingly, in spite of offering some opposition, the left has been, overall, a conduit through which New Economic Policy has worked. The article shows how a critical discussion on neo-liberalism has implications for understanding macro-structural changes in societies such as that of India, which have suffered not only from economic backwardness but also incomplete revolutions. A dialectical view of neo-liberalism and the New Economic Policy connects them both to the democratic and agrarian questions, the national question, and the question of socialism itself.