Simulation of a Constitutional Spending Limit for a Conservative State: With Dynamic Adjustment and Sensitivity Analysis

Longstanding concern about the rate of state and local government spending growth, strengthened by “Great Recession” economic and fiscal conditions, sustains advocacy of constitutional amendments to cap the growth of state and local taxes or spending. For some states, interest recently changed to necessity, and current constitutional limits—most notably the California experience with the Gann Spending limit (1979–1990) and the Colorado experience with its Taxpayer Bill of Rights (1992‐present)—contain numerous valuable lessons for fiscal restraint proponents. We use those lessons, and others, to develop a constitutional spending limit (CSL) for Utah, and describe a CSL simulation for the state for 1990–2009. In contrast to what an “Institutional Irrelevance Perspective” suggests for a politically conservative state such as Utah, we find that Utah would have seen large and robust CSL impacts from setting the spending growth rate at school‐age population plus inflation for K‐12 education funding, and at population plus inflation for remaining nonexempt state spending.¹ Those impacts include a reduced tax burden, sizable reserves to cope with emergencies, elimination of fiscal crises, and expanded personal income. Extensive sensitivity analysis identifies the key underlying factors and demonstrates the robustness of those findings. We compare the Utah results to a 1990–2009 CSL simulation for California, and a 1995–2009 CSL simulation for Ohio.     

Spending Stabilization Rules: A Solution to Recurring State Budget Crises?

Recurring state fiscal crises raise a fundamental question: Is it possible to stabilize budgets over the business cycle? This paper examines spending stabilization rules, an alternative to the inaccurate process of budget forecasting. Under two spending rules, we assess how state budget situations would compare with actual experience. Our analysis reconstructs recent aggregate state budget patterns assuming states had adopted a rule and then takes a closer look at California and South Carolina. With surpluses partially invested in a rainy‐day fund, a spending rule resulted in stable growth of state budgets throughout the recession and sluggish recovery of the early 2000s.     

Contribution limits and the effectiveness of campaign spending

Much work on the apparent ineffectiveness on incumbent spending in congressional elections has hypothesized that the productivity of incumbent spending is low because incumbents operate on the “flat part” of their election returns function. Differences in campaign spending associated with state campaign finance laws allows for a test of this hypothesis because restrictions on campaign contributions tend to reduce campaign spending. Exploiting cross-state variation in campaign finance laws, this study tests whether campaign expenditures by state House candidates are more productive when candidates are subject to contribution limits. The results show that campaign expenditures by incumbents and challengers are more productive when candidates run in states with campaign contribution limits, as opposed to in states without limits. In states with contribution limits, incumbent spending and challenger spending are equally productive, and spending by both candidates is quantitatively important in increasing their vote shares.     

Which democracies prosper? Electoral rules, form of government and economic growth

Electoral rules and form of government have important economic effects, for example on taxation and public spending. However, there are no robust results in the literature when it comes to their effect on economic growth. This paper investigates whether electoral rules and form of government affects economic growth by applying panel data techniques on a very extensive dataset. There is no robust effect of presidentialism or parliamentarism on growth. However, there is very robust evidence for a positive, and quite substantial, effect of Proportional Representation (PR) electoral rules on economic growth. This is partly due to PR systems’ propensity to generate broad-interest policies, like universal education spending, property rights protection and free-trade, rather than special interest economic policies. Also semi-proportional systems seem to enhance growth relative to plural-majoritarian systems.     

Road to Ruin? A Spatial Analysis of State Highway Spending

Do states engage in infrastructure expenditure competition to attract new economic activity? Economic theory is inconclusive on the matter. States might respond to increased infrastructure spending in competitor states by increasing their own infrastructure spending. Conversely, states may decrease spending in the presence of positive spillovers from competitor states' infrastructure investment. Using spatial econometric techniques and focusing specifically on highway spending, we demonstrate that states expend less on highways when spending in neighboring states increases. We explore this possibility further by modeling state personal income growth as a function of own‐state and neighbor‐state highway spending. Our findings suggest positive spillovers influence interstate relationships for highway spending rather than race‐to‐the‐top competition for economic activity.     

Municipal Capital Spending during the "Boom"

This article analyzes municipal governments, capital spending, and revenue-raising decisions between 1993 and 2000, an era of unprecedented economic growth. It finds that, as anticipated, greater-than-expected revenues allowed many cities to advance projects from their capital improvement plans to their capital budgets. Moreover, the article concludes that growth in cities' own-source-revenue-generating capacity and transfers from carryover or ending balances from earlier years, rather than debt issuances and intergovernmental aid, seem to be the most important fuel for the remarkable growth rate in capital spending.     

Do fiscal rules dampen the political business cycle?

This paper develops and tests the theory that fiscal rules limit politicians' ability to manipulate the budget for electoral gain. Using panel data from the American states, I find evidence suggesting that stringent balanced budget rules dampen the political business cycle. That is, while spending rises before and falls after elections in states that can carry deficits into the next fiscal year, this pattern does not exist in states with strict “no-carry” rules. Neither binding gubernatorial term limits nor the partisan composition of government appear to significantly affect the magnitude of the political business cycle.     

SUB‐NATIONAL GOVERNMENT CAPITAL SPENDING IN INDONESIA: LEVEL,STRUCTURE, AND FINANCING

Sub‐national government capital spending is important for both public service delivery and economic development. Currently, Indonesian sub‐national public capital spending appears barely sufficient to cover the annual depreciation of its fixed assets. A substantial proportion of local government investment spending goes to create relatively unproductive assets, such as administrative office buildings. Sub‐national governments finance their capital acquisitions out of gross operating budgets and have thus far not used, to any great extent, either borrowed funds or their significant cash reserves for such purposes. Indonesian sub‐nationals need to spend more on capital than they do now and also need to focus that spending on more useful types of infrastructure. The major constraints to increasing capital spending at the sub‐national level are not related to a dearth of finance, but regulatory rigidities in budget preparation and implementation and, most importantly, a lack of capacity to plan, design and implement investment projects. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conditional contraction: Globalisation and capitalist systems

The effect of globalisation on social spending is one of the most intensely studied issues in the political economy literature. Until recently, conventional wisdom held that globalisation leads governments to expand social spending to compensate workers for increasing risk exposure. The latest research shows, however, that globalisation has become strongly associated with spending cutbacks since the late 1980s. This article adds to this research by arguing that the negative impact of globalisation is conditioned on the capitalist system in different countries. In coordinated market economies (CMEs), employers are dependent on the willingness of the workforce to invest in specific skills and therefore become supportive of extensive social spending. Not so in liberal market economies (LMEs), where employers are much less dependent on social spending because the workforce in general invests less in specific skills. Employers in LMEs are therefore likely to use increasing globalisation as a means to push through retrenchment, whereas employers in CMEs are not. This argument is tested in a time‐series cross‐section regression analysis, which clearly supports it.     

Fiscal consolidation and economic growth in India: Do policymakers need to shift focus from quantity to quality of fiscal adjustments?

This paper evaluates the impacts of fiscal consolidation programmes and their composition on the growth rate of national income for Indian economy. More specifically the study tries to address two questions that is, composition of consolidation and its resultant impact on growth rate of income and the relative desirability of alternative sources of deficit financing that is, internal versus external borrowing. The study employed time series data from 1990–1991 to 2017–2018 and used the technique of ordinary least square and generalized method of moments. The study finds that, in long run, fiscal consolidation need not be necessarily recessionary in nature. Moreover, the composition of consolidation was found to have a significant impact. The study could not extend empirical support in favour of back‐loaded (spending financed) consolidation design as has been established for advanced economies. Moreover the study could not establish the negative impacts of revenue funded (both tax and non‐tax) fiscal consolidation on the growth rate of economy. The study documented that it is desirable to target expenditures such as subsidies, transfers and interest payments to infuse more discipline. A judicious mixture of both spending cuts and revenue increase may be a better strategy to consolidate in order to have better returns. The study highlighted that the external source of deficit financing is always costlier against the internal borrowings. The study noted that it is imperative on part of policymakers to shift their focus from quantity to the quality of deficits and the resultant consolidation programmes.     

Measuring the impact of community development block grant spending on urban neighborhoods

Abstract

Regression analysis of Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) spending in 17 large cities reveals strong statistical associations between spending from 1994 to 1996 and changes in three indicators of neighborhood conditions: the home purchase mortgage approval rate, the median amount of the home purchase loans originated, and the number of businesses. However, there is no consistent association between spending and indicators of subsequent neighborhood change unless CDBG spending is sufficiently spatially targeted that it exceeds a threshold of the sample mean expenditure and is measured relative to the number of poor residents. In addition, associations vary according to neighborhood trajectories before investment and changes in the local economy.

Nevertheless, even in the least hospitable contexts—highly concentrated neighborhood poverty, preexisting declines in home values, weak city job growth—our estimates are consistent with the hypothesis that above‐threshold CDBG spending produces significant neighborhood improvements. We discuss the implications for such spatially targeted spending and connections between our work and the emerging literature on the dynamics of poor neighborhoods.     

Has the Shift to Managed Care Reduced Medicaid Expenditures? Evidence from State and Local‐Level Mandates

From 1991 to 2009, the fraction of Medicaid recipients enrolled in HMOs and other forms of Medicaid managed care (MMC) increased from 11 percent to 71 percent. This increase was largely driven by state and local mandates that required most Medicaid recipients to enroll in an MMC plan. Theoretically, it is ambiguous whether the shift from fee‐for‐service into managed care would lead to an increase or a reduction in Medicaid spending. This paper investigates this effect using a data set on state‐ and local‐level MMC mandates and detailed data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) on state Medicaid expenditures. The findings suggest that shifting Medicaid recipients from fee‐for‐service into MMC did not on average reduce Medicaid spending. If anything, our results suggest that the shift to MMC increased Medicaid spending and that this effect was especially present for risk‐based HMOs. However, the effects of the shift to MMC on Medicaid spending varied significantly across states as a function of the generosity of the state's baseline Medicaid provider reimbursement rates.     

The Rise and (Relative) Fall of Earmarks: Congress and Reform, 2006–2010

Congressional earmark reform efforts began in 2006. This paper reviews the literature on earmarks and documents the rise and relative fall in earmark spending using four databases. It identifies and critiques earmark reforms, including congressional rules and initiatives taken by the appropriations committees and congressional party organizations. Rules and committee‐initiated reforms were the most effective, producing significant improvements in transparency and expediting availability of information. The number of earmarks and their dollar value first dropped noticeably in 2007 after an earmark moratorium, then stabilized as reforms were implemented. It is premature to conclude that reforms will alter the policy content of earmarks or their distribution.     

Why Do Foundations Follow the Law? Evidence from Adoption of the Uniform Prudent Management of Institutional Funds Act

Employing a large panel of over one million firm‐years, I find evidence consistent with widespread compliance with law among U.S. private foundations despite the absence of many formal deterrence mechanisms. The research design exploits rolling state adoption of the Uniform Prudent Management of Institutional Funds Act, which lifted some existing limits on firm spending for a fraction of firms within each state. This allows the use of triple‐difference estimates that control for changes in local norms and economic conditions. UPMIFA increases firm spending, on average, implying that firms were complying with the pre‐UPMIFA regime. Interacting the triple‐difference factors with other predictors of compliance reveals no correlation between compliance and enforcement intensity, but some evidence that compliance is correlated with firm culture and reliance on accountants. These findings have potentially important implications for the governance of charitable organizations, and may speak more generally to drivers of compliance among other organizational forms.     

Good Cuts,Bad Cuts: The Need for Expenditure Analysis in Decremental Budgeting*

Quantitative targets are widely used in decremental budgeting. On the macro-level, governments set global limits for the growth of public expenditures, government deficits, or the ratio of government spending to GNP. On the micro-level, reduction targets are frequently assigned to spending ministries or agencies on a selective basis or across-the-board. While this kind of targetry appears to be indispensable to achieve cutbacks, it is also very deficient in that it treats public expenditures as a fungible commodity, consisting of interchangeable units of account. As austerity policies are coming of age, the inherent weaknesses in the targets approach attract increasing attention, and there is growing concern about the quality of austerity measures. To make sound decisions on such measures, governments must develop a better understanding of the characteristics and properties of various public expenditures. This paper outlines four varieties of expenditure analysis that may contribute to ‘the leap from quantity to quality’ in decremental budgeting.     

Corporate citizenship and social responsibility in a globalized world

This article addresses the rise of corporate citizenship in the context of the changes in the nature of individual citizenship and the emergence of new, non‐territorial forms of national identity that are occurring in the current era of intensifying globalization. It also ponders the power of corporate citizens and the role they play in the prevailing global governance framework, as well as the extent to which they can behave responsibly and pursue sustainable development goals. More generally, the article discusses the limits to corporate social responsibility and the extent to which capitalism can be ‘caring’. The argument advanced is that, by virtue of their very nature, transnational corporations (TNCs) cannot become fully responsible and accountable citizens. Nonetheless, they can be induced to transform themselves in ways that may be compatible with socially and environmentally desirable objectives. Lastly, the article explores paths for action and, in particular, the potential of NGOs and anti‐globalization social movements to become civil regulators able to push for the introduction of binding rules and regulations and the construction a governance framework capable of restraining and harnessing the power of TNCs.     

Parkinson's Law and the New Public Management? Contracting Determinants and Service‐Quality Consequences in Public Education

Why is contracting used more frequently under some circumstances than others? What is its impact on spending for core mission and on service quality? These questions are explored with data from more than 1,000 Texas school districts. The evidence for a recent three‐year period shows that contracting is negatively related to spending on school districts' central task and is not positively associated with district performance. Why, then, do districts contract? While several variables are associated with the degree of contracting, the most interesting is the relative size of a district's bureaucratic staff. Furthermore, the relationship between contracting and bureaucracy is reciprocal: Each is associated with subsequent growth in the other. The dynamic suggests an updated version of Parkinson's law. These findings indicate the need for researchers to probe the causes and consequences of contracting more thoroughly to help public managers assess this important option.     

Buttery Guns and Welfare Hawks: The Politics of Defense Spending in Advanced Industrial Democracies

In this article, we present a new theory that, given the economic consequences of military spending, some governments may use military spending as a means of advancing their domestic non‐military objectives. Based on evidence that governments can use military spending as welfare policy in disguise, we argue that the role of ideology in shaping military spending is more complicated than simple left‐right politics. We also present a theory that strategic elites take advantage of opportunities presented by international events, leading us to expect governments that favor more hawkish foreign policy policies to use low‐level international conflicts as opportunities for increasing military spending. Using pooled time‐series data from 19 advanced democracies in the post–World War II period, we find that government ideology, measured as welfare and international positions, interacts with the international security environment to affect defense spending.     

Guns vs. Taxes? A Look at How Defense Spending Affects U.S. Federal Tax Policy

Although studies have shown a theoretical and empirical link between defense spending and economic growth and between economic growth and tax policy, the impact of defense spending on federal tax policy remains largely unexplored. This paper proposes a theoretical model and empirical test to explore the direct and indirect effects of defense spending on federal tax policy. The findings suggest that consumption expenditures for national defense directly influence the federal corporate income tax rate. However, the analysis finds no indirect relationship between defense spending and federal tax policy mediated through economic growth.     

The relationship between congressional spending and tenure with an application to term limits

Whether term limits would increase or decrease federal spending depends on the reason for the causal relationship between tenure and spending. We investigate this subject by empirically studying congressional spending and tenure for all United States House and Senate members who entered Congress between the 94th and 102nd Congresses (1975–1992). As our measure of congressional spending we use the National Taxpayers Union's Congressional Spending Scores. Our study finds that a statistically significant relationship exists between congressional spending and tenure for some groups of congressmen. We then test three hypotheses relating tenure and spending. No single hypothesis is consistent with all of our empirical results. Nevertheless, the small sizes of the empirical effects estimated in this study suggest that term limits would have an inconsequential impact on the level of federal spending – at least via the “moral hazard” mechanisms described in this paper.