Turkish Popular Presidential Elections: Deepening Legitimacy Issues and Looming Regime Change

This paper examines the politics of presidential elections in Turkey with particular reference to the 10 August 2014 presidential elections. It starts by scrutinising the change in the presidential election system from parliamentary to direct popular vote. It then probes the implementation of the new election rules, candidate selection, and the conduct of the campaign, followed by analysis of the election results and their influence on the Turkish record of democratisation. The paper concludes that the move to a partisan president elected by popular vote entails democratic dangers if the new incumbent does not abide by his or her constitutional role and attempts to intervene in government policy.     

Support for Democracy and Political Opposition in Russia, 1993-1995

Ukraine's 2006 parliamentary election was deemed free and fair by outside observers, at least as compared to elections in other states of the former USSR and most notably as compared to the second (November) round of its 2004 presidential vote. In earlier research we applied several statistical forensic indicators to official election returns to assess the extent of fraud in that election and in Russia, and we used those indicators to confirm that Ukraine's December presidential runoff rerun was largely devoid of the fraud that undermined the November vote's legitimacy. Here we apply those same indicators to official returns from Ukraine's 2006 vote, not simply to confirm what observers conclude about that election but also to lend credence to the indicators themselves.     

A Resurgent Presidency? Portuguese Semi-Presidentialism and the 2016 Elections

This article analyses the Portuguese presidential elections of January 2016, setting these within the backdrop of recent semi-presidential practice in Portugal. The election took place in the context of an apparent hollowing of the presidency, a pattern that potentially reflects the bailout that marked most of the second term of the outgoing president, Cavaco Silva. This pattern also helps explain the second-order nature of this presidential election. Despite potentially being an ‘open’ election – in that the incumbent had reached term limits – the election was characterised by low citizen mobilisation, low partisan involvement and low competitiveness. The initial two months of the newly elected president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, suggests he is seeking to invert this hollowing pattern by mobilising popular support behind the presidency.     

'Brazil Needs to Change': Change as Iteration and the Iteration of Change in Brazil's 2002 Presidential Election1

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's triumph in Brazil's 2002 presidential election was construed in terms of a promise of radical change against the holders of the status quo . This article argues that in fact a more subtle political game was a stake in the election, a contest over the meaning and limits of change itself. The article examines how the various players – Lula da Silva, outgoing president Fernando Henrique Cardoso and the PSDB's presidential candidate José Serra – invoked and iterated a discourse of change to define and redefine the political dividing lines that marked out the electoral dispute and attempted to set or fix the distinctions between their political positions.     

Model or deterrence? The United States presidential election campaigns and the bundestag election campaigns

This article focuses on the election of the President of the United States of America in 2004 and on the premature election of the Bundestag in Germany in 2005. The main questions which are discussed are: Where can we currently discern central similarities in campaigning, which remain functionally powerful despite the considerable differences in system and context? What can be learned from the United States 2004 presidential election campaign for future Bundestag election campaigns in Germany? Can we observe developments in the USA which we have already seen in the 2005 Bundestag election? Could these trends be useful for the German parties in the future? This contribution argues that there are some developments in the United States which may prove useful to the German parties in future Bundestag campaigns.     

Campañas negativas en las elecciones 2000 y 2006 en México

This article explores the nature of negative campaigns that were held in both 2000 and 2006 Mexican presidential elections. The purpose is to establish that the generalized use of negative campaigning concurs with the development of two unusual electoral processes: the transition of the State party into an opposition party (2000), and its consolidation as government (2006). Based on the theoretical claims of Shiv (1997), Lau (1999), and Finkel (1998), the author describes the development of negative campaigns in those elections that represented the starting point and the presumed consummation of the use of this kind of campaigns. With journals’ documented records and the monitoring of tv spots of both elections it is established that the 2000 presidential election used negative campaigns based on decrying the official party, while the 2006 election resorted to negative tv spots.     

The Role of Elections in the Peace-Building and Reconstruction of Afghanistan

Reconstruction of a failed state is possible by focusing on building up three pillars closely interlinked to each other: political process, civil order through security reform and reconstruction. Political process will provide a foundation for the other two. Civil order through security reform will allow the political process to proceed and reconstruction will enhance the people's confidence in the future. In Afghanistan, the political roadmap has been agreed upon in Bonn. Drawing upon traditional wisdom, the process has now come to the final stage, that is, the national-assembly and local elections. Prior to that, the presidential election was staged reasonably smoothly, against a tremendous number of difficulties, among them the terrorists' threat to the people not to vote. The main factor in the success of the presidential election was the people's participation through voting, thus defying the threat of terrorists. The tasks ahead towards peace and prosperity in Afghanistan are still tremendous and complex. It is, however, not an impossible task if the Afghan people and the international community are committed to working together henceforward, too.     

The Personal Is Political: The Cuban Ethnic Electoral Policy Cycle

This article documents a U.S. Cuban foreign policy cycle that operated in tandem with the presidential electoral cycle between 1992 and 2004. During these post–Cold War years, when Cuba posed no threat to U.S. national security, influential, well-organized Cuban Americans leveraged political contributions and votes to tighten the embargo on travel and trade, especially at the personal level. U.S. presidential candidates, most notably incumbent presidents seeking re-election, responded to their demands with discretionary powers of office. When presidential candidates supported policies that made good electoral sense but conflicted with concerns of state, they subsequently reversed or left unimplemented Cuba initiatives. After describing the logic behind an ethnic electoral policy cycle and U.S. personal embargo policy between 1992 and 2004, this article examines Cuban American voter participation, political and policy preferences, lobbying, political contributions, and the relationship between the ethnic policy and presidential election cycles.     

Namibia's national assembly and presidential elections 2009: Did democracy win?

National Assembly and presidential elections were held in Namibia on 27 and 28 November 2009. The former liberation movement South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO) once again secured an overwhelming majority of votes, which consolidated its de facto one-party rule. But the build up to these elections, the contestation by a newly established party and the disputed election results indicated a growing polarisation and a totalitarian tendency, which dents the positive image hitherto associated with Namibian democracy. This election analysis summarises features before, during and after the elections and puts the voting results into a party political context.     

Defending Negativity? Evidence from Presidential Campaigns in Taiwan

This article presents an empirical analysis of TV and newspaper advertising across four presidential election campaigns in Taiwan. The findings suggest that although there are high levels of negativity, negative claims are a potential source of substantive information for voters. The findings support theoretical expectations derived from work in the US, and confirm that negative advertising can be a prevalent mode of campaign communication in non-western, newer democracies.     

The Chilean presidential elections of 1999–2000 and democratic consolidation

This article examines the campaign and the outcome of the presidential elections held in 1999–2000 in Chile. It argues that the election marks a crucial phase in the consolidation of democracy in Chile. It can be seen as the first “normal” election since the return to democracy in 1990. It was unusually competitive and the result was in doubt until the second round vote. The election was notable for its emphasis on the future. Issues of the past were largely ignored ‐ as was the position of General Pinochet in London. The campaign of the Right was based upon an above‐party appeal while that of the ruling coalition relied on the traditional weight of parties in Chile. The result can be seen as an endorsement of the policies of the Concertacion government, but it also represented a resurgence of the Right. The victorious candidate, Ricardo Lagos, has stressed his commitment to social justice and to equity ‐ but he faces the problem of a governing coalition with internal differences still to be resolved, and a Right better placed to be a formidable opposition.     

Election through complaint and controversy for political power in Chile, 1874–1925

SUMMARY

This article offers reflections on the power relations between the executive and legislative branches of the Chilean state by examining the way political parties leveraged the electoral system to balance the weight of each branch in the configuration of government. The period from 1874 to 1924 is framed by a cycle of reforms to Chile’s 1833 constitution that were pushed through by liberal sectors to limit the power of the executive under the country’s presidential regime, efforts that contributed to a final breakdown of the presidential regime following civil war in 1891. That year the victorious revolutionary forces implemented a parliamentarian system that remained in place until it was overthrown by a military coup. The literature on this process has studied the use of legislative manoeuvres such as obstruction, accusation and filibuster by political parties to weaken the executive power. Little has been written, however, about the way parties exploited the rules and procedures of the electoral system and, specifically, the use of official complaints and the process known as calificación (qualification) by which congress audited final election results. This article will help fill that void, focusing on understanding how both practices worked and the effects that the election reforms of 1874, 1884 and 1890 had on them.     

Émile Lousse: A personal appreciation

It is well known that nineteenth-century France can be regarded as a laboratory of political experimentation. From the perspective of constititutional history, it was in the course of the 1848 Revolution that the first cycle of experiments was completed (1791–1848). Alphonse de Lamartine's celebrated speech to the National Assembly in favour of the direct election of the President of the Republic has its place within this framework. It also merits detailed analysis because it heralds a new political era. Parts of the speech throw light on Lamartine's project, his ideas about the politics of the people and about the man who should lead it. A study of the speech reveals some surprises. One is dealing with a strange mixture of notions about public law, of romantic ideas, and of oriental prophecies. Yet, by an irony of history, the speech was to facilitate the accession to power of Louis Napoleon Bonaparte. In the presidential election of 10 December, the nephew of Napoleon I obtained more than five million votes, whereas Lamartine had fewer than 18,000. The significance of this episode is not limited to Lamartine's personal failure. It invites reflection on the romantic roots of the strong presidential model. Thanks to the support of France's most famous poet, the idea of a linkage between the people and its leader was to take root in Western political culture extending beyond the time span of the second phase of Bonapartism.     

Contradiction Without Paradox: Evangelical Political Culture in the 1998 Venezuelan Elections

Venezuelan Evangelicals' responses to candidates in that country's 1998 presidential election seem to confirm the view that their political culture is inconsistent, contradictory, and paradoxical. Not only were they just as likely to support nationalist ex–coup leader Hugo Chávez as was the larger population, they also rejected Venezuela's one Evangelical party when it made a clientelist pact with the infamous candidate of Venezuela's discredited Social Democratic party. This article uses concepts from recent cultural theory to analyze qualitative data from these two cases and make sense of the contradictory nature of Evangelical politics.     

ZANU(PF) strategies in general elections, 1980-2000: Discourse and coercion

For many analysts, the general election campaign in 2000 showeda new face of the ruling party, ZANU(PF). Against the new oppositionparty, the Movement for Democratic Change, ZANU(PF) engagedin violence and intimidation, often relying on youth and warveterans, even as it accused its opponents of subversive violence.Moreover, ZANU(PF) appealed to its liberation war credentials,while dismissing its chief opponents as puppets of British imperialismand reactionary white settlers. After the election, PresidentMugabe appealed for reconciliation between winners and losers,only to permit violence against those who had voted againstthe ruling party. For ruling party perpetrators of violence,there was impunity and later a presidential pardon. The purposeof this article is to demonstrate how the ruling party usedremarkably similar strategies in every general election since1980, notwithstanding striking differences in the contexts,issues, and nature of the chief opposition party. Given thiswell established pattern of ruling party violence and intimidationand characterization of opposition parties as illegitimate,the article seeks to understand why analysts repeatedly sawin the regular multiparty elections either a democratic systemor one that was amenable to democratization.     

The Formation of the New Government in Taiwan and Japan-Taiwan Relations

This article introduces the background of the presidential and congressional election and discusses the reason for the results. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won both the presidential and congress members' elections, which signals emergence of the first real regime change in Taiwan. However, the style of the Tsai government isn't the same as that of the Chen Shui-bian government and will probably adopt a more modest policy on the cross-strait issue. On the other hand, the Nationalist Party (KMT) lost the election so severely that it's so difficult to recover the situation. On this point, it’s possible that the policy framework of Taiwan, like a two party system, will change drastically in the near future. Foreign policy, especially policy regarding Japan, will be changed by the new government. Actually, the People's Republic of China (PRC) government basically didn't interfere with Ma's foreign policy, so Ma could achieve many foreign policy initiatives. He concluded an economic partnership agreement (EPA) with Singapore and New Zealand, and agreements for investment and fishing with Japan. However, the PRC probably won't provide enough room for foreign policy for the Tsai government.     

The Gambian 2016 Presidential Election and its Aftermath

This article explores the Gambian presidential election of December 2016, which was very surprisingly won by the leader of an opposition coalition, Adama Barrow, and its extraordinary aftermath. Barrow defeated Yahya Jammeh, who had won the four previous presidential elections, thus ending Jammeh’s 20-year rule of The Gambia, which had been marred by human rights abuses. Jammeh at first accepted the result, but changed his mind a week later, thus triggering a major political crisis. Over the next month, he made various desperate attempts to cling to power, before finally leaving the country on 21 January 2017, when faced with the prospect of being removed by force. Barrow, who had earlier been inaugurated as president, finally returned to Banjul on 26 January to assume office. The article concludes by considering the possible key features of a Barrow presidency and assesses the challenges that he will face.     

The Collapse of Fujimorismo: Authoritarianism and its Limits

The resignation of Alberto Fujimori as president of Peru and the convening of fresh elections for 2001 invites a reassessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the Fujimorato . Fujimori's was a hybrid regime, an uneasy admixture of democratic and autocratic elements. While following prescribed election timetables and tolerating certain opposition, this was an authoritarian government. Grounded on a pact with the armed forces and involving a concentration of presidential power, its support was organised along populist lines that took advantage of the weakness of political parties. However, as the regime's demise suggests, the tension between democratic and autocratic elements could never be properly reconciled.     

Party opportunism among local politicians after Taiwan’s power transition

This paper probes into a hypothesised opportunism towards political party affiliation among local politicians in Taiwan since the power transition from Kuomintang (KMT) to Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) rule began in 2000. Longitudinal changes in election candidates' party affiliation are analysed to see what happened to the KMT's supposedly strong base of local politicians after the change of governing party. The research finds a generally high propensity of election candidates' changing or dropping their party affiliation between elections, and an increased propensity among KMT candidates after 2000. However, defections to other parties are more common in higher elections. In grassroots elections, many candidates flow in and out of their party affiliation depending on the political circumstances, but they rarely change party. Several years after the DPP gained power in presidential elections, the new ruling party is still struggling to build a strong local party organisation.     

Policies,Principles, and Polls: Bill Clinton’s Third Way Welfare Politics 1992–1996

Bill Clinton in his 1992 presidential campaign promised that, if elected, he would bring about the “end of welfare as we know it.” This catchy election pledge aimed to address middle class concerns about so–called welfare dependency while also arguing that the government had an important role to play in fighting poverty and unemployment. Clinton’s Third Way position, at best, offered a way out of the liberal/conservative impasse on how to effectively reform America’s welfare system. At worst, Clinton’s position undermined the concept of welfare entitlements that the Democratic Party had established in America. As it turned out, in 1996 during the lead up to that year’s presidential election, President Clinton signed into law the most significant federal welfare Act since the 1960s. However, the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (PRWORA) that Clinton signed had largely been drafted by congressional Republicans. This article draws on interviews with three of Clinton’s senior welfare advisers to examine his welfare reform proposals and politics. It concludes that the failure of Clinton’s Third Way welfare agenda opened the way for more conservative reforms. This experience is illustrative of the pitfalls of Third Way politics with its mix of post–entitlement welfare policies and hard–nosed electoral positioning.