欧亚地缘政治形势与大国博弈

欧亚地区对于中国发展与安全具有重要意义。新中国的发展历史与欧亚地区地缘政治进程有着密切联系,70多年发展历程中的几乎所有重大事件都发生在欧亚地区或者与之相关。欧亚在世界地缘政治版图中的地位决定了该地区的复杂性和重要性。当前欧亚地缘政治进程的主要内容包括:俄罗斯主导的欧亚一体化进程、美国与俄罗斯在后苏联空间的博弈、后苏联主权国家建设进程及其多元外交、中俄两国在欧亚地区的对接合作等。欧亚地区也是各种地缘政治理念和国际关系行为体碰撞的舞台,既有冷战思维、行为的遗毒,也有人类命运共同体理念和多极世界理念的实践。新冠疫情不同程度地改变了人们对国际关系的看法,各国开始更加重视主权和民族利益,更加关注在复杂的世界变局中谋求公平、公正的合作进程。新时代中俄全面战略协作伙伴关系的健康发展,正成为欧亚地区和平与稳定不可替代的积极因素。     

俄罗斯东部能源发展战略评析

东西伯利亚和远东对于俄罗斯的整体发展具有十分重要的地缘政治和社会经济意义。2009年11月13日,俄联邦政府通过的《2030年前俄罗斯能源战略》对其东部地区给予了特别关注,俄能源部门发展的5个战略性倡议中有4项直接涉及东部能源产业的长远发展问题。作为世界经济增长速度最快的区域,亚太地区是最值得俄罗斯期待的能源出口市场,...     

俄罗斯亚太战略及对中俄合作的意义

近年来,俄罗斯在对外政策上坚定地向亚太地区倾斜。俄罗斯加强与亚太地区的经济联系,主要借助于其东部地区。这一地区是世界上自然资源最丰富的地区之一,在国家经济中占有重要地位。俄罗斯亚太战略的核心思想是顺应世界经济一体化的趋势,利用西伯利亚与远东地区的地缘、资源、科技和交通运输等优势,积极同中国、日本等亚太国家发展多领域的合作,促进俄罗斯东部地区乃至全俄罗斯经济的发展。     

东欧中亚问题研究资料索引 1995年9月—10月

前苏联苏联演变的轨迹田保国关于苏联参加对日作战的问题【俄〕B.济莫宁关于苏联建立“东方战线”的重新思考李冠乾万安中列宁廉政建设和惩治腐败的理论与实践徐隆彬今日东欧中亚当代世界当代世界与社会主义东欧中亚研究95 .5期95,9期牙5,4期95.5期独联体独联体一体化将如何发展刘小军原苏联地区国家金融制度现状(一)丁佩华编译和平与发展欧亚观察95。4期95,5期俄罗斯期期政治俄罗斯议会竟选运动全而展开万成才俄罗斯议会竟选拉开帷幕俱孟年写在俄罗斯两大选举前鲍世奋俄罗斯议会大选:谁将获胜(之一)赵华胜俄罗斯大选后将出现联合政府格局…     

俄罗斯形势学术讨论会综述

不久前上海市国际关系学会、上海国际问题研究中心、上海东欧中亚学会、上海社科院欧亚研究所以及解放日报社等联合举行“近规俄罗斯政治、经济形势及中俄关系”学术讨论会。复旦大学、华东师范大学、上海外国语大学,上海社会科学院、上海国际问题研究所等教学、研究机构的专家,学者、上海国际关系学会、东欧中亚学会的部分会员参加会议,就     

独联体情况点滴

读者喜欢的报纸1992年9月6日“社会意见”基金组织选择俄罗斯14个有代表性的城市的成年居民中进行调查问卷:“在前苏联地区您最喜欢的报纸是什么报?”结果如下:《论据与事实》20%,《共青真理报》15%,《劳动报》13%,地方报纸12%,《消息报》4%《体育报》3%,《莫斯科共青团员》3%,《真理报》2%,《苏维埃俄罗斯报》2%《莫斯科新闻》1%     

欧亚经济联盟内部与外部分工网络的基本特征及其影响因素分析

欧亚经济联盟作为一个经济一体化组织,在2015年成立之后获得了较快的发展。依照区域与全球生产分工网络的理论和社会网络分析法得出,在欧亚经济联盟内部生产分工方面,欧亚经济联盟已形成了以俄罗斯为核心、具有一定规模和深度的生产分工网络,但分工层次与水平不高,且成员国对联盟内部贸易依赖性相对较小。在联盟外部生产分工网络中,欧亚经济联盟仅仅在初级产品贸易网络中处于核心地位,在零部件、半成品与最终品贸易网络中仅处于半边缘或边缘地位,产业链分工水平较低,这是由各成员国的比较优势、要素禀赋与经济结构所决定的。分析表明,欧亚经济联盟的内部生产分工存在局限性,而分工地位与产业链水平的提升关键在于培育产业基础能力和增强产业国际竞争力,实现“一带一盟”对接则可以为欧亚经济联盟实现上述目标增添新的动力与活力。     

俄罗斯的亚太外交

自1992年末俄罗斯提出东西方平衡的“双头鹰”外交政策以来,日益重视亚太外交。这一外交政策的调整和亚太外交力度加大,表明俄罗斯已逐渐根据其政治、经济和安全利益,提高亚太外交的地位。亚太外交已在俄罗斯实现其欧亚大国战略中占有越来越重要的地位。     

莫斯科十月事件的若干问题

莫斯科10月事件,是苏联解体后,前苏联地区具有头等重要意义的大事,这一事件表明俄罗斯社会政治结构出现了一个质的变化,也表明俄罗斯作为前苏联的法定继承国今后可能出现的新的发展方向。本文从以下8个方面展开此题。     

韩国的新北方政策与俄罗斯远东和西伯利亚开发

韩国新北方政策(即"欧亚倡议")的提出有诸多的因素。欧亚地区在国际政治、经济中地位的不断上升,是一个重要的外部背景。欧亚倡议的最终目标,是为实现朝鲜半岛的统一铺平道路。韩国欧亚倡议的核心合作范围,应该包括俄罗斯远东和西伯利亚、中国的东北三省、独联体成员国以及蒙古。欧亚地区是朝鲜半岛经济持续发展与和平统一的关键。欧亚倡议所选择的最重要伙伴是俄罗斯。欧亚倡议面临的挑战也很多,如韩国与朝鲜之间信任的缺乏、韩国与欧亚国家之间相互投资的不平衡等。     

21世纪的中国与俄罗斯:地区挑战与机遇—“瓦尔代”国际辩论俱乐部俄中分组讨论提纲

关于亚太地区当前格局问题,中俄双方学者均认为美国与欧洲先后陷入危机,未来5至8年将呈现收缩态势,在全球尤其是亚太地区的影响力全面衰落。俄方学者认为,在欧美因为经济危机陷入衰退的同时,以中国为代表的亚洲经济体却保持了蒸蒸日上的增长势头,国际经济中心已经向亚太地区转移,国际政治中心也将会向亚太地区转移。中方学者则认为,美国处于相对衰落的过程,而中国、俄罗斯、印度等新兴大国同时崛起,参与全球治理进程,国际权力出现扁平化,竞争的中心向亚太地区加速转移。在亚洲高速发展的现实情况下,美国主导的军事同盟体系已不适应亚洲经济一体化的进程。俄方认为,2011年,美国重返亚洲,利用中国与周边国家的领土争端,加强在本地区的军事同盟体系,大有围堵中国之势。俄罗斯融入亚太需要和平的地区形势,建议在中、俄、美之间建立三边安全机制,为本地区中小国家提供安全保障。中方认为,在新的地区形势下,应当建立与之相适应的地区政治、经济、安全秩序,欢迎并愿意协助俄罗斯在亚洲发挥积极的、建设性的作用。但是新的地区秩序应当是开放性的、包容性的,与亚洲国家多样性相适应的。在积极推动地区经济发展的基础上,逐步推进政治、安全议程。俄方学者认为,欧洲深陷金融危机,短期内不能解决,俄罗斯经济发展重心将向亚太地区转移,着力开发远东和西伯利亚地区,欢迎美国、欧洲、中国等世界各国和地区参与。中方认为,远东西伯利亚地区蕴藏着丰富的资源,并且与中国经济互补性较高,在两国政府的主导下,已经进行了一些合作。随着俄罗斯"东进"战略的逐步明确,双方可以在项目开发、投资等方面进行研究,发挥双方比较优势,深入合作。在中亚地区,美国撤出后的阿富汗将成为本地区新的安全威胁,加上原有的三股势力,中亚地区的安全形势令人担忧。俄方认为,应当发挥上海合作组织安全合作的优势,密切关注阿富汗形势,加强与印度等周边国家的合作。中方学者认为,应当发挥上合组织在安全方面的积极作用,但是解决中亚问题的根本,还在于通过经济合作使中亚国家走出贫困,从而实现长治久安。因此,应当积极推动上合组织框架下的经济合作进程,与欧亚联盟等本地区其他组织加强沟通与合作。     

MAPS OF TIME,CLOCKS OF SPACE

When Asia was conceptualized as Europe's “other,” it was also cast as a temporally delimited concept: once capitalist modernity—assumed to operate evenly across the globe by conservatives, liberals, and the left—spread to eastern Eurasia, the differences between two unequal halves of the continent were expected to evaporate. The persistence of differences long after “Asia” was incorporated into the capitalist world-economy has led to a cartographic definition of the continent. Such definitions do not allow for historical processes that reshape relations between peoples, forging new links and severing old ones. This article traces the changing imaginaries of Asia historically. Since there are no indigenous conceptions of the continent, the author argues that the changing imaginaries of Asia are linked to wider geopolitical processes. When eastern Eurasia was subordinated to the drives of the capitalist world-economy, existing linkages were severed and territories were linked to, or through, colonial metropoles. After a brief period of autarkic development after decolonization, states along the Pacific coasts were increasingly integrated through production and procurement networks leading to a new imaginary of Asia. Since the end of the cold war and the emergence of independent states with large hydrocarbon resources in Central Asia, countries that were once excluded from cold war imaginaries of Asia—as well as India—are being integrated through newer imaginaries that reflect the greater prominence of China and India today as well as the rise of Islamic militancy and new ethnic conflicts.     

大国博弈、双层均势的亚洲时刻--俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦的认知与政策立场

俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦有着独特的认知和期待,并与克里姆林宫的官方立场互为表里。总体上,俄方智库的观点是,在经贸摩擦的背后,是中美两国对军事、政治、科技、地区和全球领导权的竞争;两国的国内议程和对外政策,将因此受到深远影响并产生溢出效应--在亚洲区域内形成两极结构。即使两国会因国内和国际政治因素,在经贸问题上达成妥协,但中方不会放弃获得世界科技领导者的雄心,美方也不会打消遏制中国发展动能的战略意图。俄罗斯应与中国继续保持经济与军事合作,避免与美国和西方关系的继续恶化,并在亚太地区推动"大欧亚伙伴关系"倡议。俄罗斯政策分析界基于自身利益的演绎,将中美经贸摩擦定性为大国博弈,相应的政策建议反映出俄罗斯以在全球和亚洲分别制衡美中为目标的双层均势策略。俄罗斯将在有亚洲其他国家参与的情景下扮演战略平衡手角色,借中美全面对抗之势,在中美俄三边关系之外扭转不利的外部发展环境。俄罗斯对亚太国际局势的盘活作用,将催生双边和三边竞合新模式的建立。     

Russia's Energy Future and Northeast Asia1

Since about 2000, Russia became increasingly interested in a swift expansion of its oil and gas industry to the eastern regions, aiming primarily at the domestic development needs and new markets of Northeast Asia. Eastern Siberia and the Far Eastern areas contain up to 50 percent of Russia's estimated oil reserves. In this context, the Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean oil pipeline is attracting attention as a mega-project important not only for Russia, but also for its neighbors. This pipeline will facilitate the development of new oil fields in the remote eastern areas. There are also plans to build oil refineries connected to the pipeline, including the one planned on the Pacific coast. Indeed, Russia needs an access to the neighboring markets not only in the field of oil, but also natural gas and electricity. In this regard, long-term shared interests should drive new energy projects, and governments could greatly facilitate business interaction. Moreover, specific measures dealing with the long-term energy policies are required at the national, bilateral and regional levels, including practical and project specific initiatives tailored to the needs of the economies of Northeast Asia, considering their large markets, geography, technological potential and an interest in building institutions.     

应对挑战与积极外交:2019年俄罗斯的内外政策

普京开启总统第四任期以来,俄罗斯面临政治稳定的挑战与经济增长的压力。2019年,在政治领域,普京直面政权党"统一俄罗斯"党在2018年地方选举中受挫的现实和普京民意趋势走低的挑战,在治国理念上从官方层面倡导"普京主义",并坚决抵制西方政治干预,确保在2019年地方选举中基本完成预定目标,维持了政治稳定的局面。在经济领域,面对经济停滞不前和民生水平下滑引发民心思变的社会情绪,普京治下的俄罗斯曾寄希望于"突破性发展"战略的有效推进,但由于经济结构、投资水平、劳动力人口等因素的影响,俄罗斯的经济发展成效有限。在外交领域,着眼于国家利益,俄罗斯对外政策的主要目标依然是深化欧亚地区一体化进程,管控与西方矛盾,采取了一系列积极外交举措。2019年,中俄关系继续向好,稳中有进,中俄全面战略协作伙伴关系进入新时代。总体看,俄罗斯国家特质呈现动态均衡性的特点,但发展面临的挑战依然存在。     

Regional Stability in the Asia-Pacific: Towards a Conceptual Understanding

Abstract

This article evaluates regional stability as a concept for Asia-Pacific security analysis. Stability can be viewed as a system's tendency towards equilibrium, including its ability to find a new equilibrium in changing conditions. This approach is reflected in five types of Asia-Pacific stability - the avoidance of major war, the stability of the distribution of power, the stability of institutions and norms, political stability within countries, and economic stability. While all of these factors constitute stability in the Asia-Pacific, it is not clear that any of them constitute the stability of the Asia-Pacific region as a coherent unit of analysis.     

The political economy of economic regionalism in northeast asia: A unique and dynamic pattern

Since the mid-1980s there has been a gradual but steady rise of economic regionalism in Northeast Asia. However, the economic regionalism in Northeast Asia reveals its own dynamics and is presented in a form that is different from those in Western Europe and North America. Characterized by a “flying geese pattern” that has been developing in the region over time, the regionalism is soft and open; that is, it is uninstitutionalized and less discriminatory against other economies. This ongoing regionalism in Northeast Asia will inevitably bring profound political and economic implications for the region and beyond. Kevin G. Cai earned a Ph.D. in political science at Queen's University in Canada in 1996 Currently he is teaching at Kyonggi University in South Korea. His major research interests include the political economy of economic regionalism in the world economy, the regionalism in the Asia-Pacific area, APEC, China's integration into the regional and global economy, and various political, economic and security issues in the Asia-Pacific region. The author would like to thank Michael K. Hawes for his valuable comments on the early draft of this article.     

The Russian-U.S. Military balance in the post-cold War Asia-Pacific region and the “China Threat”

The United States and the Soviet Union/Russia have undertaken major arms reduction in the Asia-Pacific region since the late 1980s, but they have not withdrawn from the region. The United States and Russia will maintain greater military forces than any other countries in the region. China has increased its military strength steadily due to its booming economy. However, Chinese military modernization has been modest compared with other countries in the region and its rapidly growing economy. China focuses on economic development; it is not filling the “power vacuum” because there is no such vacuum left in the Asia-Pacific region.     

安全预期、经济收益与东亚安全秩序

冷战后,东亚地区不仅没有进入一个充满紧张和冲突的时期,反而维持了相对长时间的和平状态。有关东亚安全秩序的既有解释主要强调的是体系结构或过程,但不足以解释东亚安全秩序内部的动力和机制,以及这种秩序蕴含的内在不稳定性的主要原因。本文提出了一种功能论的解释,认为美国和中国分别为东亚地区提供了安全预期和经济收益两项最为重要的公共产品,是维系当前东亚安全秩序的基础。然而,在中国崛起和美国重返东亚带来的冲击下,这两种地区性公共产品的供给脱节和供给矛盾使既有东亚安全秩序面临内在的不稳定性。为了应对这种不确定性,达到稳定周边环境和缓解崛起疑虑的效果,中国在为本地区提供稳定的经济收益的同时也需要在政治和军事方面采取积极的安全保障措施,营造东亚安全秩序的新基础。     

Diego Garcia and the United States' Emerging Indian Ocean Strategy

Abstract

As the world's economic and strategic “center of gravity” shifts from the Euro-Atlantic area to the Asia-Pacific, the Indian Ocean is emerging as an increasingly critical trade and energy conduit. This region has long been a strategic backwater for the United States. Moreover, unlike in other critical subregions of Asia, the United States lacks significant host-nation bases and is unlikely to acquire them. The British territory of Diego Garcia, whose location and political reliability give it significant strategic utility, is thus central to US power projection in the Indian Ocean littoral region. The US military's approach to Diego Garcia reflects an implicit Indian Ocean strategy that seeks to establish a flexible and enduring presence within a critical and contested space. However, Washington needs to move toward an explicit Indian Ocean policy that views the region holistically rather than narrowly viewing separate US Pacific Command, US Central Command, and US Africa Command theaters.