十七世纪西伯利亚军役人员初探

西伯利亚军役人员是西伯利亚封建社会结构中的一个特殊群体，在17世纪沙皇俄国向西伯利亚侵略扩张过程中，发挥了重要作用。成为俄国殖民扩张政策的执行者、殖民统治的工具，他们在剥削和压迫当地各族人民的同时，本身也是被剥削、被压迫的对象，其性格中具有矛盾性和双重性。军役人员还积极从事殖民开发活动，在客观上对西伯利亚早期社会经济的发展起到了一定的积极作用。     

17世纪波斯亚美尼亚人跨区域贸易网络的形成、发展与地位

活跃于17世纪的亚美尼亚离散群体不仅是丝路贸易的推动者,也是东西方文化的传播者。在波斯萨法维王朝统治者支持下,以新朱尔法为中心,亚美尼亚人建立了由4条相互连接的贸易线路组成的贸易网,并在海洋经济风起云涌的大势下重现了丝路城市的辉煌。亚美尼亚人贸易繁荣的原因与该贸易离散群体之特点息息相关,长期的流亡生活培养了亚美尼亚人坚韧刻苦、勤奋务实、诚实进取的民族特性和互信、团结、互利的商业精神;制度化的管理,开放、进取的精神,以及特殊的应变力和适应力,使他们能够游走在不同信仰的帝国之间拓展市场。作为贸易离散群体,亚美尼亚人不仅改善了自身经济状况和社会地位,而且在促进东西方文化、艺术交流方面也扮演着重要角色。     

矛盾体系下的贵族领地——评《17—18世纪俄国贵族领地与农舍：共处和对立》

2005年俄罗斯科学出版社推出了由俄罗斯知名学者、史学博士IO.A.吉洪诺夫研究员著的<17-18世纪俄国贵族领地与农舍:共处和对立>一书.该书解析俄国农奴制建立和巩固时期的农村社会结构,探讨农村经济制度和社会制度,进而考究农村社会矛盾是如何动摇农奴制度的,是一部具有开拓性的史学力作.     

Negotiating Military Alliances: Legal Systems and Alliance Formation

Do domestic legal systems affect states' propensity to form military alliances? This article, building upon the existing research in international relations, adopts a socio-legal approach to understanding international treaty making. By focusing on the essence of international negotiations—communication between states' representatives—I argue that negotiating parties who share a common legal language have a common a priori understanding concerning concepts under discussion. Domestic laws operating within states impact the process of creation of international law embodied in treaties. Empirical analyses show that states with similar legal systems are more likely to form military alliances with one another. Additionally, domestic legal systems influence the way that states design their alliance commitments. In general, my findings suggest that the influence of domestic laws does not stop at “the water's edge.” It permeates the interstate borders and impacts the relations between states, especially the treaty negotiating and drafting process. International negotiators bring their legal backgrounds to the negotiating table, which influences both their willingness to sign treaties and the design of the resulting agreements.     

The "Essential Domino" of Military Operations: American Public Opinion and the Use of Force

It is a commonly held belief that the foreign policy issue to which the American public is most sensitive is the use of military force. Because American public opinion regarding the use of force is highly palpable, salient, and organized, and because decisions regarding the use of force are some of the most important decisions the nation ever has to consider, the analysis of public opinion regarding military involvement is academically significant and policy relevant. The indication from policymakers is that American military operations require public support. As a result, scholars and analysts have come to realize that public opinion is the "essential domino" of military operations. The relationship between mass American public opinion and the use of military force has become, therefore, the focus of numerous studies and surveys. There are currently several competing explanations—schools of thought—in the literature on why the mass public supports the use of force. This article is an attempt to identify the most prominent schools of thought on public opinion and the use of force, and the central factors associated with each school. Such a review is important to generating policy–relevant guidance pertaining to public opinion and the use of force—an objective made more pressing by the current war against terrorism.     

军事政变和独裁交替下的泰国民主化道路——泰国民主化的特征与未来

比其他亚洲国家起步早的泰国民主化道路走得并不平坦,军事政变和政治独裁的交替似乎成为了近70多年来泰国政治的主线。这种奇特的政治现象和泰国的政治文化、宗教意识、教育水平、社会结构等因素密切联系在一起。最初由精英发起的泰国民主化运动,如果得不到整个国民的回应,没有获得成熟市民社会的支持,真正的民主主义也就不可能在泰国扎根。     

Class conflict,state terrorism and the Pakistani military: the Okara Military Farms dispute

In their dispute with their tenants, in what is known as the Okara Military Farms dispute, army landlords in the Punjab province of Pakistan resorted to state terrorism conducted by paramilitary troops, in alliance with other state agencies, in an unsuccessful attempt to break farmer resistance to attempts to remove their security of tenure. Analysis of the dispute provides strong support for the argument that state violence can, in some instances, be categorised as a specific form of terrorism. The article, therefore, aims to contribute to the growing literature on state terrorism which has been neglected as a legitimate and important topic for scholarly inquiry.     

The Fog of Negotiation: What Negotiators Can Learn from Military Doctrine

On the surface, warfare and negotiation may seem to be polar opposites. The objective in war is to defeat the enemy. In negotiation, the goal is to find a solution that satisfies all the parties. Not surprisingly, little cross‐learning and exchange has occurred across the two domains. In spite of important differences, however, the dynamics of war and negotiation have much in common. Specifically, both involve the interaction of motivated agents with distinct interests, perceptions, and values (especially in high‐stakes contexts). As a result, robust strategy, creativity, and nimble tactics are essential both on the battlefield and at the bargaining table. Just as negotiation theory could be enriched by principles of maneuver warfare, military doctrine offers officers and soldiers a potentially useful foundation to better understand and manage the negotiation process, especially in complex, cross‐cultural contexts.     

民主的倒退与民主的尴尬：泰国政变的合法性分析

2006年9月,泰国军队发动政变推翻了他信看守内阁,接管了国家权力。这次政变的爆发,与他信政府在利益、道德等方面发生一定程度的合法性危机有关,也与泰国民主发展不完善,即民主的尴尬有关。军事政变一方面作为结束遭遇合法性问题的统治者的手段具有一定的合理性,但另一方面它严重影响了泰国的民主化进程。完善的民主制度是解决政治纷争的有效方法,只有它才能为政治体系提供长久的合法性基础。     

Beyond the Target State: Foreign Military Intervention and Neighboring State Stability

Despite the abundance of research on the consequences of foreign military intervention for target countries, scant research has been devoted to the possible regional externalities of intervention. This article examines whether large-scale armed operations affect the likelihood of civil conflict onset in countries neighboring the target of intervention. We posit that interventions against the target regime reduce the government's ability to maintain full control over the entire national territory by diminishing its coercive and administrative capacity. This might, in turn, result in safe haven possibilities for neighboring rival groups in the target and facilitate the transnational spread of arms and other illicit activities that increase the risk of civil conflict onset in the contiguous countries. Armed interventions supportive or neutral toward the target state, on the other hand, bolster the government's coercive capacity and mitigate ongoing crises in the target. Such armed intrusions might therefore undermine the likelihood of internal armed conflict in neighboring countries triggered by the factors associated with “bad neighborhoods”: safe haven possibilities, transnational spread of arms, and refugee flows. To substantiate these claims, we use time-series, cross-national data for the 1951–2004 period. Results indicate that hostile interventions increase the probability of civil conflict onset in connected countries while supportive interventions have a regional pacifying effect, reducing the likelihood of domestic unrest in countries neighboring the target state. Neutral interventions, on the other hand, are unlikely to have any discernible effect on regional stability. Further, the primary motive of intervention, whether for humanitarian or other purposes, has no statistically significant impact on the stability of neighboring countries.     

The evolution of power,threat, and security: Past and potential developments

This paper describes the development of the international military situation over the past three decades and explores the potential for its transformation under different assumptions regarding economic conditions and the character of international relations. Using newly derived indices in the conventional military area, an assessment is made of the shifting tides in the power, threat and security situation that has confronted twenty‐five important states in the international system during the recent past. The past is then contrasted with some possible alternative developments. These developments are assayed using a global simulation model, GLOBUS, developed at the Science Center Berlin.     

唤醒沉睡的马中关系（1970—1974年）：马中建交前马来西亚华人在社会与文化互动中的角色

本文借助多种资料与文献,分析了1970年到1974年间以李引桐和曾永森为代表的几位马来西亚华人以及一些马来西亚华人团体和个人的活动,试图探讨马来西亚华人怎样通过社会文化互动来促成马中建交。因此可见民间渠道或跨国社会文化互动与官方渠道是相辅相成的。社会和文化互动不仅唤醒了沉睡已久的马中关系,最后还迎来了两国政府和人民的双赢局面。