十七世纪西伯利亚军役人员初探

西伯利亚军役人员是西伯利亚封建社会结构中的一个特殊群体，在17世纪沙皇俄国向西伯利亚侵略扩张过程中，发挥了重要作用。成为俄国殖民扩张政策的执行者、殖民统治的工具，他们在剥削和压迫当地各族人民的同时，本身也是被剥削、被压迫的对象，其性格中具有矛盾性和双重性。军役人员还积极从事殖民开发活动，在客观上对西伯利亚早期社会经济的发展起到了一定的积极作用。     

17世纪波斯亚美尼亚人跨区域贸易网络的形成、发展与地位

活跃于17世纪的亚美尼亚离散群体不仅是丝路贸易的推动者,也是东西方文化的传播者。在波斯萨法维王朝统治者支持下,以新朱尔法为中心,亚美尼亚人建立了由4条相互连接的贸易线路组成的贸易网,并在海洋经济风起云涌的大势下重现了丝路城市的辉煌。亚美尼亚人贸易繁荣的原因与该贸易离散群体之特点息息相关,长期的流亡生活培养了亚美尼亚人坚韧刻苦、勤奋务实、诚实进取的民族特性和互信、团结、互利的商业精神;制度化的管理,开放、进取的精神,以及特殊的应变力和适应力,使他们能够游走在不同信仰的帝国之间拓展市场。作为贸易离散群体,亚美尼亚人不仅改善了自身经济状况和社会地位,而且在促进东西方文化、艺术交流方面也扮演着重要角色。     

矛盾体系下的贵族领地——评《17—18世纪俄国贵族领地与农舍：共处和对立》

2005年俄罗斯科学出版社推出了由俄罗斯知名学者、史学博士IO.A.吉洪诺夫研究员著的<17-18世纪俄国贵族领地与农舍:共处和对立>一书.该书解析俄国农奴制建立和巩固时期的农村社会结构,探讨农村经济制度和社会制度,进而考究农村社会矛盾是如何动摇农奴制度的,是一部具有开拓性的史学力作.     

Negotiating Military Alliances: Legal Systems and Alliance Formation

Do domestic legal systems affect states' propensity to form military alliances? This article, building upon the existing research in international relations, adopts a socio-legal approach to understanding international treaty making. By focusing on the essence of international negotiations—communication between states' representatives—I argue that negotiating parties who share a common legal language have a common a priori understanding concerning concepts under discussion. Domestic laws operating within states impact the process of creation of international law embodied in treaties. Empirical analyses show that states with similar legal systems are more likely to form military alliances with one another. Additionally, domestic legal systems influence the way that states design their alliance commitments. In general, my findings suggest that the influence of domestic laws does not stop at “the water's edge.” It permeates the interstate borders and impacts the relations between states, especially the treaty negotiating and drafting process. International negotiators bring their legal backgrounds to the negotiating table, which influences both their willingness to sign treaties and the design of the resulting agreements.     

Military Structure,Civil Disobedience,and Military Violence

In this article, I argue that factors inherent to the structure of a military organization and their relationship with the political leadership play a role in the organization's tendency to perpetrate violence against civilians during civil disobedience campaigns. To examine this hypothesis, I conducted a three-phased statistical analysis on a database containing 97 campaigns that took place between 1972 and 2012. In the first phase, I examined the relationship between military centric factors and violent crackdowns. In the second phase, I examined the relationship between military centric factors and mass killing. In the third stage, I examined the relationship between two specific types of discrimination in the military and mass killing. I found strong evidence supporting the hypothesis mentioned above. High-risk militaries that served a militarized regime, contained loosely regulated or indoctrinated paramilitaries, and discriminated against the protesting group, were much more likely to perpetrate violence against civilians during civil disobedience campaigns than low-risk militaries. The conclusions of this study suggest that further examination of the military's role in perpetrating violence against civilians during protests and conflict may provide some novel findings.     

Borrowing Trouble: Sovereign Credit,Military Regimes,and Conflict

Changes in relative military power in the international system are seen as an impediment to peace. This article will focus on one particular avenue for states to increase their relative military power: sovereign borrowing. States’ ability to borrow inexpensive credit can undermine credible commitments in international relations, but only for those states that habitually use credit for military purposes. I argue that military regimes are more likely to use fiscal resources such as sovereign credit toward military spending, which leads to sudden increases in military power. As a result, adversarial states have incentives to use preventive action against military regimes before these regimes use credit for military purposes. To test this argument, I examine target behavior in militarized disputes as a function of expected borrowing costs credit and regime type. The empirical analysis demonstrates that military regimes, expected to have improved borrowing costs, are more likely to be the target of militarized disputes.     

The "Essential Domino" of Military Operations: American Public Opinion and the Use of Force

It is a commonly held belief that the foreign policy issue to which the American public is most sensitive is the use of military force. Because American public opinion regarding the use of force is highly palpable, salient, and organized, and because decisions regarding the use of force are some of the most important decisions the nation ever has to consider, the analysis of public opinion regarding military involvement is academically significant and policy relevant. The indication from policymakers is that American military operations require public support. As a result, scholars and analysts have come to realize that public opinion is the "essential domino" of military operations. The relationship between mass American public opinion and the use of military force has become, therefore, the focus of numerous studies and surveys. There are currently several competing explanations—schools of thought—in the literature on why the mass public supports the use of force. This article is an attempt to identify the most prominent schools of thought on public opinion and the use of force, and the central factors associated with each school. Such a review is important to generating policy–relevant guidance pertaining to public opinion and the use of force—an objective made more pressing by the current war against terrorism.     

International Conflict,International Security Environment,and Military Coups

Why do some countries repeatedly experience military coups while others seem immune? Are countries more prone to military coups when faced with external threats? The answers to these questions still remain contested: While several scholars hold that countries facing external threats are more vulnerable to coups, others argue that such countries are actually more secure from coups. I argue that by failing to distinguish between immediate and acute threats, caused by wars and militarized conflicts, and chronic threats from a state’s international security environment, the existing literature ignores the possibility that these two types of external threats differently affect the likelihood of coups. I propose that wars and militarized conflicts, infrequent and often short lived, decrease coup propensity, while a threatening security environment increases coup risk. I find strong supporting evidence that the presence of chronic international threats increases the likelihood of coups while acute international conflicts lower that likelihood.     

军事政变和独裁交替下的泰国民主化道路——泰国民主化的特征与未来

比其他亚洲国家起步早的泰国民主化道路走得并不平坦,军事政变和政治独裁的交替似乎成为了近70多年来泰国政治的主线。这种奇特的政治现象和泰国的政治文化、宗教意识、教育水平、社会结构等因素密切联系在一起。最初由精英发起的泰国民主化运动,如果得不到整个国民的回应,没有获得成熟市民社会的支持,真正的民主主义也就不可能在泰国扎根。     

Military extrication and temporary democracy: the case of Pakistan

Pakistan's 1988 transition to democracy defies most of the conventional wisdom on democratization as well as the bulk of the literature on democratic transitions. This peculiar case can be understood as a case of ‘temporary democracy’, in which democracy emerges as a short-term outcome that is not likely to be sustained. Pakistan's military leaders chose to democratize because of the high short-term costs of repression coupled with the low long-term costs of allowing democracy. The authoritarian elite agreed to allow democratization knowing that the prospects of democratic consolidation were dim. In this sense, the same factors that made the consolidation of Pakistan's democracy unlikely made the transition possible.     

Class conflict,state terrorism and the Pakistani military: the Okara Military Farms dispute

In their dispute with their tenants, in what is known as the Okara Military Farms dispute, army landlords in the Punjab province of Pakistan resorted to state terrorism conducted by paramilitary troops, in alliance with other state agencies, in an unsuccessful attempt to break farmer resistance to attempts to remove their security of tenure. Analysis of the dispute provides strong support for the argument that state violence can, in some instances, be categorised as a specific form of terrorism. The article, therefore, aims to contribute to the growing literature on state terrorism which has been neglected as a legitimate and important topic for scholarly inquiry.     

Numerous,Capable, and Well-Funded Rebels: Insurgent Military Effectiveness and Deadly Attacks in Afghanistan

Why do some of Afghanistan's provinces experience more deadly attacks on counterinsurgents than others? We argue that provinces with more militarily effective insurgents will be deadlier for the forces of the counterinsurgency. We posit that insurgent military effectiveness is an interactive function of the rebel group's size, the quality of its recruits, and the group's operational budget. More militarily effective insurgents should, in turn, produce more deadly violence against Coalition forces. We model this relationship at the provincial level in Afghanistan using negative binomial regressions. Ultimately, we find that in provinces where the insurgency is more militarily effective, deadly attacks against counterinsurgent forces occur more often. Based on this finding, we conclude with directions for future research and policy recommendations for both the current operations in Afghanistan and for future counterinsurgency campaigns.     

特朗普政府初期美国军方管控气候风险及其行为逻辑

奥巴马政府时期,美国国家安全界对气候变化形成比较统一的认识,即气候变化对美国国家安全构成潜在威胁。与这种认知形成、加深相伴随的是,美国的国家安全体系逐渐开始将气候变化因素纳入其战略规划与日常实践。特朗普执政后,美国安全政策中的气候因素不仅没有淡化或终结,相反,在某些方面或在某种程度上还有强化的迹象。但是,这种强化趋势却出现了新的变化,并通过以下两种方式突显出来：第一,军方对气候变化的侧重点从长期威胁转向近期威胁、从间接威胁转向直接威胁、从全球性灾难转向特定灾害。第二,军方应对气候变化的手段从减排和适应并重转向侧重适应。支撑上述变化的不仅是基于现实的安全利益考量,也是美国决策者内部的矛盾及调和使然。未来,预计美国军方的气候政策进程仍将持续,但是,美国军方的气候政策是否会产生“外溢效应”,进而向上传递到联邦政府决策,仍旧取决于政府与国会之间的博弈。