A Unified Method for Dynamic and Cross‐Sectional Heterogeneity: Introducing Hidden Markov Panel Models

Conventional statistical methods for panel data are based on the assumption that unobserved heterogeneity is time constant. Despite the central importance of this assumption for panel data methods, few studies have developed statistical methods for testing this assumption and modeling time‐varying unobserved heterogeneity. In this article, I introduce a formal test to check the assumption of time‐constant unobserved heterogeneity using Bayesian model comparison. Then, I present two panel data methods that account for time‐varying unobserved heterogeneity in the context of the random‐effects model and the fixed‐effects model, respectively. I illustrate the utility of the introduced methods using both simulated data and examples drawn from two important debates in the political economy literature: (1) the identification of shifting relationships between income inequality and economic development in capitalist countries and (2) the effects of the GATT/WTO on bilateral trade volumes.     

What to Do about Missing Values in Time‐Series Cross‐Section Data

Applications of modern methods for analyzing data with missing values, based primarily on multiple imputation, have in the last half‐decade become common in American politics and political behavior. Scholars in this subset of political science have thus increasingly avoided the biases and inefficiencies caused by ad hoc methods like listwise deletion and best guess imputation. However, researchers in much of comparative politics and international relations, and others with similar data, have been unable to do the same because the best available imputation methods work poorly with the time‐series cross‐section data structures common in these fields. We attempt to rectify this situation with three related developments. First, we build a multiple imputation model that allows smooth time trends, shifts across cross‐sectional units, and correlations over time and space, resulting in far more accurate imputations. Second, we enable analysts to incorporate knowledge from area studies experts via priors on individual missing cell values, rather than on difficult‐to‐interpret model parameters. Third, because these tasks could not be accomplished within existing imputation algorithms, in that they cannot handle as many variables as needed even in the simpler cross‐sectional data for which they were designed, we also develop a new algorithm that substantially expands the range of computationally feasible data types and sizes for which multiple imputation can be used. These developments also make it possible to implement the methods introduced here in freely available open source software that is considerably more reliable than existing algorithms.     

协商治理:村民自治有效实现的路径选择

以民主选举为重心的村民自治面临三个问题:一是村民自治从参与到选举的扭曲,村民自治变成村官自治,民主的本质被掏空;二是精英牟利和民众权益被损害,村民自治维护农村社会稳定的目标遭破坏;三是以民主选举为重心带来精英主政以及"封闭式决策",造成村级决策的合法性脆弱。以协商治理为重心的村民自治的比较优势在于:一是以协商治理为重心更能体现村民自治的民主本质;二是协商治理更能促进村民自治中村级公共事务决策的合法性;三是以协商治理为重心的村民自治提升民众的政治效能感,有助于维护农村社会的稳定。因此,一是要搭建日常协商治理的平台和载体,二是要加强农村协商治理的程序化、制度化建设,三是要提升民众的协商治理意识和能力。唯其如此,才能促进村民自治的有效实现。     

A Principles‐based Approach to the Barnett Formula1

This essay argues that the Barnett formula—which determines the block grant paid annually by the UK government to each of the Devolved Administrations of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland—be reformulated, guided by the following principles: fiscal equity, accountability, transparency, and flexibility. The rationale for change is that the current fiscal arrangements make little policy sense and may not be sustainable in a changing political and economic context. The formation of a grants commission to help develop data, calculate disparities, and provide public advice to the Chancellor of the Exchequer is also advocated.     

Performance Indicators in Academia: An X‐Efficiency Approach?

This article utilises three different perspectives to evaluate the uses of performance indicators in Australian higher education: federalism, neoclassical economics and X-efficiency theory. The introduction of performance indicators by the Commonwealth government is associated with providing the most efficient path for the allocation and distribution of scarce resources in higher education (neoclassical economics), increasing its control over the universities (federalism theory), and applying pressure to them and in turn their academic members to increase their effort levels (X-efficiency theory). X-efficiency theory is proposed as a possible model to support and inform efforts to better understand and improve the operation of performance indicators.     

Cross‐Sector Transfer of Consolidated Financial Reporting – Conceptual Concerns

This article addresses a major concern about the use of particular accounting concepts, notably those of control and assets, for whole‐of‐government consolidated financial reporting. While whole‐of‐government consolidated financial reports may resemble the formats required by accounting standards and so provide a benchmark for comparative purposes, inherent weakness in the specification of underpinning concepts means that proper and full application of the consolidation methodology cannot be assumed. A study of the whole‐of‐government consolidated financial reports of the Commonwealth, state and territory governments of Australia revealed that significant assets, obligations and controlled entities have not been included.     

Working the Spaces in between: A Case Study of a Boundary‐Spanning Model to Help Facilitate Cross‐Sectoral Policy Work

Since the 1990s, ‘joined‐up government,’ ‘whole‐of‐government,’ and ‘horizontal governance’ approaches have emerged in many industrialized countries, resulting in the devolution of government functions to diverse policy networks. From these shifts, complex systems of networked actors have emerged, involved in designing, implementation, and influencing policy. Arguably, networked approaches to policy may solve some problems. However, as with all paradigm shifts, new problems have emerged. Specifically, skill and knowledge gaps have opened up, reflecting the need for new collaborative and networked relationships that can increase the capabilities and agility to work in these ways. In response to these gaps, we developed the Power to Persuade initiative. Power to Persuade is an annual symposium and online forum, aimed at deepening knowledge and awareness of current problems faced by policy networks, and providing the skills and knowledge to overcome them. In this paper, we discuss how Power to Persuade works within the spaces in between as a vehicle for relationship building and better policy.     

Norwegian Local Councils as Democratic Meta‐governors? A Study of Networks Established to Manage Cross‐border Natural Resources

Focusing on democracy, the question raised in this article is whether it is possible for local councils to play a role as democratic meta-governors in situations with cross-border conflicts over interests. According to the authors' definition, democratic meta-governance implies that the local councils assure that all interests are taken into account in governing networks. The analysis is based on data from extensive studies of two Norwegian networks dealing with cross-border natural resources. Not surprisingly, the authors' answer is rather negative. Based on analysis of who actually participates in the networks and the way the involved local councils deal with the question of democracy, this may be explained by the fact that each local council represents a specific defend interest held by the majority in their constituency. Instead of opening up and allowing the required participation, which may give the networks the legitimacy they need, the local councils are closing the networks in order to better get their interests heard. It should therefore be considered whether responsibility for securing democracy in the management of cross-border natural resources should be given to a regional or national authority, above the level of local government.     

Designing and Implementing Cross‐Sector Collaborations: Needed and Challenging

Theoretical and empirical work on collaboration has proliferated in the last decade. The authors’ 2006 article on designing and implementing cross‐sector collaborations was a part of, and helped stimulate, this growth. This article reviews the authors’ and others’ important theoretical frameworks from the last decade, along with key empirical results. Research indicates how complicated and challenging collaboration can be, even though it may be needed now more than ever. The article concludes with a summary of areas in which scholarship offers reasonably settled conclusions and an extensive list of recommendations for future research. The authors favor research that takes a dynamic, multilevel systems view and makes use of both quantitative and qualitative methods, especially using longitudinal comparative case studies.     

The tie that divides: Cross‐national evidence of the primacy of partyism

Using evidence from Great Britain, the United States, Belgium and Spain, it is demonstrated in this article that in integrated and divided nations alike, citizens are more strongly attached to political parties than to the social groups that the parties represent. In all four nations, partisans discriminate against their opponents to a degree that exceeds discrimination against members of religious, linguistic, ethnic or regional out‐groups. This pattern holds even when social cleavages are intense and the basis for prolonged political conflict. Partisan animus is conditioned by ideological proximity; partisans are more distrusting of parties furthest from them in the ideological space. The effects of partisanship on trust are eroded when partisan and social ties collide. In closing, the article considers the reasons that give rise to the strength of ‘partyism’ in modern democracies.     

From Multiculturalism to Cultural Voluntarism: A Family‐based Approach

In the context of the current debate on multiculturalism, this article draws on three models of state policies towards families to propose a reframing of multiculturalist policies. They are the ‘authorisation’ model, wherein the state authorises families to define and enforce family obligations as law; the ‘delegation’ model, wherein the state prescribes the norms families are to follow and delegates to families the role of enforcing them; and the ‘purposive abstention’ model, wherein the state uses the voluntary performance family norms as a tool of policy, giving them limited legal recognition within the continued application of the general law. The article considers how these models might guide policy towards communities, which can be seen, substantially, as collections of families. It favours the ‘purposive abstention’ model, which, in the context of cultural groups, could be termed ‘cultural voluntarism’.     

Assessing Public Procurement of Innovation as a Cross‐Domain Policy: A Framework and Application to the Chinese Context

Despite the fact that public procurement of innovation (PPI) has become an increasingly popular policy tool, there has been a lack of holistic approaches to assessing policies promoting PPI. This article attempts to address this gap by proposing a framework which links the multiple levels and aspects related to the design and implementation of PPI policies. By adopting a systemic understanding of “public procurement” as well as “innovation policies,” this article positions PPI as a cross‐domain policy which is inherently a mix of procurement and innovation‐related interventions. The article develops an assessment framework using “vertical coherence” and “horizontal coherence” as criteria. It then illustrates the use of the framework by applying it to PPI policies in China. The framework can aid the conduct of ex ante as well as ex post assessment of PPI policies, which can further inform policy design, implementation, and learning.     

环境影响评价制度初探

环境影响评价是一种“预防为主”体现了可持续发展理念的环境管理制度,在不同国家它有广义和狭义之分。环境影响评价的特点是具有预测性、客观性、专业性、可行性和强制性。环境影响评价制度可实现经济、社会和环境的协调发展,体现了可持续发展的模式的基本精神;贯彻了环境法中的“预防为主”的基本原则;改变了传统的不科学的行政决策、方法和程序,有助于改进和提高行政决策的质量;有利于提高公众的环境意识,为公众基本环境保护提供了可靠的途径。     

An Approach to Measuring the Affordability of State Debt

Affordability is one important and widely accepted element of state and local debt policy. However, there is no well-established measure of affordability and no clear standard for making normative judgments about what amount of debt is affordable for a specific jurisdiction. This article suggests a six-step method for measuring affordability of state debt that provides a useful guideline for determining when a state may be entering a "danger zone" by having debt that exceeds norms of affordability.     

Questioning Kaufman: How Cross‐Level Political Coalitions Interact with Organizational Structure

Herbert Kaufman's The Forest Ranger is considered a landmark study of how organizations can be structured to elicit compliance from field officials, yet there have been few attempts to validate Kaufman's claims. The author argues that the outcomes observed by Kaufman resulted from interplay between organizational structure and political context—a variable that Kaufman ignored. This argument is supported by case studies of two agencies with structures similar to Kaufman's U.S. Forest Service but poorer outcomes: the same agency today and India's forest departments. Both differences in organizational structure and poorer outcomes are found to be the result of political context. Specifically, coalitions assembled around agencies use the implementation process to shape outcomes in ways that could not be accomplished solely through changing laws or formal administrative structure. This points to the importance of building supportive field‐level coalitions to complement administrative reforms.     

Public Financial Management Systems and Countries' Governance: A Cross‐Country Study

The objective of this study is to explore whether a relationship exists between public financial management (PFM) systems and expert perceptions of countries' governance in an international cross‐country study. We examine the extent to which variations in accounting, budgeting and auditing practices are associated with governance in a sample of 97 countries that represent different levels of development, analysing the differences between countries classified into factor, efficiency and innovation‐driven economies. Our concept of governance perception includes three dimensions: accountability, government effectiveness and corruption. We find that countries with a higher level of economic development show, on average, more sophisticated PFM systems characterized by the presentation of accrual‐based financial statements, the application of value for money audits and higher budget transparency. When analysing the sub‐samples of countries according to the level of economic development, we find that countries with similar governance perception scores show different patterns of PFM practices, suggesting that there is no one‐size‐fits‐all approach. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.