德国外交的新大西洋主义取向浅析

近来 ,围绕伊拉克战争中的德美分歧 ,德国外交界进行了深刻反思 ,在其政策讨论中曾出现三种意见。一是新大西洋主义的“合作性对峙” ,有条件地调整对美政策 ,以“使美国修正其路线”。二是受戴高乐主义影响的“均衡对峙” ,包括建立法德俄轴心 ,限制美国的单边影响。三是紧密跟随美国的“老大西洋主义”路线 ,并伺机施加影响。经过权衡 ,德国政府认为应发展新的大西洋伙伴关系。 11月外长菲舍尔和总理施罗德相继访美 ,努力作出与美和解的姿态 ,德国外交“新大西洋主义”取向日趋明显。战后 ,德国外交政策长期奉行大西洋主义 ,与美国关系密…     

An Italian Foreign Policy of Religious Engagement: Challenges and Prospects

A new awareness of the role of religion in international relations has started to inform concrete policy discussions in several Western Ministries of Foreign Affairs under the heading of ‘religious engagement’ in foreign policy. Italy is no exception, but as the country which hosts the Holy See, it represents a special case. As the approach to religion found in the historical record of Italian foreign policy shows, Italy has a comparative advantage and could well develop a unique model of religious engagement by strengthening the central structures involved in religious matters and foreign policy, as well as by using the vast network of Rome-based religious non-state actors as a forum of consultation and policy advice.     

EU Foreign Policy in the Italian Parliament: The Debates on China and Iran

Governments have always been more reluctant to accept parliamentary oversight in foreign policy than in any other domestic policy field. This examination of the recent performance of the Italian Parliament in Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) scrutiny and control in the two case studies of the EU's arms embargo against China and negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program shows that institutional arrangements concerning parliamentary control in this field have significant shortcomings. Although limited, the reforms under discussion in the new intergovernmental conference could contribute to improving the performance of parliaments and to creating a common awareness of the problem of democratic deficit in CFSP among the parliamentarians of EU member states.     

Tau-b or Not Tau-b: Measuring the Similarity of Foreign Policy Positions

The pattern of alliances among states is commonly assumed to reflect theextent to which states have common or conflicting security interests. For the past twenty years, Kendall's τ b has been used to measure the similarity of nations' "portfolios" of alliance commitments. Widely employed indicators of systemic polarity, state utility, and state risk propensity all rely on τ b . We demonstrate that τ b is inappropriate for measuring the similarity of states' alliance policies. We develop an alternative measure of policy portfolio similarity, S , which avoids many of the problems associated with τ b , and we use data on alliances among European states to compare S to τ b . Finally, we identify several problems with inferring state interests from alliances alone, and we provide a method to overcome those problems using S in combination with data on alliances, trade, UN votes, diplomatic missions, and other types of state interaction. We demonstrate this by comparing the calculated similarity of foreign policy positions based solely on alliance data to that based on alliance data supplemented with UN voting data.     

Setting a Course: Congressional Foreign Policy Entrepreneurs In Post-World War II U.S. Foreign Policy

"Congressional foreign policy entrepreneurs" are those legislators who initiate their own foreign policy agendas. These individuals seek to frame policy discussions and mobilize public and interest group interest; to direct congressional agendas toward specific foreign policy issues; to structure and influence the formulation of foreign policies by the executive branch; to revise, refocus, or reformulate foreign policies; to generate alternative and replacement foreign policies; and to fill policy vacuums with their own preferred foreign policies. This paper examines the evolution and impact of such entrepreneurs across the periods of the Cold War Consensus (1946–1967), the Cold War Dissensus (1968–1989), and the Post-Cold War (1990–2000). The paper first provides an overview of the concept of foreign policy entrepreneurs. It then turns to case studies of entrepreneurial initiatives from three prolific entrepreneurs whose careers span the post-World War II era: Senators Jacob Javits, Edward Kennedy, and Christopher Dodd. Together, the overview and cases shed light on the different avenues and activities that entrepreneurs use to address their preferred issues and the impact entrepreneurs have on policy, as well as highlight changes in both over time.     

以色列对外政策趋向及其后果

2010年5月,以色列拦截国际人道主义救援船队事件,印证了以色列政府在涉及自身安全问题上的一贯强硬和一意孤行,既折射出其面临的安全和外交困境,也反映了以色列继续奉行以"安全至上"为基本原则的国家安全战略.袭船事件持续"发酵",牵动中东地区和国际社会相关角色的"神经",势必对以安全环境及地区局势产生深远影响.     

试论奥巴马外交的得与失

奥巴马上台后推出的外交新政,经过一年的扩充与演化,基本上形成了一套比较完整的外交思想与政策。其主要特点是在坚持美国世界领导地位的前提下,以谋求多边合作为基调,以运用巧实力为基础,以柔性务实策略为基本手段。检点一年来的实践,奥巴马外交在一定程度上改善了美国的国际形象与对外关系,但由于其未能跳出美国独家支配的全球战略框架,成效和作用有限。     

2010年俄罗斯对外政策：进展与问题

2010年俄罗斯在外交领域获得诸多重大突破：奥巴马政府在对外政策中大国合作理念在俄美关系中明显体现;俄罗斯与欧盟的现代化伙伴关系倡议进入实施阶段;中俄战略协作伙伴关系向深度和广度拓展;俄罗斯利用金融危机重掌独联体地区的主导权。尽管俄罗斯外交2010年取得了近些年来最为显著的成果,但是俄美关系的结构性矛盾并未消除,俄欧现代化伙伴关系的前景仍充满变数,中俄战略协作伙伴关系仍有亟待解决的问题,北约对独联体地区的政治与军事渗透也并未停止。     

The Origins of Atlanticism in Central and Eastern Europe

This article argues that the Atlanticism of Central and Eastern Europe originates in a specific set of historical experiences these countries have had with the United States over the past century. These include the Central and East European encounter with both Nazi and communist totalitarian regimes; a recognition of the leading role the US played in toppling communism and in facilitating the integration of these countries into Euro-Atlantic institutions; and the strategic calculation of many countries in the region that their national interests in Europe are better preserved via active American engagement that balances the influence of other major European powers.     

Religion as a Factor in Ethnic Conflict: Kashmir and Indian Foreign Policy

ABSTRACT

Ethnic conflicts with a strong religious component do not have merely domestic or foreign causes and consequences. As a result, internationalization of ethnic conflict has become an important subject of inquiry both in terms of pure research and policy-oriented studies. This article presents a case study of Indian-Pakistani relations over Kashmir, used to evaluate the role of religion and the explanatory power of the approach presented here. The aim of the study is to apply a foreign policy approach that simultaneously incorporates domestic and external factors in an analysis of how and in what ways religious elements of the Kashmir question affect India's foreign policy. The approach, an application of “systemism,” contributes to current developments in the realist school of international relations through its emphasis on the need to look at both international and state levels in combination. Earlier applications of realism, as both neotraditional and structural realism clearly demonstrate, tend to remain restricted to one level or the other. In this approach, a religious dynamic can have a domestic source yet be effectively examined in terms of international ramifications.     

日本民主党外交政策调整的动因及其展望

民主党执政一年来,前后两任首相所推行的外交政策调整幅度甚大.究其原因,首先是缘于美国在基地问题上施加的强大压力;同时,也凸显了日本精英层固有的战略思维的局限性,其舆论导向促成了民主党外交政策的急转弯;再次,它是民主党更新外交安保团队的结果.日本学者将这一现象称之为民主党的自民党化.日本外交政策出现的失衡局面,势将损害日本的根本利益,导致日本政坛开始新一轮的动荡.     

Public Opinion and Foreign Policy: Elite Beliefs as a Mediating Variable

Scholars have become increasingly interested in the nature of potential linkage processes between public opinion and foreign policy. The literature on elite beliefs suggests that the beliefs decision makers hold concerning public opinion may have an important influence on this relationship. This article argues that how decision makers perceive and react to public opinion depends upon their views of the proper relationship between public opinion and foreign policy choices. A theoretical framework to analyze beliefs is suggested containing two dimensions: (1) normative beliefs relating to whether it is desirable for input from public opinion to affect foreign policy choices; and (2) practical beliefs regarding whether public support of a policy is necessary for it to be successful. To explore this issue, this article reports the findings of a qualitative content analysis of Dwight D. Eisenhower's and John Foster Dulles's public opinion beliefs. Predictions of behavior are tested in a case study of the September 1954 Chinese offshore islands crisis. The results of this analysis suggest elite beliefs regarding public opinion may provide an important intervening variable worthy of further examination.     

The Potential and Pitfalls of a Zero-Sum Grand Strategy

Grand strategy provides the strategic vision for a state in pursuit of its national interests. The current U.S. grand strategy straddles the line between isolationism and off-shore balancing. Based on the international relations theory of realism, these strategies view international actions as a zero-sum game. In other words, a country can only benefit at the expense of another. The zero-sum logic is clearly articulated in the “America First” strategic documents. It is also apparent in many of the president's speeches and policy actions. While the Trump administration's zero-sum approach has potential to rebalance burdens and level the playing field in such areas of trade, it is fraught with risks and jeopardizes the standing of the United States in the world.