美国新战略下阿富汗安全形势及其对中国西部边境安全的影响

2009年3月,美国总统奥巴马宣布了新的“阿富汗和巴基斯坦战略”,该战略有两个显著特点,一个特点是将巴基斯坦因素纳入到新战略框架中,另一特点是大量增兵阿富汗。阿富汗与中国相邻,其国内安全形势对中国西部边境地区的安全有着重要影响。     

Social Network Analysis of German Foreign Fighters in Syria and Iraq

ABSTRACT

Why do Westerners become foreign fighters in civil conflicts? We explore this question through original data collection on German foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq, and test three sets of hypotheses that revolve around socioeconomic integration, online radicalization, and social network mobilization. We conduct link analysis to map the network of German foreign fighters prior to their mobilization, and marshal evidence to assess the validity of competing explanations. We find only modest support for the integration deficit hypothesis, and meager support for the social media radicalization theory. Instead, the preponderance of evidence suggests that interpersonal ties largely drive the German foreign fighter phenomenon. Recruitment featured clustered mobilization and bloc recruitment within interconnected radical milieus, leading us to conclude that peer-to-peer networks are the most important mobilization factor for German foreign fighters.     

Modern Mass Media and Traditional Communication in Afghanistan

This article explores the bipolar structure of communication in Afghanistan, where the latest technological advancements in media coexist with a complex system of traditional communication. After 22 years of civil war and the destruction of most modern media facilities, Afghanistan's traditional channels of communication have become even more significant. This article examines the history of the press in Afghan politics and society and asks what roles modern and traditional communication systems and values may play in the future.     

On the Trail of the ‘Lions of Islam’: Foreign Fighters in Afghanistan and Pakistan, 1980-2010

This article provides a review of the history of jihadi foreign fighters in Afghanistan over the last 30 years. It details the post-9/11 period and the invasion of Afghanistan by U.S. forces, focusing on the ethnic origin of the foreign fighters and how different groups engaged in different aspects of the conflict. Additionally, the piece explains that while the foreign fighters who came to fight alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan included, among others, Uzbekistanis (not Afghan Uzbeks), Turks, and Arabs, there was also a significant force of Pakistanis—of both Pashtun and Punjabi origins—that joined, bolstering the Taliban army.     

阿富汗变局后的中亚安全:大国博弈与地区合作

阿富汗与中亚有着非常密切的历史文化联系,同时阿富汗问题对中亚安全构成了直接威胁.随着2021年美国仓促撤军、塔利班重新夺取政权,中亚战略地位的特殊性引发大国为争夺地区安全和经济主导权展开新一轮地缘政治竞争,中亚地区的和平与稳定又遭遇新的挑战.本文通过对新形势下中亚地区安全的新特征、新变化的梳理和分析,发现阿富汗变局后中...     

Boomerangs and Superpowers: International Norms,Transnational Networks and US Foreign Policy

The complex relationship between international norms and transational networks of non-state actors is gaining increasing attention in international relations theory. This paper argues that transnational networks of non-state actors gain greater access to and influence over states when they identify with international norms that the states themselves have formally accepted--even if that formal acceptance did not initally reflect any serious intention to implement or monitor the norm in question. This process has been called the 'boomering effect'. The resulting redefinitions of state interests raise the diplomatic salience of the norm in question, and thereby increase its effectiveness. The article illustrates this process with a study of changes in the US foreign policy towards Soviet and Eastern European compliance with the human rights norms of the Helsinki Accords in the mid-late 1970s.     

Analysing labels,associations, and sentiments in Twitter on the Abu Sayyaf kidnapping of Viktor Okonek

This article investigates Twitter data related to the kidnapping case of two German nationals in the southern region of the Philippines by the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG). It explores perceptions of the ASG, along with associated organizations and sentiments indicated in the tweets together with statistically significant relationships. Findings revealed that: “Rebel” and “Militant” were the most frequently used labels for the ASG; a majority of the tweets contained sentiments that assess threats such as abduction and kidnapping of hostages; and almost half contained words that indicate negotiation or concession to the demands of the captors. Logistic regression analyses on “Rebel” and “Islamist” revealed positive coefficients for these sentiments used as predictors. This meant that people who assessed threats and expressed sentiments that responders should concede to the captors’ demands were more likely to use the “Rebel” or “Islamist” labels. Rather than the two longstanding dominant narratives of the ASG as terrorists and criminals, the emerging rebel and militant labels suggest a more domestically and politically sensitive Twitter commentary than is represented in the work of the Al-Qaeda-centric paradigm exponents. These findings, along with the complex associated political and policy contexts and implications, are discussed in this article.     

阿富汗政治和解进程的进展、问题与前景

阿富汗政治和解进程包括招安与和谈两方面。目前,招安进程已有一定成效,但仍面临各种问题。而和谈进程则步履维艰,前景不容乐观。和谈进程的问题主要是：各方立场严重对立,谈判诚意不足。整体来看,阿政治和解进程的突出问题主要是：招安与和谈一手硬一手软,严重不平衡;各方内部分歧严重;各方＂以攻势促谈判＂的策略导致安全局势进一步恶化。     

Group Structure and Intergroup Relations in Global Terror Networks: Further Explorations

Studies have begun to look at the potentially crucial impacts of group decentralization and inter-group global networking in accounting for the extent and severity of violence in insurgencies and terrorism. Groups may be able to survive more effectively, evade anti-terror or counter-insurgency strategies, and inflict greater damage or more civilian attacks by operating under more or less centralized leadership, or by making use of the resources of other like-minded groups scattered across borders. While some analysts have examined each of these possibilities, few if any have done so simultaneously with both structural and networking indicators or examined the joint effects of these indicators. We propose to do so in this study by combining existing datasets on terrorist structure and networks. Hypotheses and findings in prior studies have indicated that structural decentralization may lead to more civilian attacks if not more destruction since local cells are freer to act on their own, and that group size and centrality in the global terror networks lead to greater lethality and group survival rates. We re-examine such assumptions here with OLS and logit models combining these effects, and find that in addition to group size, network reach (eigenvalue centrality) rather than group interconnections per se (number of allies) appears to have primary impacts on group lethality, targeting, and survival, sometimes in conjunction with decentralized organizational structure.     

Contagion in the Transpacific Shipping Network: International Networks and Vulnerability Interdependence

To what extent are states vulnerable to disruptions in trade networks? We investigate this question by simulating attacks on the intermodal shipping network, whose ubiquitous containers carry 80% to 90% of all global trade in goods. While this network has reduced transportation costs and spurred international trade, the dependence of modern economies on ship-borne trade means disruptions in one region may produce considerable costs for states in another region. We simulate an “optimal terrorist” that learns about the conditions under which attacks on the network in other parts of the world generate economic losses to the United States. The study illustrates that by adopting a network- and process-oriented ontology, the study of interdependence may better anticipate new sources of interstate and transnational conflict.     

Transitional politics in Afghanistan and Iraq: inclusion,consultation, and public participation

This article explores three main themes in comparing the transitional processes in Afghanistan and Iraq: (i) the clarity of the transitional frameworks and the need to separate discussions on such frameworks from debates on new constitutional arrangements; (ii) the degree of representation in the transitional institutions and the availability of channels for political consultation in the transitional processes; and (iii) the participation of civil society and the public at large in the transition processes.     

The Lonely Citizen: Indirect Representation in an Age of Networks

This article explores what it means to be represented and how the nature of representation might change in an age of networks. Citizens' perceptions of political connection and disconnection are examined on the basis of quantitative and qualitative surveys. A typology of political connection is presented and then expanded on the basis of the discussion of four potentially democratizing characteristics of digital information and communication technologies.     

Supporting Asylum Seekers and Refugees in Glasgow: The Role of Multi-agency Networks

The implementation of a dispersal policy in Britain has broughtasylum seekers to regions of the country which previously hadlittle experience of providing services for this group. Around10,000 asylum seekers have been resettled in the city of Glasgowsince 2000 as a result of the policy. Multi-agency networkshave been established in Glasgow as a medium for facilitatingco-operation across the voluntary and statutory sectors forthe provision of locally-based support services, while alsofacilitating community development. This paper explores theexperiences of these networks since their inception. While highlightingthe continuing importance of the voluntary sector in supportingasylum seekers and refugees, it raises concerns over the reactiveway in which services have been provided, where responsibilityhas fallen on voluntary and community organizations to fillgaps in statutory service provision. It further examines theimplications for social cohesion of housing-led resettlement,which has largely been in areas suffering from social deprivation.The findings highlight the frustrations of service providersworking within a disjointed policy framework, characterizedby contradictions between Scottish and UK policy goals.     

NGOs and post-violence community development: holistic,multi-track ventures in Afghanistan

This article explores the interview narratives of six NGO directors working in Afghanistan regarding the holistic and multi-track nature of their NGO's project work. Data analysis revealed that NGO leaders believed that effective NGO project work relies extensively on purposeful coordination with other NGOs, and is dependent on non-NGO actors such as the military, the UN, local government structures, and local organisations. However, working in proximity with international military forces posed special challenges for NGOs in Afghanistan. While validating the military's security work, NGO leaders believed it necessary to assert their independence from security operations, and military reconstruction and development work.

Les ONG et le développement communautaire post-violence : initiatives holistiques et à pistes multiples en Afghanistan

Cet article examine les comptes rendus donnés lors d'entretiens par six directeurs d'ONG qui travaillent en Afghanistan sur la nature holistique et à pistes multiples des travaux entrepris par leurs ONG respectives dans le cadre de projets. L'analyse des données a révélé que les leaders des ONG pensent que les travaux de projet des ONG dépendent considérablement d'une coordination délibérée avec d'autres ONG, et qu'ils sont par ailleurs tributaires d'acteurs autres que des ONG comme l'armée, l'ONU, les structures gouvernementales locales et les organisations locales. Cependant, le fait de travailler à proximité des forces militaires internationales pose des défis spéciaux pour les ONG en Afghanistan. Tout en validant les travaux en matière de sécurité menés par l'armée, les leaders des ONG pensent qu'il est nécessaire d'affirmer leur indépendance des opérations de sécurité, et des travaux de reconstruction et de développement menés par l'armée.

ONGs e desenvolvimento da comunidade após violência: Iniciativas holísticas e multifacetadas no Afeganistão

Este artigo explora as narrativas de entrevista de seis diretores de ONG trabalhando no Afeganistão, tendo em vista a natureza holística e multifacetada de seu trabalho de projeto de ONG. A análise dos dados revelou que os líderes de ONG acreditavam que um trabalho de projeto de ONG efetivo depende extensivamente de coordenação orientada com outras ONGs e depende de agentes que não sejam ONGs, tais como militares, ONU, estruturas governamentais locais e organizaç?es locais. Contudo, trabalhar de maneira próxima com forças militares internacionais impˇesafios especiais para as ONGs no Afeganistão. Embora validando o trabalho de segurança dos militares, líderes de ONGs acreditam que é necessário garantir a independõia deles das operaç?es de segurança e a reconstrução militar e o trabalho de desenvolvimento.

Las ONG y el desarrollo comunitario tras la violencia: experiencias integrales en múltiples frentes en Afganistán

Este ensayo analiza las entrevistas a seis directores de ONG de Afganistán relacionadas con la naturaleza integral y diversificada del trabajo en proyectos de las ONG. Las entrevistas revelan que los directores de las ONG creen que la eficiencia de sus proyectos depende en gran parte de la buena coordinación con otras ONG y con otros actores como el ejército, la ONU, las oficinas locales de gobierno y las organizaciones locales. Sin embargo, se presentaron retos especiales para las ONG por su trabajo con las fuerzas militares internacionales. Si bien los directores de las ONG aceptan el trabajo de los militares en tareas de seguridad, también insisten en reafirmar su autonomía frente a las operaciones de seguridad y al trabajo militar en reconstrucción y desarrollo.     

Communication,Cooperation and Challenges:A Roadmap for Sino-Indian Engagement in Afghanistan

IntroductionNearly one year into the so-called decade of transformation,Afghanistan is plagued by challenging circumstances.The government of national unity continues to be weak,the economy has failed to deliver on its promise and an increasingly fractured insurgency is making inroads in parts of the country previously believed to be stable.     

Post–Conflict Global Governance: The Case of Microfinance Enterprise Networks in Bosnia and Herzegovina

The article examines the institutional infrastructure that supports the foreign aid flows in the mcrocredit sector in postconflict Bosnia and Herzegovina. It documents the mobilization of transnational networks between different international agencies in the course of the policy formulation and implementation, and elicits the effects that certain network attributes exert on the policy choices made by individual organizations. How and why do international governmental and nongovernmental organizations, with at times conflicting goals, join forces in such networks? More important, whose goals are eventually implemented, and under what conditions? Whose goals are diluted in the process of network mobilization? What are the policy implications of such "battles" for the postconflict reconstruction? The article seeks some answers to these questions, demonstrating how transnational networks intermediate between the organizational goals and the final policy outcomes that result from such a network–based mode of global governance in postconflict regions.     

网络·社会资本·投资:对东南亚华商投资中国大陆特点的分析

本文试图通过社会资本理论来论述东南亚华商投资中国大陆的特点。为了更好的利用关系、网络等社会资本,实现投资利润最大化,东南亚华商早于西方资本对中国大陆特别是侨乡地区进行投资。为了更好地发挥社会资本优势,许多东南亚华商首先对香港进行投资,进而以香港为基地对中国大陆投资。东南亚华商成功地利用社会资本优势以较少的资金成本实现了跨国经营,同时也促进了中国社会经济的发展。