Contentious politics and student dissent in the twilight of the Portuguese dictatorship: analysis of a protest cycle

This article focuses on student opposition to the Portuguese Estado Novo regime, examining the links between the dynamics of mobilization and radicalization and the emergence of new political actors before the fall of the Salazar dictatorship on the one hand, and the revolutionary process which characterized the Portuguese transition on the other. The 25 April 1974 military coup d'état that overthrew the Estado Novo triggered what later came to be known as the ‘third wave’ of democratization; but the Portuguese transition was characterized by elements of rupture that were much more significant than those observed in the subsequent democratization processes of Spain and Greece. This rupture was a result of the form of regime change – a military coup d'état – and was sustained with the mass social mobilization that followed. While key studies have stressed that the political crisis after the fall of regime was the fundamental cause of this exceptional mobilization, the argument advanced in this article is that the pre-revolutionary cycle of protest also explains the particular characteristics of the Portuguese transition.     

Strategic silence as a third way. Political parties and transitional justice

How do political parties react to transitional justice (TJ) processes? Do they always have to choose between supporting and rejecting the punishment of the outgoing elite and their collaborators? While Huntington emphasized the existence of two major approaches to TJ – for and against – this article argues there is a third way that has been relatively understudied – strategic silence. It will be argued that, under certain conditions, political calculations can lead to the adoption of silence as a deliberate strategy by certain political actors in TJ processes. Focusing on the Portuguese case (1974–1976), the article explores why, and under what conditions, silence is perceived as the best strategy in dealing with the past following the defeat or breakdown of an authoritarian regime.     

葡萄牙人在浙江沿海的通商与冲突

嘉靖元年(1522年)西草湾之战后,葡人被逐出广东,在中国私商的导引下,占据浙江双屿港作为国际走私贸易的据点。起初,葡萄牙人在双屿主要从事中国沿海的走私贸易,后发展成在日本、闽浙和满剌加之间从事三角贸易。随着走私贸易的发展,双屿形成了一个具有相当规模的葡萄牙人居留地。然而,由于葡人在浙江沿海从事海盗活动,以及中葡商人的“商欠”纠纷,促使中葡关系不断恶化,并导致中葡之间的大模武装冲突,其结果是葡萄牙人被逐出浙江沿海,结束了在那里的通商活动。     

International Relations in Portugal: The State of the Field and Beyond

This paper appraises the evolution of International Relations (IR) as an academic discipline in Portugal before engaging in an examination of the present state of the field. It is concerned with historical issues, associated with the discipline's journey towards its standing as a social science in its own right in Portuguese intellectual life. It considers institutional developments including those recently generated by the implementation of the Bologna framework for IR courses taught at national academic institutions. The Appendix offers an introduction to Portuguese IR publications.     

Explaining the number of rebel groups in civil wars

Why do multiple rebel groups form in some civil wars but not others? Since 1946, only half of all civil wars were fought by a single rebel group; the rest were fought by multiple groups. This article argues that this variation is determined by the incentives political entrepreneurs have to enter a war. The higher the demand for political change and the lower the costs of fighting, the more incentives entrepreneurs have to form their own group. Analyzing UCDP data for all civil wars between 1946 and 2015 I find that the two measures of demand – the number of identifiable ethnic or religious groups in a country and the size of the disgruntled population – have the most consistent effects, but that key measures of costs such as the size of the government military also matter. A detailed analysis of the Ethiopian case further reveals the influence of external intervention on the formation of rebel groups. These results suggest that rebel groups emerge in civil wars in rational, predictable ways related to the ease by which rebel elites can mobilize separate groups for fighting.     

The political economy of labor market deregulation during IMF interventions

This study examines the relationship between policy interventions by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and de jure labor rights. Combining two novel data sets with unprecedented country-year coverage – leximetric data on labor laws and disaggregated data on IMF conditionality – our analysis of up to 70 developing countries from 1980 to 2014 demonstrates that IMF-mandated labor market policy measures significantly reduce both individual and collective labor rights. Once we control for the effect of labor market policy measures, however, we find that collective labor rights increase in the wake of IMF programs. We argue that this result is explained by the impact of union pressure on governments which, in such a context, are imbued with the policy space to respond to domestic interest groups. The study has broader theoretical implications as to when international organizations are effective in constraining governments’ choices.     

Dealing with populists in government: the SYRIZA-ANEL coalition in Greece

ABSTRACT

The Great Recession triggered an unprecedented level of political turmoil in Greece, leading to a major readjustment of the party system and the near disappearance of the once mighty socialists of PASOK. Gradually, SYRIZA – a radical-leftist-turned-populist party – rose to become the key electoral player under the aegis of its young and popular leader, Alexis Tsipras. SYRIZA eventually won two general elections in 2015 and ruled together with the populist radical right Independent Greeks (ANEL) as junior partner, a coalition of great analytical significance, representing the first ever governing alliance of left-wing and right-wing populist parties in Europe. This contribution investigates reactions to the SYRIZA-ANEL government, giving special emphasis to measures undertaken by domestic and external actors. A key finding that warrants further research is that, under the same conditions of economic crisis that bring populists to power, economic institutions and material constraints can play an important role in taming populist actors and socializing them into the standard rules of the liberal democratic regime.     

Still focused on the Atlantic: accounting for the limited Europeanization of Portuguese security policy

This article examines the limited Europeanization of contemporary Portuguese security policy and highlights how the persistence of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the emergence of the Lusophone world have shaped Portuguese participation in the European Union's (EU's) Common Foreign and Security Policy in recent years, particularly in Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) missions in Africa and in the European Defence Agency's co-operation activities. Europeanization's conceptual weaknesses, combined with the mutually reinforcing nature of transatlantic, EU and Lusophone security co-operation, have reinforced the ambiguous nature of what a “Europeanized” vision for European security might look like, especially given long-standing loyalties to NATO. This affords states considerable margin for manoeuvrability in defining their security priorities, so long as they are seen as being broadly consistent. This article reassesses the appropriateness of the Europeanization concept and shows how Portugal has approached this strategic balancing act, supporting the development of the EU's CSDP whilst remaining loyal to NATO and seeking to develop security relations in the Lusophone world, achieving legitimacy by stressing complementarity and multilateralization in security co-operation.     

Using the personal influence model to guide theory building for participatory communication in Africa

Abstract

This article argues that the personal influence model (PIM) be used strategically to resolve conflicts and social crises in Africa. It presents PIM as a complementary, analytic discourse to participatory communication, a development paradigm commonly used globally in a variety of social programs. That discourse, as a framework for theory building, is grounded in Africa's emerging and enduring realities: (a) the growing interest of the international community to assist Africa to meet the U.N. Millennium Development Goals, whose focus is to reduce extreme poverty by 2015; (b) the ephemeral nature of Africa's political and social stability that necessitates reducing fear, improving community security, nurturing public trust, and building inter-group relationships, all as preconditions for attaining social development, and for using a community-agency- contracts-partnerships approach to deliver development services; and (c) the palpable congruence of PIM with Africa's extensive social networks, which are typically used as communication tools for social development. Those realities guide four propositions that serve as a heuristic template for testing and refining the participatory approach, thereby guiding theory building in participatory communication in African communities. That template identifies an expansive three-concept research agenda – culture, community governance and rule of law, and economic freedom – that raises questions, defines concepts, measures key variables, and assesses outcomes.     

Uncovering land tenure insecurities: tips for tenure responsive land-use planning in Ethiopia

Land-use planning, although a mechanism for development, can also generate insecurity during its implementation. This article argues that tenure security and land-use planning should not be implemented in isolation from each other. It posits that land-use planning – rather than restricting the security of people's tenure – has the potential to serve as a means of securing tenure. The article explores tenure (in)security elements in land-use planning as a crucial challenge in the urban town of Gelan Sidama Awash, Ethiopia. Using data collected through stakeholders’ interviews, it uncovers their tenure security challenges, and outlines a set of measures for enhancing tenure security through land-use planning.     

The Responsibility to Protect at Ten: Glass Half Empty or Half Full?

Abstract

Far from having faded away, ten years after its formal adoption, the responsibility to protect (R2P), is arguably more relevant than ever. In the current overall context of protection crises, heightened in severity by the emergence of violent extremists, R2P has changed the way in which the international community characterises situations that involve protection failures, and has raised expectations about what should occur when atrocity crimes have been committed or are imminent. UN member states now agree that prevention is at the core of R2P, that international action should employ the full range of diplomatic, political and humanitarian measures, and that military force should only be considered as a measure of last resort. While there is continued contestation about particular aspects of R2P – as there is over much older normative advancements, such as human rights – R2P has helped to forge political consensus and build new institutional capacity to prevent and respond to atrocity crimes.     

16世纪东南中国海上走私贸易探析

16世纪,在环中国海贸易圈内,传统的贸易格局发生了根本性的变化,这时活跃在东亚贸易大舞台上的除了起主导作用的福建海商,还有新航路开辟后到达这里的葡萄牙人以及日本人,中国东南沿海地区的海洋社会经济逐渐被纳入到近代世界经济体系中去,环中国海贸易圈出现了激烈动荡的局面。     

Evaluating the potential of Protestant Christianity to stimulate democracy and good governance in sub-Saharan Africa through the valuing of the individual

ABSTRACT

The global distribution of Christians is expected to change by 2050, with the largest proportion of Christians – more than a billion – residing in sub-Saharan Africa. Historical and empirical studies have argued for a positive relationship between the proportion of Christians – Protestants in particular – and the development of liberal democracy. A key explanation for this positive influence is cultural, namely the valuing of the individual. Could the growth in Christianity have the potential to influence democratic development and good governance in the sub-Saharan region? To test our hypotheses – (1) sub-Saharan states with proportionally larger Protestant populations are more likely to have higher levels of democracy and good governance, and (2) sub-Saharan states with growing Protestant populations are more likely to have increasing levels of democracy and good governance – we employ a longitudinal and cross-sectional study (a panel of data) using data from the World Christian Database, Polity IV and the International Country Risk Guide. Our data show that the population share of Protestants is positively related with both levels of and growth in democracy and good governance. With the spread of Protestantism we could expect the future improvement of democracy and governance in the region.     

透视国际金融危机中的俄罗斯经济困境

国际金融危机和国际市场油价暴跌使俄经济面临严峻挑战。面对突然袭来的国际金融风暴,俄罗斯政府不断采取救市措施,伴随着俄罗斯经济陷入困境和全球实体经济步入衰退,俄罗斯政府推出了大规模反危机计划。但是,对俄罗斯政府来说,金融危机对经济的冲击惯性还没有停止,大规模反危机计划还有待实施,因此2009年的俄罗斯经济陷入了严重衰退。对俄罗斯政府来说,产业结构的弊端严重制约俄罗斯经济走出危机,反危机任重道远,挑战和机遇并存,俄罗斯经济前景堪忧。     

ASEAN's diplomatic and security culture: a constructivist assessment

In the wake of the Asian financial crisis and the subsequentviolence that built up and then tore apart East Timor in 1999,serious criticisms were levelled at the Association of SoutheastAsian Nations (ASEAN) and its diplomatic and security culture.This article examines to what extent members of ASEAN –after the Hanoi Summit in 1998 until mid-2001 – collectivelyembraced new understandings in relation to norms associatedwith the ‘ASEAN way’. This question is exploredwith respect to four initiatives: the initiation of the retreatof ASEAN foreign ministers, the participation of ASEAN membersin United Nations missions in East Timor, the adoption of theASEAN Troika concept, and the passing of rules of procedureof the ASEAN High Council. It is argued that due to concernsabout ASEAN's image and reputation, some of the shared understandingsintrinsic to ASEAN's long-standing diplomatic and security culturehave been relaxed, particularly the principle of non-interference.While this development reaffirms the value of constructivisttheorizing in international relations, the article also demonstratesthat the aforementioned initiatives and agreements do not yetamount to a radical change in ASEAN's diplomatic and securityculture. The main reason for this is that norms associated withthe ‘ASEAN way’ are still perceived to serve theimportant and necessary function of helping to mediate estrangementand insecurity among ASEAN leaderships, as well as limitinginterference by non-ASEAN states.     

Overcoming poverty and inequality: Rwanda's progress towards the MDGs

Despite the 1994 genocide there has been annual growth in Rwanda every year since 2000. Poverty has decreased; while the MDG target of 23.8% is unlikely to be met by 2015, the future looks hopeful. The goal of reducing hunger is measured by underweight children – already down to target – and extreme poverty – likely to hit the target. Key to success is reducing dependency on the land, but a majority of the population still depend on their farm or plot. However, hitting targets for reducing poverty is not the same thing as abolishing it, and achieving targets does not necessarily solve problems.     

Trapping Constituents or Winning Hearts and Minds? Rebel Strategies to Attain Constituent Support in Sri Lanka

Why do rebels choose violence over non-violent methods to attain the cooperation of their constituency in the war against the government? This article assesses the importance of rebels' dependency on constituent support through a case study of the LTTE in Sri Lanka. The empirical findings suggest that dependency largely results in non-violent measures. However, a multitude of passive coercion methods – broadly unaccounted for by existing theory – evolve over time in the form of territorial and social entrapments. This implies that rebels do not need the hearts and minds of their people to wage war at later stages of conflict. Time pressure, however, appears to result in violence.     

Financial Markets Matter More than Fiscal Institutions for the Success of the Euro

Many argue that the euro is handicapped as a currency because European governments are unwilling to pool responsibility for fiscal policy in common institutions. This argument is derived from the theory of optimum currency areas and fuelled by analogy with US experience. It is mistaken. A monetary union does not need a fiscal union to work. Worse, efforts to build European fiscal institutions are likely to distract European policymakers from a more important agenda. Europe needs a fully functioning banking union with a common risk-free asset if Europeans want to stabilise the euro as a common currency. Moreover, it would need these things even if the euro did not exist and all it had was the common market. Financial stability – and not fiscal federalism – is the key to Europe's future. European policymakers should focus their efforts on building the necessary institutions.     

Improving Media Measurement: Evidence From the Field

In light of a recent exchange between Prior (2013a) and Dilliplane, Goldman, and Mutz (2013), we evaluate the new American National Election Study program-count measures of news exposure using a unique dataset that tracks self-reports as well as actual exposure to news collected via passive tracking devices. We bring these data to bear on concerns raised by Prior (2013a) about the construct and convergent validity of the new ANES measures. Our results add nuance to previous findings showing respondents’ propensity to overreport exposure to news, and also demonstrate that on average, self-reported measures reflect relative levels of exposure quite well. Additionally, we show that the more unique news programs a person watches, the more total time he or she is exposed to political news. Very few people watch only one program but watch it repeatedly. The data also reveal an increase in the number of programs watched leading up to election day, and a concomitant increase in the amount of time per capita spent with political news as elections approach. We conclude, however, that the program-count measure is not without its weaknesses. Shortening the list of programs affects construct validity by introducing noise into the low end of the scale. Expanding the list of programs in the survey to include local news and special reports will improve fidelity at the low end of this new measure.     

THE PROOF IS IN THE PUDDING: (RE)CONSIDERING THE EXCELLENCE OF ACTIVISM IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN MINING INDUSTRY

ABSTRACT

One of the greatest changes organisations in South Africa experienced through the country's democratisation is the introduction of ‘legitimate’ activism in organisational settings. Organisational communication literature – specifically as manifest in the excellence theory – compounded this through views on the potentially positive impact activism could have on organisations by ‘pushing’ them beyond equilibrium to a state of dynamic equilibrium – mediated through strategic and effectual communication. This view, however, is somewhat fouled by occurrences such as those at Marikana, and concomitant strikes in the country's platinum industry, which have held the economy ‘captive’ in various ways. Organisations – especially the mining industry – need to ask ‘How much activism is too much activism?’ and organisational communication practitioners need to introspectively consider whether this theoretical contribution should not perhaps have come with greater guidance in terms of the chary (if not restrained) implementation of this potentially positive, yet almost insidiously dangerous, communicative feature. this article aims to explore activism in the mining industry of South Africa, specifically from the vantage points of industry heads, as it concerns the changed communicative landscape in this industry post-marikana. to this end, the article will report on seven qualitative, semi- structured interviews – along with existing literature on the topic – as it offers up six considerations in applying the aspect of excellence and ‘positive activism’ within organisations in South Africa's mining industry.