非洲银行业发展趋势与中非金融合作（英文）

The African banking sector is composed of central banks and deposit-The deposittaking financial institutions. The African sector which experienced robust development was not severely hit by the international financial downturn or the European sovereignty debt crisis in terms. The author argues that it is significant to study the African banking sector to further deepen the Sino-African financial cooperation, especially cooperation between central and commercial banks.     

Sovereign Debt Crisis in Euroland: Root Causes and Implications for European Integration

This article considers the likely impact of the global crisis on the prospects for the European project. First, it considers the nature of the current crisis. It argues that it is comparable, in terms of its deep structural character, to the one in the 1930s. The crisis manifested itself first in the financial sector, but was caused by underlying problems of overaccumulation, which explains the succession of speculative booms and busts from the 1980s onward. The article then analyses how the financial crisis transmuted into the current sovereign debt crisis in Europe. It identifies a number of interdependent factors responsible for this: the bailouts of banks following the credit crisis; the stimulus programmes necessitated by the danger of a deep economic recession; the structural problems of the European Monetary Union leading to the accumulation of debt in the peripheral members; and finally the catalytic action of speculation in the financial markets. Finally, the article discusses responses to the debt crisis, outlining the contours of two alternatives (muddling through and Europeanisation), their implications, and some of the conditions for success. The conclusion is rather pessimistic: chances that an effective, timely and sustainable solution will be realised do not seem high.     

Fostering Economic Growth through a “European” Debt

Economic growth in the EU area is one of the European Union's tasks and the Union's budget should be used to finance actions aimed at development. It is hard to imagine that an increase in budget revenues or a significant reduction in spending in other areas can provide the resources for this purpose. The proposal put forward is to allow for debt financing of investment spending and to downgrade the current constitutional status of the rule regarding a balanced budget. A “European” debt, it is suggested, could strengthen the international role of the euro. If such a reform were not to find consensus within the Union as a whole, it could, alternatively, be adopted in the Eurogroup.     

Financial Markets Matter More than Fiscal Institutions for the Success of the Euro

Many argue that the euro is handicapped as a currency because European governments are unwilling to pool responsibility for fiscal policy in common institutions. This argument is derived from the theory of optimum currency areas and fuelled by analogy with US experience. It is mistaken. A monetary union does not need a fiscal union to work. Worse, efforts to build European fiscal institutions are likely to distract European policymakers from a more important agenda. Europe needs a fully functioning banking union with a common risk-free asset if Europeans want to stabilise the euro as a common currency. Moreover, it would need these things even if the euro did not exist and all it had was the common market. Financial stability – and not fiscal federalism – is the key to Europe's future. European policymakers should focus their efforts on building the necessary institutions.     

The Crystal Curtain: A Postscript on Europe’s North-South Divide

The European Union’s sovereign debt and banking crisis has made apparent a gnawing gap between the northern and southern parts of Europe. Over the course of this past half decade, this divide has been brought into the public debate through a myriad of perspectives, from social trust to competitiveness. Yet, the governance sources of the divide are underestimated in policy practices and misrepresented in the political discourse. A governance approach can help clarify why the pursuit of convergence underpinning EU crisis-resolution mechanisms has become a contributing factor, rather than a prospective solution to the North-South gap. In doing so, governance also forms the basis for recommendations to policymakers in both halves of the continent, especially when confronted with the challenge of populist Euroscepticism.     

At the receiving end—Irish perspectives and response to the banking and sovereign debt crises

Having enjoyed nearly two decades of economic recovery and rapid development as one of the most successful member-states of the European Union, Ireland was shocked and chastened by the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 and its traumatic impact on the country. A threefold crisis assailed its economic and political elites and citizens when the property bubble built up since 2002 exploded 6?years later. Its banking system collapsed through over-exposure to loans built up from the cheap credit made available after the euro was introduced. There was an immediate impact on state revenues when property-related windfall taxes collapsed under this pressure, exposing a yawning gap between current expenditure and revenues. And the country’s economic competitiveness suffered from a runaway cost base. The paper puts these events in the context of Ireland’s overall experience of European integration and its economic development. It goes on to explain how Ireland got into trouble in 2008 and tracks the major events over the next 3?years and how they were handled. Three major axes of argument about the EU/IMF rescue packages are discussed, highlighting the views of political leaders and public opinion dealing with the intensified euro zone crisis in autumn 2011. The paper goes on to assess their attitudes to EU decision-making, the role of the European Central Bank, the prospects of treaty change and Ireland’s emerging position in a reconfigured Europe coming to terms with a more multi-polar world.     

Capital Account Liberalization,Financial Structure,and Access to Credit in Latin America

This article revisits the question of whether capital account liberalization improves access to credit by advancing and testing a theory of how the structure of the financial sector shapes the willingness and ability of banks and governments to repress the domestic financial sector. In a highly concentrated financial sector, banks and governments are more willing to reap the benefits of financial openness by suppressing liberalizing reforms to domestic financial policies, and they can also better coordinate with one another to stifle these reforms compared to when the financial sector is diffuse. Using a panel dataset of Latin American and Caribbean countries, I find that capital account liberalization leads to a decrease in loans to private firms and households and an increase in loans to governments and state-owned enterprises when the financial sector is highly concentrated. Only when the financial sector is diffuse does capital account liberalization lead to reforms in entry barriers, directed credit programs, and banking sector supervision, which extends to improved access to credit for private firms and households.     

Joint Default Probabilities and Sovereign Risk

The assessment of sovereign risk is of crucial importance for international lenders and investors. Many existing sovereign risk approaches are opaque and heavily rely on subjective choices. In general, they lack a theoretical basis. To assess sovereign risk, we use the Merton model in which a loan defaults if the value of a firm's assets falls below the value of its debt. In a portfolio context, this implies that default correlations warrant the utmost attention. We analyze defaults for 37 countries during the period 1970–1998. We find that sovereign default correlations are low. Joint defaults are highest in Central and Eastern Europe. They are intermediate in Latin America and they are low in (Southeast) Asia.     

The Eurozone Crisis as a Challenge to Democracy and Integration in Europe

This article explores how both the sovereign debt crisis and the European Union's response illustrate fundamental characteristics of contemporary European integration. In the face of an unexpected emergency, national politicians took the lead and pressed ahead with more integration. The long-term results though depend on national acceptance of not just the bailout provisions but also enforcement of debt brakes mandated by the new EU treaty. This means democratic politics at the national level will continue to have a fundamental influence on EU affairs, while the North/South split will co-exist alongside a more marked separation between countries inside and outside the Eurozone. In this context of increased political turbulence within the EU, there is likely to be only a limited window of opportunity for successful negotiation of a free-trade deal with the United States.     

The Dilemma of Rational Choice

Rational Choice Institutionalism differs from realist rationalism in holding that anarchy does not necessarily lead to conflict.An institution established with common interests and penalties will provi...     

Moving towards a European Defence Industry? The Political Discourse on a Changing Reality and its Implications for the Future of the European Union

Since the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 the European Union has been an increasingly important actor in the field of security and defence. However, the defence industries sector has largely been kept away from Brussels. This has usually been justified by the role that national defence industries have traditionally played as fundamental pillars for the survival of the European nation-states, thus making them reluctant to share this “sovereign tool” with the European Union. Nonetheless, recent steps in both the economic (large number of mergers and acquisitions within the European defence industry sector) and the political (security and defence integration measures within the European Union) arenas have contributed to changes in the political discourse on defence industries within the European space. This article aims to explore how the national discourse on defence industries has become interrelated with a European discourse on the topic—a European discourse that mixes some of the old national arguments with particular aspects related to the constant evolution of the European Union towards an ever more coherent regional polity and international actorness. Also analysed is the extent to which this political move puts at risk the European Union's ambitions to promote a better world, based on an alternative understanding of international politics.     

全球金融危机对泰国银行业的影响与前瞻

一、1997年亚洲金融危机后泰国银行业的改革之路 1997年亚洲金融危机中,泰国饱受国际投机资金冲击之苦,特别是泰国银行为满足国内融资缺口而大肆 举借外债,进行外债内投、短借长投,币种和期限不匹配风除不断积聚,最终由于泰铢的突然大幅贬值而遭受巨大冲击.     

A computational text analysis of the South African banking sector's representation of its core values: A corpus-driven approach

Abstract

This article uses corpus linguistics (CL) to computationally quantify and qualitatively explain how meaning is represented vis-à-vis core values in the text of the 2009 annual reports of the South African banking sector. Core values prescribe the behaviour, attitude and character of an organisation and may be indicative of an organisation's ideologies. This article draws on the work of Fox (2006a and b), who advances the new development of merging linguistics and corporate communication, and in so doing adopting a transdisciplinary perspective on language. Written text is an ideal method with which to capture an organisation's ideologies through corporate public discourse (CPD) such as annual reports, because the organisation can control the content and distribution. However, as corporate messages are generally written by the ‘entity’ and not by the individual, writers essentially accept the banks’ practicing power through consent. The results illustrate how the repeated use of content words may skilfully position the reader of the text positively towards the South African banking sector's core values represented in the text. Researching language in organisations not only facilitates strategic competence in comprehending communication processes, but can also be beneficial in terms of more credible CPD.     

Lessons of the European crisis for regional monetary and financial integration in East Asia

The debt crisis in several member states of the euro area has raised doubts on the viability of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the future of the euro. While the launch of the euro in 1999 stirred a lot of interests in regional monetary integration and even monetary unification in various parts of the world, including East Asia, the current crisis has had the opposite effect, even raising expectations of a break-up of the euro area. Indeed, the crisis has highlighted the problems and tensions that will inevitably arise within a monetary union when imbalances build up and become unsustainable. This article discusses the causes of the current European crisis and the challenges that EMU countries face in solving it. Based on this analysis, it derives five lessons for regional financial and monetary cooperation and integration in East Asia.     

EU Development Predicaments

The massive debt of the EU member countries,the short sales of Wall Street,and intensifying media hype have resulted in the continued spread of the European sovereign debt crisis,a crisis that in fact ...     

欧债危机对拉美经济的影响:现状及展望

2011年以来,欧洲主权债务危机不断深化,其未来发展存在重大不确定性。新兴经济体受到明显冲击,其经济增长速度明显下滑。随着欧债危机的深化,拉美经济的宏观稳定和金融稳定风险不断累积。拉美经济体面临着政策持续与政策退出、政策刺激与衍生风险、经济增长与金融稳定等目标之间的两难抉择。债务问题还将持续冲击金融市场,拉美经济体的主要金融市场中短期内将保持震荡甚至是下行格局,国际资本流动更加紊乱。未来欧债危机对拉美经济体的影响将体现为:全球经济可能二次探底,部分拉美经济体可能硬着陆,需警惕滞胀风险;全球总需求仍不足,拉美经济体出口将进一步放缓;国际资本流动可能逆转,拉美经济体金融风险需谨慎。     

Frankfurt’s double standard: the politics of the European Central Bank during the Eurozone crisis

Abstract

In this article, I examine the bias in favour of financial markets displayed by the European Central Bank (ECB) during the Eurozone crisis. Having analysed the roots of the ECB’s bias, I explore the discrepancy between the conditionality of ECB financial support that is directed towards states and that which is directed towards markets. On the one hand, the ECB has exerted strong coercive and cognitive pressures to reform Eurozone economic governance in a market-friendly way. On the other hand, it has employed monetary measures to save large Eurozone banks from a complete meltdown without controlling how these banks use their provided liquidities. I conclude by stressing the democratic problems engendered by the ECB’s bias.     

欧洲债务危机的根源及前景

一年多来,欧洲债务危机一直是国际上谈论的焦点之一。美国出于转移世人对美国经济低迷、债务沉重的关注和原本对欧元影响美元霸主地位的不满,也在竭力指摘欧债危机拖累美国经济。欧债危机原本是二战后欧洲国家长期实行“高工资、高福利”政策导致经济发展迟滞的结果,当前不可能有“立竿见影”的解决办法。然而,当今的欧盟,作为世界第一大经济体,虽经受金融危机的冲击,经济实力并未大为削弱,只要从实际出发,开源节流,着眼长远,欧元区就不会解体,欧洲一体化必将会以“多速欧洲”推进。     

Mapping out the institutional geography of external security in the EU

The growth of European Union (EU) competences in the field of external security in the last decade has produced a substantial increase in the number of EU institutions and bureaucratic actors engaged in the planning and management of these policies. Moreover, the expansion of competences in such a sovereign sensitive area comes up against the persistent intergovernmental nature of the security sector. This has resulted, on the one hand, in a complex institutional architecture with heavy demands in terms of coordination, and on the other hand, in a stark differentiation and stratification of the legal regimes with a potential to impact on policy outcomes. This state of uncertainty is particularly relevant when looking at relations with countries bordering the Union, as the long-standing web of interactions there has developed a more complex institutional environment. While most of the scholarly literature focuses on single institutional sectors or policies (Common Security and Defence Policy, European Neighbourhood Policy, or the external side of the Area of Freedom, Security and Justice), this study seeks to address the issue with a comprehensive analysis of the institutional framework that has emerged in the last decade, more notably, since the entry into force of the Treaty of Lisbon. The article provides, first, an overview of the EU’s institutional actors responsible for security policies in the regions bordering the EU, and second, an examination of the different mechanisms established to address the coordination issue. Finally, this study will argue that the traditional military dimension is but one, and certainly not the most developed, of the security instruments employed by the EU. At another level, it will be argued that the shift of focus from the military to other security tools has altered the institutional balance in the security sector, substantially adding to the relative influential weight of the Commission.     

European‐Atlantic Security Institutions: Current state and future prospects

Since the turn of the millennium, scholars and pundits have been musing over the decline of the West. The disappointing US military invasions in Afghanistan and Iraq, together with the subprime mortgage crisis, seem to be evidence of an abrupt end to America's ‘unipolar’ moment. In Europe, the sovereign debt crisis has amplified Europe's long-term structural economic problems and laid bare the fragile institutional foundation on which the Economic and Monetary Union was built. At the same time, the BRICs and other emerging economies have been growing at unprecedented rates. Those same analysts see a ‘decoupling’ in the world economy: the developing economies pulling the world out of recession, while the advanced industrial economies are unable to solve their domestic difficulties. So to them, the events of the past five years signify the beginning of the end of Western influence, eventually leading to a more complete rebalancing of the world economy's current ‘Western’ system of governance. This article argues instead that the West still has a significant edge when it comes to most critical factors that determine long-term economic growth potential, including technology, innovative capacity, research and development, investment climate and education. Furthermore, the transatlantic economy is less vulnerable than the rest of the world to outside economic shocks and might eventually prove more capable of reform than many expect. The current malaise in the transatlantic community might therefore prove once again to be more cyclical than structural. Relying on linear projections, many are ‘crying wolf’ again, too loud and too soon.