US‐European trade relations: Between crisis and stability

Future historians may consider 2010 a defining moment in the evolution of attitudes towards multilateralism. Natural disasters, China’s economic rise, and continued sluggish growth elsewhere might well condition future attitudes. Beyond the headlines, three points seem clear. First, building multilateralism is a long game: there is a considerable lag between changed perceptions about the desirability of multilateral cooperation and its realisation. Second, building multilateralism requires political impulse and leadership. Third, the extension of multilateralism requires the right domestic as well as international political conditions. Current political and economic conditions suggest that patience is in order in the quest to build a more multilateral order.     

Partnerships for effective multilateralism? Assessing the compatibility between EU bilateralism, (inter-)regionalism and multilateralism

This article investigates the notion of ‘lateralisms’ and how various modes of engagement (namely bilateralism, regionalism and multilateralism) relate to one another. It begins with a careful analysis of the evolution of ‘lateralisms’ and their (in)compatibility at the global level, building on the existing literature from multiple research disciplines. The second part of this article focuses specifically on the European Union's (EU's) foreign policy approach. The author puts forward two main hypotheses. First, the EU has performed a rebalancing act between bilateralism and regionalism/multilateralism over the last decade in favour of the former, notably through the deepening of its so-called ‘strategic partnerships’. Second, this enhanced bilateralism is not necessarily compatible with other ‘lateralisms’, as it can at times undermine regional integration processes or the building of an effective multilateral order. The author eventually formulates some recommendations to ensure that bilateral partnerships are geared towards the strengthening of the multilateral fabric which remains the EU's fundamental and long-term objective.     

印度在艰难中稳健崛起

2009年印度国大党赢得大选,取得多年来少有的胜利继续执政,政局保持了稳定。经济上以宽松的财政政策、货币政策应对国际金融危机的影响,使经济发展走出困境,保持了增长势头。在外交方面,印度参加了几乎所有主要的多边外交活动,加强了与美、俄等大国的关系,大国外交成效显著。     

Fostering Security in Southeastern Europe: A Role for the EAPC

China’s regional policy is mainly centred on its efforts to forge a friendly, stable and prosperous neighbourhood. To achieve this end, China has developed an approach combining both partnership bilateralism and tailored regional multilateralism. By and large, China does not consider its neighbourhood as a whole and has been very cautious and hesitant to engage in overarching ‘region-building’. China has relied mostly on soft (attractive) use of power, particularly economic power, supported by cultural and assurance diplomacy, even though diplomatic and economic coercion have been exercised occasionally. China has once again become the biggest economy in Asia. Yet, neither the new power configuration in Asia nor China’s own ambitions point to a return to the old ‘Middle Kingdom’ with China holding a dominant position in its neighbourhood. China will most probably continue to see itself as a self-restrained regional power in the foreseeable future.     

The rise of “diminished multilateralism”: East Asian and European forum shopping in global governance

The article argues that the “principled multilateralism” of the immediate post-Cold War period is increasingly giving way to what may be called a “diminished multilateralism.” Newly emerging global and regional powers such as the BRICS states (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and other rising powers in the Global South are increasingly questioning the legitimacy of the existing international architecture which they regard as a vehicle of the USA and Western countries to conserve their international influence in an era of rapid change. In the process, international institutions have increasingly become arenas of power rivalries which take the form of contests over access and membership, decision-making rules and normative order. The result is an increasing paralysis of these institutions and their inability to solve global problems. One aspect of these institutional power struggles is “forum shopping.” The article shows that East Asia and Europe have both become active players in forum shopping. Three conditions facilitated forum shopping: major crises and external shocks; sentiments of frustrated entitlement in connection with exclusive and discriminatory international institutions, and extra- and intra-regional power shifts.     

South Africa's Economic Diplomacy: Constructing a Better World for All?

The article raises questions such as: 'Is South African "economic" diplomacy primarily "economic"?' and 'how altruistic in intention are the diplomatic efforts currently being undertaken by South Africa?' These questions flow from the interplay between the premise that economic diplomacy seeks to serve economic interests through diplomatic means, and the pronouncements made by South African decision makers that point to a broader, more altruistic agenda being pursued. In exploring the political and economic elements of current South African economic diplomacy, some pertinent aspects of South Africa's foreign and economic policies are highlighted, and South African economic diplomacy is broadly sketched. The focus is on the post-1994 period, but developments are put in historical perspective. The article concludes that current South African economic diplomacy serves both economic and political interests and that it is deployed in an extremely complex environment in which it is virtually impossible to disentangle the economic from the political and the altruistic from self-interest.     

An ocean for the Global South: Brazil and the zone of peace and cooperation in the South Atlantic

In this article, we analyse an instance of revitalisation of a dormant interregional organisation dating back to the Cold War: the Zone of Peace and Cooperation of the South Atlantic (ZOPACAS), initially launched by South American and African states in 1986 through the UN General Assembly. Drawing on the concepts of “consensual hegemony” we argue that the current phase of ZOPACAS’ existence is characterised by Brazil's efforts to rekindle it, thus reflecting its aspiration to create a new space of influence. Rather than pursuing more traditional forms of regional leadership, Brazil uses ZOPACAS as part of a persuasion-based strategy based on regional multilateralism that is designed in antagonism to other international organisations and Western powers. However, this strategy also faces important limitations resulting from resource constraints, lack of institutionalisation and an excessive exclusionary focus on minimising the role of global powers with interests in the region.     

冷战后老挝外交政策的特点及走向

冷战后,老挝外交政策表现出四个特点:由政治外交转向经济外交;重点发展与越南、中国等传统友好国家的关系;从地缘政治考虑,参与并扩大与东盟各国的合作;转向"全方位外交",增进与各大国的交往。今后老挝外交政策将围绕政治独立、经济发展、安全维护、地位提升等方面展开,以实现国家利益最大化。     

胁迫式外交:战略竞争时代美国对外战略的转型

以特朗普政府2017年《国家安全战略报告》和2018年《国防战略报告》为标志,世界进入美国启动的战略竞争新时期,地缘政治争夺和大国竞争再度成为世界政治的突出主题。美国重振和维护世界主导地位的目标未变,但"胁迫式外交"成为特朗普政府推行对外战略的常态,美国对外行为出现了冷战结束以来最为显著的变化,表现为重新激活战略军事威慑以压制战略军事竞争对手、以贸易热战和科技冷战方式打压战略经济竞争对手、以政治勒索方式逼盟友承担义务、以极限施压方式压制地区敌对国家、以退群和搅局方式阻挠多边外交。美国推行胁迫式外交与特朗普个人的执政风格相关,但根本性的原因是国际政治权力结构的重大变化和战略竞争时代的来临,推动美国对外权力输出发生了转型性变化。这也意味着美国对外权力输出方式正在发生从软实力向硬实力、从依赖制度优势向依赖实力优势的巨大偏转。美国所谓国际"领导力"正加速蜕变为维护美国特权的"胁迫力",美国权力输出的这种变化可能代表着未来美国外交发展的一种长期趋势。     

The Making of the Inter-American Democratic Charter: A Case of Complex Multilateralism

This article examines the diplomatic process found in the making of the Inter-American Democratic Charter. Many components of this dynamic point to a significant bending of the "old" pattern of multilateralism associated with the Organization of American States (OAS). The normative purpose behind the charter centered on the collective right to democracy as opposed to the traditional defense of sovereignty. The pattern of involvement contained some parallels with initiatives considered the prototypes of a "new" multilateralism, namely the campaigns against antipersonnel land mines and for an International Criminal Court. That is to say it featured an intense style and a "bottom-up" diplomacy with extensive engagement by secondary states and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Notwithstanding these features, the multilateralism in the making of the Inter-American Charter is depicted as not simply "new" but complex. Stimulated by the 2000 political crisis located in that country, leadership on the charter came from Peru not a classic middle power. The United States was not the maker of the charter but neither was it an opponent or breaker of the initiative. The early burst of speed slowed when resistance appeared from a cluster of states. Serious splits appeared among NGOs involved with the charter process on a north/south basis. To nuance the claims of "new" multilateralism is not to discount the conceptual or (as witnessed by its use in the April 2002 crisis in Venezuela) operational significance of the charter. The argument made in this article, however, is that it was this hybrid nature of the initiative that contributed to its claims of innovation and measure of success.     

Responses to Financial Crises: An Evolutionary Perspective

As the world currently faces the ever-deepening sub-prime crisis, we are reminded that the process of globalisation can cause significant disruptions in global markets and political systems. This article focuses on the evolution of financial crisis responses to gain a better understanding of the dynamics affecting current responses. By using a focused comparison of case studies it argues that the development of crisis response and the dominance of the current multilateral actors is a result of an evolutionary process. This process privileges learning and innovation within a complex political economic system. The crises of each era, born of many of the same problems, generate a variety of responding actors, a few of which are adopted. These actors help to address the immediate problems and even work well for a while. Eventually, they are overwhelmed by the tendency of financial interactions to grow. Another set of crises generates another round of actors and mechanisms. As time goes on, crisis response requires more formal institutions that can deal with more complex systems. The article concludes that response actors are becoming more public, multilateral and global in scope. Understanding this pattern of response should help to shed light on the potential for reform of the financial architecture and help to explain the dominance of multilateralism as a crisis response.     

哈萨克斯坦参与全球治理的举措、动力及前景

自1991年独立以来,哈萨克斯坦不但成功巩固了国家主权,在政治、经济、社会发展等领域取得了举世瞩目的成就,而且在外交领域赢得了国际社会的高度赞誉,使哈萨克斯坦成为全球治理舞台中最为活跃的中亚国家。在参与全球治理进程中,哈萨克斯坦将自己定位为“有实力的重要地区大国”,奉行以巩固主权独立和维护国家利益为中心的“全方位务实平衡”外交战略,通过建立睦邻友好信任带的“近邻外交”和以伙伴关系为基础的“远邻外交”,拉近与世界各大国及周边国家的外交关系,在国际和地区热点问题上扮演着“沟通者”和“调停者”角色,积极推动中亚地区内部的一体化进程,广泛参与全球与地区性国际组织,在核不扩散和文明对话等领域提出了各种有影响力的倡议,力图将本国的利益和世界的利益融为一体,为哈萨克斯坦的发展赢得了很大的机遇和空间,使哈萨克斯坦在国际社会中的能见度不断提升。作为中亚国家经济发展最为成功、外交最为活跃、国际影响力最为显著的国家,哈萨克斯坦参与全球治理的实践经验值得发展中国家学习借鉴。     

Invest,Hold Up,or Accept?China in Multilateral Governance

China has played an inconsistent role in multilateral governance, sometimes contributing to the creation and maintenance of international regimes, sometimes free riding or even threatening to undermine multilateral regimes to improve its position. We show that the strategic context of a particular issue of international concern affects China's approach to multilateralism and argue that our approach adds additional leverage to existing theories that rely on assumptions about its inherent disposition or socialization processes. An emerging global power will be willing to invest more in supporting a regime when its outside options are relatively poor. When its outside options are good, it will free ride on the efforts of more established states if it is not a necessary player in maintaining regimes, and if it is seen as indispensable it will threaten to hold up regime support as a way to win concessions. We show that these two factors, outside options and indispensability, can help explain changes in China's strategy with respect to the issue of North Korea's nuclear program and the regulation of international finance.     

China and the Pacific Island Countries

Since formal diplomatic relations between China and Fiji were established in 1975, China has gradually developed its bilateral and multilateral relations with the Pacific islands countries （PICs）. Especially in recent years, China has deepened its involvement in the South Pacific, and its influence in the region has been growing rapidly. Today, China appears to be one of the major players in the South Pacific region. This increased Chinese engagement has drawn wide attention in academic and political circles. While some scholars and analysts take a positive view of such an engagement, others are concerned about the rising presence of China in the region. Is China＇s engagement with the South Pacific a new strategic threat or not？ This paper will examine the major motives underlying China＇s engagement with the South Pacific and analyze the implications of China＇s engagement for the PICs and Australia.     

Contested multilateralism

“Contested multilateralism” describes the situation that results from the pursuit of strategies by states, multilateral organizations, and non-state actors to use multilateral institutions, existing or newly created, to challenge the rules, practices, or missions of existing multilateral institutions. It occurs when coalitions dissatisfied with existing institutions combine threats of exit, voice, and the creation of alternative institutions to pursue policies and practices different from those of existing institutions. Contested multilateralism takes two principal forms: regime shifting and competitive regime creation. It can be observed across issue areas. It shapes patterns of international cooperation and discord on key security concerns such as combating terrorist financing, halting the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and banning certain conventional weapons. It is also evident on economic issues involving intellectual property, on environmental and energy issues, and in the realm of global public health. The sources of dissatisfaction are primarily exogenous, and the institutions used to challenge the status quo range from traditional treaties or intergovernmental organizations to informal networks, some of which include non-state actors. Some institutions are winners from the process of contested multilateralism; others may lose authority or status. Although we do not propose an explanatory theory of contested multilateralism, we do suggest that this concept provides a useful framework for understanding changes in regime complexes and the strategies that generate such changes.     

俄罗斯政治经济形势及外交走向

本文论述了普京执政以来的俄罗斯政治经济形势及外交走向.政治形势趋向稳定,经济形势有所好转,外交走向日益明朗.俄罗斯开始进入一个由乱转治的历史转折新时期.在政治方面俄罗斯实现了新旧政权的平稳过渡,调整了政权结构,打击了车臣分裂主义势力,缓解了社会矛盾,维护了国家统一;在经济方面修正了经济改革路线,调整了经济政策,治理并改善了经营和投资环境,促进了经济增长;在外交方面维护了叶利钦后期外交政策的连续性,寻找了自己在世界多极化新格局中的位置,以本民族利益为中心调整了外交政策,加强了与独联体国家的联系,改善了同西方大国的关系,推进了与东方国家的关系.但是,由于普京的内外政策尚未完全定型,改革的道路崎岖不平,经济缺乏增长的坚实基础,此外,国力锐减又限制了与西方大国外交活动的空间,所以俄罗斯的社会经济发展仍会遇到一定的阻力与困难.     

Europe's global ambitions and the New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD): of what relevance is the Politique Africaine?

The New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD) agreed in 2001 between the G7 and African leaders is an ambitious initiative to resolve the problems of economic underdevelopment, political instability and armed conflict in Africa. Essentially, it rests on the promise of increased economic aid in exchange for African commitment to liberal political and economic governance. This article examines the implications of NEPAD for the EU's policies towards Africa. It argues that the EU's economic instruments are more suitable for tackling security problems in Africa than its evolving military capacity or global multilateral cooperation with African states through NEPAD structures. It is argued that extant structures of European-African relations can significantly impact on African governance processes and their security outcomes only if they can be graduated into ‘constitutive’ forms of economic intervention similar to processes of accession into the EU. Such a modification, based on variegated competitive partnerships, would be consistent with the French origins of European-African relations and maybe possible because of the links between French foreign policy and Europe's evolving global role.     

奥巴马的东亚政策与地区构建

奥巴马政府上台后的东亚政策不仅显示了美国对东亚地区的重视,还表明了美国在与东亚地区发展关系中将更注重政治、经济、外交等软实力的运用。其思路也逐渐清晰,即以保持美国在东亚地区的战略主导权为核心。而围绕这个核心有三条主线:一是整个战略继续以日美同盟为主轴的军事同盟体系和伙伴国为依托,保持美国在东亚的军事地位;二是加强与东盟等区域合作组织的联系,引导其发展方向符合美国利益;三是以对话方式与中国进行战略博弈,以免中国挑战美国的霸权。东亚地区构建也将出现新的形势:美国跨太平洋区域构建面临多重挑战;东亚合作更加开放与包容;东亚区域合作更加倚重东亚核心国家合作的深入。     

霸权的逻辑：美国亚太安全战略的多边转向

二战后,美国在亚太地区构筑起双边联盟体系,但近年来对于加强多边安全合作更为积极。美国近几届政府在亚太安全战略方面作出了重大调整,从奥巴马政府到拜登政府都在推动双边合作转向多边合作,而为何发生这一转变值得探讨。美国在权力优势明显时,倾向于采取双边合作;当美国权力优势缩小时,更加重视多边合作,其安全合作形式是接近于联盟还是相对松散的安全合作,则取决于外部威胁性质和内部分歧大小。美国亚太安全合作形式的调整取决于中美实力差距、外部威胁变化和成员国分歧,多边形式可以更大范围地进行国际动员,最大程度地维护自身的霸权地位。美国在亚太地区的多边安全合作拥有稳固的合作基础、灵活的多边形式和共同的身份认同,有助于美国调动战略资源和联合应对共同关注的威胁。亚太多边安全合作增强了美国的安全动员能力,冲击了亚太地区秩序,给中国带来较大的安全压力。但不同合作机制也面临合作程度不一、成员战略分歧和合作议题分散的影响,合作进程存在着不确定性。     

Globalisation

The term ‘globalisation’ is widely used to describe a variety of economic, cultural, social, and political changes that have shaped the world over the past 50-odd years. Because it is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon, globalisation has been credited with a wide range of powers and effects. Its proponents claim that it is both ‘natural’ and an inevitable outcome of technological progress, and creates positive economic and political convergences. Critics argue that globalisation is hegemonic and antagonistic to local and national economies. This article argues that globalisation is a form of capitalist expansion that entails the integration of local and national economies into a global, unregulated market economy. Although economic in its structure, globalisation is equally a political phenomenon, shaped by negotiations and interactions between institutions of transnational capital, nation states, and international institutions. Its main driving forces are institutions of global capitalism – especially transnational corporations – but it also needs the firm hand of states to create enabling environments for it to take root. Globalisation is always accompanied by liberal democracy, which facilitates the establishment of a neo-liberal state and policies that permit globalisation to flourish. The article discusses the relationship between globalisation and development and points out that some of the most common assumptions promoted by its proponents are contradictory to the reality of globalisation; and that globalisation is resisted by more than half of the globe's population because it is not capable of delivering on its promises of economic well being and progress for all.