The Balkans and Euro-Atlantic Energy Security

Europe’s current energy crisis underscores its failure to deal adequately with the problems posed by increasing dependence one Russian gas. Particularly in the Balkans Russia’s oligopolistic position if not monopoly in some countries adds to its leverage upon them, stimulates corruption and state capture, and in general inhibits the European integration project. Nevertheless, there are opportunities to bring more gas into the Balkans and through them to Central Europe to reduce Russia’s hegemonic position in the gas market and reverse the trend towards illiberalism and poor governance that marks the region. Albania’s example and the connections to its neighbors that flow form its EU-approved plan illustrate what should be done and how such programs would improve energy and governance, if not security, in the Balkans and Europe as a whole.     

Why We Need to ‘Unpack’ Regions to Compare Them More Effectively

States are finding it increasingly difficult to provide good governance in response to today's problems in a globalised world, as they are often either too small or too big to cope with current crises. One of the strategies of states to remedy this situation is to construct regional levels of governance at the supranational or national level. This has led to the creation of diverse forms of regional governance worldwide, thereby ushering in a neo-Westphalian world of states and regions. In order to advance the research agenda of comparative regionalism, scholars need to ‘unpack’ regions along several conceptual dimensions. This includes seeing regions as economic areas, public goods spaces as well as actors in the international arena. In addition, a distinction needs to be made in studying the projects, processes and products of region building. Moreover, studying regions needs to take into account the discursive context of ‘regionalism speak’. Finally, more attention needs to be dedicated to the internal complexity of regionalisms. In sum, comparing regions is not a straightforward exercise, and in some case regions should not be compared with other regions, but with states.     

Bad neighbors? How co-located Chinese and World Bank development projects impact local corruption in Tanzania

The rise of China as a "non-traditional" development partner has been one of the most important phenomena in the field over the past decade. The lack of transparency in Chinese development projects, coupled with an uninterested stance towards governance, lead many to wonder if Chinese engagement will contribute to or undermine existing development efforts. This paper adds to the debate by inquiring as to the relationship of Chinese development efforts with perceptions of, and experiences with, corruption when projects are closely-located to those from a traditional donor, the World Bank. Taking advantage of spatial data, the paper evidences an association between the location of a larger number of Chinese projects and higher experiences with and, to some extent, perceptions of corruption when accounting for co-located World Bank projects. Likewise, while World Bank projects are associated with lower levels of corruption in the absence of Chinese projects, this relationship disappears when Chinese projects are nearby. However, these relationships only hold for Chinese projects which are not "aid-like," suggesting that the differentiation of Chinese overseas flows is an important consideration when studying China as a development partner.     

澜湄合作中的非传统安全治理:从碎片化到平台化

澜湄地区的安全问题以非传统安全为主,涉及跨境犯罪、社会公共卫生、水与环境安全、信息网络犯罪等广泛议题,呈现出明显的复合性与联动性的结构特征,深刻地影响着该地区的政治、经济和社会安全。自2016年澜沧江—湄公河合作机制正式成立以来,国内外学术界对澜湄合作给予广泛关注和多视角研究,但对于该机制框架下的非传统安全研究还相对缺乏。长期以来,澜湄地区的非传统安全治理属于“碎片化”治理模式,机制拥堵,治理政策、资金、技术、人力和物力的投入分散,且缺乏持续性,导致安全问题无法从根本上解决。澜湄合作机制成立后,从合作治理内容、结构、参与主体等方面,推动了非传统安全治理逐步向“平台化”模式演进和发展,从根本上促进了澜湄地区国家之间的务实合作与非传统安全问题的解决。《澜湄合作五年行动计划(2018~2022)》已将非传统安全合作列为重点合作内容,未来澜湄合作需要在治理范式创新、多层平台搭建、早期项目设计和收获等方面完善非传统安全治理机制,持续推动澜湄合作拓展和深化。     

The Effects of Majority State Ownership of Significant Economic Sectors on Corruption: A Cross-Regional Comparison

Given both corruption's and bureaucratic inefficiency's importance for development and good governance, understanding their causes is paramount. This paper argues that majority state ownership of most the most important economic sectors of a country results in higher levels of corruption and inefficiency. When political and managerial elites both own and manage the country's most important economic resources, they have greater incentives for corrupt or inefficient behavior. These elites use national resources at their disposal more for short-term personal and political goals than for long-term economic ones. This paper tests this hypothesis on a relatively underused, but often cited, data set from the 1980s. Using a cross-national, regression analysis, this paper finds that the best predictors a country's level of corruption or bureaucratic inefficiency are these: majority state ownership of significant economic sectors, levels of GDP per capita, levels of government spending, and levels of democracy. Other factors, such as common law heritage, percent of population that is Protestant, federalism, economic freedoms, or mineral/ oil exporting, were not consistent, significant predictors of either bureaucratic inefficiency or corruption. We also argue that Tobit may be the best estimation procedure for these data.     

合成生物学时代：生物安全、生物安保与治理

合成生物学是现代生物学最具发展潜力的领域之一,它将工程学的理念引入生物学研发中,汇聚性地融合多学科概念、方法和工具,从而能够设计、改造或创造新颖的或具有专门功能的生物系统或生物体。合成生物学具有广阔的应用前景,其革命性的进展有望改善人类生活的诸多方面。然而,作为典型的两用性研究领域,合成生物学的发展伴随一系列潜在的生物安全和生物安保的双重风险,将给人类、动植物和生态环境带来重大危害,给国家安全造成威胁。现有治理模式已不再适应合成生物学的高速发展和颠覆性变革。为探寻合成生物学领域风险治理的适当模式,需要根据合成生物学发展现状和趋势,客观、有效地分析合成生物学发展所附带的安全和安保问题及演变趋势,进而从国家法律规制、政府监管、科学共同体的自治以及政府、共同体的国际合作与对话等方面,探讨动态调整的综合性合成生物学生物安全和生物安保风险的治理模式。     

Judicial reform and international legal technical assistance in Latin America

In Latin America judicial reform is crucial to both economic liberalization and democratization including the advancement of the rule of law and human rights agendas. The World Bank, the Inter‐American Development Bank, the United States Agency for International Development and other donors have responded with international legal technical assistance to a variety of projects, in pursuit of a number of different objectives. But for the most part governance improvements and economic concerns have been uppermost, reflecting the prominent position of the World Bank. The situation has both advantages and disadvantages. The future of judicial reform in the region will depend on the capacity to build a political consensus on the way forward, not just among donors but within the societies themselves.     

The substance of EU democratic governance promotion via transgovernmental cooperation with the Eastern neighbourhood

Existing studies of the European Union’s (EU) democratic governance promotion via transgovernmental cooperation in the EU’s neighbourhood seem to take the substance of what is being promoted by the EU for granted. In filling this gap, this article examines the substance of EU democratic governance promotion by assessing (1) to what extent norms of democratic governance appear in EU Twinning projects implemented in the Eastern neighbourhood, and (2) what factors account for differences in the presence of democratic governance norms across those projects. To explain possible variation, the article hypothesizes that the democratic governance substance of Twinning projects will vary with the country’s political liberalization, sector politicization, sector technical complexity, and EU conditionality attached to reform progress in a given policy sector. Data are retrieved from a content analysis of 117 Twinning project fiches from the Eastern neighbourhood and analysed via standard multiple regression. The article finds that the EU mostly promotes moderate, mixed democratic governance substance, which varies across different projects. This variation may be best explained by the level of political liberalization of the beneficiary country and the politicization and technical complexity of the policy sectors and institutions involved in respective Twinning projects.     

人工智能时代背景下的国家安全治理：应用范式、风险识别与路径选择

作为新一轮科技革命和产业变革的核心驱动力量,人工智能技术的发展与应用在为社会提供强大发展动力的同时,也对国家安全治理造成了一系列影响。实际上,人工智能技术与国家安全之间存在一种结构性互动的关系。一方面,人工智能技术能够基于进化赋能的实践应用,从传统安全、非传统安全以及两者间的重叠领域,为国家安全提供更为有效的维护和保障机制;另一方面,人工智能技术的应用也存在着超出预期设想的可能性。因此,人工智能在国家安全治理中的应用就极易在"界域与有效性""效能与可靠性"以及"竞争与稳定性"之间出现矛盾。尤其是在因人工智能技术嵌入所导致的力量失衡以及安全格局的转变下,国家安全就极有可能在国家竞争的稳定性、社会治理的有序性与技术应用的稳定性三方面遭受巨大的冲击。需要指出的是,目前人工智能技术所导致的国家安全风险已经逐步显现,而全面评估人工智能技术对国家安全治理带来的机遇与挑战将是解决这一技术安全悖论的关键所在。为此,中国应在紧抓人工智能技术发展契机的同时,更要加强对这一技术发展潜在风险的研判和预防,从而维护好中国的国家安全与人民利益。     

亚洲安全治理转型的历史分析与趋势展望

冷战对亚洲安全格局产生了根本影响,助推美国在亚洲安全格局中的主导地位,由此形成支离破碎、犬牙交错的地缘安全格局,迟滞地区国家探索亚洲安全治理的进程,导致多种安全观剧烈碰撞、相互影响并复杂互动,使亚洲形成两极之间的中间地带,为世界走向多极化创造了条件。从公共产品供给角度分析,亚洲安全治理主要存在美国主导的亚洲安全治理、东盟主导的地区安全合作和以中国为代表的亚洲新安全观及其实践,各种类型的安全治理在现实中并存共生,相互影响,相互作用,形成当今亚洲复杂多元的安全治理体系。中国在积极倡导新型安全理念、共同维护地区安全、探索安全治理新模式、强化大国战略互信、管控周边难点热点问题等方面,采取了一系列负责任、建设性、可预期的政策和举措,并取得了积极效果。亚洲安全架构建设依然任重道远,中国要以新安全观为指引,积极推动新安全观同地区各方安全理念和治理模式对接,推进亚洲地区安全架构建设,深化同有关国家的互信合作,推动构建亚洲命运共同体,在促进亚太安全治理和推动亚太安全新格局的构建中承担更大责任,发挥更大作用,作出更大贡献。     

The World Bank's land of kiosks: Community driven development in Timor-Leste

The World Bank's Community Empowerment and Local Governance Project (CEP) was the key donor programme to assist with community reconstruction in a newly independent Timor-Leste. Commencing in 2000, the US$18 million project provided funds to over 400 local development councils that had been newly created to meet their community's development needs. Rather than creating genuine participatory structures, tight deadlines to disburse project funds and bureaucratic project rules reduced the councils to little more than transmission lines to Bank-controlled dollars. By bypassing existing governance structures, including that of the fledging government, the councils also bypassed sources of local legitimacy and technical knowledge, which resulted in community conflict, indifference, and poor project sustainability. The CEP's poorly administered microcredit scheme led to a proliferation of unviable kiosks—underlining the folly of hastily attempting to construct a market economy on a deeply scarred subsistence economy.     

A supranational party system and the legitimacy of the European Union

China’s emergence as an economic and military power has given rise to apprehensions globally, related not only to China’s cultural and historical ‘alienness’, but also to its apparent willingness to challenge the global system and architecture of global governance. While non-Western countries are wary of the possible impact on them and on the global order of Chinese actions, they appear to be willing to cooperate with China on some global issues in order to change a system often seen as inequitable and unbalanced. Yet, the West seems to conflate the idea of a rising China with that of other emerging markets. Given their historical, political and cultural experiences, however, their access to power and influence, if and when it happens, need not necessarily take the same route as China. This is true particularly of India; India is likely, at least for the foreseeable future, to remain within the existing paradigm of global governance, though it may seek to adapt the rules and structures to better reflect its economic, political and security interests. This would not preclude cooperation on a selective basis on specific global issues with different partners, particularly in the realm of global challenges such as climate change, non-proliferation, international trade and finance and the global commons, such as space, the oceans and cyberspace.     

南海安全区域间治理模式探析

实现南海区域安全与和平、稳定一直以来是中国和东盟国家就南海局势展开对话与合作的重要议题之一。然而,现实中的南海安全局势却一再紧张,这表明南海区域安全制度性安排与安全秩序理念和现有变化、发展迅速的南海安全形势已经出现了不同步、不协调的状况。在过往长期的南海安全区域间治理实践中,东盟和中国作为南海周边最具影响力的国家间集团和最重要的区域大国,以不同的方式,就南海安全的区域间治理展开了对话与合作,并形成了各自富有特色的治理模式,"东盟模式"和"中国模式"。这两种模式从不同层次和多个渠道就南海区域安全治理进行了对话与合作,并在南海安全区域间治理方面发挥了一定的效用。然而,目前南海安全体系呈现出来的脆弱性和南海区域安全现况却一再揭示,中国和东盟在南海安全区域间治理进程中还面临着不少现实的困境。为克服这些困境,更好地实现南海安全的区域间治理,中国和东盟应形成合力,为南海安全的区域间治理重塑一个相吻合的制度规范,共同构建一个相匹配的角色、身份与创造一个具有建设性意义的内外治理环境。     

武装组织治理制度与反叛成功

当前武装组织治理制度建设成为内战研究的重点。武装组织治理制度是武装组织对其控制区域和民众管理的相应制度与规则体系。以反叛成功为分析对象,通过系统评估武装组织治理制度建设对其内战中获得冲突优势的影响,可以看到,武装组织的反叛成功并不直接由武装组织治理制度决定,而是取决于武装组织治理制度在内部与外部产生的效果。在内部维度,武装组织治理制度需要取得良好的相对治理绩效;在外部维度,武装组织治理制度需要一个有利的国际战略环境并可对其进行塑造。而武装组织治理制度并不能确保相应效果的实现。通过混合研究的模式对以上观点进行检验:在定量研究方面,通过两个不同层次的数据库对于武装组织治理制度与反叛成功的关系进行检验,发现武装组织治理制度与反叛成功之间无直接的联系;在案例比较研究方面,通过两个具体武装组织的实践案例(阿富汗塔利班和"伊斯兰国"组织)进行分析,可以发现武装组织治理制度与反叛成功之间的关系并不确定,因此并不存在简单的正向促进关系。     

Regional and multi-level governance: East Asian leadership after the global financial crisis

Although the economies of East Asia emerged from the global financial crisis of 2008 in comparatively strong positions, they remain structurally embedded within global markets. The degree of regional integration that has occurred within East Asia is thus predicated on the on-going interdependence with the economies of Europe and North America. Moves to advance East Asian regional cooperation in the wake of the crisis reflect this global interdependence, as well as intra-regional differences in interests and a lack of strong leadership within the region. Modest cooperation on an East Asian basis has continued since 2008 but the region is very far from realising a substantive regional governance model on economic and financial issues and does not appear to be pursuing a distinctive governance agenda. This article examines recent developments in East Asian regional cooperation, with a view to assessing the significance of current achievements and explaining the mixed and sometimes contradictory nature of initiatives for regional governance in East Asia.     

Canal bureaucracy and the corruption nexus around water in the Mumbai hinterland: Questions for development and governance in Maharashtra,India

This is a case study of corruption in an irrigation project in a “tribal” belt of the Mumbai-Konkan region in India. Using Robert Wade’s framework of the corruption nexus in the irrigation department, it critically examines, among other features, the relationship between junior section engineers on the one hand, and senior executive engineers and politicians on the other. The article highlights key features of this nexus in the specific context of tribal Maharashtra, and shows that junior section engineers and bureaucrats in irrigation projects often wield informal power and can frequently block the activities of rent-seeking senior executive engineers and politicians. The article later relates this account of bureaucratic politics to throw light on the social, political and economic dynamics of water management in the context of the intensely competitive inter-sectoral politics of water sharing in the Mumbai-Konkan region.     

Time to up the game? Middle Eastern security and Chinese strategic involvement

In view of the resources invested by China in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the geopolitical-security dynamics at play, it is helpful to examine the notable security risks and uncertainties of the project. Embedded in this broad context, the paper at hand zooms in on one of the world’s most volatile regions—the Middle East, situated strategically at the juncture of the overland and seaborne routes. Substantively, it focuses on the security dynamics in the region and China’s current engagement therein, with a view to assessing whether and the extent to which China will boost its strategic presence in the BRI context. Some conclusions can be drawn from the research. First, the Middle East faces a multiplicity of security risks and challenges, compounded by a problematic existing security architecture based on inadequate cooperation among regional actors and questionable ad hoc interventions by major outside powers. Second, China’s current relations in Middle Eastern countries have been overwhelmingly economic and driven by energy. Its political-security presence, albeit growing, remains marginal. Third, given the imperatives for China to play a more substantial role in Middle Eastern security (not least the need to ensure the BRI’s security) and the risks/costs of doing so, it would make sense that China seeks to step up its game in areas that are conductive to stabilising the region and yet do not entail intensively investing strategic resources and publicly taking sides (e.g. infrastructure and conflict mediation). This offers reasonable prospect of further EU-China cooperation.     

The Complexity of Global Security Governance: An Analytical Overview

By suggesting predictable and controllable patterns of development, the literature on global governance seems to simplify the world for decision-making tractability. In this respect, security narratives often remain analytically frozen, while the dynamics of global life are not. Relying on complexity thinking, this article both comments on the construction and potential reconstruction of the concept of security as it relates to the question of global governance and engages with the cognitive multiplicity of the notion of global security governance. Such an exploration suggests the need for the complexification of the discourses and practices of security governance through the adaptive contingency of “security as resilience”, which rejects the detachment between human and natural systems and the ability of the former to control the latter. The argument is that the logic of “security as resilience” is more appropriate than the conventional logic of “security as control”. In policy terms, therefore, the complexity of global security governance intimates an ability to cope with vulnerabilities, defy adversity and construct a new proficiency in response to the uncertainty, cognitive challenges, complex unbounded risks and the need for continuing adaptation prompted by the alterations in global life.     

数字经济时代的全球数据安全治理与中国策略

进入数字经济时代以来,日益严峻的数据安全风险与变幻莫测的国际形势交织叠加,各国围绕数据安全治理规则博弈呈现加剧态势,引发全球数据安全治理问题。各国际行为体虽然已经意识到数据安全治理的重要性,但对全球数据安全治理并未形成统一的治理框架。全球数据安全治理仅仅由单边、双边和多边框架以及贸易规则拼凑而成,相关治理议题在公民个人、社会、经济以及国家安全等多个层面相继涌现。多领域多维度的数据安全问题难免造成治理主体利益诉求的差异,也导致全球数据安全治理出现了规则碎片化、机制效用不足、治理乏力等问题。与此同时,个别国家的数据霸权主义行为更是使得国际行为体难以凝聚共识,全球数据安全治理步履蹒跚,重视和加强对全球数据安全问题的治理迫在眉睫。中国高度重视数据安全的相关议题,由于中国在数据治理领域起步较晚,仍存在立法不完善、技术创新能力薄弱、国际合作不足、治理乏力等问题。中国需要全面、系统地分析影响数据安全的各种重大风险因素,准确把握全球数据安全趋势,进一步优化中国在全球数据安全治理中的策略选择。