The bush administration's security strategy: Implications for transatlantic relations

There are signs of growing transatlantic estrangement over multiple international issues. An important catalyst for this estrangement is the National Security Strategy (NSS) that the Bush administration promulgated in September 2002, a document that is a detailed imperial blueprint. Despite its pretensions, however, it is not a global strategy, but instead appears to apply primarily to the 'Islamic Arc'--the territory from North Africa to the border of India. The administration's security strategy has important implications for the transatlantic relationship, since the United States is encouraging NATO to become a junior partner for missions throughout the Islamic Arc. Given the growing divergence in US and European interests and policy perspectives, the role that the Bush administration envisages for NATO is probably not sustainable. The 'West' was an artificial geostrategic concept that needed an extraordinarily threatening common adversary (the Soviet Union) to give it substance. The US and its allies will continue to drift apart strategically, and the Bush administration's security strategy may actually hasten that process. It is uncertain, however, whether the European Union will achieve the cohesion necessary to counterbalance US power. The main task facing statesmen on both sides of the Atlantic is to learn how to disagree about specific policies without becoming disagreeable.     

The impact of EU-Enlargement on relations between Europe and East Asia

On 1 May 2004 the European Union’s biggest Enlargement ever materialised when ten countries joined the EU. The new member states—Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, the Slovak Republic, and Slovenia—brought 75 million new citizens into the Union which now comprises a population of 455 million. In spite of the historical importance of EU enlargement, it seems to have raised relatively little interest beyond Europe. This paper tries to narrow the research gap by discussing the most significant implications of EU enlargement for Europe–Asia relations in the areas of general inter-regional (political) links, trade and investment.     

9/11 and the growing Euro-American Chasm over the Middle East

While Euro-American differences over key issues in the Middle East were notable prior to the September 11 terrorist attacks, they widened significantly after the attacks, with respect to how to approach Iraq, Iran, and the Middle East peace process. This article explores these changes and thus offers a snapshot of the effect of 9/11, a snapshot that can also illuminate the backdrop to the transatlantic imbroglio regarding Iraq in 2003.     

“9·11”以来“东突”势力的新变化及其动因

"9·11事件"以来,"东突"势力中的极端恐怖组织日趋边缘化并出现分化。其中一部分组织"圣战化"倾向日益突出,其威胁仍在上升;另一些组织则与相对较为温和的"东突"分裂组织合流,加快整合进程;与此同时,"东突"势力主流实行策略调整,试图扭转劣势。由于与极端恐怖势力藕断丝连以及内部的权力斗争,"东突"的这一轮"转轨"努力成效有限。本文剖析了这些新动向及其原因,并在此基础上进一步分析了"东突"分裂势力的发展趋势,认为"东突"组织中"东伊运"等恐怖组织出现边缘化、"圣战化"趋势,而"世维会"的影响则呈不断扩大之势,有可能确立其在境外"东突"分裂势力中的主导地位。     

美欧博弈中东"民主化"及其影响

美欧在"民主改造"中东的问题上愿景一致,但实际利益有别,导致博弈方略显现分歧,收效不同.尽管如此,双方仍坚持各自计划.由于中东地区形势复杂,各种矛盾交错,局势动荡不安,故美欧博弈将对地区形势造成深刻影响.     

Transatlantic trade and monetary relations: The nature and limits of conflict

The furore that greeted news that negotiations were to start on a transatlantic free trade agreement revealed not only the potential importance of any putative deal, but also the tendency of Europeans to view international politics almost uniquely in economic terms. This neglect of security and broader geostrategic issues is short-sighted and dangerous. It is precisely the liberal world order in place since the Second World War that has allowed Europeans to develop their economic potential. Leaving it to the United States to preserve that order is an increasingly problematic strategy, with the US ever more reluctant to police the world in the way it once did. The US has, for many years, asked its partners to contribute more to the preservation of common security interests. Given the failure of these attempts to date, it might be time for Washington to resort to tougher tactics in an attempt to entice Europeans out of their geostrategic retirement.     

Vulnerable warriors: the atmospheric marketing of military and policing equipment before and after 9/11

In this article, we analyse changes in the circulation of advertisements of policing products at security expos between 1995 and 2013. While the initial aim of the research was to evidence shifts in terrorist frames in the marketing of policing equipment before and after 9/11, our findings instead suggested that what we are seeing is the rise of marketing to police as “vulnerable warriors”, law enforcement officers in need of military weapons both for their offensive capabilities and for the protection they can offer to a police force that is always under threat.     

美印战略伙伴：进展、问题和前景

冷战结束后 ,美印关系的进展引人注目。通过 1998年后的战略对话和最高领导人的互访 ,以及 9 11后两国关系的转型 ,到今年年初双方宣布“下一步战略伙伴”倡议 ,双边关系进入一个新的高度。基于共同的价值和利益 ,华盛顿和新德里在经济和安全领域开展了前所未有的合作。但在双边关系不断升温的同时 ,两国在一系列国际问题上仍存在分歧。美印战略伙伴是暂时现象 ,还是会进一步走向战略同盟 ?这值得我们关注和准备必要的应对措施。     

Post-9/11 institutionalisation of European Union counter-terrorism: emergence,acceleration and inertia

Abstract

This article applies a historical institutionalist perspective to an empirical analysis of the sources and characteristics of the institutionalisation of European Union counter-terrorism. Drawing upon the work of Stone Sweet, Sandholtz and Fligstein, this paper critically analyses the impact of external crises in the form of major terrorist attacks on the emergence of counter-terrorism as an area of European governance. It also highlights the key policy and institutional developments, studies the role of policy innovators on the institutionalisation of counter-terrorism and supports the relevance of ‘transformative’ or ‘evolutionary’ models for the understanding of institutional change in this domain.     

Lost in Transition: The Liberal International Order in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus

Abstract

While espoused by the newly independent states after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the liberal order has not taken root in interstate relations and is now openly contested in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus. However, the challenges presented (primarily by Russia) to the international order also trigger growing contestation, in several Eastern European and South Caucasus countries, of an existing regional order premised on Russian hegemony. Therefore, the picture that emerges from these multiple contestations is not an alternative regional order, but rather overlapping orders in a fragmented region.     

"9·11"后美国在中亚的扩张及其对中国西部周边安全环境的影响

“9·11”事件后,美国打着“全球反恐战争”的旗号,在政治、经济、军事等领域全方位强势挺进中亚,将中亚变成继中东之后又一个集地缘、能源和安全三者为一体的战略场。美国在中亚的强势扩张使得中亚局势更添变数,给中国西部周边安全环境带来多方面的影响。     

Security cooperation in and with Asia: towards a pragmatic turn in the EU’s security policy?

ABSTRACT

Since the adoption of the first EU-Asia Strategy in 1994, there has been persistent scepticism about the EU’s ability to play a significant role in Asian security. Yet, since the release of the 2012 Updated East Asia Policy Guidelines, the EU has declared its intent to make greater practical contributions to Asian security. Against these premises, this article attempts to reflect on the evolution of the EU’s security approach to Asia, with the ultimate goal of analysing to what degree, it represents a continuation or a departure from former EU policies in the region. In scrutinising these developments, this article argues that in light of the strategic changes, that have occurred in Europe and in Asia, the EU has started to revise its security approach to the region in more pragmatic terms. The pragmatic character of the EU is seen as looking into the changes of the content of the security discourse, which appears increasingly depoliticised and, into the new practices of cooperation, which unlike in the past, seek to empower local actors, are sensitive to local needs and, call for greater security collaboration between the EU and Asian countries, to cope with regional and global challenges.     

美国国家安全战略视阈下的中美关系50年

自1972年中美关系“破冰”以来,美国国家安全战略视阈之内的中美关系经历了1972—1989年、1989—2017年以及2017年之后三个阶段。在这三个阶段中,制衡、塑造与争胜先后成为美国对华战略的逻辑核心。在第一阶段,美国对华的国家安全战略逻辑是“借重以制衡”,即借助中国来平衡苏联,中国在20世纪80年代一度被美国视为“友好的非盟国”。在持续时间最长的第二阶段,美国的国家安全战略逻辑是通过“接触以塑造”,希望塑造中国的政治经济模式以及对外行为方式。在20世纪90年代末期中国一度被美国视为潜在的战略伙伴。在2017年以来的第三阶段,美国试图通过“竞争以制胜”,防止中国的发展超越美国,美国国家安全战略视阈内的中国以及中美关系全面转向消极。50年来,中美关系经历过两次转向和重构,目前第二次转向和重构仍在进行中。过去50年,中美关系总是关系到美国全局性国家安全利益的重大问题;美国国家安全战略中的涉华部分超越党派之争,有着较强的一致性和连贯性,很多议题和提法都长期存在,或者早有伏笔。在美国国家安全战略中,涉华议题的内容越来越多,也越来越丰富;中美关系的合作面和竞争面都有明显增长,但竞争面的比重大幅上升。     

From discourse to policy: US policy communities’ perceptions of and approaches to climate change and security

ABSTRACT

Increasingly, a diverse set of policy communities, including those with defence, development and environmental mandates, frame climate change as a security threat. Most often this discursive formation labels climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’. This framing, however, is vague, linear and leaves many questions unanswered regarding how institutions can develop and implement policy that addresses the joint challenges of climate change, conflict and security. Utilising a mixed-methods approach, and grounding data collection in US policy communities, this article examines how policy actors and institutions integrate climate-security discourses into policy processes. The objective of this research is to provide direct insight into how the discourses and technical understandings of climate-security transition into policy priorities and implementation realities. This research identified three common approaches to climate-security: (1) A challenge of adaptation and resilience; (2) A potent political argument; and (3) An issue of limited importance and feasibility. These approaches, however, are inconsistent across sectors and within organisations, suggesting a lack of cohesion and considerable challenges in identifying and responding to climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’.     

Rising to the Challenge: Europe’s Security Policy in East Asia amid US-China Rivalry

ABSTRACT

China’s growing power and assertiveness towards its smaller and weaker neighbours has been a wakeup call for the European Union and its member states which, as a result, have stepped up their involvement in East Asia. EU security policy in the region shows many elements of alignment with the United States, but also differences. In North East Asia, the EU has adopted harsh sanctions against North Korea but, contrary to the Trump administration which continues to seek regime change, has left the door open for dialogue. Moreover, the EU supports the process of trilateral cooperation among China, Japan and South Korea, while Washington has traditionally been lukewarm towards a process that excludes the US and risks being dominated by Beijing. The transatlantic allies also show differing approaches with regard to maritime disputes in the South China Sea. While EU security policy in East Asia is largely complementary to that of Washington, in some cases Europe tends – albeit inadvertently – to favour Beijing.     

国际和国家安全视角下的美国“星链”计划及其影响

星链计划是美国太空探索计划公司(Space X)提出的一项太空高速互联网通信计划,初衷是在地球的近地轨道建设卫星互联系统,进而为全球提供高速的互联网服务。然而,在星链计划的发展过程中,不断闪现着美国政府与军方的身影。星链计划发展也对应着美国太空安全战略转型的新模式,其目的在于实现由美国技术主导的、全覆盖的新一代全球卫星互联网通信系统。从技术和市场竞争层面上看,星链计划的实施对现存的5G通信技术和未来的天基互联网系统将产生重大的冲击和影响。从深层次的国际和国家安全角度看,星链计划背后依托的是美国高度成熟的军民融合体系和太空安全战略转型,将从国防、产业价值链、信息主权与监管、轨道与频谱资源使用、太空空间利用和天文探索等方面,对国际安全及其他国家的安全构成复合型、交叉型新挑战。     

Recouping after Coup-Proofing: Compromised Military Effectiveness and Strategic Substitution

In order to counter the threat of a coup, states often undertake a number of strategies to “coup-proof” their militaries, such as creating institutional redundancy, severely limiting interbranch communications, and basing promotions on loyalty rather than merit. As a result of such policies, however, the fighting effectiveness of these armed forces is degraded, and the marginal return on military investment is greatly reduced. We argue that leaders who have coup-proofed their militaries undertake several substitution policies in order to offset their military weakness when faced with external threats. These policies include pursuing chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons and forging alliances. We find support for these theoretical predictions in quantitative tests on data with global coverage between 1970 and 2001.     

从中东变局透视国际秩序的演变

中东动荡不仅是该地区国家政治和社会发展历史进程的一部分,而且还深刻反映了国际秩序的调整与变化。冷战结束以来,国际环境的迅速变化以及世界政治经济权势的快速转移是诱发中东变局的重要原因之一。从时机上看,美国中东战略的收缩,为中东变革运动的兴起提供了可能;从发展上看,全球化的深入发展,拉大了中东与世界其他地区的差距;从理念和制度建设上看,改革创新的时代精神对缺乏机制和制度创新动力和能力的中东国家形成了巨大冲击。而正在转变中的国际秩序以及世界权力结构的变化趋势,也必将对未来中东地区秩序重构及各国政治及社会转型产生重要影响。