Assessing the reset: successes and failures in the Obama administration's Russia policy, 2009–2012

Critics of the Obama administration's ‘reset’ with Russia claim that it has failed to improve bilateral relations and has conceded too much to Russia at the expense of American interests. In fact, the reset has delivered significant improvements in key areas and established the institutional basis for continued cooperation in the future, benefiting both states. Although disagreements remain on several important issues including missile defence, humanitarian intervention, and democracy, the reset has been broadly successful on its own terms, which were always limited in scope and based on a pragmatic recognition of the limits of possible cooperation. Future progress is uncertain, however – obstacles include differences of national interest; the complicating effects of relations with third party states and the impact of domestic politics. A continuation of the pragmatic approach underpinning the reset represents the best chance for stability in the US–Russia relationship.     

浅析俄罗斯移民政策及其对中国移民的影响

20世纪90年代初中俄签订互免签证协议后,大量中国人跨过边界来到俄罗斯寻找致富机会,这引起俄罗斯政府的恐慌和担心,开始对中国人逐渐实行越来越严格的移民政策。这些法律和规定为赴俄的中国人合法居留和就业筑起难以逾越的障碍,将大多数劳动移民排挤到非法领域。严格的移民政策影响了两国的经济贸易发展,我们应该采取相应的针对性措施改善目前状况,促使中俄两国关系稳步发展。     

What it takes to win when the game is rigged: the evolution of opposition electoral strategies in Moscow, 2012–2017

This paper examines how the political opposition innovated strategies to overcome obstacles presented by Russia’s uneven electoral playing field. Using evidence from two municipal elections in Moscow, I argue that members of the opposition have coordinated around local contests in response to political opportunities created by the Kremlin, including the anti-electoral fraud protests of the winter of 2011–2012 and the resurrection of gubernatorial elections in 2012. Following these openings, grassroots electoral initiatives recruited and trained opposition-minded individuals, first focusing on established activists and then on politicized individuals, to run for municipal council seats. The campaigns provided training using ad hoc educational seminars and later developed electronic tools that lowered barriers to political participation. As a result of these campaigns, electoral competition has boomed at the local level in Moscow even as regional and national contests have become less competitive. The campaigns demonstrate the continued vulnerability of authoritarian regimes that rely on elections for political legitimacy. Furthermore, the development of highly portable online tools for campaigning has potentially long-term democratizing consequences.     

论日本大陆政策与俄国远东政策

日本大陆政策与俄国远东政策均形成于19世纪,并分别被两国确定为基本国策。两大政策的目标与实质基本相同,其宗旨均为向外侵略扩张,称雄于东北亚,因而在实施过程中给中国、朝鲜乃至整个亚洲带来深重灾难。两大政策之间的残酷争斗是主流并贯穿始终,但有时又不得不互相妥协和勾结,两国间甚至签订了3次公开协定和4次秘密条约。然而两大政策的结局与其初衷背道而驰,远东政策在一定程度上导致了罗曼诺夫王朝的彻底崩溃,大陆政策的直接结果是日本的战败投降。     

俄罗斯及其他国家的反贫困政策

贫困是一种经济社会现象。不同国家贫困现象产生的原因和贫困人口的构成存在差异。降低贫困水平的政策很大程度上取决于国家的经济社会发展。要解决贫困问题,必须制定和完善宏观经济政策,保持经济稳步持续增长,建立平等的社会保障和社会救助体系,形成有效的监测机制,同时国家须积极参与反贫困过程。     

俄罗斯人口危机与移民政策透视

地广人稀的俄罗斯在21世纪面临人口锐减和欧亚两部分人口分布失衡的压力,而强国富民战略的实施势必关涉劳动力资源配置,从西部、原苏联加盟共和国或邻国引入必要的人口是东部地区发展的先决条件。     

俄罗斯对外政策中的地缘经济因素

后冷战时期,俄罗斯地缘政治潜力下降,促使其对外政策中地缘经济战略凸现。地缘经济战略中的能源外交成为俄对外政策的重点。俄地缘经济战略的实施使其经济从解体后的萧条中复苏,但其也存在着不可忽视的变数。随着世界政治经济格局的变化,俄对外政策中地缘政治与地缘经济因素互动着,这成为后冷战时期俄罗斯对外政策的特点。     

俄罗斯发展外贸的政策和措施

自俄罗斯独立以来,俄政府虽出台了一系列优惠政策鼓励外贸发展,但由于国际和国内形势的不断变化,俄罗斯外贸一直没有走上合理发展的轨道,存在着大量的问题亟待解决。俄罗斯应该调整现行外贸政策,采取有效的措施,借助即将入世的有利条件,改变单一的能源外贸的被动局面,促进外贸的发展。     

俄罗斯的人口现状与普京新方针的制定

普京第 2次就任总统后,在其就职演说及随后向国会所做的致辞中,制定了发展经济、提高居民福利水平、消除贫困和军队的现代化等国家新的发展目标。俄罗斯人口的数量、密度、性别、民族构成及劳动力潜力的现状等人口因素对普京新方针带来了很大的影响。     

Democracy promotion between the “political” and the “developmental” approach: US and German policies towards Belarus

Following the end of the East–West conflict, the global spread of liberal democracy became an important strategic objective in world politics. Primarily, the foreign policy of the US and EU (states) demonstrated the relevance of democracy promotion abroad. While Western democracies' policy objectives regarding democracy promotion go well together, an obvious difference between their approaches in this area has often been shown: a largely “political” approach of the US vs a “developmental” one of European states. Accordingly, this article focuses on recent tendencies in democracy promotion by comparing US and German policies in the European post-Soviet space in order to investigate the expression of both approaches in a strategically important region. It thereby analyses the pivotal case of Belarus, which presents a great challenge to democracy promoters. The study concludes that external democracy promotion in that part of the world does not show a clear differentiation between the two approaches, and suggests a few potential explanations to be explored in future research.     

俄罗斯的欧洲安全政策:从普京到"梅普组合"

普京时期俄罗斯的欧洲安全政策可以称之为"回归欧洲"政策。尽管普京执政期间该政策取得了一定的成果,但并没有达到预期的战略目标。新的领导核心"梅普组合"形成后,对其欧洲安全政策进行一系列的调整。未来俄罗斯的欧洲安全政策将以追求国家安全和欧洲安全事务平等发言权为目标建构其欧洲安全政策,从战略退缩走向积极防御,将重建"俄控区",运用经济手段,加强对欧洲国家的影响。     

俄罗斯的科技资源及对外科技合作政策研究

俄罗斯科技资源丰富,拥有数目庞大的高素质科研人员队伍,并在众多科技领域保持着世界领先的地位。世界各国对俄罗斯的科技资源都非常重视,通过给予优厚报酬、提供良好科研条件等种种方式,吸引俄罗斯科技人员到本国工作。俄罗斯的科技优势主要表现在基础研究与高新技术领域,在军工与航天技术方面,处于世界领先地位,近几年在医药与生物技术以及民用技术等方面都有很大发展。研究俄罗斯的科技资源及对外科技合作政策对于加强中俄之间的科技合作与发展意义重大。     

The ‘Modi Wave’: Behind the Results of the 2014 General Elections in India

Narendra Modi’s spectacular victory over Congress in the 2014 Indian general elections was made possible by many factors. However, the main and overarching cause of Modi’s victory was the process which, starting in 2009 with the backing of the Indian corporate sector, built up the image of Modi as a kind of fearless and unblemished hero who, having raised his home state, Gujarat, to an extraordinary level of economic development, was now in a position to replicate the same feat at the all-India level. ‘Modi’s legend’ first conquered the middle class’ imagination and, then, was spread among the masses and, transversally, among first-time voters by that same middle class, with the help of RSS volunteers. Thus, a juggernaut was created and deployed with devastating effects, not only against Congress but, as shown by the cases of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, against some of India’s strongest regional parties.     

俄罗斯北极资源开发政策的新框架

俄罗斯为实现北极利益最大化,以扇形原则、先占原则和自然延伸原则为法律依据主张对北极资源行使主权控制。扇形原则因缺乏国际法论据而受到国际社会的反对,但俄罗斯基于国家利益需要不会放弃扇形原则的主张,并以自然延伸原则巩固对北极资源的控制权,这种权利是经济属性的主权权利并受到国际法的严格限制,只能依据科学证明来争取北极大陆架资源拥有权。同时,俄罗斯积极采用共同开发政策对北极资源进行权利控制,通过与相关国家签订临时协议拥有对北极争议区自然资源的开采权,这些对非北冰洋国家和《海洋法公约》将产生重大影响。国际社会有必要对俄罗斯北极资源开发政策高度重视,通过现有法律途径承担起维护人类共同继承财产的责任。     

Whose legitimacy? The EU and Russia in contest for the eastern neighbourhood

The impact of external actors on political change in the European neighbourhood has mostly been examined through the prism of elite empowerment through externally offered incentives. The legitimacy of external policies has received less scrutiny, both with regard to liberal powers promoting democracy and illiberal powers preventing democracy. This article investigates the conflicting notions of legitimate political governance that underpin the contest between the European Union (EU) and Russia in the Eastern neighbourhood. It proposes four mechanisms of external soft influence that take into account the EU’s and Russia’s actorness and the structural power of their norms of political governance, and consider their effects on domestic actors and societal understandings of appropriate forms of political authority. It finally traces the EU’s and Russia’s soft influence on political governance in Ukraine. It maintains that through shaping the domestic understandings of legitimate political authority and reinforcing the domestic political competition, the EU and Russia have both left a durable imprint on Ukraine’s uneven political path.     

黑龙江省走向俄罗斯市场的对策研究

对俄经贸合作在黑龙江省对外贸易合作中占十分重要的地位 ,对黑龙江省开放型经济的发展具有较强的牵动作用。从黑龙江省的产业结构特点、地缘优势及对俄经贸合作的实际出发 ,走向俄罗斯应是黑龙江省实施“走出去”战略的首选方向。主要合作领域应是石油天然气资源、森林资源的联合开发及农业合作。增加对俄投资、扩大承包工程和劳务输出规模、鼓励个体私营企业赴俄开展合作是今后一个时期黑龙江省走向俄罗斯的重要举措     

Management and Mismanagement of Diversity: The Case of Ethnic Conflict and State‐Building in the Arab World

The European Union has a unique opportunity to develop a positive strategy towards Ukraine. A pro-EU government is now in power in Kyiv, there is a revived civil society pressing for democratic reforms and the actions by Russia have both reinforced Ukraine’s pro-West line and led to the priority given Moscow being questioned by some member states. It is therefore essential to grant Ukraine a membership perspective to strengthen this trend and encourage Kyiv to confront and overcome the basic problems that face the country.     

俄国割占黑龙江、乌苏里江地区后对华人暂时的宽容策略探析

按照中俄《瑷珲条约》和中俄《北京条约》,中国黑龙江以北、乌苏里江以东百万平方公里的土地正式划归俄国。此后,虽然俄国政府实行了一系列鼓励移民迁居此地的优惠政策,但迁居这一地区的农业移民的数量并不大。因此,俄国当局最初被迫对无论是居住在这一地区的中国人,还是从邻国新流入的人都采取了暂时的宽容策略。     

俄罗斯的独联体劳动移民及相关问题分析

随着独联体经济一体化进程的逐步推进,劳动移民已成为独联体内部移民的主流,且劳动移民的流动具有单向性,即主要流向俄罗斯。俄罗斯境内独联体劳动移民规模的不断扩大引发了一系列经济和社会问题,独联体劳动移民问题成为困扰俄罗斯的一大难题。俄罗斯对独联体劳动移民的接收与拒绝的矛盾心态将构成其对独联体劳动移民政策的基础,限制性劳动移民政策将是其具体表现形式,且限制的内容将有所扩大。