Drinking and driving: Detecting the “dark figure” of compliance

The “dark figure” of undetected alcohol-impaired driving in the United States is acknowledged to be very high. However, this “dark figure” may lead to premature pessimism about the prospects for deterrence unless there is a countervailing estimate of “the other dark figure”—the rate of compliance with the drinking-driving laws under conditions of negligible arrest risk. This was a feasibility study in the use of survey data (N = 1,401) to identify patterns of compliance on the last drinking occasion as a function of social roles as drivers and passengers. A small but statistically significant proportion of U.S. drivers took these steps to reduce alcohol-impaired driving: reduction of drinking before driving, allocation of the driving role to low volume drinkers, and relinquishment of the driving role to an alternate driver after heavy drinking. There was no evidence for the selective use of public transportation as a means for diverting heavy drinkers from alcohol-impaired driving.     

The legal control of drunken driving: A comment on methodological concerns in assessing deterrent effectiveness

Appearing in this volume are papers by Votey and Phillips, Ray, and Votey that raise basic questions about the effectiveness of efforts to reduce drunken driving through legal controls implemented in the criminal justice system. The primary issues of extent, source, and duration of any effect are raised by those authors. This paper discusses the concern for deterrence expressed by Phillips, et al., and particularly focuses on some methodological problems in demonstrating the deterrent effectiveness of criminal sanctions on drunken driving.     

A STRUCTURAL MODEL OF DRINKING AND DRIVING: ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION,SOCIAL NORMS,AND MORAL COMMITMENTS*

A structural model based upon data from a random sample of 1,000 U.S. drivers accounted for 56% of the variation in alcohol-impaired driving, with total monthly alcohol consumption as the strongest predictor. Significant contributions of age, sex, peer group values, and preference for beer suggested the operation of socialization to group norms. There was a substantial contribution of personal moral commitment against drinking and driving. However, there was no significant inhibitory influence of legal knowledge and perceived arrest risk. These findings are consistent with Andenaes's view that general deterrence should be more broadly construed to include the moral component as well as the fear component of the law     

Effects of administrative ignition interlock license restrictions on drivers with multiple alcohol offenses

This study investigated, under real-world conditions, whether a statewide 2-year administrative ignition interlock license restriction program in Maryland was effective in reducing subsequent alcohol-related traffic violations among multiple offenders and whether any reductions in recidivism could be maintained after the program ended and interlock license restrictions were removed. A total of 1,927 drivers eligible for relicensure were randomly assigned to either the 2-year interlock license restriction program or the normal and customary sanctions afforded multiple offenders in Maryland. Recidivism was defined as incurring a subsequent alcohol-impaired driving violation during the 2-year intervention or 2-year postintervention periods. Compared to the control group, participation in the interlock license restriction program reduced drivers’ hazard (or risk) of a subsequent alcohol-impaired driving offense by a statistically significant 36% during the 2-year intervention, 26% during the 2-year postintervention period, and 32% during the entire 4-year study period. This investigation of interlock program effectiveness is the first to report significantly lower recidivism among the interlock group than its control group after the ignition interlock license restriction program ended. Possible reasons for this novel finding and areas for future research are discussed.     

Delinquency and alcohol-impaired driving among young males: A longitudinal study

The present study assessed how the trajectory of delinquency affects the growth curve of alcohol-impaired driving using three-waves of data collected from the Buffalo Longitudinal Survey of Young Men (BLSYM). Using the structural equation modeling method, latent growth modeling was utilized to assess four age cohorts of sixteen, seventeen, eighteen, and nineteen years of age at the first wave. The data indicated that the growth rate of delinquency significantly and positively affects the growth rate of alcohol-impaired driving for the respondents who were sixteen at the first wave. The growth rate of drinking was also significantly and positively associated with the growth rate of alcohol-impaired driving for this age cohort. Although the growth rate of delinquency had no significant effect on the growth rate of alcohol-impaired driving for the age cohort which was seventeen at Wave 1, the growth rates of both drinking and drug use did affect for this age cohort. The data, however, showed that alcohol-impaired driving had a significant increase across the waves for the eighteen year old cohort, but there was no significant variation in the rate across respondents. Finally, for the nineteen year old cohort there was no significant increase in alcohol-impaired driving across the waves, and also no significant variation of the growth rate of alcohol-impaired driving across the respondents. These findings indicated that interventions focused on reducing delinquency, alcohol and drug use by sixteen and seventeen year old male adolescents will also reduce their alcohol-impaired driving.     

Drunk driving and the ecological fallacy: Comments on a paper by Phillips,Ray, and Votey

Phillips, Ray, and Votey (1984a) used a model of traffic casualties incorporating three independent variables—miles driven, rainfall, and alcohol consumption. They applied it to British data to attempt to determine (1) whether the British Road Safety Act of 1967 had an impact on road casualties and (2) the relative contribution of the three variables to road casualties. They accomplished the first objective using interrupted time series analysis, but fell victim to the ecological fallacy in their interpretation of the second.     

Driving under the influence of toluene

Toluene is the most common volatile used for sniffing among adolescents. During 1983-1987, 114 drivers were arrested in Norway with blood toluene concentrations (BTCs) greater than 10 microM. Only four of these drivers were women. The age range was 15-34 years, and the mean age was 21. The mean BTC was 109 microM. There was no simple relation between blood toluene concentration and degree of impairment, however, most drivers with BTCs greater than 100 microM were considered as impaired or probably impaired by toluene. In a five year prospective study of rearrests among drivers arrested for driving after toluene sniffing, 12 out of 15 drivers were rearrested. They were responsible for 40 cases of suspected driving under influence of toluene, alcohol, or other drugs. The blood levels of toluene determined in this study must be regarded as minimum concentrations, since the toluene concentration fell rapidly in samples stored at 4 degrees C or 23 degrees C. Blood samples from drivers suspected of driving under influence of toluene must therefore be kept frozen.     

Prisons,Proportionality and Recent Penal History

A leading aim of the Criminal Justice Act 1991 was to install the principle of proportionality as the primary rationale for sentencing and to bring about a reduction in the use of imprisonment.  In the decade that followed the prison population in England and Wales rose steeply.  This article examines the reasons for the rising use of prison, in order to assess whether proportionality (or ‘just deserts’) was tried and failed.  It argues that in practice the proportionality principle was overwhelmed by other influences, and that deterrence and incapacitation were the main drivers of the increasing use of imprisonment.  The article goes on to argue that proportionality theories have within them the resources to produce penal moderation, notably the ‘drowning out’ argument, the human rights argument, and decrementalism.  The article concludes by rejecting the claim that proportionality theories are likely in practice to result in escalating punishment.     

Identifying “deterrable” offenders: Implications for research on deterrence

This article outlines a theoretical framework that distinguishes three forms of responsiveness to legal sanction threats: acute conformist, deterrable, and incorrigible. It then investigates the implications of the framework with data from a perceptual deterrence survey administered to 412 university students. The findings suggest the preeminent empirical regularity in deterrence research—that the deterrent effect of the certainty of punishment far exceeds that of the severity of punishment—may be overstated. An analysis confined to deterrable offenders suggests that the severity effect (relative to the certainty effect) may exceed that reported in extant research.     

Direct deterrence—An analysis of the effectiveness of police patrol and other crime prevention technologies

A new concept of deterrence useful to the analysis of crime control strategies is proposed—direct deterrence. Models of police patrol offered by Blumstein, Larson, Elliot, and Sardino and their utility to the analysis of police direct deterrence are discussed. An analysis is performed that develops, first, the relationship between the use of a crime prevention technology and the amount of direct deterrence provided and, second, the relationship between criminal activity and the application of direct deterrence.     

Alcohol-Impaired Driving in Norway and Sweden: Another Look at "The Scandinavian Myth"

Ross's (1975) assessment of the Scandinavian drinking-and-driving laws was a pivotal paper in the international literature because, in many ways, Norway and Sweden offer a critical test of the "tough approach" to deterring alcohol- impaired drivers. The present review raises some methodological and philosophical questions about Ross's approach to the Scandinavian data and examines four types of indirect evidence for deterrence in Norway and Sweden. While no conclusive evidence for deterrence could be identified, there was internal consistency in the pattern of circumstantial evidence pointing to a workable system of external restraints and internal controls in Scandinavia; and this pattern of evidence contrasted sharply with that obtained in the U.S.     

Competing Normative Frameworks and the Limits of Deterrence Theory: Comments on Baker and Griffith's Ensuring Corporate Misconduct

This essay reviews the contributions to deterrence theory that Tom Baker and Sean Griffith make in Ensuring Corporate Misconduct (2010) and argues that their work highlights the limits of deterrence theory for shaping corporate conduct. Baker and Griffith extend the deterrence framework to account for the mediating effect of third‐party institutions, like insurers, on deterrence calculations, and they suggest how corporate governance decisions, such as what type of insurance coverage to purchase, encode signals about corporations' compliance motivations and capacity. Although these insights might prove useful for enhancing the efficacy of deterrence regimes aimed at white‐collar crime and other types of corporate misconduct, they suggest the difficulty of shaping corporate conduct that is influenced not only by the norms embodied in securities law, but also by the alternative normative system of shareholder value maximization. I discuss the failure of deterrence theory to address adequately noncompliant behavior that springs not solely from material self‐interest, but from adherence to an alternative set of norms, and I explore the possibility of viewing corporate compliance as a norm‐change project.     

The deterrent effect of the perceived certainty and severity of punishment: A review of the evidence and issues

This paper critically examines the role of the perceived certainty and severity of punishment in deterring criminal/deviant behavior. A thorough review of the perceptual deterrence literature from 1972–1986 is provided which indicates that cross-sectional correlations between perceptions of sanction threats and self-reported criminal/deviant behavior are moderately negative for diverse offenses, consistent with the deterrence doctrine. It is noted that rather than expressing the deterrent effect, these correlations probably indicate the effect of prior behavior on currently held perceptions—the experiential effect. In addition, since in many instances the reported correlations express simple bivariate relationships, the association may be spurious rather than causal. When researchers employing panel designs have estimated the deterrent relationship with variables in their correct temporal ordering and with more fully specified causal models, the moderate inverse effect for both perceived certainty and severity disappears. Although this would argue strongly for the continued utilization of longitudinal data and fully developed models of deterrence/social control, recent commentaries have raised questions about this line of perceptual deterrence research. These arguments are assessed and an agenda for future deterrence research suggested.     

INTEGRATING CELERITY,IMPULSIVITY, AND EXTRALEGAL SANCTION THREATS INTO A MODEL OF GENERAL DETERRENCE: THEORY AND EVIDENCE*

We propose a model that integrates the extralegal consequences from conviction and impulsivity into the traditional deterrence framework. The model was tested with 252 college students, who completed a survey concerning drinking and driving. Key findings include the following: (1) Although variation in sanction certainty and severity predicted offending, variation in celerity did not; (2) the extralegal consequences from conviction appear to be at least as great a deterrent as the legal consequences; (3) the influence of sanction severity diminished with an individual's “present‐orientation”; and (4) the certainty of punishment was far more robust a deterrent to offending than was the severity of punishment.     

Avoiding blame when violating traffic rules: the development and validation of the justifications of traffic violations scale

Traffic norms violations are the most common form of law breaking. Our aim was to investigate a factor that might contribute to the massive disobedience to traffic laws, namely drivers’ use of self-legitimization strategies that allow them to transgress them without paying the psychological costs that would follow, such as regret or shame. Using the framework of the self-exoneration mechanisms described by the Social Cognitive Theory, we developed a measure assessing drivers’ strategies of justification of their traffic violations. Across two studies, we tested the psychometric proprieties of the Justifications of Traffic Violations scale (JTVs), its factorial structure, and its construct, external and incremental validity. Results showed that drivers self-exonerate when transgressing traffic laws predominantly through four strategies (Minimizing risks, Displacement of responsibility, Personal needs and Outcome – based justification) that are addressed by the JTVs and that construe one’s refraining from committing deviant driving behaviours as unnecessary, impossible or undesirable. The JTVs and each of its four specific cognitive mechanisms were found to be positively related to the most maladaptive driving styles, as well as to self-reported traffic offences and accidents, suggesting that these self-exonerating strategies favour the instilment and maintenance of habitual deviant behaviours on the road.     

Race, driving, and police organization: Modeling moving and nonmoving traffic stops with citizen self-reports of driving practices

A rapidly growing body of police scholarship has found evidence of racial disparities in traffic stop patterns using police-generated data. Despite the empirical consensus, the question of whether race inappropriately influences traffic stop patterns remains open, largely as a result of methodological weaknesses. The current article helps to address this issue by employing self-report data about citizens' driving practices and traffic stops. It presents a series of models that predict the likelihood of a self-reported traffic stop disaggregated by police organizational type and the reason for the stop. Results suggest that moving and nonmoving driving practices are associated with the likelihood of police stops for moving and nonmoving reasons, respectively. As expected, differences between local police and state police models emerge. Finally, Black drivers and younger drivers are especially vulnerable to traffic stop risk for nonmoving stops by local police, even after controlling for driving behaviors.     

Deterrence and social control: Rethinking the relationship

Until recent years, the operationalization of the deterrence concept has been largely legal in nature. That is, deterrence was defined in terms of certainty and celerity of arrest and severity of sanction. Contemporary research has called this narrow viewpoint into question, pointing out that legal factors are only part of the range of social-control mechanisms. One of the more important of these reformulations was found to have an analytical flaw which could have easily affected the results (Meier and Johnson, 1977). The present study corrects the analysis problems of this previous study and upholds the findings that, for a sample of adult Texas residents, extralegal factors are of more import for determining marijuana use than traditional legal deterrence. Since both legal and extralegal factors are products of the social context, deterrence may be appropriately incorporated into contemporary social- control theories.     

Study of rearrests for drunken driving in Norway

The National Institute of Forensic Toxicology (NIFT) in Oslo receives blood samples from all Norwegian drivers suspected of driving under the influence of alcohol. It is well known that a large proportion of the arrested drunken drivers are repeat offenders. The purposes of this investigation was to find the arrest rates (the percentage of subjects arrested once or more) among drunken drivers followed retrospectively and prospectively during the 11-year period 1984–1994 and the probability of `abstaining' from becoming a recidivist during the 9 years subsequent to the year of selection. By examining the rearrest rates during the 3 following years for drivers selected in 1986, 1989, 1991 and 1992 we tried to look for major effects due to the change in the Norwegian road traffic act of 1988. Altogether 45% of the selected drunken drivers were arrested two or more times. Totally the `9-year survival rate' (i.e. not being rearrested) was 60% for drivers with blood alcohol concentration (BAC) selected from the interval 0.06–0.09%; 56% from BAC 0.13–0.16% and 51% from 0.26–0.29%. The data were further evaluated with respect to frequency of rearrest during 3 years after selection, and was around 30% in 1986, while it was lower for drivers selected in 1992 (19%). An explanation for the reduction in rearrest rate may be the changes in the road traffic act which took place in 1988.     

Are police-reported driving while Black data a valid indicator of the race and ethnicity of the traffic law violators police stop? A negative answer with minor qualifications

Are police-reported driving while Black data a valid indicator of the race and ethnicity of the drivers police stop? This research answered that question by advancing the first multivariate analysis of race and ethnicity missingness in the traffic stop data reported by Boston police during April and May of 2001. The most important multivariate story the data tell was that race and ethnicity missingness was significantly nonrandom on multiple dimensions, including the second month of data collection, for drivers living in zip codes with above average and average people of color, for drivers living in zip codes with above average and average poor people, and for drivers whose stop ended in a ticket. The results therefore supported a clear answer to a fundamentally important question about the validity of the driving while Black data reported by police. Based upon the present research and with minor qualifications, police-reported driving while Black data were not valid because they underestimated the frequency with which police stop drivers of color.     

Facing the Consequences

Many philosophers endorse deterrence justifications of legal punishment. According to these justifications, punishment is justified at least in part because it deters offenses. These justifications rely on empirical assumptions, e.g., that non-punitive enforcement can’t deter or that it can’t deter enough. I’ll challenge these assumptions and argue that extant deterrence justifications of legal punishment fail. I begin by isolating, in a simplified form, important claims common to deterrence justifications. I then endorse an uncontroversial claim about punishment and explore its implications for enforcement. These implications undermine the simple versions of the deterrence claims. I then evaluate several modifications of the claims to see whether they can be improved upon. I argue that they can’t easily be improved upon. In the process, I examine contemporary deterrence research and argue that it provides no support for deterrence justifications. I conclude by considering objections.