The Effects of Local Government Consolidation on Turnout: Evidence from a Quasi‐Experiment in Switzerland

In the last decades, municipal mergers have been one major element of local government reforms in Switzerland and beyond. In this article, we describe and analyze the political effects of this development. We use a quasi‐experimental setting to test the impact of municipal mergers on electoral participation. We find that in merged municipalities, the decrease in turnout is significantly stronger than in non‐merged municipalities. Further, the effect is more pronounced in relatively small localities. There is a temporal dimension to this effect—that is, turnout drops mainly in the first election after the first merger, but not so much after the second or third merger. Hence, the study provides a skeptical yet differentiated perspective on the democratic consequences of municipal mergers and points to further research avenues to develop a more comprehensive understanding of local government consolidation.     

The Disappearance of Political Cultures in Italy

Abstract

Following the collapse of the Italian party system in 1994, post-war Italian political cultures have all but exhausted themselves, if not disappeared completely. First, the Ulivo (Olive Tree) in 1996–1998, then, the Partito Democratico in 2007–2008, attempted without much conviction to formulate a new political culture combining several traditions and heritages. This article will explore how and why the PD failed in its attempts. It will also look at the status of other political cultures, especially the federalist and the liberal, supposedly relaunched by Berlusconi in 1994. It will conclude with some reflections on the appearance of personalist parties and leaders’ narratives and provide an assessment of the present situation with specific reference to the attempt by the PD leader, Matteo Renzi, to give birth to a so-called ‘Partito della Nazione’. Is there any future for new political cultures in the Italian political system? Will the Italian party system ever be revived?     

韩国政党与政党体系变迁动因初探

韩国政党体系的变迁具有鲜明的特点.自1948年制宪始,韩国政党政治的形态就呈现出宗派政治、帮派政治的特征,诸多政党在韩国政治舞台上不断出现和湮灭,韩国的政党政治未能发展到制度化的阶段.目前,韩国虽然实现了从威权统治向民主政治的转型,但由于长期受到传统思想、政治文化和南北分裂态势的影响,政党的变动依然十分频繁.本文旨在从环境因素、政治文化因素和制度因素的角度探析韩国政党与政党体系变迁的原因.     

The Electoral Consequences of Direct Political Action: Evidence from Brazil

Democracy affords citizens the ability to influence policy through participation in elections and through direct political action. Though previous scholarship evaluates the impact each strategy has on outcomes, little if any work exists that examines how one strategy, direct action, affects success in the other, elections. This study analyzes the relationship between land occupations and the electoral success of the Workers' Party in Brazil between 1996 and 2006. It finds that the relationship varies in presidential and mayoral elections depending on income inequality and incumbency. Once the PT captures the presidential office in 2002, these effects disappear, suggesting that the effect of political protest also depends on who is in office.     

Compensatory Voting in Direct Legislation. Evidence from Switzerland

In elections, voters sometimes compensate for post‐election bargaining processes by electing parties that are more extreme than themselves. We investigate compensatory voting in direct democracy. Our goals are to develop and test a measure of compensatory voting in direct legislation and assess its extent of compensatory voting. Empirically, we draw on the case of Switzerland, a country with frequent popular votes. We operationalize compensatory voting as voting ‘yes’ on a popular initiative in spite of endorsing arguments that speak against this initiative, under the condition of being well‐informed about the initiative. Using data from post‐ballot surveys on 17'570 individuals having voted on 63 popular initiatives in the period 1993 to 2015, our analysis shows that compensatory voting has not significantly increased in Switzerland in this period.     

泰国政党格局的转型与泰爱泰党的亲民务实路线

2005年选举后,泰国的政党格局已基本完成了从多党林立向一党独大的转型.本文认为,曾一度活跃在泰国政坛上的众多中小型政党,之所以普遍存在政党中期衰退现象,其问题在于过分依赖庇护制关系而忽视了选民基础的建设;而泰爱泰党的迅速崛起,缘于其贯彻落实了重点争取中下层选民的亲民务实路线,从而发展并巩固了选民基础,摆脱了庇护制政党的发展困境.     

The Impact of Postal Voting on Participation: Evidence for Switzerland

Many countries are forging ahead with convenient balloting methods, in particular electronic and postal voting, in order to re‐engage voters. In this paper, we test whether the cost reductions through postal voting increase turnout. The empirical analysis is based on a newly collected data set on the introduction of postal voting in Swiss cantons. We take advantage of the unique fact that voting by mail was introduced at different times across cantons. This allows identifying the impact of postal voting on turnout, independent of time, issue and canton‐specific effects. The estimated average effect on turnout is roughly 4.1 percentage points for an average turnout of 43 percent between 1970 and 2005.     

A Question of Priorities: Candidate Selection in Estonian Political Parties

This article addresses political-party organization in Estonia, especially candidate selection. Its first objective is to describe the ways in which the main parties chose their candidates before the 2011 parliamentary election. A second objective is to evaluate those procedures in light of expectations generated by established theory. The focus is on two conditions: the institutional framework, particularly the electoral system, and the relative youth of Estonian democracy. The evidence confirms these expectations only partially, which suggests that an individual party’s ideological, organizational and strategic circumstances, in addition to structural and institutional conditions, are critical to understanding why it performs this basic function as it does.     

Politicians without Parties and Parties without Politicians: The Foibles of the Peruvian Political Class, 2000–2006*

Since the collapse of the Fujimori regime in November 2000, the Peruvian political system has experienced considerable turbulence, which has focused attention on the capabilities and comportment of the country’s elected politicians. While some analysts hold that ‘there is no political class in Peru’, others maintain that since Fujimori’s demise a ‘resurrection’ has occurred in the fortunes of both parties and politicians who occupied centre stage during the 1980s. This article examines these claims, arguing that despite appearances to the contrary, the core of Peru’s political class operates in a rational and responsible fashion.     

The Political Rationale of Administrative Reforms: Parliamentary Support of Output Control in Switzerland

Sufficient political support is a sine qua non of comprehensive administrative reforms. However, while the pros and cons of administrative reform measures have been extensively discussed in theory and research, only little is known about the political process which determines whether or not administrative reforms are implemented at all. Against this background, the article aims at throwing light on the politicians' backgrounds and mindsets which account for their attitude towards administrative reforms. Referring to the theories of voting behaviour, socio-structural, socio-psychological, and rational choice factors by Swiss members of parliament are tested for their impact on the attitude towards new output control policies as part of wider administrative reforms. Findings help us understand the different fates of administrative reforms in the legislative process, and they make it possible to draw some essential conclusions for the design and implementation of future administrative reforms. In consequence of this, the article's findings are a significant contribution for the study of the political rationale of administrative reforms as well as the characteristics of political rationale in general.     

Political Trust and Distrust in Switzerland: A Normative Analysis

Abstract: Based on data from a Swiss survey study (N = 769), this research investigated individual‐level determinants of trust in political authorities from a social psychological perspective. The study demonstrates that individuals with a low level of education who feel materially at risk and politically powerlessness expressed the lowest levels of political trust. This relationship was explained with differential endorsement of normative beliefs. A mediation analysis reveals that normative perceptions of Swiss society as being threatened by immorality and growing social inequalities accounted for the effect of perceived material risk on political distrust. The rejection of a duty‐based citizenship norm (voting), in turn, mediated the impact of political powerlessness on distrust. Political orientation was unrelated to political trust. These findings illustrate the cognitive underpinnings of political alienation and suggest that perceived lack of political agency and perceived risk of social declassification are key factors in understanding political distrust.     

Local Politics and Political Power in Russia: The Case of Yaroslavl'

An American political scientist surveys local political reforms in Russia as they were proposed in 1988-1989 and implemented in 1990-1991. Using the city and provincial governments of Yaroslavl' as a case study, the author examines whether old political elites have shown themselves capable of adapting to the new political rules and retaining influence over local decision making. The paper then assesses differences in the strength of this influence in rural and urban areas and consequences of the power struggle between old and new political elites for Russian President Yel'tsin's reform program. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: P20, H1.     

Rituals of Power and Political Parties in Morocco: Limited Elections as Positional Strategies

The article argues that the monarchy's religious authority and its use of rituals of power limit the ability of political parties to contest the monarchy's legitimacy. It goes beyond most institutionalist accounts of authoritarian persistence by exploring the micro-dynamics of symbolic power and the extent to which the regime's ritualization of power creates a political culture conducive to the monarchy's supremacy in the socio-political realm, thus promoting regime stability in Morocco. These rituals have been institutionalized in the political system and have become part of the political discourse in Morocco. The monarchy's religious authority and its use of rituals of power impede the ability political parties to mobilize and to penetrate Moroccan society, and force them to adopt positional strategies in limited elections.     

Anti-Partyism in German Independent Local Lists: Empirical Insights from a Membership Study

In the past few decades, independent local lists in German municipalities have become serious competitors to political parties. However, despite their widespread presence and success, party researchers have largely ignored this phenomenon. Empirical evidence concerning the attitudes of their members towards political parties is rare. Thus far, it remains unclear whether their self-described image as non-parties or anti-parties is restricted to the sphere of local politics or accompanies a general rejection of parties in federal politics. First, the article conceptualises anti-partyism and proposes an analytical distinction between their intensity and related political level. It then analyses the consequences of different patterns of local politics and group characteristics as well as individual determinants to explain the degree of anti-party sentiment. This study improves our understanding of independents and whether they promote party democracy or are a product of political dissatisfaction. Based on a cross-sectional postal survey, multi-level regression models are used to test the hypotheses. The results show that anti-partyism is particularly strong towards party politics at the local level, whereas the general legitimacy of party democracy is not questioned in federal politics.     

Populist Communication and Publicity: An Empirical Study of Contextual Differences in Switzerland

Abstract: This study analyzes the context‐dependency of populist communication and asks whether there are variations in populist communication for representatives of different kinds of parties. In contrast to previous research on European populism, which mostly considers only the right‐wing, this study includes the entire scope of political parties; thus allowing for the possibility of the diffusion of populism in contemporary politics. The empirical contribution is a multilevel analysis of speeches in non‐public and public forums (closed parliamentary committees, open parliamentary floors, and the talk show ‘Arena’) on immigration and asylum amendments in Switzerland. A so‐called populist party, the Swiss People’s Party, played a significant role in drafting the legislation. Analysis reveals that a) different public settings influence populist communication differently; b) a non‐populist party, the Christian‐democrats, employs more populist communication on average than any other party and its populism is employed more consistently across contexts than that of the Swiss People’s Party; c) but when speaking in media forms, the Swiss People’s Party employs substantially more populist communication than any other party. Thus, the type of public forum does not uniformly contribute to higher levels of populist communication, but rather the effect of forum type varies substantially by party.     

90年代菲律宾政党的变化及其特点

步入九十年代 ,菲律宾政治渐趋稳定 ,但政党活动十分活跃。一些在全国影响较大的政党面对新的情况 ,进行了力量整合 ,政纲调整 ,也进行了新的权力角逐 ,在政治发展中留下了鲜明的印迹。随着政治和经济格局的变化 ,菲政党政治也呈现出新的特点 ,这是菲律宾政治中值得注意的新趋向。     

The PDS in Western Germany: An Empirical Study of PDS Local Politicians

Even though its leadership continues to insist that the PDS is a national party of the left, it is de facto an eastern German regional party. In the last several years, however, the PDS has found some measure of success at the local level in western Germany, where it now claims over 100 seats in local parliaments. Emboldened by this success, party leaders have suggested that the PDS-West is gradually 'putting down roots' in the old states of Germany, thus increasing the party's electoral chances there. This article, based on an empirical study carried out from September 2000 to March 2001, looks at the experiences of the PDS at the local level in western Germany. It finds that although many of the problems identified by scholars as standing in the way of PDS electoral success in the West are very much in evidence at the local level as well, the party has nevertheless made enormous strides in gaining political expertise, developing partnerships with local groups, and, in general, becoming more attractive to voters. Whether the PDS can translate these positive experiences above and beyond the local level remains open to debate. Nevertheless the opportunity is there.     

How Adenauer Lost Power: Understanding Leadership Rivalry and Succession Conflict in Political Parties

In this article, we reconstruct and interpret the Adenauer–Erhard leadership rivalry in the CDU. This leadership struggle culminated in Erhard replacing Adenauer in 1963 and Adenauer's continued ‘guerrilla’ warfare against Erhard's leadership, which was one of the contributing factors to the brevity of Erhard's tenure. The case is of intrinsic historical interest but also provides a muster for recent and ongoing leadership succession predicaments in governing parties in Germany and elsewhere. The article presents a conceptual framework of party leadership succession, and zooms in on the (mis)match between the tactical choices made by the incumbent leader and key succession candidates as a key factor explaining the nature and impact of successions. The framework is then applied to the case, and the implications of the findings are placed in a broader comparative context.     

The Political Side of Consociationalism Reconsidered: Switzerland between a Polarized Parliament and Delicate Government Collegiality

This paper builds upon the concept of “coalescent elite behaviour” which is crucial in consociational theory, but contested regarding its actual conceptualization. Contrary to Lijphart's (1968) original assumption that elites are generally committed to an “overarching cooperation”, we hypothesize that institutional venues must be taken in account. Thus, the aim of this paper is twofold: Conceptually, we try to clarify the nature of “amicable agreement” regarding two core institutions (i.e. parliament, government), and regarding executive‐legislative relations. Empirically, we follow a two‐step empirical approach that combines a cross‐time comparison of the decision‐making process regarding the revision of the Swiss basic pension scheme (AHV) with a cross‐case assessment following Fischer's two‐dimensional typology. More generally, our findings serve to inductively refine the “political side” of consociationalism.     

The Explosive Combination of Inefficient Local Bureaucracies and Mining Production: Evidence from Localized Societal Protests in Peru

Although numerous scholars have analyzed the effects of natural resource extraction at the national level, few have explored it systematically at the local level. Focusing on Peru, where both mining production and local social protests have greatly increased in recent years and where a new tax has required mining companies to transfer revenue to subnational governments, this study explores the resource curse at the local level. In particular, why do protests arise mostly in the areas of natural resource extraction? Employing subnational data for Peru for the period 2004–9 and LAPOP survey data from 2010, the research confirms previous findings that social conflict is provoked by both the negative externalities of mining and the revenues from the new tax. The article further demonstrates that local bureaucratic capacity is a significant independent variable. Greater subnational bureaucratic capacity can ameliorate the pernicious societal effects of a local resource curse.