A nine-year follow-up study on the predictive validity of the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire for predicting violent and nonviolent recidivism

The effectiveness of the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ) in providing estimates for predicting violent and nonviolent recidivism over a 9-year period is examined. The SAQ is a quantitative risk/need instrument consisting of 72 items that compose eight subscales. There were 657 federally sentenced Canadian male offenders who completed the SAQ prior to their release and were followed up for 9 years (108 months) at 4-month intervals. Consistent with previous predictive studies, the results presented here demonstrate that the SAQ has adequate predictive validity.     

The significance of offending behavior for predicting sexual recidivism among sex offenders of various age groups

Based on a sample of 682 male sex offenders, this study investigated variables of the offending behavior for predicting sexual recidivism in different age groups. The sex offenders were allocated into four age groups. For each group, those characteristics of offending behavior showing a significant bivariate correlation with sexual recidivism were extracted. Using logistic regression, we then analyzed their incremental validity above and beyond a previously developed Crime Scene Behavior Risk (CBR)-Score, which measures the risk of sexual recidivism without taking into account the offenders' age (Dahle, Biedermann, Gallasch-Nemitz, & Janka, 2010). Age-specific offending behavior variables with incremental validity were combined with the general CBR-Score into age-specific scores and examined for their predictive accuracy. We also analyzed the extent in which these age-specific scores showed incremental validity above and beyond the Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 1999). For three of the four age groups, age-specific Crime Scene Behavior Risk-Scores could be determined which were incrementally valid above and beyond the Static-99. Predictive accuracy varied between AUC=.74 and AUC=.90 (r=.28 to r=.49) depending on age group. The results are discussed within context of recent findings on the latent dimensions of actuarial risk assessment variables.     

Cross-validation of the self-appraisal questionnaire: a tool for assessing violent and nonviolent recidivism with female offenders

The Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ) is a 72-item self-report measure designed to predict violent and nonviolent recidivism among adult male criminal offenders. It was administered to 91 female offenders incarcerated in Pennsylvania and 183 incarcerated in Singapore correctional systems. Results indicated that the SAQ has sound psychometric properties, with acceptable reliability and concurrent and predictive validity for assessing violent and nonviolent recidivism. There were no significant differences between the scores of African American and Asian offenders and the responses of the White offenders. Similar to the findings from male offenders, the present results provide some support for the validity of the SAQ in the prediction of violent and nonviolent recidivism risk among White, African American, and Asian female offenders.     

Female and male sex offenders: a comparison of recidivism patterns and risk factors

Few studies have empirically validated the assertion that female and male sex offenders are vastly different. Therefore, utilizing a matched sample of 780 female and male sex offenders in New York State, the current study explored differences and similarities of recidivism patterns and risk factors for the two offender groups. Results suggested that male sex offenders were significantly more likely than female sex offenders to be rearrested for both sexual and nonsexual offenses. However, limited differences in terms of risk factors between female and male sex offenders were found.     

The factors associated with criminal recidivism in Finnish male offenders: importance of neurocognitive deficits and substance dependence

Neurocognitive deficits and psychiatric disorders are often brought up as risk factors of recidivism. In this study, we investigated how neurocognitive and academic deficits and psychiatric disorders (including substance dependence) are associated with criminal recidivism and prison career among male offenders. In a health survey of Finnish prisoners, 72 sentenced male prisoners were examined in Turku prison using a neurocognitive test battery and psychiatric assessment including a standardized psychiatric interview (SCID-I, II). The neurocognitive and academic tests were chosen to assess domains of cognitive functioning and reading, spelling and mathematical skills. Our results showed that the combination of neurocognitive deficits and substance dependence was connected to recidivism. Axis I diagnosis (major mental disorders) and substance dependence were connected with neurocognitive and academic deficits. Moreover, first-time offenders had fewer neurocognitive deficits and Axis I disorders, less substance dependence and fewer personality disorders than those with several convictions. Rehabilitation of cognitive functions and academic skills, along with intervention for mental health problems and substance dependence could help to prevent the unfavourable circle of criminal career.     

The impact of sentencing options on recidivism among domestic violence offenders: A case study

Past domestic violence research has tended to focus on issues related to law enforcement responses. More recently, the focus has shifted to other components of the criminal justice system, such as prosecution and correctional responses, to determine the best way to reduce domestic violence. This project is a case study of 177 male convicted domestic violence offenders who were sentenced to one of five options: community corrections; jail; a suspended sentence; private counseling, a fine, or restitution; and advisement. The focus of this inquiry is on the likelihood of each sanction reducing future arrests and convictions for domestic violence. The results reveal that no one sanction is more effective than the other options. A draft of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Criminal Justice Association, Chattanooga, TN, 1999. The authors would like to thank the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and suggestions on an earlier version of this paper. This work stems from a project started by Chesterfield County and Melissa Gross to complete her Master of Social Work degree requirements. The primary authors of this piece are Jill A. Gordon and Laura J. Moriarty. The ordering of names are alphabetical after Melissa Gross.     

The PCL-R and violent recidivism in a prospective follow-up of a nationwide sample of female offenders

Psychopathy has been linked to violent reoffending in men, but the findings in women have been contradictory. The aim of this study was to examine the predictive validity of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) for violent recidivism in a nationwide sample of female violent offenders. The offenders (n = 48) had been assessed by the PCL-R and were followed after their release from prison or a psychiatric hospital. The average follow-up period was 8 years. Of the offenders, 16 (33%) had been reconvicted of a violent crime. Current findings of the performance indicators did not support the use of the PCL-R as a predictive instrument assessing risk of violent recidivism in females. The findings indicate that impulsivity plays a crucial role in female violent recidivism and that the PCL-R should be used with caution in risk assessment with female populations.     

A prospective analysis of juvenile male sex offenders: characteristics and recidivism rates as adults

This research assesses the recidivism rates of a sample of 300 registered male sex offenders who were juveniles at the time of their initial arrest for a sex offense. This sample is followed for 3 to 6 years after they reached adulthood; recidivism rates are assessed during their adulthood only. The typical juvenile is a 15-year-old Caucasian male who was arrested for sexual assault or indecency with a child. The majority of the victims are females with an average age of 8. Although only 13 are rearrested during the follow-up period for a sex offense, more than half of the sample is arrested at least once for a nonsexual offense. The results of a Cox regression indicate that victim age, offender age, and victim sex are significant predictors of recidivism during adulthood.     

Beyond static and dynamic risk factors: the incremental validity of release planning for predicting sex offender recidivism

Both desistance research and strengths-based approaches to offender rehabilitation suggest that attempts to reduce sex offender recidivism should attend to an offender's release environment. Recent research has demonstrated that better quality release planning is associated with reduced recidivism; however, whether release planning contributes significant incremental validity in predicting recidivism over and above static and dynamic risk factors is unclear. In the present study, release planning was retrospectively assessed for a sample of child molesters (n = 196) who had been released into the community following completion of a prison-based treatment program and its relative contribution to recidivism risk prediction was investigated. The average follow-up period was 11.08 years, during which 13.3% of the sample were convicted of a new sexual offence. Hierarchical Cox regression analyses showed that release planning contributed additional predictive validity for sexual recidivism after controlling for static and dynamic risk factors. Findings suggest that assessment of release planning might improve accuracy of sex offender risk assessments and that improved release planning should contribute to reductions in recidivism.     

The PCL: YV and recidivism in male and female juveniles: a follow-up into young adulthood

Adolescents, and most recently, adolescent females, have emerged as an important population in violence risk assessment and have sparked a debate regarding the downward and gendered extension of the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV). This article evaluates the differential prediction of the three and four-factor models of the PCL:YV for male (n=201) and female (n=55) juvenile offenders using a prospective four and one-half year follow-up (M=3 years) study. Both models of the PCL:YV were significant predictors for boys; however, contrary to findings from studies using shorter follow-up periods, the predictive power was due primarily to the behavioral features of psychopathy. The PCL:YV was not a significant predictor of non-violent or violent recidivism for girls. This study does not lend support for the use of the PCL:YV as a risk factor for girl offenders. More research is needed to understand the application of the psychopathy construct in youth, particularly in girls.     

Early traumatization and psychopathy in female and male juvenile offenders

Childhood traumatization is expected to have a significant impact on the development of antisocial and aggressive behavior in adulthood. Psychopathy as a syndrome that can predict future violent and aggressive behavior in adults is therefore believed to be associated with early traumatization. The association between early childhood victimization and violence might at least be mediated through psychopathy. The present study examined the relationship between early emotional, physical or sexual trauma and neglect and psychopathy in incarcerated delinquent female and male juveniles using the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ) and the Psychopathy Checklist—Youth Version (PCL-YV). A sample of detained adolescents (n = 185) was compared to adolescent students (n = 98). Also, gender differences were analyzed with respect to the association of trauma and psychopathy. As expected, our analyses revealed higher scores of traumatization in delinquent juveniles compared to school adolescents. Hypothesized relationships between physical traumatization and the PCL-YV total score could be confirmed among criminal boys, but not among delinquent girls. Results, therefore, indicated that an association exists between early physical, but also emotional traumatic experience and psychopathy in detained boys. In girls, however, other family-related variables, such as non-parental living arrangements, seemed to be more influential in developing the psychopathy syndrome than traumatization.     

Unintended consequences: experimental evidence for the criminogenic effect of prison security level placement on post-release recidivism

Most prison systems use quantitative instruments to classify and assign inmates to prison security levels commensurate to their level of risk. Bench and Allen (The Prison Journal 83(4):367-382, 2003) offer evidence that the assignment to higher security prisons produces elevated levels of misconduct independent of the individual’s propensity to commit misconduct. Chen and Shapiro (American Law and Economics Review, 2007) demonstrate that assignment to higher security level among inmates with the same classification scores increases post-release recidivism. Underlying both of these claims is the idea that the prison social environment is criminogenic. In this paper we examine the theoretical premises for this claim and present data from the only experiment that has been conducted that randomly assigns inmates to prison security levels and evaluates both prison misconduct and post-release recidivism. The experiment’s results show that inmates with a level III security classification who were randomly assigned to a security level III prison in the California prison system had a hazard rate of returning to prison that was 31% higher than that of their randomly selected counterparts who were assigned to a level I prison. Thus, the offenders’ classification assignments at admission determined their likelihood of returning to prison. There were no differences in the institutional serious misconduct rates of these same prisoners. These results are contradictory to a specific deterrence prediction and more consistent with peer influence and environmental strain theories. These results also raise important policy implications that challenge the way correctional administrators will have to think about the costs and benefits of separating inmates into homogeneous pools based on classification scores.

The modification of criminogenic factors on addicted offenders. The effectiveness of the Reasoning and Rehabilitation Program

At the Clinic of Forensic Psychiatry in Rostock, Germany, we treat addicted offenders in a closed psychiatric setting. In 2009 we implemented the "Reasoning and Rehabilitation Program" (R & R, Ross & Fabiano, 1986), a cognitive skills program, in our clinic. There are several international studies confirming the efficacy of this training in diminishing recidivism. We examined a sample of 31 inpatients randomly distributed among the experimental (R & R) and the control group. Most of the study participants had committed homicide or other serious violent offenses. Prisoners with schizophrenia, organic mental disorders and mental retardation were excluded from the study. The target skills were assessed by treating psychotherapists, primary nurses and by the patients themselves. Our findings indicated that problem-solving, awareness of consequences, social perspective-taking, cognitive style, the ability to learn by experience, and persistence in the experimental group were significantly improved. The awareness of consequences has changed significantly in the assessment of the treating psychotherapists, the primary nurses, and the offenders themselves. Our current data are similar to our recent work, where we found significant changes in mental flexibility, planning, and problem-solving and positively assessed tendencies in some skills (Wettermann et al., 2012, 2011). Verification of these findings in a larger sample would strengthen the research foundation for this important training to diminish prisoner recidivism.     

Arbitrary decision making in the absence of evidence: an examination of factors related to treatment selection and recidivism for female sexual offenders

ABSTRACT

As criminal justice professionals are asked to assign risk levels and treat females who sexually offend, identifying risk factors for recidivism prediction and treatment targets is important. Although the majority of risk and treatment studies have focused on males, general female offender research and developing research with female sex offenders both provide some evidence for possible factors related to sexual offending behaviour in women. The purpose of this study was to explore what possible factors were related to treatment selection in a sample of 506 females serving prison sentences for a sexual offense, and, in turn, to examine which factors predicted non-sexual and sexual recidivism. Results demonstrated that exploratory variables were significantly related to treatment selection, as opposed to variables previously supported in research. Furthermore, living with a significant other for more than two years, and prior sexual offending arrests predicted sexual recidivism, while decreased age and treatment participation predicted non-sexual recidivism. These findings indicate that while similarities between male and female sexual offenders exist, females still demonstrate gender-specific risk factors.     

Characteristics that predict firesetting in male and female mentally disordered offenders

Few studies have adequately explored the characteristics of male and female mentally disordered firesetters and compared these to those of non-firesetting mentally disordered offenders. Furthermore, there is a paucity of research examining the characteristics which can predict repeat firesetting within this population. The current study aimed to examine similarities and differences in the characteristics of (1) male and female mentally disordered firesetters, (2) male and female mentally disordered firesetters compared to non-firesetting offenders, and (3) one-time and repeat firesetters. Furthermore, the ability of these characteristics to predict offence status (i.e. firesetter or non-firesetter) and repeat firesetting was explored. Information was collected from patient hospital records for 77 (43 firesetters, 34 non-firesetters) mentally disordered offenders; including sociodemographic, family and personal background, psychiatric, and offence history factors. The findings suggest that mentally disordered firesetters are similar to their non-firesetting counterparts on key characteristics; however, firesetters are more likely to have an expressed interest in fire/explosives and a diagnosis of a schizophrenic disorder and female firesetters are more likely to have a higher number of firesetting incidents than males. Furthermore, findings suggest that fire interest is the largest predictor of repeat firesetting. Clinical implications in terms of treatment and risk assessment are discussed.     

An examination of the impact of community‐based rehabilitation on the offending behaviour of male domestic violence offenders and the characteristics associated with recidivism

Purpose. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of completing a community‐based rehabilitation programme on both the rate of domestic violence reoffending, and time to first post‐treatment offence within an 11‐month follow‐up period. In addition, the pre‐treatment psychological, demographic, and offending history characteristics of recidivists were examined. Methods. Prior to attending West Midlands Probation Area's Domestic Violence Perpetrator Programme (DVPP), 86 male offenders completed a battery of six psychometric tests. The tests were the Novaco Anger Scale, Inventory of Beliefs about Wife Beating, Abusive Behaviour Inventory, Interpersonal Dependency Inventory, Multidimensional Locus of Control Scale and Balanced Inventory of Desirable Responding. Post‐treatment reoffending was identified from police contact data. Results. Of the 86 offenders who started the DVPP, 21% were alleged to have reoffended within an 11‐month post‐treatment period. Completing the programme was not significantly associated with either alleged reoffending, or time to first alleged incident. The identified treatment effect size was small (w=0.20). It was found that higher interpersonal dependency and more frequent contact with the police in the 24 months prior to attending the programme for theft and violent domestic violence predicted post‐treatment domestic violence offending. Conclusions. The results of this study indicate that the programme did not significantly reduce the rate of alleged reoffending among programme completers, or the time to first post‐treatment offence reported to the police. However, the results suggest that those offenders who were alleged to have reoffended may represent a distinct offender subgroup. These results are discussed with reference to client treatment matching and the move towards nationally accredited rehabilitation programmes in the UK.     

Violence risk and gang affiliation in youth offenders: a recidivism study

Abstract

Youth gangs are ubiquitous around the world and have been problematic for the social and criminal justice agencies. Despite widespread public concern, there has been relatively scarce empirical scrutiny of youth gangs internationally and little outside of America and Europe. In particular, the activities of youth gangs, the function of gang membership, the criminogenic needs of gang-affiliated youth, and the risk of criminal recidivism for gang-affiliated youth remain unclear. Against this background, this study explored the sociodemographic characteristics, risk and rate of criminal recidivism in a cohort of 165 male youth offenders in Singapore, of which 58 were gang-affiliated. Multivariate analyses revealed that gang-affiliated youth offenders were significantly more likely to have histories of substance use, weapon use and violence than nongang-affiliated youth offenders. Gang-affiliated offenders also scored higher on measures of risk for recidivism (SAVRY and YLS/CMI), and engaged in violent and other criminal behaviors more frequently during follow-up. These differences indicate a significant relationship between gang affiliation and criminal recidivism in youth offenders. Furthermore, these findings have important clinical and policy implications, indicating an increased requirement for additional and more intensive assessment and tailored interventions for gang-affiliated youth offenders.     

Construct validity,reliability and predictive validity of the dynamic risk assessment and management system (DRAMS) in offenders with intellectual disability

Background. There have been a number of developments in the assessment of dynamic risk in the criminological literature. The dynamic risk assessment and management system (DRAMS) has been developed to facilitate the measurement of dynamic factors of risk for offenders with intellectual disability. Method. The study was designed to assess the construct validity, reliability and predictive utility of the DRAMS in 23 male forensic patients in a high secure setting. Predictions were made against independently collected incident data. Concurrent validity was assessed against the Ward Anger Rating Scale (WARS). Results. A reformulation of the individual section variables according to convergent and discriminant correlational analysis revealed Cronbach's alpha levels of >.8 for all sections apart from mood (alpha .750) and items retained to facilitate clinical information (alpha ?.017). Two hundred pairs of WARS and DRAMS assessments revealed orderly sectional correlations. The sections of mood, antisocial behaviour, and intolerance/agreeableness predicted incidents with a medium effect size as did total DRAMS score. There were highly significant differences between assessments taken 1 or 2 days prior to an incident and control assessments conducted at least 7 days from an incident. Conclusions. The reformulated DRAMS has good construct and concurrent validity. It appears to be a reliable assessment tool and informs on risk levels relating to stable and acute proximal factors. It appears as an important addition to the utility of risk assessments for this population.     

The predictive and convergent validity of a psychometric battery used to assess sexual offenders in a treatment programme: an 18-year follow-up

Abstract

This study examined sex offender risk and treatment change based on a battery of psychometric assessment measures administered to 267 treated adult Canadian federal sex offenders followed up an average 18 years post release. Several significant pre–post changes that were frequently moderate in magnitude (d>.50) were observed across these measures. A factor analysis of the psychometric battery generated three broad need domains consistent with the extant literature that were labelled Socioemotional Functioning, Anger/Hostility, and Misogynist Attitudes. The three need domains and a Need Total, created by their summation, converged with the Violence Risk Scale—Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003) in conceptually meaningful ways and predicted sexual and violent recidivism to varying degrees. Raw measurements of change obtained from pre-to posttreatment frequently bore weak and non-significant relationships to outcome. However, after creating standardised residual change scores to control for pre-treatment score, treatment changes in the individual measures, need domains and Need Total improved significantly in their prediction of reductions in general and sexual violence.