The Advent of Internet Surveys for Political Research: A Comparison of Telephone and Internet Samples

The Internet offers a number of advantages as a survey mode:low marginal cost per completed response, capabilities for providingrespondents with large quantities of information, speed, andelimination of interviewer bias. Those seeking these advantagesconfront the problem of representativeness both in terms ofcoverage of the population and capabilities for drawing randomsamples. Two major strategies have been pursued commerciallyto develop the Internet as a survey mode. One strategy, usedby Harris Interactive, involves assembling a large panel ofwilling respondents who can be sampled. Another strategy, usedby Knowledge Networks, involves using random digit dialing (RDD)telephone methods to recruit households to a panel of Web-TVenabled respondents. Do these panels adequately deal with theproblem of representativeness to be useful in political scienceresearch? The authors address this question with results fromparallel surveys on global climate change and the Kyoto Protocoladministered by telephone to a national probability sample andby Internet to samples of the Harris Interactive and KnowledgeNetworks panels. Knowledge and opinion questions generally showstatistically significant but substantively modest differenceacross the modes. With inclusion of standard demographic controls,typical relational models of interest to political scientistsproduce similar estimates of parameters across modes. It thusappears that, with appropriate weighting, samples from thesepanels are sufficiently representative of the U.S. populationto be reasonable alternatives in many applications to samplesgathered through RDD telephone surveys.     

Signals from the Tenth Justice: The Political Role of the Solicitor General in Supreme Court Decision Making

Conventional explanations of the solicitor general's influence on the Supreme Court emphasize his expertise or experience. We articulate and test a more political account based on insights from signaling theory. We argue justices will be more receptive to signals from the solicitor general (S.G.) when either the justice and S.G. are ideologically proximate or the S.G.'s signal is contrary to his ideological predisposition. We test our account over the period from 1953 to 2002 using a newly developed interinstitutional measure of ideology that places executive and judicial actors on the same spatial scale. Our results highlight the political nature of the S.G.'s influence, challenging the received wisdom about the S.G.'s impact on the Supreme Court.     

The Role of Image-Makers in the Greek Political Scene

Abstract

The paper will address the role of image-makers (political consultants) in the Greek political scene. First, it is argued the growth of political consulting in Greece in the 1990s is intimately linked to the deregulation of the Greek TV scene. Second, the national elections of April 2000 will provide the context for documenting the crucial role that image-makers play in the development of image management strategy and techniques. The convergence of Greek campaigning with communication practices which have been developed and used in American elections renders support to the adaptation version of the “Americanization thesis.”     

互联网视域下高校思想政治教育的转向、困境、进路

互联网的逐步发展与普及造成高校思想政治教育外在环境的转向,这种转向与传统思想政治教育内在结构相冲,使得高校思想政治教育陷入困境。研究这一转向过程及其原因,指出由此带来的高校思想政治教育的具体困境,并探析高校思想政治教育的合理进路,有助于有效抵御互联网对高校思想政治教育的冲击,提升高校思想政治教育实效。     

The Political Costs of Crisis Bargaining: Presidential Rhetoric and the Role of Party

We analyze the first large‐scale, randomized experiment to measure presidential approval levels at all outcomes of a canonical international crisis‐bargaining model, thereby avoiding problems of strategic selection in evaluating presidential incentives. We find support for several assumptions made in the crisis‐bargaining literature, including that a concession from a foreign state leads to higher approval levels than other outcomes, that the magnitudes of audience costs are under presidential control prior to the initiation of hostilities, and that these costs can be made so large that presidents have incentive to fight wars they will not win. Thus, the credibility of democratic threats can be made extremely high. We also find, however, that partisan cues strongly condition presidential incentives. Party elites have incentives to behave according to type in Congress and contrary to type in the Oval Office, and Democratic presidents sometimes have incentives to fight wars they will not win.     

Public Opinion, Political Communication and the Internet

In contemporary society public opinion is generally mediated by the mass media, which has come to encompass the Habermasian 'public sphere'. This arena is now characterised by the conflict between market and democratic principles, by competing interests of politicians and the media. The presentation of information for debate becomes distorted. The opinion of the 'public' is no longer created through deliberation, but is constructed through systems of communication, in conflict with political actors, who seek to retain control of the dissemination of information. The expansion of the internet as a new method of communication provides a potential challenge to the primacy of the traditional media and political parties as formers of public opinion.     

从哈贝马斯理论看国民之争问题

国民之争问题在中国日益突显,这既是一个历史问题,又是一个现代性问题。现代性加剧了个人与国家的疏离,尤其在全球化经济环境下,个体自由与整体和谐的冲突不可避免。哈贝马斯在自由主义与社群主义之外建立新型政治经济哲学,即话语政治,并在国家与市民社会之间开创出公共领域。哈贝马斯将社会结构区分为系统与生活世界两部分,用系统整合与社会整合的方式,并借助公共领域这个中介,协调两者间的矛盾。于是,国家维护系统权力,公民维护社会规范,在权力与规范的对立中,哈贝马斯的商谈理论为国民之争问题的解决提供了协调方法,也为我国经济领域的国民之争问题提供了解决的思路。     

Stalemate and Stagnation in Turkish Democratization: The Role of Civil Society and Political Parties

Both civil society organizations (CSOs) and political parties are expected to be vital actors in democratic societies, yet the ideal relationship between the two types of groups has not been fully explored. This article analyses how the interaction between CSOs and political parties has affected democratic consolidation in contemporary Turkey. Through personal interviews with leaders of both types of groups, the study finds that traditional power relations have shifted to include a greater number of political actors. Islamists, who were previously peripheral in politics, have joined the traditionally dominant secular nationalists at the ‘centre’ of political power. However, instead of increased pluralism, the study finds Turkish society now polarized along secularist/Islamist lines, both in political parties and among CSOs. While restrictions against non-governmental organizations have been lifted in recent years and the number of groups has grown, most are still viewed as ‘arms’ of political parties, lacking an independent voice and political power. These findings suggest that the civil society sector in Turkey is underdeveloped and unable to contribute positively to the democratization process.