A weak pillar for American national security: The CIA's dismal performance against WMD threats

American preemptive or preventive military action against WMD-armed adversaries in the future will simply not be feasible without high-quality and timely intelligence. But is American intelligence up to this load-bearing task for the post-11 September national security? This article surveys the Central Intelligence Agency's record of gauging potential WMD threats for more than a decade and assesses its overall performance as dismal. The CIA's recent intelligence debacle against Iraq was one of the greatest in a long series of failures that has publicly exposed the Agency's profound weaknesses. These intelligence failures were due in large measure to the CIA's poor human intelligence collection and shoddy analysis, areas that cannot be remedied alone by the creation of the new Director of National Intelligence post. This article recommends steps needed to increase the quality of intelligence produced by CIA, or elsewhere in the new intelligence community, to move American intelligence in lockstep with military transformation to give the Commander-in-Chief realistic options for countering hostile nation-states or terrorist groups seeking or acquiring WMD.     

From laboratory to the WMD Commission: how academic research influences intelligence agencies

Academic research can improve national security, yet the process by which findings flow from the ivory tower to intelligence agencies is not well understood by scholars. This article addresses this gap through an exploratory case study of when research impacted intelligence: the incorporation of cognitive biases research in intelligence analysis. The results of this study illustrate the importance of idea entrepreneurs—individuals who promote academic research—as well as the need for making academic findings applicable to intelligence practitioners. These results, while based on a single case, suggest new avenues for scholarship exploring knowledge utilization in intelligence.     

革命逻辑的错乱:中共“文化革命”观变迁考察(1956.1～1966.8)

“文化大革命”自是一场给党和国家带来严重灾难的内乱,但在它全面爆发前的十余年间,中共的“文化革命”观却经历了由“纯粹文化”到“观念”层面革命的三次反复,最终又由“观念”层面进入政治层面的“夺权”革命.其过程错综复杂,原因多种多样.对此变迁进行梳理和分析,能使人们从一个侧面了解中共及当代中国思想发展的轨迹.     

The Chinese Dream: Concept and Context

With the Chinese Dream as a new, signature ideology of the CCP comes the important and challenging task of understanding its concept. This article examines the concept and context of the Chinese Dream, especially its core concept of national rejuvenation. It focuses on tracing the background of the concept and analyzes the context of this new narrative from three closely connected aspects: historical perspectives, domestic legitimacy, and the comprehension of the concept in an international context.     

The Strange Career of British Democracy: John Milton to Gordon Brown

Political debate in modern Britain has been structured by four narratives or traditions, called here ‘Whig imperialist’, ‘Tory nationalist’, ‘democratic collectivist’ and ‘democratic republican’. The Whig imperialist tradition goes back to Edmund Burke; it is a tradition of responsive evolution, flexible statecraft, genial optimism and abhorrence of dogmatic absolutes. It prevailed for most of the nineteenth century, for most of the interwar period and for most of the 1950s and early‐1960s. Its Tory nationalist counterpart is tense, rebarbative and often shrill. At its core lies a primal fear of the dissolution of authority and a collapse of the social order. Its most notable exponents include Lord Salisbury, Enoch Powell and Margaret Thatcher. The democratic collectivist tradition stresses ineluctable progress towards a just and rational society, to be achieved by a strong, essentially technocratic central state, with the power and will to replace the wasteful, unjust chaos of the market place by planned co‐ordination. Formative influences on it were the great Fabian socialists, George Bernard Shaw and Sidney and Beatrice Webb; it achieved its apotheosis under the Attlee Government of 1945‐51. The democratic republican tradition is much more inchoate: its exponents have been the awkward squad of British democracy. The most glittering stars in the democratic republican firmament were probably John Milton, John Stuart Mill and R.H. Tawney. It stresses active self‐government and republican self respect, embodied in a vigorous civil society and strong local authorities. During the ninety‐odd years since Britain belatedly acquired a more‐or‐less democratic suffrage, the first three traditions have all been tested, almost to destruction. But though the fourth has had great influence on social movements of all kinds, governments at the centre have done little more than toy with it, usually for brief periods. The great question now is whether Britain is about to experience a democratic republican moment.     

What's in a Sector? The Shifting Career Plans of Public Policy Students

Recent decades have seen a trend in which public policy graduates shun government and enter private-sector employment. In part, the shift reflects changing sectoral opportunities, but its magnitude and consistency are puzzling—even troubling—in light of the need for public-sector talent. Data from a two-year series of surveys and interviews with policy students reveal that many begin their training with uncertain career goals and ambivalence about public-sector work. Interest in government declines from entry to graduation, and it appears that the policy curriculum—heavy on analytic methods and conveying cautions about policy making—does little to promote a public-sector orientation. Those planning to enter government are strongly motivated by a desire to have an impact, whereas those drawn to the private sector seek financial resources and professional development. Many anticipate fluid careers and choose positions expected to offer growth, a feature more commonly associated with private than public jobs.     

新大人论:西方哲学之作为中国哲学的一个环节

中国哲学虽然拿不出“德先生”与“赛先生,”却可以推出“大人先生,”可以推出超越“自我中心”“、地球中心”、“人类中心”等“中心论”而对天地万物“一体平看”的“大写的人”。这就是中国哲学中的“大人论,”著者称之为“旧大人论”。其基本视野有三重:以“太一”而求“最高,”以“太极”而求“最大,”以“太和”而求“最多”。此种根本思维方式导致中西哲学走上完全不同的道路“。新大人论”是要以“旧大人论”为基础接纳西方哲学为其环节:就“最高”一方面说,假如我们能将“白”之研究当成“大白”之研究的一个环节,将“辩”之研究当成“大辩”之研究的一个环节来处理,则我们就可以将西方哲学当成中国哲学的一个环节来处理;就“最大”一方面说,“宇宙共同体”是中国哲学的“终极关怀,”西方哲学的最大视野只达到“生态共同体,”只是中国哲学的一个环节;就“最多”一方面说,西方“一体化”正驱赶整个世界走上“消灭多样性”的不归路,立于宏观与长远的视角,我们也完全可以把“一体化”视为中国“太和”思维框架中的一个环节、一个特例。“新大人论”的根本目标是把西方哲学当成中国哲学的一个环节或特例来处理。     

政治象征:概念、过程与功能

政治象征不能游离于社会之外,而是社会约定俗成的产物.从象征创作到象征修正再到象征替代,乃至象征传播,政治象征无不表达为一种权力关系.围绕着这种权力关系,政治象征的表达性和工具性功能也就显现出来了.     

国家创新:制度与观念的变革

建设创新型国家作为中国社会新时期的发展战略,其内涵不仅仅局限于技术和微观经济制度的创新层面,更需要一种全方位的社会制度的变革和观念的革新.要大力提升整个社会的自组织能力,推动整个社会的管理体制、生产和生活方式的变革;要适应时代的复杂性和不确定性,探索创新的内在规律,建立一种学习型战略,增进战略思维能力.     

叙事疗法在高校生涯教育中的应用

高校生涯教育是以职业发展为核心开展课程教学、生涯辅导和咨询。叙事疗法的"共构生涯故事""赋予生涯意义"和"生涯即故事",将学生视为自我生涯的创作者和责任者,与过程取向的高校生涯教育存在以人为本、正向积极、赋予意义的共通之处,叙事疗法理念的拓展或可在高校生涯教育中将产生新的应用。     

公共政策滞后:概念综述与反思

制度变迁历来是新制度经济学的重要命题,而公共政策滞后则是制度变迁理论的重要组成部分.国内外学者通过自己的研究,提出了各具特色的政策滞后概念.本文在对国内外学者的政策滞后概念综述的基础上,从理论特征、现实表现、判断基准三个方面提出了公共政策滞后的学理解释.     

西方正义理念的演变

在西方伦理学发展过程中,对于正义思想的探讨走过了一条曲折的发展历程。为何称之为曲折,是因为正义的理论内涵和外延在不同的时期有着不同的逻辑内涵,正义究竟是立足于个人还是立足于社会,正义究竟是理念的还是现实的,正义是诉诸德性的提升还是制度的完善,我们可以通过伦理学发展史对正义概念进行一次梳理从而更好地理解正义为何存在诸多理论上的对抗,从而深化对正义问题的理解和把握。     

The Elements of the Concept of Ideology

This article, based upon an extensive examination of the literature on the concept of ideology, identifies some 27 definitional components or 'elements' which are discussed in turn to ascertain their utility and coherence as definitional criteria. On the basis of this examination a number of these elements are found to be essential to the concept, and are built into a definition which allows consideration of, among other things, the expressive and justificatory dimension of beliefs often ignored in other definitions.     

Natural History: the Life and Afterlife of a Concept in Adorno

Abstract

Theodor Adorno's concept of ‘natural history’ [Naturgeschichte] was central for a number of Adorno's theoretical projects, but remains elusive. In this essay, analyse different dimensions of the concept of natural history, distinguishing amongst (a) a reflection on the normative and methodological bases of philosophical anthropology and critical social science; (b) a conception of critical memory oriented toward the preservation of the memory of historical suffering; and (c) the notion of ‘mindfulness of nature in the subject’ provocatively asserted in Max Horkheimer and Adorno's Dialectic of Enlightenment. These strands are united by the notion of transience and goal of developing a critical theory sensitive to the transient in history. The essay concludes by suggesting some implications of an expanded concept of natural history for issues in the discourse theory of Jürgen Habermas.