Species identification of Papaver by metabolite profiling

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.     

Average Probability that a "Cold Hit" in a DNA Database Search Results in an Erroneous Attribution

Abstract:  We consider a hypothetical series of cases in which the DNA profile of a crime-scene sample is found to match a known profile in a DNA database (i.e., a "cold hit"), resulting in the identification of a suspect based only on genetic evidence. We show that the average probability that there is another person in the population whose profile matches the crime-scene sample but who is not in the database is approximately 2( N  −  d ) p _A , where N is the number of individuals in the population, d is the number of profiles in the database, and p _A is the average match probability (AMP) for the population. The AMP is estimated by computing the average of the probabilities that two individuals in the population have the same profile. We show further that if a priori each individual in the population is equally likely to have left the crime-scene sample, then the average probability that the database search attributes the crime-scene sample to a wrong person is ( N  −  d ) p _A .     

How to avoid driving DNA caseworkers crazy: CaseSolver,an expert system to investigate complex crime scenes

DNA analyses can be used for both investigative (crime scene-focused), or evaluative (suspect-focused) reporting. Investigative, DNA-led exploration of serious crimes always involves the comparison of hundreds of biological samples submitted by the authorities for analysis. Crime stain comparisons include both evidence to evidence profiles and reference to evidence profiles. When many complex DNA results (mixtures, low template LT-DNA samples) are involved in the investigation of a crime, the manual comparison of DNA profiles is very time-consuming and prone to manual errors. In addition, if the person of interest is a minor contributor, the classical approach of performing searches of national DNA databases is problematic because it is realistically restricted to clear major contributors and the occurrence of masking and drop-out means that there will not be a definitive DNA profile to perform the search with.CaseSolver is an open source expert system that automates analysis of complex cases. It does this by three sequential steps: a) simple allele comparison b) likelihood ratio (LR) based on a qualitative model (forensim) c) LR based on a quantitative model (EuroForMix). The software generates a list of potential match candidates, ranked according to the LRs, which can be exported as a report. The software can also identify contributors from small or large databases (e.g., staff database or 1 mill. individuals). In addition, an informative graphical network plot is generated that easily identifies contributors in common to multiple stains. Here we describe recent improvements made to the software in version v1.5.0, made in response to user requirements during intensive casework usage.     

Decision theoretic properties of forensic identification: underlying logic and argumentative implications

The field of forensic science has profited from recent advances in the elicitation of various kinds probabilistic data. These provide the basis for implementing probabilistic inference procedures (e.g., in terms of likelihood ratios) that address the task of discriminating among competing target propositions. There is ongoing discussion, however, whether forensic identification, that is, a conclusion that associates a potential source (such as an individual or object) with a given item of scientific evidence (e.g., a biological stain or a tool mark), can, if ever, be based on purely probabilistic argument. With regard to this issue, the present paper proposes to analyze the process of forensic identification from a decision theoretic point of view. Existing probabilistic inference procedures are used therein as an integral part. The idea underlying the proposed analyses is that inference and decision are connected in the sense that the former is the point of departure for the latter. As such the approach forms a coordinated whole, that is a framework also known in the context as 'full Bayesian (decision) approach'. This study points out that, as a logical extension to purely probabilistic reasoning, a decision theoretic conceptualization of forensic identification allows the content and structure of arguments to be examined from a reasonably distinct perspective and common fallacious interpretations to be avoided.     

The Influence of Places on Police Decision Pathways: From Call for Service to Arrest

Research on factors that influence police discretion usually focuses on individual or situational characteristics (e.g., an officer or citizen's age, race or gender, or the seriousness of the incident). In contrast, this study examines whether characteristics of places influence police decisions to “upgrade” or “downgrade” their response to incidents. Earlier research is expanded in three ways: first, rather than examining an isolated decision within the series of decisions that make up an incident, a series of chronological decisions within a “decision‐making pathway” is derived and analyzed. Second, multiple categories of racial and ethnic composition of places and their influence on police decision‐making pathways are examined. Third, decision pathways of a variety of incidents at small geographic places are compared across an entire jurisdiction. Findings indicate that, even when controlling for the level of violence, places with a greater proportion of Black or wealthy residents significantly influence officers' decisions to downgrade crime classifications and actions taken on incidents reported to the police.     

Effects of Testimonial Inconsistencies and Eyewitness Confidence on Mock-Juror Judgments

This study examined the interaction between testimonial consistency and eyewitness confidence on mock-jurors' judgments of probability that the defendant committed the crime and verdicts. In a 2 (testimonial consistency) × 2 (confidence) between-groups design, 130 mock-jurors listened to an audio-taped trial of a person charged with armed robbery. Manipulations were contained in the prosecution witness's responses to detailed questioning by prosecution and defense attorneys. Although consistency is considered to be a key marker of accuracy, its impact on judgments was weak and nonsignificant. Witness confidence had a strong influence on judgments, whether testimony was consistent or inconsistent. We suggested that witness confidence may be more likely to emerge as a dominant influence on juror judgments when the testimony is wide ranging rather than relatively brief and concerned only with a specific issue (e.g., identification confidence).     

Developing and Testing a Soil Property Database for Forensic Applications in Southern California

The research sought to develop and test a forensic database of surface soil variability within previously mapped geologic and soil units in southern California. This type of database could be used to link suspects to crime scenes or determine source locations of soil sample evidence. Variability was evaluated using (i) color, (ii) magnetic susceptibility, and (iii) particle‐size distribution. Soil properties were analyzed for their ability to discriminate source areas using stepwise discriminant analysis. The percent correct predictions for geologic unit groups ranged from 30% to 100%. A blind study experiment matched four of the 18 samples to their unit of origin with the first choice by stepwise discriminant analysis, and eight were matched as second and third choices. The probability of selecting the appropriate unit of origin increased by 54% over random chance and eliminated as much as 99% of the field area as a potential search location.     

Use of DNA profiles for investigation using a simulated national DNA database: Part II. Statistical and ethical considerations on familial searching

Familial searching consists of searching for a full profile left at a crime scene in a National DNA Database (NDNAD). In this paper we are interested in the circumstance where no full match is returned, but a partial match is found between a database member's profile and the crime stain. Because close relatives share more of their DNA than unrelated persons, this partial match may indicate that the crime stain was left by a close relative of the person with whom the partial match was found. This approach has successfully solved important crimes in the UK and the USA. In a previous paper, a model, which takes into account substructure and siblings, was used to simulate a NDNAD [1]. In this paper, we have used this model to test the usefulness of familial searching and offer guidelines for pre-assessment of the cases based on the likelihood ratio. Siblings of “persons” present in the simulated Swiss NDNAD were created. These profiles (N = 10,000) were used as traces and were then compared to the whole database (N = 100,000). The statistical results obtained show that the technique has great potential confirming the findings of previous studies. However, effectiveness of the technique is only one part of the story. Familial searching has juridical and ethical aspects that should not be ignored. In Switzerland for example, there are no specific guidelines to the legality or otherwise of familial searching. This article both presents statistical results, and addresses criminological and civil liberties aspects to take into account risks and benefits of familial searching.     

Criminal DNA databases: the European situation

In the last 5 years, a number of European countries have successfully introduced national databases holding the DNA profiles from suspected and convicted criminal offenders as well as from biological stain materials from unsolved crime cases. At present, DNA databases are fully or partially in operation in the UK, The Netherlands, Austria, Germany, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Switzerland and Sweden. Furthermore, in the other European countries, specific legislation will be enacted soon, or the introduction of such databases is being discussed to initiate a legislative process. Numerous differences exist regarding the criteria for a criminal offender to be included in the database, the storage periods and the possibility to remove database records, the possibility to keep reference samples from the offenders as long as their respective records are being held, and the role of judges in the process of entering a database record or to perform a database search. Nevertheless, harmonization has been achieved regarding the DNA information stored in national databases, and a European standard set of genetic systems has been recommended which is included either in part or completely in the DNA profiles of offenders and crime stains for all European databases. This facilitates the exchange of information from database records to allow the investigation of crime cases across national borders.     

Optimizing Ballistic Imaging Operations

Ballistic imaging systems can help solve crimes by comparing images of cartridge cases, which are recovered from a crime scene or test‐fired from a gun, to a database of images obtained from past crime scenes. Many U.S. municipalities lack the resources to process all of their cartridge cases. Using data from Stockton, CA, we analyze two problems: how to allocate limited capacity to maximize the number of cartridge cases that generate at least one hit, and how to prioritize the cartridge cases that are processed to maximize the usefulness (i.e., obtained before the corresponding criminal case is closed) of hits. The number of hits can be significantly increased by prioritizing crime scene evidence over test‐fires, and by ranking calibers by their hit probability and processing only the higher ranking calibers. We also estimate that last‐come first‐served increases the proportion of hits that are useful by only 0.05 relative to first‐come first‐served.     

Naturalistic decision making in forensic science: toward a better understanding of decision making by forensic team leaders

This study uses the naturalistic decision-making (NDM) perspective to examine how Dutch forensic team leaders (i.e., the officers in charge of criminal forensic research from the crime scene until the use of laboratory assistance) make decisions in real-life settings and identifies the contextual factors that might influence those decisions. First, a focus group interview was conducted to identify four NDM mechanisms in day-to-day forensic decision making. Second, a serious game was conducted to examine the influence of three of these contextual mechanisms. The results uncovered that forensic team leaders (i) were attracted to obtain further information when more information was initially made available, (ii) were likely to devote more attention to emotionally charged cases, and (iii) used not only forensic evidence in the decision making but also tactical, unverified information of the police inquiry. Interestingly, the measured contextual influences did not deviate significantly from a control group of laypeople.     

Research design influence on study outcomes in crime and justice: a partial replication with public area surveillance

Does the quality of research design have an influence on study outcomes in crime and justice? This was the subject of an important study by Weisburd et al. (2001). They found a moderate and significant inverse relationship between research design and study outcomes: weaker designs, as indicated by internal validity, produced stronger effect sizes. Using a database of evaluations (n?=?136) from systematic reviews that investigated the effects of public area surveillance on crime, this paper carried out a partial replication of Weisburd et al.??s study. We view it as a partial replication because it included only area- or place-based studies (i.e., there were no individual-level studies) and these studies used designs at the lower end of the evaluation hierarchy (i.e., not one of the studies used a randomized experimental design). In the present study, we report findings that are highly concordant with the earlier study. The overall correlation between research design and study outcomes is moderate but negative and significant (Tau-b?= ?C.175, p?=?.029). This suggests that stronger research designs are less likely to report desirable effects or, conversely, weaker research designs may be biased upward. We explore possible explanations for this finding. Implications for policy and research are discussed.     

TRAITS AND STATES: INTEGRATING PERSONALITY AND AFFECT INTO A MODEL OF CRIMINAL DECISION MAKING*

We propose and test a model of criminal decision making that integrates the individual differences perspective with research and theorizing on proximal factors. The individual differences perspective is operationalized using the recent HEXACO personality structure. This structure incorporates the main personality traits, but it carries the advantage of also incorporating Self‐Control within its personality sphere, and an additional trait termed Honesty‐Humility. Furthermore, the model offers a new perspective on proximal predictors, “states,” of criminal decisions by adding affect (i.e., feelings) to the rational choice–crime equation. The proposed model is tested using scenario data from a representative sample of the Dutch population in terms of gender, age, education level, and province (N = 495). As predicted by the model, personality was both directly and indirectly related to criminal decision making. Specifically, the traits Emotionality, Self‐Control, and Honesty‐Humility were mediated by both affect and rational choice variables. Conscientiousness operated only indirectly on criminal decision making via rational choice. Together, the findings support a trait‐state model of criminal decision making.     

The Forensic Confirmation Bias: A Comparison Between Experts and Novices

A large body of research has described the influence of context information on forensic decision‐making. In this study, we examined the effect of context information on the search for and selection of traces by students (N = 36) and crime scene investigators (N = 58). Participants investigated an ambiguous mock crime scene and received prior information indicating suicide, a violent death or no information. Participants described their impression of the scene and wrote down which traces they wanted to secure. Results showed that context information impacted first impression of the scene and crime scene behavior, namely number of traces secured. Participants in the murder condition secured most traces. Furthermore, the students secured more crime‐related traces. Students were more confident in their first impression. This study does not indicate that experts outperform novices. We therefore argue for proper training on cognitive processes as an integral part of all forensic education.     

Probabilistic genotyping of single cell replicates from complex DNA mixtures recovers higher contributor LRs than standard analysis

DNA mixtures are a common source of crime scene evidence and are often one of the more difficult sources of biological evidence to interpret. With the implementation of probabilistic genotyping (PG), mixture analysis has been revolutionized allowing previously unresolvable mixed profiles to be analyzed and probative genotype information from contributors to be recovered. However, due to allele overlap, artifacts, or low-level minor contributors, genotype information loss inevitably occurs. In order to reduce the potential loss of significant DNA information from donors in complex mixtures, an alternative approach is to physically separate individual cells from mixtures prior to performing DNA typing thus obtaining single source profiles from contributors. In the present work, a simplified micro-manipulation technique combined with enhanced single-cell DNA typing was used to collect one or few cells, referred to as direct single-cell subsampling (DSCS). Using this approach, single and 2-cell subsamples were collected from 2 to 6 person mixtures. Single-cell subsamples resulted in single source DNA profiles while the 2-cell subsamples returned either single source DNA profiles or new mini-mixtures that are less complex than the original mixture due to the presence of fewer contributors. PG (STRmix™) was implemented, after appropriate validation, to analyze the original bulk mixtures, single source cell subsamples, and the 2-cell mini mixture subsamples from the original 2–6-person mixtures. PG further allowed replicate analysis to be employed which, in many instances, resulted in a significant gain of genotype information such that the returned donor likelihood ratios (LRs) were comparable to that seen in their single source reference profiles (i.e., the reciprocal of their random match probabilities). In every mixture, the DSCS approach gave improved results for each donor compared to standard bulk mixture analysis. With the 5- and 6- person complex mixtures, DSCS recovered highly probative LRs (≥10²⁰) from donors that had returned non-probative LRs (<10³) by standard methods.     

An Evaluation of Teen Court as a Juvenile Crime Diversion Program

Theories of procedural justice support the American legal system's search for a fair and effective means of diverting offenders from the juvenile court system. Teen Court programs, in which juvenile offenders are tried and sentenced by a jury of peers, are one of the latest developments in attempts to positively influence offenders and direct them free of crime. The present research found that participation in Teen Court increased offenders' legal knowledge and enhanced their attitudes toward some authority figures (i.e., the judge) and themselves to a greater extent than non‐offending juveniles. In addition, only 12.6 percent of juvenile offenders re‐offended within five months of their initial Teen Court involvement. Improved attitudes toward authority and self were associated with a lower incidence of recidivism. Overall, these results contribute to the growing literature indicating that Teen Court can be an effective juvenile crime diversion program. This article also discusses methodological issues for future program evaluations.     

Shaping the Spiderweb: Towards the Concept of Joint Commission Through Another Person Under the Rome Statute and Jurisprudence of the International Criminal Court

This article argues that the concept of joint commission through another person has a central place in the co-perpetration architecture of the Rome Statute and jurisprudence of the International Criminal Court. The concept of joint commission through another person envisages a commission of a crime by two or more individuals through one or more subordinated persons. Even though the concept of joint commission through another person does not expressly derive from the Article 25(3)(a) of the Rome Statute of the ICC, this article argues that an individual can be held responsible as a co-perpetrator of a crime committed jointly with another individual through subordinated individuals if he or she has joint control over the crime because of his/her essential contribution to the commission of the crime.     

单位实施自然人犯罪问题之探讨

单位如果实施了自然人犯罪,在司法实践中并不能以单位犯罪论处,是以个人犯罪论处还是司法机关不予处理而放纵犯罪?这一问题理论界存在有不同的看法,且在司法实践的处理过程中,也存在着争论,至今尚无定论。这样的现状,一方面难于体现我国的刑法保护功能,另一方面如予以处理,则可能冒违反罪刑法定原则的风险,的确是一个两难问题。单位实施自然人犯罪的刑事当罚性,罪刑法定原则下的犯罪的变异与司法实践,单位实施自然人犯罪的法律认识等问题的探讨,希望能为现实问题的解决开辟思路。     

Simply Criminal: Predicting Burglars’ Occupancy Decisions with a Simple Heuristic

Rational choice theories of criminal decision making assume that offenders weight and integrate multiple cues when making decisions (i.e., are compensatory). We tested this assumption by comparing how well a compensatory strategy called Franklin’s Rule captured burglars’ decision policies regarding residence occupancy compared to a non-compensatory strategy (i.e., Matching Heuristic). Forty burglars each decided on the occupancy of 20 randomly selected photographs of residences (for which actual occupancy was known when the photo was taken). Participants also provided open-ended reports on the cues that influenced their decisions in each case, and then rated the importance of eight cues (e.g., deadbolt visible) over all decisions. Burglars predicted occupancy beyond chance levels. The Matching Heuristic was a significantly better predictor of burglars’ decisions than Franklin’s Rule, and cue use in the Matching Heuristic better corresponded to the cue ecological validities in the environment than cue use in Franklin’s Rule. The most important cue in burglars’ models was also the most ecologically valid or predictive of actual occupancy (i.e., vehicle present). The majority of burglars correctly identified the most important cue in their models, and the open-ended technique showed greater correspondence between self-reported and captured cue use than the rating over decision technique. Our findings support a limited rationality perspective to understanding criminal decision making, and have implications for crime prevention.     

Is occupational fraud “typical” white-collar crime? A comparison of individual and organizational characteristics

Controversy over the appropriate unit of analysis plagued the white-collar crime literature. This state of affairs was a product, at least in part, of the continued development of two distinct research traditions. Researchers interested in “occupational crime” focused on individuals, whereas “corporate crime” researchers studied organizations. As a result, assumptions persisted about the “typical” offender and organizational setting for white-collar crime. Using a sample of 1,142 occupational fraud cases, the present study addressed voids in the literature by comparing differences in individual offender characteristics (i.e., age, gender, education, and position in the organization) and organizational victim characteristics (i.e., size, type, existing control mechanisms, and revenue) for three types of occupational fraud: asset misappropriation, corruption, and fraudulent statements. The analysis revealed that individuals who committed fraudulent statements conformed to the literature's “high status” image, while those involved in asset misappropriation or corruption more closely resembled D. Weisburd, S. Wheeler, E. Waring, and N. Bode's (1991) “middle-class” offenders. Moreover, organizations victimized by corruption were similar to the literature's depiction of the large, profit-making company setting for white-collar crime, while the other two types of occupational fraud occurred in distinctly different settings. Implications for future research and fraud prevention are provided.