英文摘要

There are different viewpoints in India about China＇s proposal of building the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. Some assert that India and China should cooperate on marine issues, others insist that India has to contain China＇s influence on the Indian Ocean. Most of the Indian strategic community believe that the government needs prudence in reacting to the proposal. New Delhi will probably limit its participation in this effort and make the final decision based on an assessment of whether China will project power or build military utilities on the Indian Ocean.     

＂Strategic Reassurance＂ and the Future of China-U.S. Relations

＂Strategic reassurance,＂ a new concept in Obama＇s China policy, should be fostered bilaterally by dialogue designed to highlight and reinforce the areas of common interests while addressing the sources of mistrust directly. Yet in practice it seems that U.S. strategic reassurance has contrasted all China＇s core interests. The United States and China must recognize their different social systems and asymmetrical national strength in seeking to realize strategic stability. Crisis control requires sophisticated management of both side, especially on sensitive issues like weapons sales, the Dalai Lama, and the South China Sea dispute.     

The Changing Asia-Pacific Strategic Picture

Battlefield for Strategic Rivalry
In recent years, the Asia-Pacific strategic configuration has entered a stare of in-depth readiustments. The relative decline of the United States,China＇s rapid rise, Russia＇s fast revival and Japan＇s quickening step toward a ＂normal country＂ have combined to turn regional multi-polarity into a reality. Not surprisingly, the world＇ s strategic structure has begun to focus on the region, with intensifying rivalry among major countries centered on economic competition and aggravating geopolitical game conducive to a security dilemma. As a matter of fact, U.S.-Japanese provocations have been at work in tuming regional hotspot issues into tools for such a game. As a result, escalating security threats to China in the East and South China Seas are converging into potential risks of collision and conflicts with other contenders.     

英文摘要

Maritime Security in the Indian Ocean and China＇s Strategy Shi Chunlin The maritime routes of the Indian Ocean are of critical importance to China given perceived seurity threat in this region and China＇s increasing relevance of intersts. There comes to be a strategic imperative for China to step in efforts to gain a credible security reassurance in terms of substantial China＇s overseas energy shipments and its increasing sense of insecurity caused by the emerging conflict of interests with other powers. The author believes that China would have a better capacity to cope with any potential crisis or emergencies given defining its proactive countermeasures and taking calibrated but result--oriented operation.     

ABSTRACTS

Speech by India＇s Ambassador to China Dr. S. ,Jaishankar at Institute for South Asian Studies, Sichuan University on Dec. 14, 2009
India＇s Strategic Rise and Sino--lndian Relations： Issues, Trends and Approaches
ZhangLi
India＇s strategic rise will exert significant impacts on regional and global strategic pattern in general, China and Sino --Indian relations in particular. A mutual concerned topic is emphasized on the 60th anniversary of Sino--Indian relation： whether India and China can establish and develop strong and healthy partnership through a credible way, coordinate conflicts, pursue common interests and promote regional and global security and development. To achieve this goal, it is neeessary to enhance mutual trust on strategy and expand cooperation, implement the strategic interaction mechanism, improve the predictability of mutual poliey, and deal with main issues such as border dispute and geo-strategy collision.     

NATO＇s Strategic Readjustment

In April 2009, the NATO Strasbourg-Kehl Summit adopted a series of joint declarations and strategic plans, demonstrating that NATO is entering a new round of military-political strategic adjustment. NATO＇s new strategic direction has been motivated by various internal and external factors, including the pressure of the new international environment, the Obama administration＇s desire to upgrade strategic cooperation with its allies, the major European states represented by France and Germany seeking to strengthen the European pillar within NATO, and the urgent need to readjust NATO＇s external relations. The aim of the strategic readjustment is to advance NATO＇s military and political transformation from a regional collective defense organization into a more active and powerful Western military-political alliance. NATO is still facing a series of difficulties and challenges： the disappearance of the common threat of the Soviet bloc, the differing interests of the member states, and the fluctuation of real strength within the NATO will all impose constraints on NATO＇s development. Thus, there are still doubts and uncertainties about NATO＇s future role and position.     

Adjusting China＇ s Strategic Thinking and Positive Response to the Serious Challenges of Japanese Militarism

In recent years, China＇s strategic pressure has increased as U.S. strategic anxiety has deepened and its global strategic focus has shiftedeast. With difficulties home and abroad, the U.S. has taken measures to ＂put Japan out＂, and to allow Japan to be the U.S. ＇s important strategic fulcrum in the Asia-Pacific region, as a means of restricting China. This is the important background for Japanese militarism.     

ABSTRACTS

As a US--sold new geopolitical concept, the Indo--Pacific represents an ambitious attempt to sustain US leadership and maximize its interests in the Asia--Pacific and Indian Ocean region by emphasizing maritime security and exclusive al- liance/partnerships. India, Japan and Australia respond to the initiative on the basis of their respective interest calcula- tions and policy preferences and seek an important role. The strategic notion of the Indo--Pacific and its implementation will greatly influence the regional multilateral relationships as well as China＇ s policy options toward the changing security landscape.     

Responding to Our Peripheral Security Challenges

Current challenges to the security in China＇s surrounding areas, the ＇strategic belt for China＇s ascendance, can be characterized as follows：     

International System and China＇s Asia-Pacific Strategy

What impact does a shift in the global distribution of power have on the international order？ According to the views of traditional realists, power transitions in the international order are usually accompanied by major wars, the best example being the two world wars of the twentieth century. China＇s peaceful rise is conducive to the peace and stability of Asia and Pacific regions. The steady rise of China＇s position and its role in dealing with international and regional problems have proved China＇s success in ＂cooperative security＂. This paper analyzes the security order in the Asia-Pacific region1 that China wants to construct to provide important guarantees to its peaceful rise. Firstly, I review and compare key arguments about the transition of international systems and China＇s Asia-Pacific strategy, Secondly, I investigate the dynamics between China＇s peaceful rise and the ＂cooperative security＂ which I think are the collective embodiments of modem transformation and the restructuring of China＇s traditional strategic culture. Thirdly, I examine how to construct a mechanism of cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region to guarantee China＇s peaceful rise on both political and economic levels. Economic cooperation and free trade in Asia-Pacific region is an important route to regional economic integrity which will guarantee China＇s role in maintaining the political and economic security in the region.     

Evolvement of New China＇s Relations with Other Developing Countries

China＇s relationship with other developing countries is an important basis for China＇s foreign strategy. Since its founding, New China has accumulated complex experience and achieved rich fruits in how to handle and develop its relations with other developing countries. It has experienced contradictions between ideology and national identity and also made strenuous efforts to safeguard the country＇s strategic independence. Since the introduction of the reform and opening-up policy, China has rapidly enhanced its national strength, providing a new platform for it to play a greater role in the current international system. But China＇s identity as a developing country remains the starting point of its foreign strategy, and hence promoting and consolidating its relationship with other developing countries will also remain as China＇s strategic choice.     

Building A New Type of Sino-Russian Relationship

Russia is one of the main external factors that can influence China＇s eriod of strategic opportunity and its rise. One of China＇s long-lasting strategic goals is to develop China-Russia ties based on ＂equality and trust, mutual support, common prosperity and friendship for generations＂.     

Strategic Implications of the Division of Developing Countries

Recentyears have seen accelerated divisionof developing countries, which has greatly affected world balance of power, interest patterns, North-South relations and the respective country＇s own future. Research on this subject will prove to be practically important for assessing the strategic trends in the world＇s ＂great transformation and adjustment＂, defining China＇s international identity and sharing China＇s developing opportunities, meeting challenges and achieving peaceful development and win-win results with other countries.     

Strategic Prospects for Russia from the Perspective of Its Modernization Strategy

Russia＇s Modernization Strategy, advocated by President Dmitry Medvedev, aims at attracting Western capital, technology and human resources, and building a stronger Russia by making its politics more democratic and its economy more creative. This strategy, different from that of Vladimir Putin＇s, underlines Medvedev＇s earnestness to modernize Russia with the assistance of the West, and triggers suspicion that his strategy is one of emerging from Putin＇s shadow before the next presidential election. Uncertainty is once again defining Russia＇s strategic prospects.     

Energy Development in South Asia and China- South Asia Energy Cooperation

In South Asia, most countries are heavily dependent on energy imports as a result of poor natural endowment, weak exploration capacity and fast economic development. However, being close neighbor to China, the South Asia serves as the corridor for China＇s energy imports and the transit region for China＇s oil and gas pipelines. It is in China＇s strategic interests to conduct energy cooperation with the South Asian countries.     

Chinese Diplomacy towards Its Neighbors： Inheritance,Innovation and Development

Ibelieve that China＇s diplomatic strategy towards its neighbors should serve the general strategic goal of rejuvenating the Chinese nation asenvisioned in President Xi Jinping＇s ＂China Dream＂. It has clear precedence and should be adjusted as the situation evolves. The fundamental goals of China＇s diplomatic strategy, since the implementation of Reform and Opening-Up, have been economic construction and the building and maintenance of a peaceful international and regional environment.     

The U.S. Decline Debate and Its Impact

The possibility that the U.S. is in decline has renewed concerns over the international strategic situation and the global order. The World Bank＇ s International Comparison Program （ICP） released data in April 2014 that suggested China＇ s economy could overtake that of the U.S. as soon as the end of this year （based on purchasing power parity or PPP which takes into account the relative costs of goods and services and inflation rates）. Their figures showed that the size of China＇ s economy was 87% of the U.S.＇ in 2011-that is 15% bigger than previously estimated. China＇ s economy is thought to have grown roughly 24% since 2011, while the U.S. economy is expected to have grown less than 8% .2 The possibility that the U.S. economy is in decline has worried both the public and scholars, and has sparked a new round of lively debate on the future of the international strategic situation.     

China＇s Relations with Africa： Building a Harmonious World

The Sino-African relationship is one of the most important inter-continental relationships in the world. It is unique both in its origin and evolution and plays an important role on the world stage. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations in the mid-1950s, traditional, friendly and cooperative relations between China and African countries have developed rapidly, reaching an historic high in 2000 when both sides proclaimed the establishment of a new type of strategic partnership. Transcending Western traditional value and logic of thinking, such as the supremacy of international interests and power control, Sino-African relations have created a new model in international relations, featuring equality, peaceful coexistence and friendly cooperation. This promotes African development and the democratization process in both international relations and the global community. From China＇s perspective, it spreads China＇s idea of harmonious culture and harmonious diplomacy, thus promoting world peace and development, and contributing towards building a harmonious world.     

U.S.-China-Japan Relations and China＇ s Strategic Choices

japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe＇s visit to the Yasukuni Shrine has escalated tensions between China and Japan that were triggered by the Diaoyu Islands dispute. Changes in the balance of power between China and Japan have caused concerns and strategic restlessness in Japan. Because of public opinion and his party＇s control of the House of Representatives and Senate, Abe is now eager to further his aims both domestically and overseas. That is why he said： ＂Now is the time for Japan to take the big step in building a new state.＂ The U.S. supports a stronger Japan because it is looking to maintain the strategic balance in the Asia-Pacific region. Its Asia-Pacific Rebalancing strategy is bound to inflame Japan＇s ambitions. In fact, Japan has been actively pursuing stronger ties with the U.S. and became more aggressive over the Diaoyu Islands issue.