Modernisation or Disorientation? Policy Change in Merkel's CDU

After decades of relative continuity, the Christian Democratic Union began making major modifications in its basic policy orientations after 1998. These waves of modernisation largely vindicate traditional explanations of party change, as they resulted from a combination of external shocks (electoral decline); leadership transition (Angela Merkel's consolidation of power); and internal factional change (weakening of the CDU's traditional conservative and social wings, along with the growing influence of its pro-market and culturally liberal elements). Yet the nature of Merkel's leadership and absence of a dominant internal coalition in the CDU often gave this policy change an ad hoc, inconsistent character.     

Engaging an Elephant in the Room? Locating Africa in Australian Foreign Policy

Africa has traditionally been marginal to the Australian foreign policy agenda, aside from British colonial and Commonwealth ties and later efforts to end minority rule in southern Africa. Yet a resources boom, strong economic growth, increasing democratisation and reformed governance institutions have created new international interests in engaging with Africa and made it difficult for aspiring global players like Australia to ignore the continent's opportunities and challenges. Under Labor (2007–13), Canberra pursued substantial “new engagement” with this “new Africa”, enhancing political and diplomatic relations, supporting major Australian commercial interests and quadrupling the Africa aid budget. Following the election of the Abbott Coalition government in September 2013, the article argues that while commercial opportunities and some specific security and humanitarian concerns will keep the Coalition interested in Africa, the enhanced level of engagement with the continent pursued under Labor is unlikely to be sustained.     

Baltic Refugees and Policy Formation in Sweden 1940–1950

The Baltic refugees of the Second World War, in Sweden, were part of the opening up of Sweden to immigration. New research, after the turn of the century, has shown how this change of policy was part of the emerging welfare state, embracing a wider geographical area. Still, the opening was conditioned by degrees of “Nordicness” and the conditions of neutrality toward Germany and not least the Soviet Union. This review article highlights some of the new insights of Swedish historiography.     

Lion in the Sand: British Policy in the Middle East, 1945–67

The crisis that unfolded after Iran's June 2009 presidential election exposed the absolutist nature of the state's highest religious authority (wali-ye faqih), Ayatullah ‘Ali Khamena'i. It also revealed the urgent need to critically interrogate Ayatullah Khomeini's doctrinal justifications for the governance of the jurist (wilayat al-faqih) in light of how ‘Ali ibn Abi Talib, the first Shi‘i Imam, assumed the caliphate: divine bestowal (nass) combined with public investiture that took the form of bay‘a (oath of allegiance). Ayatullahs Husayn ‘Ali Montazeri, Mohsen Kadivar, Yousef Saanei, Bayat Zanjani and Mehdi Karrubi have attempted to devise a model in which sovereignty belongs to the public and limits the clergy's role in daily matters of the state to oversight and guidance. In contrast, Ayatullahs Kazemeyni Boroujerdi and Mojteba Shabestari argue for a clear-cut separation between the church and the state so that the public can choose its form of government since no specific form is prescribed in Islam. On the other hand, Ayatullah Mesbah Yazdi, a member of the Assembly of Experts, has consistently been a passionate advocate of the absolute authority of the jurist in its most comprehensive form and a vehement opponent of any dissenting discourse on this subject.     

“Analytical Eclecticism” in Theorizing Japanese Security Policy: A Review Essay

Abstract

This review essay explores the conceptual parameters of the contemporary “Japan Rising” thesis. It stakes out the debate between three prolific scholars in the field of Japanese security affairs and considers the different analytical approaches that may be applied to understand the current evolutions in Tokyo's grand strategy. It concludes that “analytical eclecticism” in theorizing Japanese security policy is a worthwhile and necessary endeavor, one that may be further augmented by the addition of multi-sector and human security concepts.     

On the Electoral Relevance of Education Policy in the German Länder

Education policy in Germany experienced a boom throughout the 2000s. Numerous reforms were implemented, quite far-reaching shifts of party programmes occurred, and the scope of institutions with an educational mandate widened considerably. At the same time, Landtag elections came to be seen as less dominated by federal politics. Yet we still know little about education policy's electoral relevance. The present article, following a most-likely design, analyses those five Landtag elections that were held since the reform of federalism in 2006 for which the importance of education policy ought to have been highest. It turns out that even though education is one of the very few policies which the Länder can decide upon autonomously, and despite the recent upsurge of regional factors in determining the outcomes of such second-order elections, nearly all Landtag elections are won or lost on other battlefields.     

Does Participation in Policymaking Enhance Satisfaction with the Policy Outcome? Evidence from Switzerland

This article investigates the benefit of participation in policymaking. Based on data from interviews with various interest groups, private organisations, and representatives of regions that had been involved in recent policymaking processes in Switzerland, this study analyses the relationship between participation and satisfaction with the policy outcome. The study looks at two different aspects of outcome satisfaction: perceived consensus of a decision and preference attainment. The results show that the level of participation is related to both aspects of outcome satisfaction but that the strength of association is dependent on the type of interest group and the level of conflict among the groups participating in the decision‐making process.     

Measuring Assimilation: ‘Mother Tongue’ Question in Turkish Censuses and Nationalist Policy

This article aims to examine how the Turkish census measures, classifies and interprets the languages spoken in Turkey. By examining the non-standardised relationship between ‘mother tongue’, ‘domestic language’ and ‘ethnicity’, the article analyses the ongoing and dynamic milieu that surrounds the fixed questions and clear-cut classifications of data. This article argues that the ethnic measurement is not a ‘fixed’ measurement, because the wording of the linguistic question and the data categorisation as well as the interpretation of the data has been changing.     

Soft or Hard Power? Discourse Patterns in Brazil's Foreign Policy Toward South America

This article analyzes the discourse of Brazil's foreign policy toward South America from 1995 to 2010 by means of quantifying, codifying, and weighting all speeches registered in the homogeneous and periodic official documentation of Brazil's Ministry of Foreign Affairs using a discourse analysis approach. The aim is to investigate discourse patterns in order to qualify Brazil's foreign policy as either hard power or soft power and to identify the orientation and differences in its discourse of foreign policy regarding each country of South America during the presidential terms of Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995–2002) and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (2003–2010).     

Grand Coalition and Multi-Party Competition: Explaining Slowing Reforms in Gender Policy in Germany (2009–13)

Since 2005, the Christian Democrats (CDU) modernised family and labour market policy by supporting gender equality. Recent explanations trace this back to their competition with the Social Democrats (SPD) for female voters. What is missing from these accounts is a discussion of coalition dynamics. We argue that the drive for modernisation faltered under Angela Merkel's second term for three reasons: (1) coalitional dynamics in the new Conservative–Liberal coalition; (2) the traditionalist CSU wanted to distinguish itself from the moderate impulses of the CDU; and (3) the CDU reacted by moving away from its former ‘social democratisation’. As a result, gender equality policies in the family and labour market slowed and developed increasing inconsistency by indicating not only openness for modern but also emphasising conservative ideas. Despite the inherent contradictions this appealed to many different voters and contributed to a substantial victory for the CDU in the federal election of 2013.     

India's “Look East” Policy

A combination of economic, strategic, and domestic considerations has led India to pay greater attention to its eastern neighbours since the 1990s. India's steadily growing ties with East and Southeast Asian countries have become an increasingly important element of India's foreign policy. India is working with these countries bilaterally as well as through regional frameworks like the EAS, ASEM, and ASEAN, and sub-regional organizations like BIMSTEC and Mekong-Ganga Cooperation. The main driver remains economic, and India has many ongoing and planned FTAs with the countries of this region. Of late, defence and security ties too have grown. However, India's relations with China remain tense and troubled, with persisting differences over the border, Tibet, and China's patronage of India's South Asian neighbours, particularly Pakistan. Asia's major players will have to overcome internal rivalries and consciously evolve a cooperative paradigm for Asian security and cooperation to enable Asia to play a leading global role.     

The ‘Revolution’ of 27 May 1960 in Turkey: British Policy towards Turkey

Muslim National Communism in the Soviet Union: A Revolutionary Strategy for the Colonial World by Alexandre A. Bennigsen and S. Enders Wimbush. Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press, 1979. Pp. xxii + 265, illustrations, index, bibliography. $20.00.

Islam, Nationalism and Communism in a Traditional Society: The Case of the Sudan by Gabriel Warburg. London: Frank Cass, 1978. Pp. 253 + xi.

A Textbook on Muslim Law by David Pearl. London: Croom Helm, 1979. Pp. 317, bibliography, legislation, index and glossary. £14.95 (hardback), £6.95 (paperback).     

Narendra Modi’s Pakistan Policy: A Case of Old Wine in Old Bottles

This article examines India’s policy towards Pakistan since Narendra Modi became prime minister. At certain times, India has engaged in talks with Pakistan on various bilateral issues. At other times, it has adopted a hardline approach and canceled talks, stating that Pakistan had not demonstrated any sincerity in wanting to end cross-border terrorism against India. Modi’s critics have described his ‘on–off’ talks policy on Pakistan as flawed, confused and visionless. Is Modi’s Pakistan policy riddled with inconsistencies? Why has he not displayed the same pragmatism that is evident in his other diplomatic engagements when it comes to Pakistan? What explains his hardline approach? This paper argues that reconciliation with Pakistan remains a challenge due to persistent issues that adversely affect ties, namely the Pakistan army’s influence over the country’s foreign policy and meager bilateral economic ties. Expectations of a breakthrough in relations under the circumstances appear bleak. From the perspective of the Modi administration, adopting a cautious approach and maintaining a tough line, i.e. calibrating talks with action on cross-border terrorism by Islamabad, appears to be the more pragmatic option in the short term.     

Turmoil in the Taiwan Strait: Wellington Koo and ROC Foreign Policy 1953–1956

Turmoil in the Taiwan Strait addresses Ambassador Wellington Koo's role in Chinese foreign policy from 1953 to 1956 and his relevance in the larger Cold War context. In particular, it focuses on Koo's involvement in the 1954 Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and the 1955 Dachen Islands Crisis. This paper argues that, although Koo accomplished a fair amount during this time, he would have encountered fewer professional obstacles had he not represented Chiang Kai-Shek, who had become a controversial figure by the mid-1950s. At the same time, one can conclude that Koo creatively used media and meetings with statesmen abroad to shore up support for the Republic of China during this turbulent decade. This article attempts to provide another perspective on Koo, who has traditionally been understudied in the West. Furthermore, this work seeks to add a meaningful contribution to the historiography on cross-strait relations—particularly in the contemporary era.     

Policy Response to Declining Birth Rate in Japan: Formation of a “Gender-Equal” Society

Japanese women have been assigned to the private role of caretaker, but the Japanese government has made prominent efforts in constructing a “gender-equal” society during the past decade. This policy development has come under the context of falling birth rate. The Basic Law for a Gender-Equal Society and the measures taken by the government so far still fall short from enforcing gender equality and do not affirm equality as a human right. Since the pursuit of gender equality is a means to boost the birth rate, when there is a contradiction between these two goals, the former will be conceded.

Positioning Norm, Principle and Interest in Chinese Foreign Policy —— The Case of the Myanmar Issue

There are different driving forces behind Chinese foreign policy decision-making. Norms, principles, and interests and the subtle combinations of them, I argue in this paper, are the major driving forces on the input side, while the domestic situation of a specific country and international pressure undercut China’s policy deliberations. By contrast, the form of government of a specific country under discussion is not an important variable. In this paper, I use China’s policy toward Myanmar as a case study. The findings prove that the integration of norms, principle and practical interests has formed the powerful impetus that drives China’s policies toward Myanmar. Among these factors, the interests China has identified in general and stability on its “doorstep” in particular play a dominant role, while the norm of human security and the principle of non-interference are embedded in its policy deliberations.     

Foreign Policy “On the Cheap”: Latvia’s Foreign Policy Experience from the Economic Crisis

This article assesses whether the reduction of budgetary allocations to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Latvia in 2008–2012 led to more modest foreign policy in the sense of both objectives and execution. After assessing four goals of Latvian foreign policy since 2008 – regional cooperation, bilateral development cooperation, facilitation of Latvia’s economic interests abroad, and relations with the Latvian diaspora – the authors conclude that the decrease in funding for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had little impact on Latvia’s ability to achieve foreign policy objectives.     

Reading the Trump Administration’s China Policy

The policy toward China under the Trump Administration is a rare combination of the toughest part of that of the Democratic Party, which is trade, and of the Republican Party, which is national security. The National Security Strategy by the Trump Administration defined China and Russia as competitors. It is the first time for the US Government to be harsh against both China and Russia (the Soviet Union included) since the late 1960s. Though trade is by far the most salient aspect of President Trump’s confrontational China policy, it is in fact a whole-of-the-government approach or pushback that the US government is taking with China, which means that not just the White House but various Departments and the Congress are tough with China, dealing with many issues from trade to human rights to national security. The President might actually be the softest link, almost exclusively focusing on trade. This might be a historic turnaround in US policy toward China.     

What Determines Foreign Policy in Latin America? Systemic versus Domestic Factors in Argentina,Brazil, and Mexico, 1946–2008

Is it domestic politics or the international system that more decisively influences foreign policy? This article focuses on Latin America's three largest powers to identify patterns and compare outcomes in their relations with the regional hegemon, the United States. Through a statistical analysis of voting behavior in the UN General Assembly, we examine systemic variables (both realist and liberal) and domestic variables (institutional, ideological, and bureaucratic) to determine their relative weights between 1946 and 2008. The study includes 4,900 votes, the tabulation of 1,500 ministers according to their ideological persuasion, all annual trade entries, and an assessment of the political strength of presidents, cabinets, and parties per year. The findings show that while Argentina's voting behavior has been determined mostly by domestic factors and Mexico's by realist systemic ones, Brazil's has a more complex blend of determinants, but also with a prevalence of realist systemic variables.