南高加索安全复合体的生成困境探析

苏联后期以来,南高加索地区一直是世界最动荡的地区。使用地区安全复合体理论,来考察冷战后影响南高加索安全的独立政治行为体,可以认为,南高加索地域的无政府状态,是因其处于俄罗斯与欧盟两个安全复合体夹缝之中而产生的。欧盟、俄罗斯、土耳其和伊朗在当地维持权力平衡状态,主权行为体的权力弱势以及大陆品性促成的国家间关系文化,导致南高加索形成了无结构的安全态势。各国难以解决的分离问题以及国际势力对南高加索国家分离问题不恰当的冲突管理,导致南高加索地区冷冲突长期存在。俄罗斯、欧盟与美国在南高加索地区的博弈,影响了南高加索地区因分离问题而产生的冲突的解决。较之于中亚国家,南高加索独立的安全复合体较难形成。     

和平是一种人际关系状态--读桑德斯的《公众和平进程:通过长期对话化解民族冲突》

冷战结束后,在世界许多地区,民族冲突此起彼伏.国际社会和各国政府应付这类问题的方式往往是斡旋、促成冲突各方谈判、签订和平协议等.实践表明,这种做法并没有从根本上消除冲突.美国凯特林基金会国际事务部主任哈罗德·桑德斯博士在<公众和平进程:通过长期对话化解民族冲突>一书中,总结自己的工作经历,阐述了公众在化解种族冲突中的作用,并对公众如何发挥作用提出了一整套可以具体应用的理论框架,为解决民族冲突、消除族裔隔阂提出了新视角、新方法.     

中菲关系：波澜起伏又一年

中菲关系：波澜起伏又一年晓林１９９５年新年伊始，中菲关系因南中国海领土主权争端而骤然紧张，成为国际社会为之瞩目的新闻事件，后经中菲双方的和平磋商，一场风波归于平静。一、风波乍起１９９５年１月，菲律宾政府突然攻击我国侵占菲领土，对菲国家安全构成威胁，其...     

"9·11"以来南中国海形势综述

“9·11”之后,南中国海局势有了新的发展,从可能爆发冲突走向了和平与合作。尽管有一些小的摩擦如越南开辟旅游航线、修建飞机跑道等,但合作是主流:先是签署了《南中国海各方行为宣言》,接着有中菲合作协议,最后是中、越、菲的三方合作协议。这一切都预示着南中国海的未来合作与和平的前景。     

美国对华战略规锁下的贸易冲突博弈路径选择

特朗普执政后,美国对华战略逐步由“接触”转向“规锁”,中美经贸关系也因此发展到了摩擦频现甚至是冲突对抗的新阶段。美国对华战略规锁本质上是要遏制中国在科技进步和国家实力等方面的崛起,以维护其霸权地位。贸易冲突作为美国对华战略规锁最直接的手段之一,在一定程度上反映了其国内利益集团与党派之间的斗争。特朗普政府为了获得国内政治支持,推出了严重扭曲的对华贸易政策。文章从美国对华战略规锁的视角,运用多重博弈论方法对中美贸易冲突进行了路径选择分析并认为,囚徒困境中“以牙还牙”策略下的博弈双方均实施损人损己的策略,无论采取“以牙还牙”、冷酷触发还是无限拖延,博弈双方的最优策略都是通过贸易谈判实现继续合作;双方只有通过有效谈判,逐步取消加征的贸易壁垒,才能达成协议并获得最大收益。基于博弈结果的情景分析与中美第一阶段经贸协议内容,文章为破解中美贸易冲突困境以及未来防范提供了战略参考和政策启示。     

中美建交与两国在朝鲜半岛互动模式的转化

从国家互动理论的视角来考察中美与朝鲜半岛问题是一种有益的学术尝试。朝鲜战争使中美长期处于冲突型互动模式,直至中美建交,两国在朝鲜半岛的互动模式开始转化。中美建交虽然没有立即使两国在朝鲜半岛互动的性质发生转变,但建交给两国领导人带来的认知变化、直接政治互动的增多及两国朝鲜半岛政策的局部调整,为双方在朝鲜半岛进行的合作性互动提供了契机,由此,中美在朝鲜半岛的互动由建交前的冲突型互动逐渐向竞争型互动转化。     

习近平中美关系论述的理论内涵与现实意义

习近平主席从构建人类命运共同体的高度定位中美关系,认为在和平发展成为时代主旋律、世界各国和各国人民发展空间不断扩大、共同利益日益增多、相互依赖日益加深的背景下,中美两国完全可以在社会制度不同的情况下通过构建不冲突、不对抗、相互尊重、合作共赢的新型大国关系,走出一条不同于历史上的大国冲突对抗的新路。中美两国合则两利,斗则俱伤,合作而非对抗符合两国和两国人民的共同利益和心愿,符合世界各国和各国人民对世界和平与稳定的共同向往,符合时代发展潮流,是中美关系发展的唯一正确选择,也是两国应始终坚持的大方向。双方应从现实出发有针对性地采取不同举措,切实推进互利共赢,深化全方位利益交融格局,为发展以协调、合作、稳定为基调的中美关系筑基固本,积厚成势。     

菲美安全合作及其对中国安全环境的影响分析

菲律宾是第一个表示支持美国反恐斗争的亚洲国家,反恐战争使双方之间的安全合作关系迅速升温,用美国总统布什的话说,美菲在反恐战争中已经是"军事同盟".本文分析了菲美安全合作关系迅速升温的原因、影响,并针对菲美安全合作对中国安全环境的影响提出了一些政策建议.     

近期中越海上问题与中越关系简析

近年来，中越两国在南海问题上时而出现一些摩擦，中越关系因为这些摩擦一直在曲折中保持发展，集中体现为双方高层间保持交流与互动。同时，中越双方还达成一系列共识，从大局和战略高度出发，推进双方全面战略合作伙伴关系，双方还愿妥善处理海上问题，维护南海和平与稳定。尽管中越双方已达成诸多原则共识，但越方在落实海上问题原则共识上需表...     

布什政府的中东政策研究

布什政府的中东战略服务于反恐与民主改造中东这两大互相联系的目标,而其核心的环节是伊拉克,也就是武力改造伊拉克,民主改造整个中东.到2007年这种政策走入了困境.布什政府遂调整政策:重启巴以和平进程,推动以色列改善与穆斯林世界的关系;在推广民主方面放松对阿拉伯国家的压力,在整个大中东地区建立孤立和遏制伊朗的联盟.而这种转变的突出事例是2007年11月安纳波利斯会议.但巴以和平进程由于诸多原因鲜有进展.     

Coercive Diplomacy: Israel,Transjordan and the UN—a Triangular Drama Revisited

The Arab states suffered humiliating defeats at the hands of Israel during the first Arab–Israeli war. Immediately following the war, Israel made brilliant and shrewd use of diplomacy to achieve its goals at the negotiating table, much as it had previously used armed force. Israel refused to negotiate with a united Arab negotiation team, preferring to isolate the states, picking them off one after the other. The Israeli–Transjordanian talks differed radically from the other armistice negotiations. Here, two parallel tracks were followed. At Rhodes, the two countries negotiated openly under UN auspices, while in Jerusalem and at King Abdullah's palace in Transjordan, representatives of the two countries held secret bilateral talks. Israel masterfully used the context of these talks to maximise its gains, using military operations to create ‘facts on the ground’, combined with direct coercion in the shape of blackmail, while taking full advantage of international power structures and abusing the trust that King Abdullah had placed in personal relations. The UN Acting Mediator, Ralph Bunche, was aware of the secret back channel, where the clearest cases of coercion took place. Physically and mentally exhausted by the protracted negotiations, he allowed the secret talks to progress despite his dislike of the outcome. The British government, at the time the protector of Transjordan, was unable to assist its client for fear of falling out with the USA, while the US government, in many ways the protector of Israel, maintained an equally ‘hands off’ stance because the talks concerned only an armistice, not a peace treaty. Already at this early stage in their relations, the power asymmetry between Israel and the Arab states was the main reason the parties could not arrive at a peaceful, sustainable solution. This article reinvestigates this diplomacy by using a combination of US, Israeli, British and UN archives, as well as the almost untouched Ralph Bunche diary.     

From Rebels to Rulers: The Challenges of Transition for Non-state Armed Groups in Mindanao and Myanmar

This article presents a critical comparison of the ongoing peace processes in the southern Philippines and Myanmar (Burma). It does so by examining two key armed groups: the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) on Mindanao, and the Karen National Union (KNU) in Myanmar. We identify common elements that help to explain the relative – albeit incomplete – success of these two groups in navigating their respective peace processes. The MILF and KNU are ethnonationalist armed groups struggling for self-determination against states that are experienced by ethnic minority communities as culturally alien, and economically and politically dominant. Both conflict actors are characterized by complex combinations of “greed” and “grievance” factors but nevertheless enjoy significant (albeit contested) political legitimacy among the communities they seek to represent. We explore the complex relationships between armed ethnic groups, conflict-affected communities, and civil society actors. We argue that engagement with civil society is a key element of success in the Mindanao peace process, which could be replicated in Myanmar. We examine the roles and changing nature of the state in the Philippines and Myanmar, and contrast the degrees of international involvement, as key variables in these peace processes. We observe that negotiations of comprehensive peace settlements are threatened by “the tyranny of elections” in Myanmar (2015) and the Philippines (2016), and observe the importance of including national parliaments in peace processes in a timely manner. The peace process between Manila and the MILF represents a rare example of a Muslim minority pursuing its political objectives through structured dialogue. The article focuses on the challenges faced by armed groups moving from insurgency to reinvent themselves as credible political actors and governance authorities. Our analysis draws on peace-building literature, specifically the phenomenon of “rebel governance.”     

Understanding Israel's Long Conflict in Lebanon: The Search for an Alternative Approach to Security During the Peace Process

The Arab‐Israeli peace process pointed to a resolution of the Middle East's most persistent conflict, as the Rabin and Peres governments developed a sensitivity to the Arab‐Israeli ‘security dilemma’, but by 1996 the process was deadlocked. Events stalled progress, but so did ingrained attitudes that continued to shape policy that was inconsistent with the peace process. The following article explains some of the Realist norms and values at the root of security thinking in Israel, and charts their inertia in Israeli policy during the peace process, focusing on its approach to Lebanon. The article gives an insight into why Rabin and his successors struggled to find an alternative policy towards Lebanon, and how this prolonged the Arab‐Israeli conflict. The efforts of the Netanyahu and Barak governments to find a solution to the policy problem of Lebanon are outlined.     

Oil,War and European Initiatives for Peace in the Middle East 1973–74: British Attitude and Perspective

The Arab–Israeli wars since 1948 resulted in several peace treaties between Israel and its neighbours brokered by the US, the Soviet Union and European countries in an attempt to achieve a just and lasting peace settlement in the Middle East. All efforts however proved ultimately futile, with the resumption of war several years after each peace treaty had been signed. For example, after the Six Day War of 1967, all parties agreed to accept a peace treaty based upon United Nations Resolution 242. However, six years after the tabling of the resolution, war broke out again on October 1973. Another long process of peace settlement ensued which culminated in the Camp David Accords, brokered by President Jimmy Carter. These peace accords, signed between President Anwar Sadat of Egypt and Menachem Begin of Israel on 17 September 1978, led directly to the Israel–Egypt Peace Treaty of 1979. Despite its success, the 1979 treaty yet again failed to achieve the just and lasting peace settlement that had been expected. In all these treaties, the core issues of the conflict, such as the Palestinian refugee problem and the status of East Jerusalem, failed to be resolved. This article examines the British attitude and perspective towards the peace settlement after the 1973 war, focussing on the proposal for an International Peace Guarantee and the initiative of the Euro-Arab Dialogue. Based upon declassified archival records of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office available at the National Archives in England, it unveils the attitude of the British government towards the UN Resolutions as well as its collective initiatives with the European Community to establish a just and lasting peace settlement in the Middle East.     

2011年菲律宾经济、政治与外交形势回顾

2011年的菲律宾,经济总体表现不如预期;在国内政治方面,政府三权之间冲突不断引发宪政危机。此外,政府与国内分裂势力之间的谈判进展也不顺利,和解之路依然任重道远。外交方面,对外关系处于急剧变动时期,菲中关系喜忧参半,菲美、菲日关系急剧升温。     

Evolving structure of collective bargaining in Turkey (1990–2005)

ABSTRACT

Following the June 1967 Six-Day War, the Soviet Union and Britain invested significant efforts in rehabilitating their relations with the Arab countries, notably Egypt. While both supported the withdrawal of Israel from the Arab-occupied territories, the two countries differed over the nature of the settlement. Still, at the UN Security Council, the Soviet Union supported the British draft resolution for solving the Middle East conflict. Cold War interests and competition over influence in the Middle East, however, led the Soviets to launch a public campaign against British policy in the Middle East and prevented the two countries from joining efforts to bring about a breakthrough in the Arab–Israeli conflict.     

Malaysia: Unsung Hero of the Philippine Peace Process

Abstract

The October 2012 Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro between the Philippines and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front was a milestone in the peace negotiations. Attributing this success solely to Philippine President Benigno Aquino III's popularity fails to account for Malaysia's peace facilitation. Keeping the talks on track appeared counterintuitive as Filipino public opinion often cast Malaysia as a dishonest broker. Contrary to popular belief, Kuala Lumpur's foreign policy eschewed support for Moro secession. More importantly, the effectiveness of the Malaysian-led International Monitoring Team as a peacekeeping force fostered peace in communities. This article illustrates how mediation and local-level peace can trump national-level rhetoric.     

Migrants' strategies of coping and patterns of accommodation in the oil‐rich Gulf societies: evidence from the UAE

This paper presents an overview of ethnographic documentation of the foreign migrants’ strategies and patterns of accommodation in the oil‐rich Arab Gulf socieites. Documentary evidence is drawn from the UAE in the form of short case studies of families and individuals of both Arab and Asian migrant groups as well as field observations. The evidence is presented as an illustration of similar processes taking place across the Gulf. The migrants investigated represent low‐income workers and a few middle‐income technicians and professionals. Globalization is used as a general guiding theoretical framework to provide integration and coherence to the modes of presentation and explanation of the ethnographic material. Particular attention is given to the differing political economics of the labour‐receiving and labour‐sending countries in order to account for the prevalence of certain strategies of coping among migrants, and also to explain the slight variations found among Arab and Asian migrants.     

Labour Demands,Regime Concessions: Moroccan Unions and the Arab Uprising

This article investigates how public employee unions mobilised to take advantage of Morocco's Arab uprising. Leveraging their positions as operators of public institutions, these unionists exploited the unrest to strategically advance their interests. Two points emerge from this account of state—labour relations in Morocco. First, a spike in labour contestation began in early 2010, presaging the unrest that rocked Moroccan cities in 2011. Second, the unions secured their demands through traditional tactics of labour mobilisation—joining street protests, exaggerating material demands, and threatening negotiation walkouts. This strategy, however, became more efficacious during the Arab uprising. Fearing urban riots that had historically grown from labour protests since the 1980s, regime elites conceded to union demands, many of which they had previously rejected in the 2000s.     

Democratic control of the armed forces: Lessons from East Asia

How and why do countries democratize? Why does the military intervene in politics? The development of a country from an authoritarian regime to a system of democratic governance is a process which has fascinated scholars and politicians alike. In the following article, Fidel V.Ramos, former president of the Philippines (1992–1998) and president of the Ramos Peace and Development Foundation, Inc., provides his own perspective on the role of the military in shaping and protecting a society, delving into his own experiences as a former army general and defense secretary. He also examines the rationale behind, and current status of, East Asian countries in the process of transformation from a military regime to a democratically governed society.