一种新的阐释美国外交政策的方法--读《美国外交政策及其如何影响了世界》

人们在对美国外交政策进行分析、阐释和预测时所面临的问题之一是 ,如何以一种适当的方法来解读错综复杂的当代美国外交政策。《美国外交政策及其如何影响了世界》① 一书体现了为应对这一问题而进行的努力。该书作者、美国对外关系委员会的美国外交政策高级研究员沃尔特·拉塞尔·米德向人们提出具有启迪意义的阐释方式。一米德在书中提出的一个核心论点就是 ,正确理解后冷战时期的美国外交政策 ,关键在于承认并理解美国的外交政策传统。米德认为 ,自美国独立以来 ,对外政策在美国的历史进程中发挥了重要作用 ,相对于其他大国 ,美国对外政…     

A US-Japan Foreign Policy Alliance for Myanmar

Rarely before has such a large and potentially consequential country tried to reform itself politically and economically as Myanmar is now attempting, following an extended period of extreme isolation and amid unprecedented international and digital connectedness that exists today. This is a challenge not only for Myanmar, but also for the United States and Japan as they try to facilitate this transformation in productive ways, in a coordinated fashion, and consistent with their own foreign policy and commercial interests. A pertinent question, therefore, is whether or not Washington and Tokyo are inclined and prepared to address Myanmar's transition as an alliance issue, and if they are, then what is an efficient and effective way to go about this task.

The answer is mixed, for despite their pursuit of many common interests, the policy priorities and policy making environments in the United States and Japan differ significantly. In simple terms, the United States has a “democracy first” agenda in Myanmar that sometimes limits its options, while Japan takes a more flexible approach in order to maximize engagement and business opportunity. Still, President Obama and Prime Minister Abe provided a mandate in April 2014 to strengthen alliance cooperation in Southeast Asia (and in Myanmar in particular), and the two countries have complementary strengths and local networks that can be leveraged more effectively for the benefit of all.

Despite US concerns about stalled political liberalization and human rights abuses in Myanmar, Washington should take a longer-term horizon for evaluating reforms and consider enhancing its leverage with Myanmar through more effective policy coordination with Japan (which is a major player in the country), rather than the maintenance or reapplication of sanctions.     

"保守主义理念与美国外交政策"讨论会综述

2002年8月24-25日,由上海国际问题研究所美国室和复旦大学美国研究中心"军备控制与地区安全"研究项目共同主办的"保守主义理念与美国外交政策"讨论会在上海举行,来自中国国际问题研究所、中国现代国际关系研究所、中国社会科学院美国研究所、上海国际问题研究所、北京大学、复旦大学、南京大学、香港大学、浙江大学和苏州大学的30余名专家学者出席了会议.整个会议在求实而又热烈的气氛中进行,取得了预期的效果.     

German Foreign Policy and the Libya Crisis

German foreign policy has come under scrutiny due to its decision to abstain in the vote on UN Security Council Resolution 1973 in March 2011 on the Libyan no fly zone. Germany's decision not to support France, the UK and the USA ensured that no common EU position emerged and NATO's response to the crisis proved difficult. German foreign policy was caught between enlarging its influence and role in crisis management and reserving the right to reject involvement in operations that do not fit with its national interest. Drawing on the work of Robert Gilpin, the article argues that Germany's decision to abstain on United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973 can be explained by understanding the cost/benefit calculations of the German government, pressured by the protracted Eurozone crisis.     

US Foreign Policy and the Korean War

Abstract

Sometimes called the “Forgotten War” because Americans pay so little attention to it, the Korean War was nevertheless a pivotal event in US foreign policy. Three themes will be integrated into this article as it analyzes Korean War policy. First, the Korean War heightened the debates and divisions among US foreign policymakers. If Japan’s 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor helped to silence these divisions, then President Truman’s handling of North Korea’s 1950 invasion of South Korea helped resurrect them. Second, while foreign policy goals are generally assumed to drive the objectives of war in the classic Clausewitzian sense, the opposite frequently occurred in Korea as changes on the battlefield drove policy objectives of officials in Washington. Third, although the Americans, Chinese and Soviets all worked assiduously to keep the Korean War limited to the Korean Peninsula, the war had repercussions far beyond the Korean battlefield. Its ramifications were felt in Taiwan, Vietnam, Europe and in US defense expenditures as well.     

俄罗斯的对外政策与中国

俄罗斯对外政策的制定与中俄关系的发展是中俄两国政界、学界都非常关注的问题。目前,普京政府奉行一种积极、独立、全方位、实用的对外政策。作为一种新型的,摆脱了意识形态束缚的战略协作关系,《中俄睦邻友好合作条约》将两国世代友好,永不为敌的思想,以法律形式固定下来。目前的中俄关系处于300年来最好的历史时期。     

小泉政府外交政策的走向及其动因

小泉政府的外交政策代表了21世纪初期日本对外战略的发展方向,事关亚洲及世界的和平与稳定.小泉政府的外交政策可以概括为:加强日美同盟,背靠美国,"借船出海";酝酿修改和平宪法,摆脱战后束缚,向"普通国家"过渡;在历史问题上态度更为强硬;兼顾亚洲,谋求建立日本-东盟关系新模式,争夺亚太事务主导权.小泉外交的主要影响因素有:日本长期以来谋求政治大国地位的战略考量;美国布什政府对日政策调整的牵动;日本国内经济政治和社会思潮现状的制约;中国经济增长对日本的刺激.     

Tracing Foreign Policy Decisions: A Study of Citizens' Use of Heuristics

Public opinion researchers agree that citizens use simplifying heuristics to reach real, stable preferences. In domestic policy, the focus has been on citizens delegating judgement to opinion leaders, notably political parties. By contrast, citizens have been held to deduce foreign policy opinions from their own values or principles. Yet there is ample scope for delegation in the foreign policy sphere. In this exploratory study I use a 'process-tracing' method to test directly for delegation heuristic processing in university students' judgements on the Iranian nuclear issue. A substantial minority sought guidance on foreign policy decisions, either from parties, international actors or newspapers. This was not always simple delegation; some used such heuristics within more complex decision-making processes. However, others relied on simple delegation, raising questions about the 'effectiveness' of their processing.     

新保守派内部关于美国外交政策的辩论

新保守派外交思想极大地影响了布什政府的外交政策。2004年开始,新保守派的两位重要人物弗朗西斯·福山和查尔斯·克劳瑟默之间就美国外交政策发生了一场激烈的辩论,内容涉及对美国实力地位的界定、对美国“现实威胁”的研判、美国应对威胁的策略和重建伊拉克国家的政策。本文在对这次辩论的内容和背景分析的基础上,得出结论认为,这次辩论的核心是新保守派内部小流派传统斗争的升级,将会引起新保守派内部的进一步分化;辩论的根源是新保守派成员力图防止其他派别扩大对美国外交政策的影响,确保新保守派对布什政府外交政策的影响力;辩论的实质是不同利益集团对布什政府外交政策主导权的争夺。作为新经济集团代言人,福山的观点将对美国未来的外交政策产生更大的影响。