China's Strategy in the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands Dispute: Issue Linkage and Coercive Diplomacy

Abstract

For almost four decades, China has disputed Japan's sovereignty of several small rocky islands in the East China Sea. Despite a June 2008 joint gas development agreement, China continues to claim sovereignty and the dispute is nowhere close to being resolved. This study proposes that China benefits from the endurance of the dispute because it can use territorial dispute threats to compel Japan to change its behavior or policy on other disputed issues. The results show that China gained concessions on other issues by using the territorial dispute as bargaining leverage in most of the 26 threats made between 1978 and 2008.     

美国关于危机管理的理论与实践 --以中美关系为例

美国从冷战时期开始就逐渐发展起一套危机管理的理论、机制和方式.中美危机管理是美国在国际政治中进行危机管理的重要组成部分.美国政府在中美危机管理中既运用其一般意义的危机管理理论和机制,也有一些独特的指导思想和方式.这些对中美危机控制的实践有重要影响.冷战结束后,中美两国在实践中都积累了一些危机管理经验,并开始建立某些危机管理机制.由于政治制度、文化、传统的不同,中美两国现有危机管理机制差异较大,需要较长时间的磨合与适应.影响中美危机管理的主要因素包括实力对比与国家利益的关系、危机的结构、各自国家的对外战略、国内政治因素、盟国和盟友关系、文化和价值观念等.     

The Political Consequences of National Crisis Management: Micro-Level Evidence from German Voters during the 2008/09 Global Economic Crisis

How does national crisis management affect the electoral fortunes of coalition governments? Drawing on micro-level data from just before the 2009 federal elections in Germany, this article investigates how voters' evaluation of specific policies against the global financial crisis affected approval of and voting intentions for the then-governing grand coalition. We find that voters in favour of the two most prominent anti-crisis policies, the car-scrap bonus and the public guarantee for banks, were more likely to approve of and to vote for the two incumbent parties. These evaluations of specific policies influenced individuals' vote choice in addition to their assessments of the economic situation more generally and in addition to party identification. This suggests that even in the greatest economic turmoil with blurred political responsibilities, government parties can win or lose voters through the implementation of specific economic policies.     

Crisis,Routine, Consolidation: The Politics of the Mediterranean Migration Crisis

The current ‘migration crisis’ is framed as a moment of reckoning in the EU’s dealings with its Mediterranean neighbourhood. Yet to what extent is crisis the most useful tool to account for migration and European border control practices in the current context? An exclusive focus on crisis, we argue, is misleading. To a large extent, the current crisis management builds on pre-existing practices and enables their consolidation. For us this is an invitation to discuss the relation between crisis, routine and consolidation in Euro-Mediterranean migration policies and practices. This intervention shows how ‘crises’ are spatio-temporally limited and used to further pre-existing migration control practices and techniques of governing. As such we interrogate what it means to talk of crisis versus routine in the field of Mediterranean security practices.     

The New Gulf Order: Crisis,Mediation, and Reconciliation

The longevity and depth of regional challenges in the Middle East have elevated political and security concerns to a new level within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in recent years. Three conflicting worldviews have confronted one another, resulting in debilitating consequences for the region. Increasing fragmentation of Arab politics, in turn, has engendered attempts at enforced Arab unity that have ultimately failed, further dividing and destabilizing the regional order. This article delineates the background of the Gulf crisis of 2017 within the broader context of the Arab Spring and analyzes the ensuing attempts at mediation, the US role in the region, political developments in Kuwait and Oman, normalization efforts with Israel, and the recent resolution of the Gulf crisis by examining various actors’ political roles.     

生命危机与阶层危机——对美国中镇一个中产阶级家庭的个案研究

基于对美国中镇一个中产阶级家庭居家临终关怀的参与观察,在生命危机的特殊语境下,从家庭层面呈现当下美国中西部“铁锈带”中产阶级的生活状况。当下美国社会的中产阶级危机不仅是特定文化或者宏观政治、社会或经济政策的后果,更是个体化的、缺乏资产和其他依托的中产阶级自身脆弱性的必然结果。生命危机和阶层危机叠加之下,平时无法被轻易感受到的、作为一种长期趋势的中产阶级的脆弱性,呈现得更为明显。     

世界粮食危机的特征、成因与对策研究

2008年以来,一些东南亚国家粮价持续高涨,引起世界各国粮食市场供不应求,出现了席卷全世界的粮食危机.此轮世界性粮食危机呈现出上涨幅度大、持续时间长、波及范围广、影响强度大的特点.文章剖析了世界粮价持续高涨的原因,并提出稳定粮价、维系粮食安全的具体措施.     

国际冲突调停的理论与方法争鸣——评《调停国际危机》、《国际冲突调停》与《国际调停互动》

调停作为一种第三方干预冲突方式,近年来在国际冲突管理和解决中发挥着越来越重要的作用。传统的调停研究路径主要关注国家行为体的调停活动。然而,随着冷战的结束以及非国家行为体如联合国等在国际冲突调停中的作用的不断加强,传统的国家中心主义路径在调停研究中受到了极大的挑战,并开始逐渐失去其主导地位。在这些新的路径引导下,产生了一大批新的经验研究成果。本文结合三部代表国际冲突调停研究新方法的最新著作,围绕调停的发生、过程和效果三个层面,比较系统地梳理了当前学界关于国际调停的最新研究成果,展示了他们在理论与方法上的争鸣。最后,本文评估了这些研究的主要贡献和不足之处,并指出了有待继续拓展的一些议题。     

The New Cabinet Crisis Management Center and the Leadership of the Prime Minister

In May 2001, a cabinet crisis management center was set up below the prime minister's new official residence. It is from here that Japan's national crises are now to be managed. In an era of constant flux, questions over the circumstances surrounding Japan's strategic security are being raised. Clearly, the structure of crisis management and legislation are crucial for a nation'ssecurity. In this article, Lt. Gen. Toshiyuki Shikata of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (retired) and professor of Law at Teikyo University, examines 30 international and domestic crises that Japan had to deal with in which the leadership of the prime minister determined the outcome. He describes the history of Japanese crisis management, pointing out the current problems and argues that in a post-Cold War era, Japan needs to confront the discrepancies in the structure of its security if it wishes to become a credible member of the international community.     

后金融危机的日本雇佣体系：数据、观点与趋势

始于上个世纪90年代前期的日本雇佣体系的变革由于缺乏系统性、整合性以及劳资双方的共识,从而使部分处于弱势地位的劳动者过多地承担了本应由企业和国家共同分摊的改革成本。2008年的金融危机呈现了非系统改革的脆弱性,引发了日本各界全面思考雇佣体系的危机感和使命感,开始对劳动时间的两极分化、非正式员工的社会排除现象、社会保障安全网、劳动者培训中政府与企业的责任定位等相关问题进行系统研究。     

The October Crisis of 1993: Context and Implications

An eminent British specialist on Russian politics analyzes the conflict between Boris Yel'tsin and his opponents that resulted in the bloody military showdown of October 3-4, 1993. Based upon materials gathered in Moscow during the events and on the author's personal observations and interviews, the article traces the origins and course of the wider conflict. It also interprets the implications of Yel'tsin's actions for the further development of democracy in Russia.