Anchoring the Peace: Civil Society Actors in Peace Accords and Durable Peace

Is peace more likely to prevail when the peace accord includes civil society actors such as religious groups, women's organizations, and human rights groups? This is the first statistical study that explores this issue. The article develops key claims in previous research regarding the role of civil society actors and durable peace, and proposes a set of hypotheses that focus on legitimacy in this process. The hypotheses are examined by employing unique data on the inclusion of civil society actors in all peace agreements in the post–Cold War period. The statistical analysis shows that inclusion of civil society actors in the peace settlement increases the durability of peace. The results further demonstrate that peace accords with involvement from civil society actors and political parties in combination are more likely to see peace prevail. The findings also suggest that inclusion of civil society has a particularly profound effect on the prospects for overall peace in nondemocratic societies.     

Work Together for Peace,Prosperity and a Beautiful Furore

Since China and the Republic of Korea established diplomatic ties in 1992, relations between the two countries have developed by leaps and bounds. Multi-level and multi-dimensional exchange and cooperation mechanisms have been set up in various areas and are functioning smoothly with sound momentum. The two sides are more closely related by mutual interest. Bilateral trade in 2013 broke US$27 billion, surpassing the total volume of trade between Korea and the US, Japan and the EU combined.     

From Aftermath to Peace: Reflections on a Photography of Peace

International Relations (IR) literature on the visual construction of the international does not systematically engage with the visualisation of peace. In this article, I make photographic discourses available to IR scholars interested in the visual construction of the international and invite IR scholars to substantialise these discourses based on their specialist knowledge on war, violence, conflict and peace. I engage with aftermath photography by challenging its almost exclusive focus on war and the legacy of violence. Furthermore, I engage with Fred Ritchin's notion of peace photography and Cynthia Weber's attempts at visualising peace. Problematising claims to universality, generalisability and causality, I emphasise that the relation between images and peace is episodic, not causal; that visions of peace, reflecting specific cultural configurations, cannot claim universal validity; and that peace photography has to move beyond aftermath photography's focus on the legacies of the past. Finally, I briefly look at the work of Joel Meyerowitz and Rineke Dijkstra, the one displaying aftermath as a beginning sustaining power, the other photographically accompanying a person's adaptation to a new, more peaceful environment.     

Preferences and the Democratic Peace

A debate exists over whether (and to what degree) the democratic peace is explained by joint democracy or by a lack of motives for conflict between states that happen to be democratic. Gartzke (1998) applies expected utility theory to the democratic peace and shows that an index of states' preference similarity based on United Nations General Assembly roll-call votes ( affinity ) accounts for much of the lack of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) between democracies. Oneal and Russett (1997b, 1998, 1999) respond by arguing that UN voting is itself a function of regime type—that democracy 'causes' affinity . Oneal and Russett seek to demonstrate their thesis by regressing affinity on democracy and other variables from a standard model of the democratic peace. I replicate results reported by Oneal and Russett and then extend the analysis in several ways. I find that the residuals from Oneal and Russett's regression of affinity remain highly significant as a predictor of the absence of MIDs. Further, significance for democracy is shown to be fragile and subject to variable construction, model specification, and the choice of estimation procedure.     

Globalisation,Reconciliation and the Conditions for Conserving Peace

This paper analyses the relationship between globalisation and peace. The first part focuses on the diachronic process by which world globalisation developed after the Peace of Westphalia by means of the mechanical and subsequently organic formation of globalisation. Globalisation is analytically conceptualised as a global market of instrumentalities in which everything, like the lingua franca, is common—culture, communication, transport. Globalisation is then analysed with reference to peace and conflicts. A starting point is the observation that globalisation needs peace and pacified environments, whereas peace does not depend on globalisation. To show this the author discusses the polysemy of peace, generated by the peace of tradition and modernity and the peace of good and goods. In terms of practical relations a key role is played by how these various conceptions of peace relate to ultimate and intermediate values. The range of conceptions of peace is applied to a model of four categories of national society and each of these categories is placed in relation with another, since these reciprocal relations are the condition generating world globalisation. The result of the comparison is that globalisation produces conflict because the different conceptions of peace prevalent in each society are unable to enter into dialogue with each other. In the real world contemporary globalisation is made possible and effective by a range of engines (political and military centres, and peacemaking centres–international organisations), control functions (individuals, organisations, public opinion, a worldwide creative “multitude”) and instruments (reconciliation, negotiation, a tendency in relations for intermediate values to prevail over ultimate values).     

朝鲜半岛和平协定与和平机制

2007年以来东北亚局势的重大变化,使签定取代1953年朝鲜半岛《停战协定》的《和平协定》时机日渐成熟。签定新协定的主体应是朝、韩、美、中四方。达成新协定的主要障碍在于实现持久和平的途径,尤其是美国的立场与政策。只有从"停战机制"转向签订《和平协定》,建立和平机制,东北亚地区的和平与稳定才能得到保障。     

Toward a Multiprocess Model of Rivalry and the Democratic Peace

In this paper we examine recent efforts to combine quantitative research on the democratic peace with research on interstate rivalry. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we highlight problems with separately analyzing the processes associated with rivalry and the democratic peace. Specifically, we specify a multiprocess model and demonstrate that previous research on this topic may overestimate the pacifying effect of democracy on enduring rivalries. Since pairs of democracies are unlikely to experience interstate rivalry in the first place, the true effect of joint democracy is difficult to ascertain in a censored sample of interstate rivals. Our simulation results are consistent with historical data analysis that suggests that the pacifying effect of democracy is most pronounced in the enhanced probability of jointly democratic dyads averting the onset of rivalry. More generally, this article fits into a larger body of research that examines the confounding effect of selection bias on world politics research.     

奥巴马政府的综合性和平理念与中东和平进程

为改变中东局势恶化和美国在阿拉伯国家受损形象,奥巴马提出综合性和平的构想和政策,即:推动巴勒斯坦建国,敦促巴、以履行和平路线图职责,改善美国同叙利亚和黎巴嫩的关系,说服沙特等中东其他国家共同参与,以实现中东永久和平。然而,巴以矛盾能否调和,阿拉伯国家能否重树对美国的信任和信心,政策构想能否得到以色列和美国内犹太人财团的认知以及伊斯兰激进派的认可,都有待观察。     

卡内基国际和平基金会

卡内基国际和平基金会(Carnegie Endowment forInternational Peace)是美国成立最早又颇有影响的基金会之一,也是卡内基家族的第二大基金会。其主要研究目的是:研究国家间战争与和平的原因,及如何解决国家间争端;从事实地调查,举办各种会议,出版刊物和各种研究报告,协助国内外其他民间研究机构合作研究某些国际问题,以寻求“全新的政策方法”;培养军备控制、地区安全和国际法等国际事务研究与活动人材等。基金会总部设在华盛顿,在莫斯科设有研究中心。     

Bushwhacking the Democratic Peace

The invasion of Iraq has been justified, ex post , as for the purpose of promoting the democratic peace. It does not, however, appear to have been a principal goal ex ante . Most democratic peace theorists, moreover, do not endorse democratic regime change by great-power external military intervention. Success is difficult to achieve (usually at high cost), and the conditions in Iraq were not promising even had the occupation been carried out more competently. Greater success in democratization has been achieved by UN peacekeeping operations, and by various regional international organizations using a variety of peaceful measures to ensure free elections, constrain authoritarian leaders, and empower democratic forces. International organizations, notably those whose membership is largely composed of democracies, are especially likely to succeed in promoting democracy.     

Strengthen Exchanges and Cooperation with Peace Organizations around the World under the Banner of Peace

At early 1980’s, based on analysis of the new changes, features and trends of the international situation, Comrade Deng Xiaoping came to the important conclusion that peace and development had become strategic issues with global significance of the contemporary world. It put an     

Peace amidst development: 1 a conceptual agenda for conflict and peace research

In recent years, the focus of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency/Cybernetics Technology Office (DARPA/CTO) has become increasingly applied in nature. Concurrently, an explicit concern with coordinating and integrating research and analysis has pervaded the DARPA/CTO milieu. These emphases mirror trends in certain segments of political science; both policy‐relevance and cumulativeness have emerged as prominent themes in disciplinary communication and research evaluation processes.¹     

Peace building and spoilers

As the UN Peacebuilding Commission begins to plan it work, it is important to consider how to deal with ‘spoilers’ as a threat to security: groups that actively seek to hinder or undermine conflict settlement. This paper takes a broad approach to the concept of spoiling and considers a wide range of actors as potential spoilers: not only rebel groups and insurgents, but also diasporas, governments and other entities. The authors demonstrate that imposed or ill-conceived peace processes can sow the seeds of spoiling, but that spoiler violence does not necessarily indicate that a peace process is doomed to failure.     

Democracy and Islam: Implications for Civilizational Conflict and the Democratic Peace

The extent to which democracy and Islam are mutually exclusive is tested empirically with implications for civilizational conflict and the democratic peace. Three measures of democracy are used: a political rights index, an index of liberal democracy, and a measure based on institutionalization. Environmental variables such as sea borders and rainfall that minimize external threat to democratic systems are found to predict better to the more rudimentary political rights index, while cultural variables, including Islam in a negative direction, are more clearly associated with liberal democracy. The measure of democratic institutionalization behaves in a manner intermediate between the two. Divergence of the structures of explanation for these measures suggests that conclusions concerning the likelihood of war between democracies can depend on the specific index of democracy employed. The absence of a significant negative association between Islam and the political rights index under controlled conditions suggests that the probability of civilizational conflict is low.     

Grasping the Commercial Institutional Peace

While the commercial institutional peace research program provides empirical evidence that international institutions, especially preferential trade arrangements, help reduce the incidence of militarized inter-state conflict, it fails to delineate clearly how such institutions matter. Building from the logic that low opportunity costs for fighting, private information, and commitment problems constitute important causes of war, this article explores three interrelated causal mechanisms. First, the state leaders' increased expectations about future commerce create an incentive for these actors to consider peaceful bargains as an alternative to costly war. Second, security coordination under the umbrella of a commercial institution provides fuller information about state military capabilities, thus making inter-state bargaining for dispute resolution more efficient. Third, in bringing together high-level state leaders on a regular basis, commercial institutions may create the trust necessary to overcome commitment problems in inter-state bargaining. I explore how these mechanisms have operated within the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Economic Community of West African States.     

Bringing Peace Into the Room

What are the essential qualities a person needs to be an effective mediator? In addition to understanding conceptual frameworks and mastering fundamental skills of mediation, what role do the personal characteristics of the mediator play in the resolution of conflict? Bringing Peace Into the Room is a groundbreaking collection of essays addressing these questions. In a thoughtful and provocative way, the authors ask us to examine ourselves and our field. They invite us to consider the ways in which our own individual development as human beings impacts the parties and cases with whom we work. Ultimately, the book challenges us to re‐imagine our roles as mediators by asking us to internalize and to embody the highest principles of our profession.     

Does Peacekeeping Keep Peace? International Intervention and the Duration of Peace After Civil War

This article examines international interventions in the aftermath of civil wars to see whether peace lasts longer when peacekeepers are present than when they are absent. Because peacekeeping is not applied to cases at random, I first address the question of where international personnel tend to be deployed. I then attempt to control for factors that might affect both the likelihood of peacekeepers being sent and the ease or difficulty of maintaining peace so as to avoid spurious findings. I find, in a nutshell, that peacekeeping after civil wars does indeed make an important contribution to the stability of peace.