A New Approach to the Analysis of Geo-Political Risk

Traditional geo-political analysis has a poor record. In particular it has problems in capturing the complex inter-relationships between key factors, and the positive and negative feedback loops which make prediction difficult if not impossible. This paper argues that new techniques, derived from complexity and network theory, offer powerful new tools for both analysis and strategic decision making. The paper focuses on fuzzy cogntive mapping. An illustrative example examines the prospects for disintegration in China. Although highly simplified, this example shows how this technique is able to derive conclusions difficult or impossible to achieve through traditional analysis, and its potential for strategic decision makers, whether in the private or public sector.     

Defending the Fortress? Assessing the European Union’s Response to Trafficking

In the early 1990s, the European Union (EU) initiated two strategies, one deepening integration, the other widening it, to combat the increasingly important soft security agenda. This article seeks to assess the effectiveness of the EU’s response to the new security environment and speculates as to whether the completion of one process makes the achievement of the other more difficult, if not impossible. One focus will be on the development of border management on the EU’s periphery. Are the applicant states sufficiently prepared for the task of acting as the EU’s external frontier guard? The reactions of existing member states is also put under the spotlight. Arguably, their failure to promote a more equitable burden sharing arrangement, coupled with the decision to maintain internal frontier controls with applicant states for a transitional period after accession, has made the task of securing a strong external frontier more difficult. The European Police Office (Europol) forms the centerpiece of analysis in relation to the deepening of integration. Its efficacy as a means of information exchange is examined, and the impact of enlargement is considered.     

关于中印美三边关系的一些思考

近年来，中印美三边关系成为国际社会关注的重大问题。本文对此进行了分析研究，认为印美结盟反华、中印结盟反美、中关结盟反印的可能性都不大，中印美三边关系有望长期维持平衡的态势。这对维护亚洲和世界和平十分有利。如果中印美能在多个领域开展三方合作，其意义将更为重大。     

Explaining and Forecasting Leaders' Decisions: A Poliheuristic Analysis of the Iran Hostage Rescue Decision

In an increasingly dangerous world, forecasting national leaders' decisions during crises is a central concern of policy analysts. But with a wide range of specific military responses available to leaders, pinpointing a likely decision can be difficult. This essay argues that the poliheuristic theory of foreign policy decision making is a useful tool for aiding policy analysts in forecasting the decisions of national leaders. The theory's emphasis on a noncompensatory decision dimension facilitates the elimination of many of the possible decision alternatives, reducing uncertainty. Then, surviving alternatives are weighed against additional, nontrivial dimensions, producing a likely decision. As an illustrative case, I examine Carter's decision to implement the hostage rescue mission, demonstrating that Carter ruled out alternatives that failed to satisfy criteria on the noncompensatory decision dimension—reelection. The president's final choice was selected from the remaining alternatives according to its ability to simultaneously maximize net benefits with respect to military and strategic concerns. Following a comparison of the analysis with compensatory models of decision making, I suggest a general forecasting framework rooted in the poliheuristic theory. The theory can be applied to international crises provided that policy analysts obtain information concerning (1) the leader's noncompensatory decision criteria, (2) the set of alternatives that satisfy those criteria, and (3) the expected net benefits of the remaining alternatives on other dimensions (i.e., the military and strategic dimensions).     

NATO,ballistic missile defense and the future of US tactical nuclear weapons in Europe

Abstract

Within the next few years, NATO will need to make a collective decision about the future of US tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) in Europe. While opinion about the value of these weapons is not as split as conventional wisdom might suggest, and while NATO will remain a nuclear alliance irrespective of this decision, balancing politics and strategy looks likely to be a difficult task. This decision is made far more complex by the determination of NATO officials to link the withdrawal of these weapons to reciprocal reductions in Russian TNW in Europe, and by the possibility of substituting the key strategic and political link they provide with a ballistic missile defense (BMD) system. This article shows how we have arrived at this position, highlights the potential benefits to NATO Europe of BMD, and considers the key questions that the Alliance will face in achieving this. Ultimately, this article shows how the future of TNW in Europe is likely to be linked to whether NATO values arms cuts with Russia, or the deployment of missile defenses, as its central priority.     

National Security and Imperial Defence: British Grand Strategy and Appeasement, 1930–1939

British grand strategy in the 1930s had two cardinal elements: security of the home islands and Imperial Defence. This article questions the view that Britain did not have a strategic commitment to the continent of Europe till late in the 1930s. It also provides an over-arching analysis of the two distinct but intertwined periods in the evolution of national strategy and Imperial defence in that decade: before 1930 till late 1937 built around the strategy of the balance of power; and from late-1937 till early 1939 built around the strategy of appeasement. Moreover, it is impossible to understand the high level debate within the British government over strategic issues without putting the domestic political situation into the context of the impact of the First World War on Britain's society and economy. Similarly, the development of the new international order created at the Paris Peace Conference – and its demise in the ‘hinge years’ of the early 1930s – also needs to be better understood in terms of how British grand strategy emerged in this period. A rational and realistic policy, appeasement was a tactical diplomatic manoeuvre; it had no place serving as the strategic basis of British external policy.     

Gender and development: a SAFE recipe

It is argued that an alternative strategy to women's involvement in development is the development of a whole "new dish, prepared, baked, and distributed equally" rather than acquisition of a "bigger piece of the pie." The issues of gender and development (GAD) involve women gaining power and control of the decision making processes. Past development has been too much of a "fixed menu" approach. Feminist development involves the satisfaction of the strategic needs of women, an agenda-setting direction, flexibility, and empowerment (SAFE). Strategic gender needs were conceptualized first by Maxine Malyneaux. Within women's defined roles, there are needs for access to adequate and clean water supplies, nutrition, health care, and income. Women in development (WID) approaches are strong in serving practical needs. The SAFE approach combines both the strategic and practical needs of women. Some argue that a focus on strategic and/or practical needs should be conceptualized in terms of changing women's position within a structurally unequal set of social relations. Some emphasize autonomy. The basic concepts of strategic needs is viewed as including the change in women's status and movement toward autonomy. Aid agencies and development groups have been mainstreaming WID and GAD over the past decade by integrating women and women's needs into administration, decision making, and the project cycle. Gender issues could be built into existing development paradigms or could change the existing development agenda with a gender perspective. It is argued that an agenda-setting approach is needed in order to assure that the strategic needs of women are incorporated. Flexibility and adaptation of approaches means that WID and GAD can be adjusted to all cultures. It is cited by Buvinic and Moser that welfare, equity, anti-poverty, efficiency, and empowerment are five ethical policy approaches. The policy approach of SAFE is that of empowerment or the knowledge and exercise of influence, power, and leadership in some or all social relations.     

Assessing the European Union’s strategic capacity: the case of EUNAVFOR MED Operation Sophia

This article argues that the European Union’s capacity to use an operational instrument for the purpose of an articulated objective constitutes an important, but conceptually neglected and empirically underexplored, element of its actorness. In order to fill this gap, the article introduces the concept of strategic capacity and develops an analytical framework for systematic empirical assessments thereof. Drawing on 22 qualitative expert interviews, the framework is applied to the EU’s maritime operation against human smugglers in the Central Mediterranean (EUNAVFOR MED Operation Sophia). The article finds that the EU so far has displayed a fairly low degree of strategic capacity in its fight against human smugglers. The article argues that this fairly low degree of strategic capacity is not to be ascribed to an institutional apparatus that is unfit for strategic action, but a decision on the part of political decision-makers to give weight to symbolic, as opposed to strategic, action. As a result, the operation has contributed little to the formal objective of disrupting and dismantling human smuggling networks in the Central Mediterranean. In some areas, it has even had an adverse effect on this objective.     

黑龙江省对俄经贸合作形势分析与预测

2008年黑龙江省继续推进对俄经贸科技合作战略升级，在对俄经济技术和投资方面取得了新进展。但1—9月，受多种因素的影响，对俄贸易额出现近年来的首次负增长，主要是对俄出口大幅下降。当前，中俄经贸合作站在新的起点上，既有新的机遇也面临着新的挑战。我们应对当前及今后一个时期的形势做出正确判断并进行科学决策，推动对俄经贸科技合作登上新台阶。     

“Now that the Milk is Spilt”: Appeasement and the Archive on Intelligence

This article assesses British intelligence and its effect on policy during the interwar years. It discusses the publically available documentation, which now includes almost all the material on the matter, though the data base has been permanently destroyed in significant ways. The paper traces the development of British intelligence between 1869–1939, involving the transition from a tradition to a system of intelligence, with the greatest change occurring during the Fist World War. The article assesses how, between 1914–39, intelligence was interrelated to bureaucratic politics, modes of decision making, and the formulation of strategic politics, modes of decision making, and the formulation of strategic policy. It discusses the structure and power of British intelligence agencies between 1919–39, their quality compared to rivals in other countries, and the impact on policy of their successes and failures. It concludes that intelligence, as an influence and a source of evidence, is essential to the study of diplomatic and strategic history, upon which its impact is complex and variable.     

全球安全治理视域下的自主武器军备控制

随着人工智能的飞速进展,不断智能化的自主武器日益显现出伦理和安全风险,使得限制或禁止自主武器成为全球安全治理领域的新兴议题。相比其他军控对象,自主武器军控进程在过去几年中获得较快推进,其中《特定常规武器公约》会议已决定设立政府专家组专门探讨自主武器问题。文章系统梳理了自主武器军备控制的概念、伦理和安全争议,旨在通过这种梳理更好地理解自主武器军控进程发展的动因,并对这一进程的未来走向做出预测。当前,自主武器军备控制的主要动因集中在道德层面,特别是让机器自主决策杀伤引发的伦理忧虑。而从安全层面看,自主武器蕴涵的安全风险在其他新兴技术领域同样存在,而发展和使用自主武器带来的战略红利依然显著,这使得主要国家推动自主武器军控的意愿并不强烈。在权力政治与道德政治的博弈下,自主武器军控在可预见的时期内将难以形成实质性成果,稍有可能的是通过“软法”等非约束性方式塑造一定的国际规范。在这个过程中,中国可以发挥更加积极主动的作用,在确保战略利益的同时营造有利的大国形象。     

中欧关系演进的内在逻辑:基于欧盟对华援助的视角

欧盟对华援助的主要表现在援助资金呈递增趋势、援助领域由早期的农业援助转向经济和社会改革领域、援助项目要按照"标准化"要求操作等三个方面。从援助特征可以看出欧盟对华援助背后的政治经济逻辑正好吻合了新自由主义对国际政治经济生活进行必要干预的主张,把欧盟成员国和欧盟内部的社会经验在援助国得以拓展,使其经济运行和社会秩序朝着欧盟所拟定的方向发展,这也恰好表明欧盟对华援助的行为不可能偏离自利立场。但是,中国在坚持独立的外交政策和方针下,使得中欧关系逐步朝务实性方向发展,在合作基础上解决面临的共同难题,谋求长期的战略性合作伙伴关系依然符合中欧关系发展的趋势。     

Indian and Chinese foreign policy imperatives and strategies vis-à-vis Afghanistan

In this article, the authors conduct a comparative review of the strategic imperatives driving Sino-Indian policy on Afghanistan in the post-2014 scenario. The article argues that divergent strategic imperatives make cooperation difficult and/or unlikely. This analysis is based on a broader consideration of both contemporary history and geopolitical dynamics shaping the foreign policy considerations of these two countries, and an assessment of the impact of ongoing bi-lateral and regional aspirations. The authors begin by highlighting the salient dynamics that have historically characterized and driven Indian and Chinese foreign policy in general and on Afghanistan. They find that Afghanistan, although not a primary focus of either state’s foreign or security policy, historically, is increasing in importance for both; India and China compete on a range of economic and security issues.     

印度的海洋战略及印美在印度洋的合作与矛盾

作为主要的印度洋国家,印度长期以来寻求一项确保自身安全和经济利益的大国海洋战略,它体现了印度立足南亚、面向印度洋、争做世界大国的战略图谋。冷战结束以来,特别是随着印度综合国力的发展以及追寻其“大国梦”的步骤加快,印度对印度洋的安全需求持续增大,将确保海洋战略利益、特别是保证印度洋海上石油通道的安全视为保护其基本国家战略利益的头等大事。鉴于印度洋对印度和美国的重要战略意义,印度在实施其海洋战略过程中既会与美国保持合作,同时也可能引发相互间的利益冲突。     

新形势下大湄公河次区域经济合作（GMS）发展趋势分析

自1992年亚洲开发银行正式启动大湄公河次区域经济合作（GMS）~X来，次区域合作已走过20年的历程。20年来，GMS合作领域不断拓展、深化，已成为亚洲区域经济合作机制及南南合作的一个成功范例。在新的发展形势下尤其是桥头堡建设战略下，GMS新十年合作的战略重点将出现一些新的变化，并呈现出新的发展趋势。     

Exit Britain: British Withdrawal From the Palestine Mandate in the Early Cold War, 1947–1948

The British decision to withdraw from the Palestine mandate in 1947–1948 may at first glance appear contradictory to British strategic interests. The Middle East and Palestine were vital to Britain's Cold War strategy, and its government repeatedly stated the need for a continued British presence in the region to prevent Soviet expansion. Why then withdraw from Palestine just as the Cold War started? The traditional explanation is that Britain withdrew because of economic exhaustion and its inability to remain a great power. But this article shows that economic and strategic considerations both contributed to the decision to withdraw. Britain's involvement in Palestine threatened to undermine its relations with the independent Arab states, and the decision to withdraw from Palestine was therefore taken in the hope that this would secure Britain's position in the rest of the Middle East.     

安全化操作与美国全球供应链政策的战略性调适

2021年美国拜登政府施政伊始就推动了一系列关于供应链的新政策,特别是以“国家安全”为叙事手段强化国内产业政策,扶持先进制造业和新兴技术研发,并联合安全盟友构建关键产业国际供应链联盟。与特朗普政府相比,拜登政府的新供应链政策进一步强调了经济安全和国家安全并重的原则。对于这种政策转变的本质,相关研究出现了战略性转变和功能性转变等两种观点。从理论逻辑看,经济政策的安全化分析路径,可以剖析全球供应链的安全效应,明晰经济和安全策略组合的类型,从而进一步揭示美国新供应链政策“混合式安全化操作”的生成机制。从政策实践看,拜登政府针对供应链问题的安全化操作主要呈现两个新的特点,一是新冠肺炎疫情冲击之下的兼顾供应链安全与大国战略竞争,二是以国内投资重塑产业链,并配合国际运作以形成关键产业供应链联盟,从而对战略对手实施经济权术。这些新政策面临着战略利益和市场力量之间的张力,存在诸多制约,其带来的政策冲击也为后疫情时代全球经济的稳定和复苏增加了不确定性。     

The Failure of the Indian Federation's Process of Civic Nation Formation

The States Reorganization Act of 1956, which reformed India's state boundaries primarily along linguistic lines, derailed civic nation creation in postindependence India. Thereafter, regional politicians were given a linguistic community with occasional ethnic congruence as their vote bank. This post-1956 political reality incentivized regional identity formation for regional politicians consolidating political power and eroded the influence of the independence era English-educated secular elite. In addition, the 1956 act made it a strategic rational choice for regional political elites not given their own states, to fight for the formation of new states. The hypothesis demonstrated in this article follows: The States Reorganization Act of 1956 made it the rational choice for regional political and intellectual elites to consolidate power based upon linguistic regional identities, making the central independence era goal of an overarching civic nationalism for the Indian federation impossible.     

Strategy and Selection in International Relations

It is widely recognized that many of the samples we use for statistical analysis in international politics are the result of some selection process. Not surprisingly, selection models are becoming increasingly popular. At the same time, the role of strategic interaction has begun to play a more important role in statistical analyses. However, it has not been clear how statistical strategic models and selection models relate to each other, or what the effects are of employing one when the other is the more appropriate model. In this article, I 1) clarify why international relations scholars cannot shield themselves from selection bias simply by assuming their results are limited to a given sample; 2) show how recent statistical strategic models relate to traditional selection models and generalize the two sets of models by deriving a correlated strategic model; and 3) examine the effects of misspecifying either correlated errors or strategic interaction. My results indicate that failure to model the strategic interaction produces worse specification error than failure to account for correlated disturbances. In fact, traditional bivariate probit models appear to be superior only when states are almost completely uncertain about each others' preferences.