俄美新核裁军条约:变化、意义与变数

俄美新核裁军条约将使双方部署的战略核弹头减少百分之三十,在弹头和运载工具计数规则以及核查措施上都有别于以往的条约。新条约降低了两国战略核武库的超杀能力,提高了双方在新的战略核裁军进程中互信度,有利于强化核不扩散机制,为双方提供了继续裁减核力量的框架,对整个俄美关系的发展也有推动作用。然而,新条约的履约前景并不乐观。     

两次海湾战争中美国国民经济动员特点比较

冷战结束后，美国于1991年和2003年对伊拉克发动了两次非线式、非接触、非对称性的现代化高技术局部战争，即两次海湾战争。两次海湾战争时隔12载，美国战争动员完成了从冷战时期的大规模全面战争动员向冷战后局部战争动员的演变。第一次海湾战争之时，处在全面战争状态的战争动员，尚不能适应高技术局部战争的需要；     

Issue Frames and the Political Outcomes of Transnational Campaigns: A Comparison of the Jubilee 2000 Movement and the Currency Transaction Tax Campaign

Since the end of the Cold War, a large number of transnational advocacy networks (TANs) have launched campaigns focusing on a number of different global issues. Some of these campaigns have been quite successful in influencing global public policy, while others have not. What accounts for differences in TANs' ability to shape the global policy process? How can we explain the variation in TAN campaign outcomes? To answer these questions, I draw on the concept of framing, which has been used to explain social movement mobilisation and outcomes, and apply it to two TAN campaigns that have had different outcomes: Jubilee 2000 and the Currency Transaction Tax campaign. I argue that effective framing strategies, i.e. the use of issue frames that resonate with international norms and values and provide compelling analyses and policy proposals, is one explanation for the variation in the outcomes of these two TAN campaigns.     

Identity,Individualism, and Activism beyond the State: Examining the Impacts of Global Citizenship

The concept of global citizenship has risen to prominence through its use by policy makers, activists, and scholars, who employ the idea of global interconnectedness to encourage individuals to actively engage with transnational issues. Proponents of global citizenship claim that it will promote greater global unity and equality of rights, and even generate a new, post-national identity. Yet self-professed global citizens operate in a transnational realm marked by extreme disparities in power between the members of different states and economic classes. This article assesses whether global citizenship can live up to the claims of its adherents, or whether it will replicate the existing inequalities and moral hazard currently manifest in global policy-making. The article uses the work of T.H. Marshall to identify the conditions under which citizenship has generated equality and unity in the national realm and examines whether these conditions are present beyond the state. It then compares the resulting theory with global citizenship's observed impacts in transnational activism. It concludes that unity and equality of rights cannot be achieved globally in the absence of a commonly shared pool of social and economic resources and that, ironically, global citizenship may worsen existing power imbalances by legitimating elites' use of power.     

20世纪以来美对外战争中的经济因素概述

20世纪以来,美国共进行了8场重大的对外战争,包括两次世界大战,朝鲜、越南、海湾、科索沃和阿富汗战争,以及刚刚结束的伊拉克战争。这些战争加在一起长达20多年,这意味着在20世纪美国人将近1/4的时间都是在战争中度过的。与此同时,美国对外战争的频率也很高,从一战到此次对伊战争,几乎是平均每10年进行一场战争,特别是自20世纪90年代以来,更增加到平均每3年有一场战     

The Promise of Transnational NGO Dialogue: The Argument and the Challenges

Over the past few decades, a vast body of literature has emerged that strives to conceptualise transnational relations between non-governmental organisations (NGOs). This article explores this debate by mapping out two theoretical approaches that can be broadly defined as an ideational and a materialist approach. Particular attention is paid to the different ways in which one can understand the mutual impact of NGOs operating domestically and transnationally. The paper argues that combining the insights from both approaches improves our understanding of NGO dialogue.     

Ethics, Foreign Policy, and Liberal Wars: The Role of Restraint in Moral Decision Making

Can morality be a basis for making foreign policy? What happens when it is? The dangers in using morality to justify violence are discussed in the light of the just war tradition and liberalism. An ethical case for the importance of restraint in moral decision making, especially with regard to unnecessary but desirable wars within liberalist approaches to foreign policy, is presented.     

世界与中国、中国与世界:过去30年,未来30年

2008北京奥运的完美落幕进一步突出了中国改革开放以来的发展成就,标志着中国的国力、国势、国运进入新的上升轨道,中国与世界的关系再度成为国际热点话题。中国的发展、崛起将引起国际格局、国际体系发生什么样的变化?在变化中的世界,尤其是在中国发展本身就构成国际变局重要组成部分、国际上"中国威胁论"及"中国责任论"等此起彼伏的情况下,中国又面临着什么样的新任务、需要确立怎样的国家大战略、做出何种新的战略选择?要不要居安思危,继续坚持韬光养晦?对这些问题,不仅精英层在严肃思考,普通民众也极为关切。鉴此,《现代国际关系》杂志社2008年8月31日以"‘奥运后时代’中国与世界的关系"为题举办研讨会,邀请京津两地20多位相关领域专家、学者就上述问题展开深入讨论。现将会议主要观点辑录如下,以飨读者。     

The First Shot was the Last Straw: The Sinking of the T.S.S. Athenia in September 1939 and British Naval Policy in the Second World War

On 3 September 1939 the passenger liner Athenia, sailing from Liverpool to Montreal, was sunk by the German submarine U-30 with a loss of 112 lives. This action, while not intended by the German government, was in violation of Germany's commitments under the London Naval Treaty and it complicated its desire to keep hostilities confined to Poland. The British government and Admiralty, confronted with an attack on an unarmed passenger liner within nine hours of the declaration of war, and several freighters shortly thereafter, concluded that the German Navy intended to wage unrestricted submarine warfare. This article shows that as a result of the sinking of the Athenia, the government and the Admiralty implemented convoys within the first week of the war, sooner and more completely than had been intended. Naval ship building priorities were also subsequently adjusted to quickly provide escort vessels for the newly organized convoys.     

和谐世界视角下中国与世界关系的新变化与战略新选择

和谐世界代表了人类的美好理想,适应了时代潮流和人类社会未来的发展方向,否定了"强权即是公理"的霸权逻辑,主张通过民主协商、互利共赢、平等协作、求同存异的方式推动人类社会向和平繁荣的方向发展.和谐世界理论具有丰富而全面的内涵.这一理论也成为处理中国与世界关系的重要指导原则,我们要努力实现不同国家间经济、政治、安全、文明的和谐发展,建设民主、公正、和睦、包容的世界,从而实现"建设持久和平、共同繁荣的和谐世界"的总体目标.