布什主义、战争与美国经济

“9·11”之后 ,美国政府的国内外政策发生了重大变化。其标志之一就是“布什主义”的出台。2 0 0 2年 6月 1日美国总统布什在西点陆军军官学校毕业典礼上的演说作为“布什主义”的一个转捩点 ,他不仅在演说中引用马歇尔 194 2年于同校讲的一句话 ,“我们决心在这场可怕的斗争结束前 ,让我们的国旗被全世界公认为既是自由 ,也是压倒一切的力量的象征” ,更拓宽了马歇尔的寓意 ,要求把这面象征“自由”和“压倒一切力量”的美国国旗从美国插到全世界。他说 ,“无论我们高举国旗到何处 ,它不仅代表我们的力量 ,也代表自由。我们国家的事业历来…     

Arms Negotiation,War Exhaustion,and the Credibility of Preventive War

Why do some states agree to suspend their weapons programs in exchange for compensation while others fail to come to terms? I argue that the changing credibility of preventive war is an important determinant of arms construction. If preventive war is never an option, states can reach mutually preferable settlements. However, if preventive war is not credible today but will be credible in the future, a commitment problem results: the state considering investment faces a “window of opportunity” and must build the arms or it will not receive concessions later on. Thus, agreements fail under these conditions. I then apply the theoretical findings to the Soviet Union’s decision to build nuclear weapons in 1949. War exhaustion made preventive war not credible for the United States immediately following World War II, but lingering concerns about future preventive action induced Moscow to proliferate.     

战争、和平与全球治理

战争与和平是人类社会面临的重大问题。战争的爆发与和平的实现既受国际政治经济因素的影响,也是国内政治力量相互作用的结果。裁军是决定战争与和平的重要因素,然而,当今国际社会在裁军方面的进展十分缓慢。随着全球化步伐的加快,尤其进入21世纪以来,国际安全形势令人担忧。大规模杀伤性武器的有增无减以及恐怖主义的蔓延继续威胁着国际社会,原先的国际治理逻辑已不再适用。为消除战争、增进和平,重塑全球治理机制的呼声愈加高涨。为此,国际社会需要引入新的治理机制,对影响国际安全的因素加以管理。世界各国日益加深的相互依赖意味着以议题关联为核心的治理手段能够发挥更大作用。为提升和改进全球治理的效果,国际社会必须引入具有动机的激励机制,建立起可信和可核查的制度,对违反协议的国家实施惩罚和制裁,这不仅是国际协议和国际行动成功的关键,也是确保全球治理有效性的不二选择。     

History, War, and the Future

This article aims to delineate several issues raised by an historically based approach to understanding the present and the future. Beginning with a discussion of the profound impact that drastic changes have had on the international environment, the article then outlines what history suggests about human nature's influence on the course of future events; the future of war; the nature of governance and the United States. This essay does not attempt to provide answers, but rather suggests how policy makers, strategists, and military leaders might think through the complex political and cultural questions they need to be asking in the making of strategy. This is the essential first step for Americans. If they fail to ask the right questions, most answers will prove irrelevant to the challenges of the future.     

J. R. Winkler,Nexus. Strategic Communications and American Security in World War I

Microstates are unique participants in the international arena. Many of the world's microstates are located in the Pacific basin and are characterized by limited natural and human resources. Because they are so small and isolated, the Pacific microstates are frequently overlooked diplomatically in the larger, international system. Conversely, diplomacy is often their only effective instrument of statecraft for making an impact within the international system on issues critical to their national interests.

In contrast to the belief that the microstates are mere pawns in international relations, this text will view the Pacific microstates as active participants in diplomacy by exploring their involvement in two broad strands of Pacific Rim diplomacy: ? The political struggle between the People's Republic of China and Taiwan for influence in the Pacific region, diplomatic recognition, and support in the United Nations and other international agencies.

? Fishing issues between Japan, the microstates, and other regional powers as illustrated within the International Whaling Commission.

The article will show that reciprocity is the key concept and mechanism governing their diplomatic arrangements with Taiwan and Japan. The conclusion suggests two ideas for these microstates in dealing with their larger neighbors on the above issues, and summarizes their active, rather than passive, diplomatic role in Pacific Rim international relations.     

伊拉克战争是"情报失误"还是蓄意发动?--写在伊拉克战争一周年之际

美国为了控制海湾地区,进而实现控制欧亚中南部乃至整个欧亚大陆的目的,从90年代起就蓄谋发动伊拉克战争.所谓伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤性武器的指责,不过是美国情报部门在布什政府授意下刻意捏造的借口.     

A. Adamishin and R. Schifter,Human Rights,Perestroika, and the End of the Cold War

The international community's March 2011 military intervention in Libya contrasts sharply to its reluctance during the preceding forty years to halt the Qadhafi regime's sponsorship of transnational terrorism and pursuit of WMD. American diplomacy, eventually supported by international sanctions, was a four decade effort to end Qadhafi's violent foreign policy. This commentary discusses how diplomacy and the American judicial process combined to achieve this successful outcome. Diplomatic and legislative efforts to compel Libya's payment to terrorism victims helped create judicial remedies enforceable in US Courts and ultimately, a bilateral claims settlement agreement that, while disappointing to the terrorism litigants, normalized relations between the Libya and the United States.     

Expectations,Rivalries, and Civil War Duration

This paper criticizes the status quo position in African politics on two accounts. First it furthered the consolidation of the state system, and thereby, the failure of integration on the continental level. Second, it resulted in the spread and escalation of ethnic conflicts as a reaction to the suppression of the aspirations for independent expression and equality.

At one level, explaining ethnic conflict requires the reconstruction, in terms of a theory, of the specific context in which it occurs. In this regard, we suggest that ethnic conflicts in Africa are an outgrowth of the consideration that ethnicity constitutes the dominant mode of political practice akin to the state system of dependent, nurture capitalism. Four conditions determine the conflictive potentialities of the ethnic situation: communalization of political practice, catastrophic balance between ethnic groups, economic and political inequalities, and articulation of class conflict and ethnic organization.

Conflict and integration processes are grounded in the dynamics of identity formation. Our hypothesis is that identity formation is contingent on four elements: a) maximum structured relations; b) minimum differentiation; c) maximum ideological interpellation; and d) maximum unity of labor processes. By projecting these conditions on African politics, we advance the thesis that integration in Africa could be worked out as a mode of ethnic conflict resolution and prevention if, in addition to the progressive substantiation of the four elements mentioned above, it takes place on the continental level.     

Democracy,Deception, and Entry into War

Realists propose that elected leaders that seek war but face a hesitant public may use deception to build public support for war. Leaders may secretly make provocative diplomatic or military moves to push the adversary to attack first, rallying the public behind a war effort seen as defensive, or publicly exaggerate the threat posed by the adversary. This paper develops a liberal institutionalist critique of this theory, positing that elected leaders are deterred from engaging in such deception because democratic political institutions such as political competition, a professionalized military, and the marketplace of ideas increase the likelihood that such moves will be exposed, and once exposed, deceptive politicians will suffer domestic political punishment. The paper examines the thesis that Franklin Roosevelt sought to provoke Germany and Japan to war in 1941, finding little support. It also finds that in general autocratic leaders are more likely than elected leaders to deceive.