奥巴桑乔喜中有忧的大选结局--2003年尼日利亚大选述评

作为对尼日利亚脆弱民主制度的一次重大考验 ,2 0 0 3年的大选终于在人们的忐忑不安中落下了帷幕 ,这表明尼日利亚在朝民主化的道路又迈出了艰难的一步。奥巴桑乔蝉联总统 ,并在 5月 2 9日如期举行了就职仪式 ,但由于以布哈里为首的反对派和一些国际舆论对大选结果的抵制与质疑 ,新政府出现了合法性危机。奥巴桑乔依然面临总统选举获胜被法庭裁定无效的可能性。如何和平解决此次大选引发的政治危机、消除政党间的分歧以及尽快复兴经济 ,成为尼日利亚奥巴桑乔新一届政府面临的迫在眉睫的问题     

新世纪、新总统、新挑战:卢武铉当选韩国总统析

韩国第16届总统选举已落下帷幕,新千年民主党总统候选人卢武铉当选为新一届总统。本文拟分析卢武铉是怎样击败他的竞争对手李会昌而登上总统宝座以及他当选总统之后将采取什么样的政策等问题。     

The 2016 Election and Prospects for Taiwan's Democracy

This article reviews the results of the 2016 presidential and legislative elections in Taiwan, in which the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won a sweeping victory. It identifies the likely reasons for the DPP's success and then explores the implications of the outcome for Taiwan's political future, relations with Mainland China, and relations with the United States.     

The Transformation of Security Planning for the Olympics: The 1976 Montreal Games

Montreal's Summer Olympics in 1976 was a turning point in Olympic history: it was the Games' first highly visible security operation. It was also a transformative moment in the history of security planning in Canada: preparations for the games contributed to shifting the Security Services' focus from communism towards domestic and international terrorism. The following article documents, for the first time, the scope of this operation. It is based on five years of requests and appeals under the federal Access to Information Act, which led to the release of over fifty thousand pages of Royal Canadian Mounted Police documents. I argue that security for the Montreal Olympics was based largely on imagined threats. In addition, I argue that security costs for the Montreal Olympics were high but modest as compared to the overall budget. Nonetheless, Montreal set a precedent for high security costs that have since become the standard for hosting the Olympics. Finally, I argue that the Montreal Olympics had long-term implications for policing in Canada. The scale of the operation produced new resources and inter-agency links that were only made possible as a result of hosting the games.     

奥巴马大选获胜的原因及其政治影响

2008年11月5日,美国迎来历史性时刻——民主党候选人贝拉克·奥巴马击败共和党候选人麦凯恩,当选为首位美国黑人总统。奥巴马胜出既有自身原因,更是美国两党政治搏弈的结果,这将对美国政治生活带来巨大而深远的影响。     

主权是发展中国家的最后一道屏障

人权与主权之间的关系日益成为冷战结束后国际上激烈争论的焦点。阿尔及利亚总统布特弗利卡代表非洲国家在1999年9月22日第54届联合国大会上抨击以维护人权的名义干涉他国内部冲突的倾向。布特弗利卡强调,非洲国家“对自己的主权遭到任何损害仍然极为敏感”,主权是非洲国家“防止出现不平等世界秩序的最后防线”。这个讲话充分反映出发展中国家与发达国家在如何看待主权与人权之间的关系上存在不同的处境、看法和立场。发展中国家对人权与主权之间关系的争端之所以极其重视,因为这是涉及到他们根本利益的大事。　　从常理上来讲,人权与…     

考验宪政体制的南非第四次民主大选

2009年4月,南非废除种族隔离制度后的第四次大选,是对南非运行15年新宪政体制的考验.由于执政党(非国大)内部权力斗争导致的分裂,及全球性金融危机对南非经济的影响,使这次大选的不确定性因素增多,选民对南非未来政治、经济发展的关注程度上升.大选的过程和结果显示,南非民主宪政制度有稳定的基础.竞选过程中进行的全国范围、多种形式的政策辩论,是对南非发展道路的集体反思和探讨,使南非未来发展的方向更加清晰.祖马新一届政府面临兑现承诺的巨大压力,同时面临反对党更具挑战性的监督和制衡,保持宪政制度正常运行的前景看好.     

大选后的岸田文雄内阁:执政基础与政策取向

日本岸田文雄内阁的诞生,是执政的自民党为应对大选而"临阵换帅"的结果。执政联盟利用广大选民对新内阁的"政策期待",加之国内疫情趋缓、在野党势力孱弱以及选举对策缜密,从而赢得了大选。大选后岸田内阁的执政基础虽暂且趋稳,但在权力交接、路线调整及国政选举等层面上仍面临诸多严峻挑战,其政治稳定性不容乐观,实现长期执政的难度较大。随着岸田内阁施政渐次展开,其在防控疫情、强化日美同盟与推进印太战略上将保持较强的政策延续性,而在经济增长方式与国家安全保障上将实施政策调整。岸田内阁提出构筑"建设性且稳定的中日关系"并奉行现实主义对华外交方针,但其对外政策取向仍将保持涉华指向明显的惯性,经济安全保障、"人权外交"等政策主张或将加大中日关系摩擦几率。     

苏丹大选与中东政治民主化

2010年4月,苏丹成功地进行了全国大选,之后面临着如何避免南方分裂、达尔富尔问题、保持经济稳定发展和西方国家的压力等一系列挑战。由于诸多制约因素,中东政治民主化进程命运多舛。美国等西方国家曾试图按照自己的方式推进中东民主,但却事与愿违。从中东的现实来看,适度权威仍是不可或缺的,有其积极的社会历史意义。必须指出的是,尽管现实发展过程中尚有诸多不尽人意之处,但中东国家政治发展已经在向政治民主化过渡,而不是相反。     

The US Election in 2024 and the Trend of the Ukraine Crisis

The crisis in Ukraine,which has dragged on for more than two years,and whether military aid to Ukraine should continue are major issues debated and fought over by the two parties in the United States prior to the 2024 election.Regarding whether to continue to aid Ukraine,various political forces in the United States have chosen sides in the election campaign,which can be roughly divided into the\"aid camp\"and the\"stop-aid camp\"according to their positions.     

伊朗外交：宗教领袖与总统的作用

1979年伊斯兰革命后伊朗建立了神权性质的共和国，宗教领袖由此走上了政治前台。不管是霍梅尼还是哈梅内伊，宗教领袖对总统在外交方面的制约都是非常强的。今后改革派和保守派的斗争将会继续下去，改革派总统哈塔米想在外交上突破伊斯兰革命所设定的框架，必会受到宗教领袖的钳制，难以取得成功。     

美国干涉与老挝1955年选举

根据1954年日内瓦会议协议,老挝于1955年将进行全民选举。美国将老挝视为在印度支那地区防范共产党势力发展的重要阵地。为使老挝新政府成为一个亲西方的反共政府,投入了大量的人力和物力。美国在将老挝纳入其冷战轨道的同时,也破坏了老挝的独立与发展。     

大选与菲律宾内政及外交走向

5月10日是菲律宾总统大选日,约有75％的选民参加了选举。由于菲律宾采取的是人工计票方式,因此大选结果几个星期后才能见分晓。在参选的五位总统候选人中,真正有实力问鼎总统宝座的是联盟候选人、现任总统阿罗约和反对派候选人、影帝费尔南多·普欧。选举当天,菲“社会气象站”组织的出口民调显示,阿罗约的支持率为40.84％,普欧只有32.26％。阿罗约极有可能在以后六年里继续领导菲律宾。 普欧的排名曾一直高居民调榜首,但随着大选的临近,他逐渐失去了选民的支持。与普欧相反,阿     

Red Dawn is Now: Race vs. Nation and the American Election

This article details the long-standing struggle within the American far right between those whose mission it is to resist the perceived subversion of international communism and its neo-Soviet successors now in power in the Kremlin and those whose mission is dedicated to preserving the White Race from the twin threats of miscegenation and marginalization from the corridors of power. Using the metaphor of the 1984 low-budget spectacular Red Dawn and noting the current pattern of Russian interference in the election and contacts with the Trump campaign, it traces the struggle from the ascendancy of anti-communism in the 1950s and 1960s to the current triumph of the race warriors and conspiracy theorists who championed the candidacy of Donald Trump. “Red Dawn Is Now” concludes with the observation that, for those who most fear foreign subversion, the revelations about Russian penwetration of the American election process and the Trump presidency represents a 21st-century version of the Soviet occupation that the young patriots of Red Dawn fame successfully repelled. If this is so, it suggests the possibility that Thomas Jefferson's observation that “the tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots & tyrants” may be prophetic and that the fifth wave of terrorism might at long last be at hand.     

For the Present and the Future: The Well-Conceived,Successful, and Farsighted Statecraft of President Theodore Roosevelt

“It is difficult to escape the conclusion,” this historian has claimed in previous writings, “that in the foreign policy arena [Theodore] Roosevelt was probably the greatest of all US presidents.” Such a laudatory interpretation is built on an assessment of both the record achieved by Rooseveltian diplomacy during the years of Roosevelt's presidency and the long-term significance of TR's statecraft. In its own time Roosevelt's foreign policy success grew out of a sophisticated understanding of a complex international environment, a well-conceived perspective on America's interests within that environment, and a multitude of attributes in the realm of execution that usually enabled Roosevelt, even in the most challenging cases, to attain the results he was seeking. As to its long-range importance, Rooseveltian statecraft was anchored to three precepts that might be labeled the “precept of broadly defined US interests,” the “precept of US power,” and the “precept of Anglo-American leadership.” By conducting a foreign policy grounded on these precepts, Roosevelt – certainly well ahead of the great majority of his contemporaries – anticipated the type of foreign policy approach that would become and has remained the foundation for the practice of statecraft by many Republican and Democratic presidents and their most influential advisers from 1939 to the present day.     

中期选举对美内外政策和中美关系的影响

11月2日美国中期选举结束后,计票结果显示,共和党以绝对优势重新掌控众议院,民主党则以微弱多数勉强保住参议院过半席位,形成国会两院分治的新局面。此次选举民主党惨败有多重原因。未来两年,奥巴马为力争2012年连任,可能选择走“中左”路线,其内外政策会有所调整,中关关系也面临一些新变数。     

The Transformation of Going Public: President Clinton,the First Lady,and Health Care Reform

This article examines the going public thesis in the context of U.S. President Clintons health care reform campaign in 1993 and 1994. This case study highlights the changing nature of presidential public relations. The novel use of the first lady as a public spokesperson for a presidential initiative also raises new questions about presidential public relations and its impact on congressional behavior. Data for the study include appearances and speeches by the president and first lady concerning health care reform over an 11-month period. Results suggest that certain presidential public activities assist presidents in gaining public support for their policies. However, most presidential public efforts may be thwarted by issue advertising from opponents in a more combative public environment. A going public strategy may not provide a forum to explain sophisticated policies and to build alliances in support of these policies over a substantial period of time.