资本主义与新兴世界秩序

西方长达两个世纪之久的霸权正在走向终结,曾经推动西方崛起的现代化革命,如今已惠及所有国家。因此,19世纪发展起来并为中心——边缘世界秩序（core-periphery international order）奠定了基础的国家间实力差距（power gap）正在缩小。这一变化带来的结果是世界由有中心的全球体系（centred globalism）向去中心的全球体系（decentred globalism）转变。与此同时,当权力变得越来越分散的同时,主要国家之间意识形态上的分歧程度也正在缩小。事实上,当代世界中所有大国在某种形式上走的都是资本主义道路,在兴起中的世界新秩序中,意识形态上的差异比它在过去一个世纪里所呈现的要小得多。问题是：意识形态上的相对同质性是否将在四种主要的资本主义国家治理类型（自由民主主义体制、社会民主主义体制、竞争性威权主义体制和国家官僚主义体制）中引起地缘经济或者地缘政治上的竞争？民主主义与威权主义类型的资本主义之间政治上的分歧是否会超越它们之间的共同利益？还是它们之间存在的共同利益消弭了彼此的分歧？当代世界会出现像20世纪初那种不同类型而互为冲突的资本主义模式吗？或者会产生某种形式的“协和资本主义”？在未来一段时间里,我们很有可能仍然会处在一个政治上分化的多种类型的资本主义世界。由此,对于决策者来说所面临的重要任务就是要确保地缘经济竞争将不会导致地缘政治冲突的发生。     

西方保守主义的世界战略--《国家战略:应对变化中的世界》介评

20 0 1年 9月 11日是“世界改变的日子”。之后 ,世界进入了“后后冷战时代”、“恐怖主义时代”或“美国单极时代”。①无论战略家和学者为这个“新时期”冠以何种名称 ,总之世界的演进已经步入一个新的历史阶段。如何应对这种变化 ?英国前首相撒切尔夫人的新作《国家战略 :应对变化中的世界》②一书 ,从西方国家战略的角度回答了这个重大问题。作者以世界知名政治家的战略眼光总结了冷战的历史经验 ,阐述了美国的特殊地位及其作用 ,审视欧盟、俄罗斯、中国、印度等国或国家集团的发展及其影响 ,分析了所谓的“无赖国家”、伊斯兰极端主义…     

"和谐世界":国际秩序的新构想和新范式

“和谐世界”国际秩序观的提出是国际秩序理论发展中的一次重要理论创新。它由安全、发展、和谐三个关键概念所组成,关注三个层次不断递进的目标,即通过共同安全实现持久和平稳定,创设国际秩序有序运行的基本条件;通过共同发展和共同繁荣既满足世界各国的发展利益需求,又促进全球安全威胁根源的消除,为国际秩序的有序运行提供保障;通过开放包容实现不同文明和谐相处,共同进步,实现国际秩序的公正与合理。“和谐世界”所提出的目标和新观念,以及解决国际秩序建设中安全困境问题、国际秩序的持久和平稳定问题以及国际秩序的公正与合理问题等三大难题的思路,已经使它超越了西方国际秩序理论,成为一种崭新的国际秩序构想和范式。     

后西方世界秩序下的核武器与核威慑

全球国际社会正处于一个关键的变化时期。长期以来占主导地位的西方秩序在如下几个方面面临包围:霸权分散、全球资本主义危机日益加重、全球共同面临恐怖主义、大规模移民以及环境变化等带来的各种威胁。英国脱欧、特朗普当选美国总统这些事件表明,作为世界秩序核心的英语世界,已失去其主导力量。目前的发展格局将朝着多元化的后西方世界秩序发展。在此秩序下,没有超级大国,只有大国,并且这些大国大多比较自我封闭,因此,并不存在真正意义上的争夺全球霸权的现象。文化差异将比意识形态差异更为重要。文章首先将这一秩序的轮廓做一大致勾勒,然后探讨这一秩序对未来几十年核武器与核威慑所要扮演的角色来说将意味着什么。最为关注的着眼点是,全球格局从全球层面向区域层面的转变以及复杂的核扩散与核威慑态势。     

Anglo-French Imperial Relations in the Arab World: Intelligence Liaison and Nationalist Disorder, 1920-1939

Faced with intractable problems of popular protest and nationalist insurgency, French and British imperial administrations across the Arab world frequently exchanged various forms of covert intelligence with one another. Much of this information was open source human intelligence relating to local political activity. Higher grade material, and particularly signals intelligence was less regularly shared, not least as the Entente partners continued to spy on each other throughout the inter-war years. Ironically, while the French and British colonial security services shared similar pre-occupations and objectives, their common threat perceptions were not enough to break down the abiding mutual suspicions between them. As a result, their networks of information exchange remained patchy. This only made the tasks of imperial government and the containment of disorder harder than might otherwise have been the case.     

关于未来世界秩序的几个关键问题

世界秩序问题是根本性、中心性的国际问题.当代世界秩序正在经历深刻的转变.本文就当前世界秩序争论中的几个关键问题进行了讨论.中国学者的重大日程是世界秩序研究:对驱动世界秩序(经济、政治)演化的主要因素做出评估,对未来的世界秩序进行理论和实践上的多样探索.     

Assessing civil society impact for democracy programmes: Using an advocacy scale in Indonesia and the Philippines

Democracy assistance programmes have always been notoriously difficult to measure in terms of outcome, but the need to show their impact (or lack of it) remains critical. This article represents part of a continuing endeavour to develop a tool for measuring civil society programme impact in the form of an advocacy scale encompassing democracy's critical components of participation, accountability and contestation. The scale is tested in the context of USAID-assisted initiatives in the Philippines and Indonesia, where it demonstrates a capacity both to monitor donor assistance outcomes and to suggest future programme initiatives.     

Commercial Diplomacy and Statecraft in the Context of Economic Reform: The Indian Experience

It is almost a decade since India began its economic reforms. Apart from the purely domestic economic objectives that the reforms were expected to achieve, there was a recognition that reform was imperative if India wanted to become an economic power of consequence within and beyond its region. This had important foreign policy implications. Official pronouncements reflected the concern that the balance of fiscal power as opposed to military power was the key factor in determining a country's international standing. This called for an integrated strategy to bring economic and foreign policies closer. The implementation of a vigorous foreign economic policy could not be undertaken without sharpening the commercial diplomatic tool. Indian foreign policy over the last decade has been grappling with this challenge. This article analyses the reorientation in Indian foreign policy, assesses the efforts undertaken so far to make commercial diplomacy viable and highlights the challenges that multi-layered diplomacy poses for a country like India.     

宏观视野微观透析——"世界历史视野下的中东现代化进程"学术研讨会综述

2006年7月28～31日,由中国中东学会主办、中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所和内蒙古民族大学世界史研究所承办的中国中东学会2006年年会暨“世界历史视野下的中东现代化进程”学术研讨会,在塞外草原新城通辽举行。与会的35位专家学者分别来自中国社会科学院西亚非洲所、世界历史研究所、中国现代国际关系研究院亚非研究所、新华社世界形势研究中心、外交学院国际关系研究所、上海社会科学院欧亚研究所、上海国际问题研究所、西北大学中东研究所、云南大学国际关系学院、南京大学历史文化学院、厦门大学公共事务学院、西南大学历史文化学院、重…     

Commercial Diplomacy and Statecraft in the Context of Economic Reform: The Indian Experience

It is almost a decade since India began its economic reforms. Apart from the purely domestic economic objectives that the reforms were expected to achieve, there was a recognition that reform was imperative if India wanted to become an economic power of consequence within and beyond its region. This had important foreign policy implications. Official pronouncements reflected the concern that the balance of fiscal power as opposed to military power was the key factor in determining a country's international standing. This called for an integrated strategy to bring economic and foreign policies closer. The implementation of a vigorous foreign economic policy could not be undertaken without sharpening the commercial diplomatic tool. Indian foreign policy over the last decade has been grappling with this challenge. This article analyses the reorientation in Indian foreign policy, assesses the efforts undertaken so far to make commercial diplomacy viable and highlights the challenges that multi-layered diplomacy poses for a country like India.     

Transatlantic cooperation on terrorism and Islamist radicalisation in Africa: the Franco-American axis

Transatlantic cooperation on security has a long history. In Africa, transatlantic cooperation on security is basically between France and the United States. This paper asks why the two former competitors in Africa started to cooperate and also why they are so willing to engage militarily. The central argument in this paper poses that France and the US cooperate because it is indispensable to both parties. To France, the cooperation is indispensable because the US is the only power with sufficient financial means and with sufficient air-lift capacity to transport French and African troops into conflict-ridden countries. To Washington, cooperation with Paris is indispensable because the French authorities have unique access to intelligence and knowledge about large parts of Africa. By applying a foreign policy analysis framework, the paper analyses how perceptions of decision-makers, the role of personality and leadership, the role of government institutions and political systems have impacted the relevant decisions. It is emphasised that the two different decision-making systems – the French “state dominated” and the American “society dominated” – produce the same result, namely collaboration. It suggests that the perception of a serious threat from terrorism and Islamist radicalisation overrules differences in decision-making systems.     

Transatlantic investor protection as a threat to democracy: the potency and limits of an emotive frame*

Abstract

A campaign by civil society organizations (CSOs) turned a relatively obscure area of international economic law—investor–state dispute settlement (ISDS)—into the focus of opposition to the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and later the European Union (EU)–Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). This article analyses how CSOs impacted on the EU’s position, while highlighting the limitations of their influence. Combining insights from constructivist International Political Economy literature with scholarship emphasizing the importance of emotions in advocacy framing, I contend that CSOs were able to create a polysemic ‘injustice frame’. The characterization of transatlantic ISDS as a threat to democracy and the rule of law aroused anger, while being ambiguous enough to garner widespread support. The ambiguity of CSOs’ advocacy frame and the concreteness of its target, however, were also the frame’s Achilles heel. These aspects provided space for the European Commission to reform a specific element of the agreement and thereby repair the latter’s overall legitimacy. The Commission’s counter-frame emphasized the reform’s democratic credentials by representing TTIP as an opportunity to move ISDS towards a system of ‘public law’. While this reframing failed to satisfy most opposition, it placated pivotal actors and allowed the Commission to move forward.     

世界能源秩序转型背景下的中拉能源合作?——新秩序、新角色与新篇章

当前,全球能源贸易结构、消费结构、地缘政治结构剧烈变化,催生着世界能源秩序的加速转型。其中中国崛起成为世界能源秩序转型的核心变量之一,从区域、国家、企业等层次分析,中国凭借其独特优势与行为特点在世界能源秩序中扮演着新角色。与此同时,拉美地区对世界能源秩序转型进程产生的影响也日益增强。中拉能源合作从顶层设计、实际合作、替代效应等领域都已揭开新篇章,展现出更好的前景与活力。中国与拉美是塑造世界能源新秩序的重要角色,中拉合作正日益成为构建世界能源新秩序的重要基石。     

解放神学在菲律宾：处境化与回应

解放神学是20世纪60年代诞生于拉丁美洲的一种基督教社会主义思潮,自诞生以来,对亚洲、非洲等第三世界国家天主教会的神学思想转变与社会实践带来巨大影响。一方面,解放神学直接推动第三世界国家的天主教会关注穷人的困境与国家的政治经济问题,探索穷人获得解放的途径;另一方面,解放神学不可避免地面临处境化与本土化的适应与挑战。菲律宾作为亚洲重要的天主教国家,菲律宾的天主教会在解放神学的影响下,积极探索解放神学对菲律宾社会的适应,对解放神学理论做出了新的阐释与发展,不仅极大地丰富了解放神学的理论,而且积极地推动了解放神学在亚洲社会的实践,对当代菲律宾的社会政治运动产生了深远影响。     

印度锡克教徒在菲律宾的历史与现状

来自印度的锡克教徒移民菲律宾已有百余年的历史。随着一批又一批移民的到来,菲律宾锡克教徒不断增多,锡克教徒群体在形成的同时,锡克教在菲律宾传播开来。他们在菲律宾主要经营商业,以求扎根于当地;还进行各种宗教活动,以传播和继承锡克教文化。但在与印度家乡宗教与文化都截然不同的天主教国家里,锡克教徒作出了一定的调适,以缩小与当地主体民族之间的文化鸿沟。     

菲南和平进程的回顾与思考

为了和平解决菲南穆斯林分离主义问题，菲律宾政府与穆斯林反政府武装“摩洛民族解放阵线”先后签署两个和平协议，与“摩洛伊斯兰解放阵线”也进行了长时间的和平谈判，但仍未实现菲南的和平。原因在于菲律宾政府与穆斯林组织在实现和平的目标方面存在重大分歧；双方已签署的和平协议未能成功实施，削弱了人们对和平进程的信心；此外，也未能形成一个达成和实施和平协议的有利环境。