Let someone else do the job: American policy on the eve of the six day war

The closure of the straits on 23 May 1927 placed the Johnson administration in an impossible position. Publicly committed to maintaining the freedom of passage through the straits, its own freedom of action was limited the congress, who insisted that it act only with some form of an international framework. It was obvious that unless something were to be done to open the straits and secure free passage for the Israeli ships, war was inevitable. In the first week, after the closure of the straits, the American administration made efforts to find ways to resolve the crisis, and especially in establishing a naval task force to breach the blockade. At the end of May it realized that there was no practical plan to end the blockade. Accordingly, it reconciled to the prospect of an independent Israeli action to open the straits.     

Die bydrae van José Ortega y Gasset tot die massakommunikasieteorie: die onderliggende aannames en begrippe van sy generasieteorie

SUMMARY

Vrye Weekblad was closed down on 28 May 1993. This signalled the end of an important era of the Afrikaans press. Political changes and financial problems contributed to the closure of VWB. VWB has since been revived in the form of a fortnightly news magazine. The first edition with the same name, Vrye Weekblad, was published on 24 June 1993. Editorial policy is similar to that of its predecessor.

This article reflects on and assesses the significance that can be attached to the publication and closure of an alternative Afrikaans weekly. VWB's original launch, development, editorial policy and the problems it encountered are sketched against the background of South African society and the press industry. In conclusion, the role played by VWB as a newspaper is assessed.     

美日共同开发并部署TMD对东北亚地区安全构成威胁

冷战结束后 ,国际形势趋向缓和 ,和平与发展成为世界主流。然而 ,美日两国却决定搞战区导弹防御系统共同开发研究直至最后部署 ,对世界和平、特别是东北亚地区安全构成威胁。主要表现为 :( 1 )破坏了东北亚地区国际战略平衡 ,造成了该地区政治形势动荡不安 ;( 2 )引发新的军备竞赛 ;( 3)增大了日本走军事大国之路的危险性 ;( 4 )进一步加剧了朝鲜半岛的紧张局势 ;( 5)如把中国台湾省也拉入其中 ,将激化中国台湾省与大陆间的矛盾 ,使台海局势复杂化。     

Ballots,Bargains, and Bombs: Terrorist Targeting of Spoiler Opportunities

Benjamin Netanyahu's come-from-behind victory over Shimon Peres in the Israeli national elections of May 1996, following an apparent intensification of Palestinian terrorism over the course of that spring, reminded observers of the political ramifications of terrorism. Since May 1996 was also the month in which Israel reentered Final Status negotiations with a Palestinian delegation in Taba, Egypt, the timing of this surge in violence encourages us to ask if terrorists regularly conceive of elections and rounds of negotiations as “spoiler opportunities,” or opportune times to undermine peaceful political processes. We address this question in the context of Israel's long‐running experience with elections, negotiations, and terrorism. We hypothesize that attacks resulting in fatalities are likely to increase in periods immediately surrounding Israeli general elections and key rounds of negotiations affecting the fate of the Palestinian population. Negative binomial event count analyses of the period 1970–2007 suggest that violent opponents indeed viewed the periods preceding negotiations and the ends of electoral cycles as “spoiler opportunities.”     

Woodrow Wilson’s Neutrality,the Freedom of the Seas,and the Myth of the “Civil War Precedents”

This analysis shows the importance of a problem of maritime law in an on-going debate between two interpretations of Wilsonian neutrality that have competed in various guises since the end of the First World War: can British blockade actions in that war be justified by American Civil War precedents? It proves that reliance on the “Civil War precedents” to justify Britain’s blockade measures was disingenuous from the beginning. British diplomats first used it in October 1914, and Woodrow Wilson embraced it to defend his mild response to British violations of neutral rights to incensed American citizens despite continuous protests from the State Department. Whilst all politicians involved knew the comparison was wrong, historians have embraced it as a justification of Britain’s illegal blockade ever since Arthur S. Link claimed it as the key to understanding Wilson’s neutrality policy.     

大选年、大辩论、大变革——美国对外政策回顾与展望

奥巴马在布什政府对外政策使美国深陷战略困境、美国经济濒临衰退边缘、选民普遍思变的情势下高票当选美国总统。美国大选年历来也是美国共和、民主两党及战略研究界围绕美国政府内外政策展开的辩论年。作为2008年美国大选年和大辩论的结果奥巴马入主白宫,必将对美现行外交政策进行大变革。总的趋势将是：从单边主义走向多边合作,从先发制人和滥用武力趋向谈判对话与和平磋商。     

Framing Peace Policies: The Competition for Resonant Themes

Political organizations make use of culturally resonant symbols to bring their message to the public. In response to a political organization's use of a culturally resonant symbol, competing political organizations attack the connection between that organization's message and the symbol. Rochon and Wolfsfeld propose a process for the movement of policy justification symbols from interest groups and social movements to governments. This article examines this process in the context of the struggle among the Israeli nationalist movement, the Israeli peace movement, and the Israeli government, identifying a typology of tactical frames applicable to research beyond the Israeli context: denial, incorporation, and end run. Press releases by these political competitors show a specialization of tactical frames by social organization. Nationalists prefer to deny the validity of competing resonant symbols. Peace activists prefer to invent or search for new symbols, in an end run. Governments tend to absorb and redirect symbols initially used by the competing movements to justify government actions. An analysis of the political opportunity structures and organizational conditions that determine a political organization's tactics for attacking resonant frames is conducted.     

U.S. Military Fatalities in Iraq in Perspective: Year 4

As year five begins, the prospects for a successful conclusion of the Iraq war - one that would repair the deep seated and deadly animosities throughout civil society, establish a foundation for a sustainable democratic government, and stop the inexorable climb of U.S. fatalities above 3,000 and of total casualties toward 30,000 and beyond - are remote. The U.S. is embroiled in a conflict in three dimensions, military political and civil, that defies solution. Our military and its leaders have tended to underestimate the enemy and engage it half-heartedly, while the insurgents have retained freedom of action and repeatedly seized the initiative. The fourth dimension, the battle for Iraqi hearts and minds, essential for bringing hostilities to an end, has not even begun.     

From Jerusalem to Baghdad? Israel and the War in Iraq

The prevailing opinion that the Bush administration took the United States to war against Iraq in March 2003 under false pretenses has led many to believe that Israel's security was the secret rationale for the war. According to this "war for Israel" thesis, neoconservative policymakers in the Bush administration, the pro-Israel lobby in the United States, and Israel's government all pushed the United States to go to war with Iraq for the sake of Israel's security. This article critically assesses this controversial claim and examines Israel's role in the U.S. decision to invade Iraq. I argued that while neoconservatives were instrumental in promoting the Iraq war, Israel was not their primary concern and that although American Jewish organizations and the Israeli government did largely support the Iraq war, they did not seek it or actively lobby for it.     

Debating Palestinian strategy in the al-Aqsa intifada

Violent confrontation broke out between Israel and the Palestinians in late September 2000. The precursors were clear, and neither side expressed surprise at the turn of events. The situation was one of asymmetry and contiguity between the two sides: modes of control exercised by Israel included the stationing of Israeli troops deep within areas of Palestinian rule and the encirclement of Palestinian cities by Israeli army bases. This article asks whether, in light of this situation, the Palestinian leadership and other Palestinian groups at any point developed a clear strategy for military action, and examines the consequences of any strategy, or lack of one, for the outcome of the confrontation.     

The Arabs in Israel: Identity,criminality and the peace process

The basic datum that criminality among the Palestinian Arabs of Israel is nearly double the average among the population in general begs some hard questions and answers. It is suggested here that, besides the regular crimes endemic in Israeli society of which Arabs and Jews alike partake, there is a category of criminal activity that is peculiar to the Arabs, under the heading of ‘ideological’, namely nationalistically and/or religiously induced. It is suggested here that the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians does not necessarily reduce the rate of criminality among Israeli Arabs. Quite the contrary, in some cases it might increase criminal partnerships between Palestinians on both sides of the Green Line divide even when the peace process is alive and kicking; and when it is not, things might even get worse with the Israeli Arabs increasingly identifying with their brethren across the border in their struggle against the right‐wing government of Israel from which they are totally alienated.     

Old (Molotov) cocktails in new bottles? “Price-tag” and settler violence in Israel and the West Bank

In the early morning of July 31, 2015, masked attackers threw firebombs into two Palestinian homes in the West Bank village of Duma, south of Nablus, killing three Palestinian civilians. Contrary to claims by Israeli and Palestinian politicians, this attack was neither an isolated anomaly nor just another incident of settler violence. Instead, it was the latest attack in an important but largely unknown phenomenon called “price-tag,” in which a loosely connected group of young Israelis called “hilltop youth” burn Palestinian mosques and destroy property in hundreds of attacks accompanied by threatening graffiti that references Israeli settlers, outposts, and anti-Arab slogans. Using an original dataset of price-tag incidents and interviews with key actors, we demonstrate that the perpetrators, targets, and strategies of price-tag are different than previous patterns of settler violence. Whereas previous settlers saw the Israeli state as legitimate and largely decided to cooperate with it, the hilltop youth have decided to confront it by using price-tag attacks to deter settlement withdrawals and chain-gang the state into a conflict with the Palestinians. This analysis of the strategic logic of price-tag reveals its potential to shift the political landscape within and between Israelis and Palestinians.     

Brexit populism and fantasies of fulfilment

Abstract

For Leave voters the Brexit referendum of 23 June 2016 was invested with hopes and dreams, of refound sovereignty and control, freedom and liberty, subjectivity and agency. Brexit was an opportunity for both new beginnings and a reclamation of British essences. Winning, however, has not provided the closure promised, and today Leave supporters often appear decidedly anxious and angry. Bringing together literature on ontological security with Lacanian understandings of the (always incomplete) nature of subjectivity, this paper provides an explanation of how it is that ’Brexit’ became invested with such high hopes of fulfilment, but also why the populist ’fantasies’ underpinning Brexit have inevitably fallen short. However, while closure around ontological security and subjectivity is impossible, the paper shows how the promise of fulfilment (and its inevitable failure) can be politically seductive and mobilizing, is a central strategy of populist politics, but as such is also one that is only likely to exacerbate the ontological anxieties and insecurities upon which populist politics preys.     

American military presence in Europe

Despite the efforts put into negotiations, they have created a self-perpetuating cycle of disappointment, frustration and empty dialogue. With contradictory Palestinian and Israeli agendas – Palestinians negotiating for an independent state, an end to occupation, etc., and Israel negotiating primarily over security concerns – one must question the reason behind prolonged negotiations. Is US mediation, accused by many of extreme bias towards Israel, to blame? Or are negotiations an Israeli objective to execute a particular political agenda? In spite of the international community's recognition of establishing an independent Palestinian state, the current reality on the ground undermines any creation of one. This reality was allowed only by the strategic prolonging of negotiations. A particular focus on the proceedings following the Oslo Accords explains how Palestinian--Israeli negotiations have been used to pursue a specific objective.     

明清之际闽文化在台湾的传播和发展

由于血缘和地缘的亲近,闽文化和台湾文化从总体上来说属于同一区域文化体系,都以闽方言为主要载体。由生活在闽、台两地的人民共同创造的文化类型,极富区域文化特色。本文以明清之际闽文化在台湾的传播、发展情况为切入点,探讨闽文化和台湾文化的同根同源性。     

试析奥巴马政府亚太战略

奥巴马政府调整美国亚太战略,将美国全球战略和军事战略的重点转向东亚地区。其主要特点：一是高调宣示＂重返亚洲＂;二是通过加强与盟友关系和建立加入多边组织以强化美国在亚太地区的领导地位;三是加强美国在东亚和西太平洋地区的军事存在;四是争取区域经济合作的主导权;五是在地缘战略上以南海问题形成联盟。奥巴马政府亚太战略将受到经济上力不从心、以军事力量为主要手段支撑其亚太领导地位作用有限等因素的制约。但奥巴马政府调整美国亚太战略将使东亚地区特别是南海地区形势更加复杂化。     

Is Unilateralism Always Bad? Negotiation Lessons from Israel's “Unilateral” Gaza Withdrawal

Using the 2005 unilateral Israeli withdrawal from Gaza as a case study, this article exposes an apparent paradox: circumstances may exist in which an outcome that serves the interests of parties to a conflict cannot be achieved through bilateral negotiation but can be achieved by unilateral action. Although the withdrawal was seen at the time as serving the interests of both the Israeli government and the Palestinians, we argue that the same result could not have been achieved through bilateral negotiations. “Behind‐the‐table” internal conflicts on each side would have made it impossible for the leaders to agree on the scope of these negotiations. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's success in implementing his Gaza withdrawal was attributable in significant measure to his ability to maintain ambiguity about his long‐run plans for the West Bank. Only by focusing attention on Gaza was he able to build the necessary coalition to implement the controversial move. The Palestinian leaders, on the other hand, could never have agreed to come to the table to negotiate about Gaza alone — they would have insisted that the scope of any negotiations address a broad range of final status issues. In this article, we identify some of the lessons that the Gaza example teaches regarding the utility and limits of unilateralism as well as the benefits and potential costs of employing ambiguity as a strategy to help accomplish a controversial move. Finally, we also explore the aftermath of the withdrawal and its many missed opportunities for improving the outcome. We suggest that, even when acting unilaterally, leaders should carefully consider the probable impact of their actions on the internal conflicts of their adversaries.     

Untangling global-local linkages: The case of the Right to Information Act in India

ABSTRACT

Transparency laws have proliferated worldwide: between 1990 and 2010, 76 countries promulgated laws or ordinances on the freedom or right to information. By examining the domestic and global processes involved in the passage of the Right to Information Act, 2005 (RTIA) in India, this article locates the global trend within the local context. It argues that the RTIA signifies institutional change because it replaced the norm of secrecy—nested and perpetuated within the Indian state since colonial times—with the norm of openness. But was this change a result of an endogenous process, or did exogenous factors—such as the global policy stimulus toward transparency and accountability or the “good governance” agenda of international financial institutions—play an instrumental role? The existing scholarly literature argues that international influence was “marginal” and the process of institutional change was largely “homegrown.” By considering historical archival material and internal government documents, this article attempts to unravel the process of norm diffusion from the global to the local and to determine how much exogenous factors and global norms affected institutional change in India.     

CEPA对海峡两岸经贸关系的影响

2001年11月,香港特区行政长官董建华在赴京述职期间,正式向中央领导人提出两地建立“类自由贸易区”的构想,并得到支持。鉴于自由贸易区多为国与国之间的互惠安排,在“一国两制”下香港与内地之间的这种商谈的结果只能叫作“内地与香港更紧密经贸关系安排”(CEPACloserEconomicPartnershipArrangement) ,CEPA之名由此而来。CEPA于2003年6月29日由内地与香港双方签定,从2004年1月1日起,273个内地税目涵盖的香港产品,只要符合原产地规则,都可享零关税优惠。另外,也开放管理咨询等17个服务领域,并在2006年之前取消对香港产品的所有关税…